Мысли по рынку
Сейчас биткоин торгуется на отметке 19000. Я зашел на 50 процентов от своего портфеля именно в BTC на отметке 18940.
Если будет перелоу значения 17600, то скорее всего буду заходить еще частью.
Топовая альта перекуплена (ETH, Matic) и есть еще куда падать. Поэтому для меня на данный момент есть смысл покупать только BTC с возможностью усреднения на более низких отметках.
Сейчас биткоин торгуется на отметке 19000. Я зашел на 50 процентов от своего портфеля именно в BTC на отметке 18940.
Если будет перелоу значения 17600, то скорее всего буду заходить еще частью.
Топовая альта перекуплена (ETH, Matic) и есть еще куда падать. Поэтому для меня на данный момент есть смысл покупать только BTC с возможностью усреднения на более низких отметках.
Интересное наблюдение. Крипта никому не нужна, когда происходит нисходящий тренд, а во время всеобщей истерии нужна всем. По факту это значит, что большинство заходит в крипто на высоких ценовых значениях, вместо того, чтобы купить по низким ценам, во время страха.
The unique global financial situation and what role Bitcoin will play here.
The unique global financial situation and what role Bitcoin will play here.
The world economy is in crisis. National currencies become cheaper(Euro/dollar, GBP, JPY).
These are not even the worst examples. There is much worse, the Turkish Lira (TRY), and the Venezuelan Bolivar (the currency has fallen in price by tens of thousands of percent),
all this can happen to the national currencies of all countries. It is the moment when the national currency will cause fear and concern. People start to migrate to other assets.
Many economists predicted during COVID 2019 that real estate would collapse, but real life effect is opposite.
People will go to the assets that do not lose value.
The unique global financial situation and what role Bitcoin will play here.
The world economy is in crisis. National currencies become cheaper(Euro/dollar, GBP, JPY).
These are not even the worst examples. There is much worse, the Turkish Lira (TRY), and the Venezuelan Bolivar (the currency has fallen in price by tens of thousands of percent),
all this can happen to the national currencies of all countries. It is the moment when the national currency will cause fear and concern. People start to migrate to other assets.
Many economists predicted during COVID 2019 that real estate would collapse, but real life effect is opposite.
People will go to the assets that do not lose value.
The Block
The unique global financial situation and what role Bitcoin will play here. The unique global financial situation and what role Bitcoin will play here. The world economy is in crisis. National currencies become cheaper(Euro/dollar, GBP, JPY). These are…
Can BTC be the asset into which money will be transferred?
Yes, bitcoin can become one of those assets where people will pour their money. But if you imagine the top of these assets, BTC is not even in the top five (comodities, property, food)
If people run away from national currencies, then they can start buying bitcoin. Bitcoin is an asset that you can take with you anywhere in the world. And especially now, Crypto assets that you can take with you are very suitable for people.
Yes, bitcoin can become one of those assets where people will pour their money. But if you imagine the top of these assets, BTC is not even in the top five (comodities, property, food)
If people run away from national currencies, then they can start buying bitcoin. Bitcoin is an asset that you can take with you anywhere in the world. And especially now, Crypto assets that you can take with you are very suitable for people.
AVERAGE WEEKLY DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY IN BLOCKCHAINS
According to Messari analytics, the best development activity is Ethereum blockchain. It confirms the changes in any files included in the repository.
The TOP3 blockchains also included Polkadot and Cosmos. We may use these analytics to build our investment portfolio
According to Messari analytics, the best development activity is Ethereum blockchain. It confirms the changes in any files included in the repository.
The TOP3 blockchains also included Polkadot and Cosmos. We may use these analytics to build our investment portfolio
NUPL shows the crowd mood on the market right now. We are under the stage of capitulation. The indicator has already descended to those values that showed that the market was in complete disbelief. People stopped believing in bitcoin itself. But since the indicator is at the bottom, it means there is no interest in it.
It is necessary to look at the structure of this growth to make a conclusion about whether this is a correction or the beginning of a new trend. So far we can see some positive on the market
1. Short Liquidations on the highest level in 15 months
2. Elon Musk and twiter
3. Fresh blood on the market (Aptos)
The correction has a structure different from the driving wave, this one is in three waves, and the impulse is in five
1. Short Liquidations on the highest level in 15 months
2. Elon Musk and twiter
3. Fresh blood on the market (Aptos)
The correction has a structure different from the driving wave, this one is in three waves, and the impulse is in five
Bitcoin is a high-risk asset, investors, against the backdrop of a decline in the SP500 index and an increase in dollar dominance, should have already sold Bitcoin and waited out the storm. But that did not happen.
1. People still believe. Faith is still on the market. Perhaps this is the evolution of the market cycle. People still have crypto.
2. Formation of the image of bitcoin as a reserve asset. It's hard to believe, but maybe now is a great time to start shaping the image of bitcoin in the public mind as an asset that can save people from inflation. Ant this the moment, when national currencies are depreciating due to inflation, that can be played in favor of bitcoin.
1. People still believe. Faith is still on the market. Perhaps this is the evolution of the market cycle. People still have crypto.
2. Formation of the image of bitcoin as a reserve asset. It's hard to believe, but maybe now is a great time to start shaping the image of bitcoin in the public mind as an asset that can save people from inflation. Ant this the moment, when national currencies are depreciating due to inflation, that can be played in favor of bitcoin.
JPMorgan Believes BTC Will Drop to $13,000
Bitcoin (BTC) Has Never Been Weaker: Stock-to-Flow Model Author
$BTC: Why Peter Schiff Believes You Should ‘Sell Your Bitcoin if You Can’
Bitcoin (BTC) Has Never Been Weaker: Stock-to-Flow Model Author
$BTC: Why Peter Schiff Believes You Should ‘Sell Your Bitcoin if You Can’
What's Going On in the Crypto Market Right Now
People experience the most fear. The negative news background is coupled with a decrease in prices. As a result, investors are exposed to enormous mental discomfort and severe pain in both “sell” and “buy” button area.
Why?
Due to the clear tendency of distribution from weak hands to strong. The number of wallets containing more than 10,000 bitcoins has substantially grown. It is obvious, that the crypto market is a genuinely manipulated market. The overwhelming amount of FUD was spread in order to buy back what was sold at 69 thousand by “smart money” and 50 thousand by “whales”.
There is a delicate psychological line here. The goal is to сause maximum pain, but keep the market alive. And the headlines that are stating a fair price of 13 thousand for bitcoin today, tomorrow might make a U-turn saying that bitcoin has survived the support level.
So, the market is recoving. The price is rising. People are starting to get interested in cryptocurrencies again. And the cycle repeats. #Thoughts
People experience the most fear. The negative news background is coupled with a decrease in prices. As a result, investors are exposed to enormous mental discomfort and severe pain in both “sell” and “buy” button area.
Why?
Due to the clear tendency of distribution from weak hands to strong. The number of wallets containing more than 10,000 bitcoins has substantially grown. It is obvious, that the crypto market is a genuinely manipulated market. The overwhelming amount of FUD was spread in order to buy back what was sold at 69 thousand by “smart money” and 50 thousand by “whales”.
There is a delicate psychological line here. The goal is to сause maximum pain, but keep the market alive. And the headlines that are stating a fair price of 13 thousand for bitcoin today, tomorrow might make a U-turn saying that bitcoin has survived the support level.
So, the market is recoving. The price is rising. People are starting to get interested in cryptocurrencies again. And the cycle repeats. #Thoughts
The MACD histogram helps identify trends and evaluate the balance of buyers and sellers
MACD histogram is one of the best technical analysis tools for spotting trend reversals
A strong buy signal is when the MACD histogram forms a bullish divergence. When prices fall to a new low, the histogram begins to rise from a higher low
MACD histogram is one of the best technical analysis tools for spotting trend reversals
A strong buy signal is when the MACD histogram forms a bullish divergence. When prices fall to a new low, the histogram begins to rise from a higher low
Is it bottom?
It is difficult to predict the exact bottom of the price of Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency, as the market is highly volatile and subject to many different factors. However, there are some indicators that traders and investors may use to try to identify potential bottoms in the market. Some of these indicators include:
✅The MACD histogram helps identify trends and evaluate the balance of buyers and sellers. A strong buy signal is when the MACD histogram forms a bullish divergence. When prices fall to a new low, the histogram begins to rise from a higher low.
✅The most vital buy signals are the divergences of the bear's strength index and prices.
✅Obvious Support levels 14-12k: One of the key ideas in finance is that prices reflect the collective expectations of market participants about the future. However, these expectations are not always accurate, and prices can deviate from what many people expect. This can lead to situations where the price of an asset moves in a direction that is opposite to the expectations of the majority of market participants. There are a number of theories that attempt to explain why prices can move against the opinion of the crowd. One theory is that prices can be influenced by the actions of "smart money" investors who have access to better information or are more skilled at analyzing market trends.
✅Negative news: Covers of major magazines can serve as a good reversal indicator
.
It is difficult to predict the exact bottom of the price of Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency, as the market is highly volatile and subject to many different factors. However, there are some indicators that traders and investors may use to try to identify potential bottoms in the market. Some of these indicators include:
✅The MACD histogram helps identify trends and evaluate the balance of buyers and sellers. A strong buy signal is when the MACD histogram forms a bullish divergence. When prices fall to a new low, the histogram begins to rise from a higher low.
✅The most vital buy signals are the divergences of the bear's strength index and prices.
✅Obvious Support levels 14-12k: One of the key ideas in finance is that prices reflect the collective expectations of market participants about the future. However, these expectations are not always accurate, and prices can deviate from what many people expect. This can lead to situations where the price of an asset moves in a direction that is opposite to the expectations of the majority of market participants. There are a number of theories that attempt to explain why prices can move against the opinion of the crowd. One theory is that prices can be influenced by the actions of "smart money" investors who have access to better information or are more skilled at analyzing market trends.
✅Negative news: Covers of major magazines can serve as a good reversal indicator
.
What is interesting in the market:
Decline in volatility. All the juices are squeezed out of the market
Liquidity goes in BTC
Altcoins continue to fall, after the formation of the bottom of BTC, this may indicate the final stage of bear market. Analogue is the bull market. BTC have already reached peak and the price does not move, meanwhile altcoins at this time shoot up by 50-100 percent or more.
Decline in volatility. All the juices are squeezed out of the market
Liquidity goes in BTC
Altcoins continue to fall, after the formation of the bottom of BTC, this may indicate the final stage of bear market. Analogue is the bull market. BTC have already reached peak and the price does not move, meanwhile altcoins at this time shoot up by 50-100 percent or more.
Good morning! Bitcoin is trading around 30k.
At the moment I sold Bitcoin and do nothing
I follow the development of events and wait for the climax, the stage of euphoria. Just as capitulation (a sharp, painful decline + negative news background) of the crypto market was once necessary before changing direction from falling to rising, a stage of euphoria is also needed now.
I have identified two scenarios.
1. Decrease before the stage of euphoria. Then I will look at what price bitcoin can reach and buy previously sold bitcoins, but at a lower price.
2. Continued growth and the stage of euphoria without correction. Then I just wait for higher prices (for me, this area is 32-34k) and my profit will be the greater, the lower the price of bitcoin. You can make money on growth, but also on a fall, there will be a separate post about this.
This is about Bitcoin. Action plan. We simply observe and accept reality as it is.
At the moment I sold Bitcoin and do nothing
I follow the development of events and wait for the climax, the stage of euphoria. Just as capitulation (a sharp, painful decline + negative news background) of the crypto market was once necessary before changing direction from falling to rising, a stage of euphoria is also needed now.
I have identified two scenarios.
1. Decrease before the stage of euphoria. Then I will look at what price bitcoin can reach and buy previously sold bitcoins, but at a lower price.
2. Continued growth and the stage of euphoria without correction. Then I just wait for higher prices (for me, this area is 32-34k) and my profit will be the greater, the lower the price of bitcoin. You can make money on growth, but also on a fall, there will be a separate post about this.
This is about Bitcoin. Action plan. We simply observe and accept reality as it is.
Good morning!
What are the main tools for monitoring the crypto market.
1. Total Market Cap. This indicator makes it clear whether money is coming into the market now or vice versa.
Now the total market capitalization = 1.234 trillion dollars, and for example in November-January it was 756 billion dollars. Those for 6 months the market grew almost 2 times.
2. Bitcoin dominance. This indicator reflects how much of the total amount of money in the market is in Bitcoin, and how much is in other cryptocurrencies. Now the dominance of Bitcoin is 47%. Half of all the money that is on the market is now in Bitcoin.
The dominance graph is the most important indicator of the movement of capital within the industry. And now it's starting to decline. This means that money from Bitcoin is transferred to other cryptocurrencies. Accordingly, there is a possibility of the beginning of the growth of altcoins and the beginning of the so-called alt-season.
What are the main tools for monitoring the crypto market.
1. Total Market Cap. This indicator makes it clear whether money is coming into the market now or vice versa.
Now the total market capitalization = 1.234 trillion dollars, and for example in November-January it was 756 billion dollars. Those for 6 months the market grew almost 2 times.
2. Bitcoin dominance. This indicator reflects how much of the total amount of money in the market is in Bitcoin, and how much is in other cryptocurrencies. Now the dominance of Bitcoin is 47%. Half of all the money that is on the market is now in Bitcoin.
The dominance graph is the most important indicator of the movement of capital within the industry. And now it's starting to decline. This means that money from Bitcoin is transferred to other cryptocurrencies. Accordingly, there is a possibility of the beginning of the growth of altcoins and the beginning of the so-called alt-season.
The current stage of the market in my opinion = distribution/distribution
1. It is too easy to let everyone earn money on the eve of halving. The potential price AFTER halving is 40-45k. And the seemingly obvious idea to buy now and sell in less than a year is almost 2 times higher. But there is no such magic. Can shake very much before this event.
2. Crypto twitter actively offers to buy bitcoin = the "crowd" is positive about the price.
3. The price was driven higher before the weekend and creates a positive news background.
1. It is too easy to let everyone earn money on the eve of halving. The potential price AFTER halving is 40-45k. And the seemingly obvious idea to buy now and sell in less than a year is almost 2 times higher. But there is no such magic. Can shake very much before this event.
2. Crypto twitter actively offers to buy bitcoin = the "crowd" is positive about the price.
3. The price was driven higher before the weekend and creates a positive news background.
April's first two weeks saw more Ethereum loans liquidated than any month since June 2022
While crypto prices have staged a modest recovery following yesterday's sharp selloff, the volume of liquidations on Ethereum lending markets has already reached its highest monthly value in years—despite April hardly being half over.
According to The Block's data dashboard, nearly $80 million in liquidations in lending protocol Aave and nearly $50 million in liquidations in Compound make up the vast majority of the liquidations.
The last month to have a higher volume liquidations was June 2022, the month following the collapse of the $40 billion Terra ecosystem.
The crash in the price of CRV also threatened to liquidate Curve founder Michael Egorov's loan, according to Colin Wu. While he was not liquidated, Egorov indicated that he intended to reduce his exposure in a message to the Curve Telegram reviewed by The Block.
Traders, in addition to lenders, have faced increased liquidations recently as bullish bets soured along with Bitcoin's decline from its recently-minted all time high. According to CoinGlass data, crypto liquidations total nearly $1.7 billion in the last three days, with the majority of liquidations affecting bullish bets.
While crypto prices have staged a modest recovery following yesterday's sharp selloff, the volume of liquidations on Ethereum lending markets has already reached its highest monthly value in years—despite April hardly being half over.
According to The Block's data dashboard, nearly $80 million in liquidations in lending protocol Aave and nearly $50 million in liquidations in Compound make up the vast majority of the liquidations.
The last month to have a higher volume liquidations was June 2022, the month following the collapse of the $40 billion Terra ecosystem.
The crash in the price of CRV also threatened to liquidate Curve founder Michael Egorov's loan, according to Colin Wu. While he was not liquidated, Egorov indicated that he intended to reduce his exposure in a message to the Curve Telegram reviewed by The Block.
Traders, in addition to lenders, have faced increased liquidations recently as bullish bets soured along with Bitcoin's decline from its recently-minted all time high. According to CoinGlass data, crypto liquidations total nearly $1.7 billion in the last three days, with the majority of liquidations affecting bullish bets.