Morning Bites (part 1)
⚒Norilsk Nickel sees a 200kt Ni market surplus and 300koz Pd deficit in 2023
• The Ni market is set to remain in a surplus of ~200kt in 2023-24 (vs. the previous estimate of 110kt) due to greater Indonesian NPI output and new Class-1 capacities in China and Indonesia, per Norilsk Nickel. As for 2023, the miner sees Ni supply at 3.45mnt (+10% YoY), with low-grade metal production driving most of the surplus (160kt). Overall, this might be an adverse factor for the sentiment on Ni producers in coming years
• In 2023, the Pd market might stay in a 0.3mnoz deficit (vs. 0.8mnoz seen earlier), amid the revised impact from China’s emission regulations and lower ICE-car sales. Still, supply risks persist from operational issues in S. Africa, as well as the deterioration in recycling. Pd output is seen at 6.5mnoz (-1% YoY). As previously estimated, the Pt market is likely to stay balanced in 2023, with 5.9mnoz of supply (+3% YoY)
#nickel #PGMs
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⚒Norilsk Nickel sees a 200kt Ni market surplus and 300koz Pd deficit in 2023
• The Ni market is set to remain in a surplus of ~200kt in 2023-24 (vs. the previous estimate of 110kt) due to greater Indonesian NPI output and new Class-1 capacities in China and Indonesia, per Norilsk Nickel. As for 2023, the miner sees Ni supply at 3.45mnt (+10% YoY), with low-grade metal production driving most of the surplus (160kt). Overall, this might be an adverse factor for the sentiment on Ni producers in coming years
• In 2023, the Pd market might stay in a 0.3mnoz deficit (vs. 0.8mnoz seen earlier), amid the revised impact from China’s emission regulations and lower ICE-car sales. Still, supply risks persist from operational issues in S. Africa, as well as the deterioration in recycling. Pd output is seen at 6.5mnoz (-1% YoY). As previously estimated, the Pt market is likely to stay balanced in 2023, with 5.9mnoz of supply (+3% YoY)
#nickel #PGMs
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Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Russia’s gold production was up 10.5% YoY in April, decelerating from the 26.5% YoY jump in March, according to Rosstat. However, on our numbers, the figure was still down 11.5% vs. the 2021 level: the positive dynamics seen recently are likely driven by the low base effect from 2022. Despite some YoY recovery in Russia’s output (~9% of the world's gold mine output), we reiterate our bullish view on the precious metal, amid strong physical gold demand and rising producer cash costs globally
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
📈Russia’s gold production was up 10.5% YoY in April, decelerating from the 26.5% YoY jump in March, according to Rosstat. However, on our numbers, the figure was still down 11.5% vs. the 2021 level: the positive dynamics seen recently are likely driven by the low base effect from 2022. Despite some YoY recovery in Russia’s output (~9% of the world's gold mine output), we reiterate our bullish view on the precious metal, amid strong physical gold demand and rising producer cash costs globally
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇱Chile’s copper production declined 1% YoY in April, decelerating from the 5% YoY drop in March. Overall, in April, the country's Cu output remained close to its historical lows, and was the lowest of any April since 2005. This dynamic has been mostly driven by the continuous drought in the region, as well as negative structural effects (e.g. grade depletion). In our view, if these factors keep weighing on Chilean mining (~27% of world mined Cu supply), they might partially offset the negative effect on prices from new project launches (Kamoa, QB2, Udokan, etc) in 2023
#copper
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🇨🇱Chile’s copper production declined 1% YoY in April, decelerating from the 5% YoY drop in March. Overall, in April, the country's Cu output remained close to its historical lows, and was the lowest of any April since 2005. This dynamic has been mostly driven by the continuous drought in the region, as well as negative structural effects (e.g. grade depletion). In our view, if these factors keep weighing on Chilean mining (~27% of world mined Cu supply), they might partially offset the negative effect on prices from new project launches (Kamoa, QB2, Udokan, etc) in 2023
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 2)
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed overall negative dynamics in May. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI declined to 44.8 (consensus estimate - 44.6), from 45.8 in April, its lowest point since May 2020. The US ISM manufacturing PMI also fell, to 46.9 (from 47.1 in April)
❗️The global manufacturing sector remained subdued in May, as indicated by PMIs below 50.0. The continuous deterioration in activity in the EU/US and China is likely to have an adverse impact on the demand for industrial metals (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper). Nonetheless, China's significant liquidity injections in early 2023 and plans for massive infrastructure projects might bolster metals consumption later this year
#PMIs
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🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed overall negative dynamics in May. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI declined to 44.8 (consensus estimate - 44.6), from 45.8 in April, its lowest point since May 2020. The US ISM manufacturing PMI also fell, to 46.9 (from 47.1 in April)
❗️The global manufacturing sector remained subdued in May, as indicated by PMIs below 50.0. The continuous deterioration in activity in the EU/US and China is likely to have an adverse impact on the demand for industrial metals (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper). Nonetheless, China's significant liquidity injections in early 2023 and plans for massive infrastructure projects might bolster metals consumption later this year
#PMIs
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Morning Bites (part 1)
🏦 Global central banks suddenly sold substantial volumes of gold in April, marking the first decline in holdings since March 2022, the World Gold Council (WGC) reports. Overall, CBs were net sellers of 71t of gold (vs. the revised +1.1t in March). The main contributors were Turkey (-81t: 14% of its reserves) and Kazakhstan (-13t). On the buyers' side were Poland and China (+15t and +8t, respectively). Although CB dynamics were bearish in April, we reiterate our positive view on the precious metal's price, amid inflation pressures and the adverse macroeconomic situation globally. In addition, a WGC poll underpins the positive sentiment among CB managers toward gold holdings
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏦 Global central banks suddenly sold substantial volumes of gold in April, marking the first decline in holdings since March 2022, the World Gold Council (WGC) reports. Overall, CBs were net sellers of 71t of gold (vs. the revised +1.1t in March). The main contributors were Turkey (-81t: 14% of its reserves) and Kazakhstan (-13t). On the buyers' side were Poland and China (+15t and +8t, respectively). Although CB dynamics were bearish in April, we reiterate our positive view on the precious metal's price, amid inflation pressures and the adverse macroeconomic situation globally. In addition, a WGC poll underpins the positive sentiment among CB managers toward gold holdings
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇵🇪Peru’s copper output jumped 31% YoY in April, following the 20% YoY growth in March. According to the Ministry of Energy and Mines, this was driven by the strong performance of domestic pits, in particular Las Bambas and Cerro Verde (and partly due to the low base effect from 2022-21). Meanwhile, the combined output of Peru (11% of global Cu supply) and Chile (27%) was 8% higher YoY. We note that, in annual terms, the increase seems to be in line with the plan of Peru’s government to achieve 15% YoY Cu output growth during 2023. Despite the solid supply additions in Peru, Chile’s deteriorating mining segment might partially outweigh the negative effect on prices, in our view
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
🇵🇪Peru’s copper output jumped 31% YoY in April, following the 20% YoY growth in March. According to the Ministry of Energy and Mines, this was driven by the strong performance of domestic pits, in particular Las Bambas and Cerro Verde (and partly due to the low base effect from 2022-21). Meanwhile, the combined output of Peru (11% of global Cu supply) and Chile (27%) was 8% higher YoY. We note that, in annual terms, the increase seems to be in line with the plan of Peru’s government to achieve 15% YoY Cu output growth during 2023. Despite the solid supply additions in Peru, Chile’s deteriorating mining segment might partially outweigh the negative effect on prices, in our view
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 3)
🏗️China is considering new measures to support its property sector and boost the economy, Bloomberg reports. As the local real estate segment remains stressed in 2023, Beijing is working on a new support package. According to a Bloomberg source, Chinese regulators are considering reducing down payments, as well as lowering agent commissions on transactions. Although the timing and volume of the new measures were not specified, they might bolster China’s construction activity and the demand for industial metals (together with the plans for massive infrastructure projects in 2023). The country represents 52% of global steel consumption, as well as 55% and 58% of world copper and aluminium demand, respectively
#global
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🏗️China is considering new measures to support its property sector and boost the economy, Bloomberg reports. As the local real estate segment remains stressed in 2023, Beijing is working on a new support package. According to a Bloomberg source, Chinese regulators are considering reducing down payments, as well as lowering agent commissions on transactions. Although the timing and volume of the new measures were not specified, they might bolster China’s construction activity and the demand for industial metals (together with the plans for massive infrastructure projects in 2023). The country represents 52% of global steel consumption, as well as 55% and 58% of world copper and aluminium demand, respectively
#global
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Morning Bites (part 4)
🇨🇳China might extend tax incentives for EV purchases, amid other efforts to boost sluggish post-Covid recovery, Bloomberg reports. A 4-year extension to recently ended financial and tax incentives was discussed for some EVs and hybrids below CNY 300k (~USD 42k). Beijing has been promoting the domestic EV industry for more than 10 years: previously, buyers received discounts of CNY 60k (~USD 8k) for purchasing EVs, but the programme ended in 2022. In our view, if the tax incentives were prolonged, this would add further support to demand for the battery metals basket (e.g. lithium, nickel and cobalt)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
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🇨🇳China might extend tax incentives for EV purchases, amid other efforts to boost sluggish post-Covid recovery, Bloomberg reports. A 4-year extension to recently ended financial and tax incentives was discussed for some EVs and hybrids below CNY 300k (~USD 42k). Beijing has been promoting the domestic EV industry for more than 10 years: previously, buyers received discounts of CNY 60k (~USD 8k) for purchasing EVs, but the programme ended in 2022. In our view, if the tax incentives were prolonged, this would add further support to demand for the battery metals basket (e.g. lithium, nickel and cobalt)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 5)
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales grew 75% YoY in April, after the 165% YoY surge in March, according to government data. In addition to the resurgence in tourism after HK’s border with the Mainland was reopened in early-2023 (in April, 2.9mn visitors arrived in HK vs. <5k a year ago), the robust recovery was also affected by improved consumer sentiment. Despite some moderate upbeat sentiment in Asia, the impact on the global diamond market, which is still being heavily stressed by adverse macroeconomic conditions, is rather limited
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales grew 75% YoY in April, after the 165% YoY surge in March, according to government data. In addition to the resurgence in tourism after HK’s border with the Mainland was reopened in early-2023 (in April, 2.9mn visitors arrived in HK vs. <5k a year ago), the robust recovery was also affected by improved consumer sentiment. Despite some moderate upbeat sentiment in Asia, the impact on the global diamond market, which is still being heavily stressed by adverse macroeconomic conditions, is rather limited
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎US jewellery sales continued their downtrend, falling 7% YoY in April, after the revised 9% YoY drop in March, according to the Department of Commerce. Although US inflation has slowed somewhat, local consumer sentiment was hit significantly in previous months, IDEX reports. Therefore, we maintain our view that the ongoing YoY decline in US jewellery sales (since October 2022, except for the <1% growth in January), affected by adverse macroeconomic conditions, might keep the global demand for rough diamonds subdued in the near future. To recap, the US accounts for ~50% of world diamond gem-set jewellery sales
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎US jewellery sales continued their downtrend, falling 7% YoY in April, after the revised 9% YoY drop in March, according to the Department of Commerce. Although US inflation has slowed somewhat, local consumer sentiment was hit significantly in previous months, IDEX reports. Therefore, we maintain our view that the ongoing YoY decline in US jewellery sales (since October 2022, except for the <1% growth in January), affected by adverse macroeconomic conditions, might keep the global demand for rough diamonds subdued in the near future. To recap, the US accounts for ~50% of world diamond gem-set jewellery sales
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎De Beers cut rough diamonds prices at its 5th cycle amid sluggish demand, according to Rapaport. Sightholders say that the prices were reduced for >2ct and 1-1.5ct items, with a discount of 5-10% primarily aimed at lower quality stones. In addition, the company extended its buyback terms for some >2ct categories. We note that De Beers sales have been consistently lower YoY in 2023. Petra Diamonds also reduced its LFL prices, by 13%, at the May auction. Hence, we reiterate our view that the diamond market globally is still heavily stressed, affected by the adverse macroeconomic conditions
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎De Beers cut rough diamonds prices at its 5th cycle amid sluggish demand, according to Rapaport. Sightholders say that the prices were reduced for >2ct and 1-1.5ct items, with a discount of 5-10% primarily aimed at lower quality stones. In addition, the company extended its buyback terms for some >2ct categories. We note that De Beers sales have been consistently lower YoY in 2023. Petra Diamonds also reduced its LFL prices, by 13%, at the May auction. Hence, we reiterate our view that the diamond market globally is still heavily stressed, affected by the adverse macroeconomic conditions
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for May (see table above)
#statistics #China
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#statistics #China
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Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 11% YoY in May, after the 83% YoY surge in April. During the last month, average daily steel production contracted on a YoY basis, while inventories also shrank vs. the 2022 levels. Overall, China’s strong liquidity inflows, as well as plans for massive infrastructure projects this year, might bolster domestic construction activity and, hence, steel demand in 2023. In addition, Beijing is considering new support measures for the property sector
🪨China’s coal imports grew 93% YoY in May (vs. the +73% YoY in April). However, the imports shrunk 3% MoM, amid weaker demand from the power and steel sectors, as well as high inventories, according to Reuters. The positive YoY dynamics reflect the low base effect from 2022, as well as the lifting of restrictions on Australian coal imports, in our view
#coal #steel
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🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 11% YoY in May, after the 83% YoY surge in April. During the last month, average daily steel production contracted on a YoY basis, while inventories also shrank vs. the 2022 levels. Overall, China’s strong liquidity inflows, as well as plans for massive infrastructure projects this year, might bolster domestic construction activity and, hence, steel demand in 2023. In addition, Beijing is considering new support measures for the property sector
🪨China’s coal imports grew 93% YoY in May (vs. the +73% YoY in April). However, the imports shrunk 3% MoM, amid weaker demand from the power and steel sectors, as well as high inventories, according to Reuters. The positive YoY dynamics reflect the low base effect from 2022, as well as the lifting of restrictions on Australian coal imports, in our view
#coal #steel
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Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production during late May was 2.10mnt, a 6.7% drop from the previous ten days (-9.7% YoY). At the same time, local steel inventories declined 4.0% (-12.9% YoY). This was the fourth consecutive fall for ten-day periods (starting from April 20), likely associated with CISA’s call to lower China’s production amid low steel prices. In addition, some mills in Tangshan (~13% of China’s steel output) have recently received a municipal notice not to exceed the 2022 production level. Such dynamics, if they persist, are likely to be favorable for the steel prices, in our view
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production during late May was 2.10mnt, a 6.7% drop from the previous ten days (-9.7% YoY). At the same time, local steel inventories declined 4.0% (-12.9% YoY). This was the fourth consecutive fall for ten-day periods (starting from April 20), likely associated with CISA’s call to lower China’s production amid low steel prices. In addition, some mills in Tangshan (~13% of China’s steel output) have recently received a municipal notice not to exceed the 2022 production level. Such dynamics, if they persist, are likely to be favorable for the steel prices, in our view
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎Petra Diamonds has postponed its May-June tenders to August. According to IDEX, the miner initially planned to offer 380kct this month, but has decided to sell the stones in August, together with the 76kct of gems unrealised in May. Similarly, De Beers has postponed its auctions during cycles 5-6 amid weak demand from Indian cutters, and also recently lowered prices. Hence, we reiterate our view that the adverse macroeconomic conditions globally and continuously weak US jewellery sales (~50% of the global demand) are likely to keep the diamond sector subdued, at least in the near future
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎Petra Diamonds has postponed its May-June tenders to August. According to IDEX, the miner initially planned to offer 380kct this month, but has decided to sell the stones in August, together with the 76kct of gems unrealised in May. Similarly, De Beers has postponed its auctions during cycles 5-6 amid weak demand from Indian cutters, and also recently lowered prices. Hence, we reiterate our view that the adverse macroeconomic conditions globally and continuously weak US jewellery sales (~50% of the global demand) are likely to keep the diamond sector subdued, at least in the near future
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Gold-backed ETFs increased their holdings 19t in May, following the 15t gain in April, marking the third consecutive monthly inflow. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), during last month, almost all regions saw positive demand, except for Europe (-2t). Hence, some improvement in world ETF sentiment supports our bullish view on the yellow metal’s performance, in addition to the steady YoY growth in physical gold demand and rising gold miners’ cash costs. We note that a recent WGC poll underpins the positive sentiment of global CBs’ managers towards gold holdings
#ETF #gold
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📈Gold-backed ETFs increased their holdings 19t in May, following the 15t gain in April, marking the third consecutive monthly inflow. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), during last month, almost all regions saw positive demand, except for Europe (-2t). Hence, some improvement in world ETF sentiment supports our bullish view on the yellow metal’s performance, in addition to the steady YoY growth in physical gold demand and rising gold miners’ cash costs. We note that a recent WGC poll underpins the positive sentiment of global CBs’ managers towards gold holdings
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 17% YoY in May, in line with the 16% YoY growth in April. Nevertheless, the figure was still 25% below the (2019) pre-COVID level. Specifically, in Germany and Spain, car sales were down 26% and 27%, respectively, vs. 2019, while sales in France were 25% lower. At the same time, sales in the UK and Italy were 21% and 24% below the 2019 figures, respectively. Given that these five countries represent ~70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe, we assume that car sales in the region have likely continued to show some YoY recovery, while remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 17% YoY in May, in line with the 16% YoY growth in April. Nevertheless, the figure was still 25% below the (2019) pre-COVID level. Specifically, in Germany and Spain, car sales were down 26% and 27%, respectively, vs. 2019, while sales in France were 25% lower. At the same time, sales in the UK and Italy were 21% and 24% below the 2019 figures, respectively. Given that these five countries represent ~70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe, we assume that car sales in the region have likely continued to show some YoY recovery, while remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
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