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Global Metals&Mining Research from Glush&Team. No investment advice, just numbers & charts!
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Morning Bites (part 2)

💎India’s rough diamond net imports rose 7% YoY in April, marking the first increase since November 2022. Specifically, India’s polished diamond net exports dropped 39% YoY (vs. -25% YoY in March), while the county’s synthetic rough diamond net imports decreased 52% YoY in April (vs. -53% YoY in March). The share of lab-grown net rough imports in natural diamond imports was 7% in April — the same as a year ago

🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations rose 16% YoY in April, decelerating from the 26% YoY growth in March. The results were in line with the preliminary estimates. Nevertheless, the figure was still 28% below the pre-COVID 2019 level (vs. -20% in March). We keep our cautious outlook on EU car sales amid the economic slowdown. To recap, the EU + UK accounted for 20% and 32% of the world auto-catalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2022E. Hence, weak car sales could keep PGM demand at subdued levels

#cars #diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 3)

💎Alrosa has resumed operations at its Zarya mine, after the 16-month suspension. Production is set to restart in 2024. On our numbers, the mine's full capacity accounts for 0.4% of global rough diamond supply in 2024F. As such, we expect a rather limited impact on the diamond market from Zarya being ramped up

☢️ The French parliament has voted for simplified permits to construct six new reactors, according to the authority’s website. The new law follows the country’s recent nuclear investment plan, which cancels the previously scheduled phase-out programme to decrease the share of nuclear generation to 50% of local electricity production by 2035 (which could cut 3.5-5.0% of world nuclear capacity). Hence, in our view, the news is supportive for long-term uranium demand

#diamonds #uranium
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites
 
🔋Albemarle is set to double its lithium hydroxide output in Australia
. According to the company, the plan implies a capacity increase of ~53kt/a LCE in 2026 at its Kemerton Industrial Park facility, Western Australia. On our numbers, the additional Li volumes account for ~3% of global supply in 2026F. Overall, the plan likely reflects the growing consumer appetite for EVs globally
 
#lithium #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
SQM 1Q23 results – below forecasts amid weaker sales

📝SQM's 1Q23 revenues came in weaker than both the consensus and our estimates (by -5% and -22%, respectively), mostly affected by lower lithium sales. In addition, the average realised price was ~10% lower than we had envisaged, while the unit cash cost was 2% below our estimates. Hence, EBITDA was also disappointing (-15% vs. consensus and -19% vs. us)

According to the company, the 1Q23 sales were hit by softer demand in the key Lithium and Derivatives segment. However, SQM expects sales volumes to recover in the coming quarters as the Li market is set to remain tight until the end of 2023, with demand growing at least 20% YoY and new supply delayed

❗️At spot prices, we expect 2Q23 EBITDA to show a low-single digit QoQ improvement, amid a potential recovery in sales and production. However, the positive effect is limited by lower prices: at spot, Li hydroxide is 25% lower than the 1Q23 average

#SQM #lithium
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/SQM_US/
Morning Bites

💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales jumped 58% YoY in April, accelerating from the 45% YoY growth in March. Although the growth was mostly due to the low base effect from 2022 (when demand was negatively affected by strict Covid-19 restrictions), the figure was also 7% above the (pre-pandemic) 2019 level. We reiterate our view that China’s reopening might further bolster local jewellery spending this year. However, the positive impact on the global rough diamond market (the momentum of which is negative, amid global recessionary risks and inflationary pressures) is likely to be limited: China represents only ~15% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
🗓1Q23 reporting season - outperforming the consensus  
   
📌The represented results are ex. Vale, which was an outlier: the company's EBITDA was significantly below forecasts (-26% vs. the consensus and -30% vs. us), which would distort reporting season conclusions

📝 The weighted average EBITDA of global miners under our coverage was generally stronger than both the consensus and we had anticipated (by +4% and +1%, respectively). Meanwhile, our spot engine estimates for absolute numbers were roughly as accurate as the consensus, with a deviation rate of ~9%
   
📝In our next post we take a deeper look at revenue effects on the miners’ financials
   
#reporting_season   
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
🗓1Q23 reporting season - concluding remarks   
   
📈On average, larger miners (ex. Vale) reported 14% stronger revenues than market expectations mostly due to the higher realised prices and larger volumes
    
📉However, cash costs remained relatively flat QoQ, which ran counter to the consensus view of some cost normalisation. The latter negatively affected companies' EBITDA, which, as mentioned in the previous post, was 1% stronger than our estimates (+4% vs. consensus) on a weighted average basis
   
#reporting_season   
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Morning Bites

💎Petra Diamonds’ LFL rough prices dropped 13.0% at its May auction, vs. March. However, on an annual basis, the prices were still 8.9% higher YoY. According to the miner, most of the decline in May was recorded in diamonds smaller than 2ct, while more premium goods (2-11ct) also faced a 3-5% decrease. Petra has withheld ~15% of its sales volumes, expecting a better pricing environment later in 2023. Per the company’s CEO, Richard Duffy, the softer demand was affected by midstream stocks and extended manufacturing shutdowns, given the recent holidays in India (~95% of world polished stones supply). Overall, we maintain our cautious view on the diamond sector globally, following continuously soft US jewellery data and weak De Beers sales since early-2023

#diamonds 
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)

📈Global primary aluminium production remained flat YoY in April, after the 1% YoY growth in March, the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reports. Meanwhile, last month, China’s aluminium output was unchanged YoY, following the series of recent increases. The country’s output was also 12% higher than the pre-Covid (2019) level, while ex-China production rose 1% YoY (+2% vs. 2019). Despite the stable dynamics in April, we remind readers that China might relaunch its previously suspended capacities, as well as commission new smelters in FY23 (together representing 6% of global aluminium supply). Although this outlook seems overly ambitious to us, were it to be realised, that might put substantial pressure on the metal’s price

#aluminium 
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)

🚗💨Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in EU rose 13% YoY in 1Q23 from a low base, after the 3% YoY growth in 4Q22. Petrol car sales were up 18% YoY (vs. +5% YoY in 1Q22), while diesel car registrations were almost flat (vs. -1% YoY). Diesel cars accounted for 26% of ICE car sales (vs. 28% in 4Q22 and 29% in 1Q22). Overall, the sales are still far below the 2019 levels, weighing on PGMs prices: the EU represents 20% and 31% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively

🚘EU+UK EV sales rose 18% YoY in 1Q23, following the 31% YoY growth in 4Q22. BEV sales gained 33% YoY (vs. +36% YoY in 4Q22), while PHEV sales shrank 3% YoY (vs. +22% YoY). The share of BEVs in total EV sales grew slightly to 66%, from 64% in 4Q22. In our view, continuously strong local EV sales likely to positively affect the demand for battery metals (e.g. nickel, lithium and cobalt)

#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 3)

💎 India – Jewellery segment revenues at Titan were up 33% YoY in CY 1Q23, accelerating from the 15% YoY growth in CY 4Q22. According to the retailer, the average realised ticket price was up 8% YoY, while the number of buyers rose 15%, following the strong Indian wedding season. Hence, we reiterate our view that these dynamics might indicate a somewhat positive read-across for local gold and rough diamonds demand. Nevertheless, the diamond segment globally is likely to remain materially stressed in the near future, given the unfavourable macroeconomic conditions

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites

🔗Global crude steel output declined 2% YoY to 161mnt in April, reversing from the 2% YoY growth in March, according to the World Steel Association. Specifically, China’s production fell 2% YoY (vs. the 7% YoY growth in March), which likely reflected Beijing's plan to limit national steel output, as well as the similar call from CISA amid low domestic realised prices. China represented 57% of the global steel supply in April. Overall, ex-China steel production shrank 4% YoY. In particular, EU production dropped 12% YoY (after -6% YoY in March), while US steel production also declined by 5% YoY. Russia’s steel output was up 2% YoY after the flat YoY dynamics in March

#steel 
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
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Morning Bites

🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production during mid-May was 2.25mnt, a 0.2% decrease compared with the first ten days of May (YoY drop of 2.3%). Meanwhile, local steel inventories declined 7.6% over the same period (-18.6% YoY). To recap, according to the WSA, China‘s steel output was down 2% YoY in April, which likely reflected CISA’s recent call to cut production amid low domestic steel prices. Overall, Chinese steel output fell YoY for the third consecutive 10-day period (from 20 April): hence, were the dynamics to persist, this could add support to steel prices

💎India’s midstream producers in Surat are extending their summer holidays, amid recession risks and soft US/EU demand, IDEX reports. According to the local diamond workers’ union, there have been 10,000 layoffs in Surat (90% of world polished stones supply) in the last two months to avoid overproduction. Hence, the news underpins our cautious view on the diamond market

#steel #diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites

🏗China’s excavator sales are set to be down 25% YoY in May (domestic + export), following the 23% YoY decline in April, according to preliminary estimates from Construction Machinery and Equipment. Meanwhile, domestic excavator sales are seen declining 46% YoY (vs. -41% YoY in April), but export sales rising some 7% YoY (roughly in line with the 9% YoY growth in April). Overall, domestic excavator sales have been showing negative dynamics since May 2021, which underpins the ongoing stagnation in the local property sector. However, we reiterate our view that the near-record liquidity inflows in early-2023 are likely to bolster domestic construction activity. In addition, China’s plan for massive infrastructure projects could well also support the demand for steel and industrial metals (e.g. aluminium and copper) later in 2023

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites

🇮🇳India’s steel demand is set to grow 7.5% YoY in FY 2023-24 (April 2023 - March 2024), following the 13.3% YoY jump a year ago, according to a report by the Indian Steel Association. The agency expects local steel consumption to expand a further 6.3% YoY in FY 2024-25. Despite the upbeat sentiment on the Indian market, China remains a key steel consumer in Asia, driving 52% of global demand for the metal in 2022E (vs. ~6% by India). However, India’s strong dynamics are likely to be a long-term supportive factor for steel prices, in our view

#steel 
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites

💎Alrosa plans to launch restoration works at the Mir mine this year, after a severe flood in 2017 meant that operations were suspended, according to Yakutia’s regional minister, Aysen Nikolayev. Full capacity is to be reached by 2030. The Mir mine contains high grade stones and accounted for ~2.5% of global diamond production before the accident, as well as 11% of Alrosa’s output. Despite the project’s large scale, we do not expect the news to affect market sentiment. Specifically, the ramp-up period is rather long, while the plans for Mir's recovery were confirmed back in mid-2022

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites

🪨Asian seaborne thermal coal imports reached historical highs in May, Reuters reports, citing Kpler estimates. The regional offloads were likely 78.4mnt during the month: in particular, China imported 28.2mnt (roughly flat MoM), amid strong electricity demand. As for the second largest importer, India, its inflows jumped 16% MoM to 16.6mnt, due to local economic growth and weather effects. In our view, were the dynamics to persist, it could add some support to thermal coal prices globally (which have slumped 60-70% from their highs of 2022)

#coal
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Coal
Morning Bites (part 1)

Norilsk Nickel sees a 200kt Ni market surplus and 300koz Pd deficit in 2023


• The Ni market is set to remain in a surplus of ~200kt in 2023-24 (vs. the previous estimate of 110kt) due to greater Indonesian NPI output and new Class-1 capacities in China and Indonesia, per Norilsk Nickel. As for 2023, the miner sees Ni supply at 3.45mnt (+10% YoY), with low-grade metal production driving most of the surplus (160kt). Overall, this might be an adverse factor for the sentiment on Ni producers in coming years

• In 2023, the Pd market might stay in a 0.3mnoz deficit (vs. 0.8mnoz seen earlier), amid the revised impact from China’s emission regulations and lower ICE-car sales. Still, supply risks persist from operational issues in S. Africa, as well as the deterioration in recycling. Pd output is seen at 6.5mnoz (-1% YoY). As previously estimated, the Pt market is likely to stay balanced in 2023, with 5.9mnoz of supply (+3% YoY)

#nickel #PGMs 
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
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