Morning Bites (part 2)
🌕Most central banks are set to raise their gold holdings in 2023, according to poll results by the HSBC Reserve Management Trends Survey. Specifically, more than two thirds of 83 reserve managers believe their peers will increase gold holdings this year, citing inflation and geopolitical risks as the most important concerns. We remind our readers that global institutions already boosted purchases 2.5x YoY to 1,136t in 2022, while they kept buying gold in 2mo23. Hence, the news is in line with the current dynamics and our bullish view on the yellow metal, amid the substantial growth in physical gold demand and unfavourable macroeconomic conditions globally
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🌕Most central banks are set to raise their gold holdings in 2023, according to poll results by the HSBC Reserve Management Trends Survey. Specifically, more than two thirds of 83 reserve managers believe their peers will increase gold holdings this year, citing inflation and geopolitical risks as the most important concerns. We remind our readers that global institutions already boosted purchases 2.5x YoY to 1,136t in 2022, while they kept buying gold in 2mo23. Hence, the news is in line with the current dynamics and our bullish view on the yellow metal, amid the substantial growth in physical gold demand and unfavourable macroeconomic conditions globally
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Teck 1Q23 results - in-line with expectations
📝The miner's 1Q23 revenues were weaker than we had expected (-6% vs. the consensus and -12% vs. us), mostly amid lower proceeds from the copper business unit. However, the cash costs line was more upbeat, and EBITDA thus arrived broadly in-line with consensus and us
⛏The miner reiterated its FY23 guidance, expecting copper output to jump >40% YoY due to the ramp up of the QB2 project (the Quebrada Blanca production outlook remained unchanged, at 150-180kt, for this year)
📌At spot, we expect Teck's 2Q23F EBITDA to grow in low-single digits QoQ, bolstered by gradual production growth, despite some slowdown in prices across most of the company's commodity basket
#TECK #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/TECK_US/
📝The miner's 1Q23 revenues were weaker than we had expected (-6% vs. the consensus and -12% vs. us), mostly amid lower proceeds from the copper business unit. However, the cash costs line was more upbeat, and EBITDA thus arrived broadly in-line with consensus and us
⛏The miner reiterated its FY23 guidance, expecting copper output to jump >40% YoY due to the ramp up of the QB2 project (the Quebrada Blanca production outlook remained unchanged, at 150-180kt, for this year)
📌At spot, we expect Teck's 2Q23F EBITDA to grow in low-single digits QoQ, bolstered by gradual production growth, despite some slowdown in prices across most of the company's commodity basket
#TECK #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/TECK_US/
First Quantum 1Q23 results - EBITDA disappoints
📝The company's 1Q23 revenues came below market expectations, following materially weaker gold/copper sales volumes than we had expected. Meanwhile, the negative effect on EBITDA (-23% vs. consensus and -28% vs. us) was even stronger, due to higher unit cash costs
📌According to the miner, its C1 copper cash cost surged 20% QoQ and ~40% YoY to USD 2.24/lb in 1Q23, affected by lower production. However, First Quantum sees the figure normalising to USD 1.65-1.85/lb in FY23
🏭The company has reiterated its outlook for 2023: copper production to grow ~4% YoY, with gold output remaining relatively flat
📌At spot prices, we expect the miner's 2Q23 EBITDA to see a substantial rebound QoQ, amid a potentially lower costs burden and operations at Cobre Panama recovering - local authorities and First Quantum agreed on the details for the copper mine contract in early-March
#FM #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/FM_CN/
📝The company's 1Q23 revenues came below market expectations, following materially weaker gold/copper sales volumes than we had expected. Meanwhile, the negative effect on EBITDA (-23% vs. consensus and -28% vs. us) was even stronger, due to higher unit cash costs
📌According to the miner, its C1 copper cash cost surged 20% QoQ and ~40% YoY to USD 2.24/lb in 1Q23, affected by lower production. However, First Quantum sees the figure normalising to USD 1.65-1.85/lb in FY23
🏭The company has reiterated its outlook for 2023: copper production to grow ~4% YoY, with gold output remaining relatively flat
📌At spot prices, we expect the miner's 2Q23 EBITDA to see a substantial rebound QoQ, amid a potentially lower costs burden and operations at Cobre Panama recovering - local authorities and First Quantum agreed on the details for the copper mine contract in early-March
#FM #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/FM_CN/
👍2
Morning Bites (part 1)
📈Russia’s gold output was up 9.1% YoY in March, after the 6.9% YoY increase in February, according to Rosstat. We believe this was partially due to the low base of 2022. Despite some recovery in Russian domestic production (~9% of global mined gold supply), we maintain our positive view on the precious metal amid strong physical demand, rising cash costs and turbulence in the global economy. To recap, according to the recent study by HSBC, most central banks’ reserve managers are likely to increase their gold holdings further in 2023. In our view, that might add more support to the already elevated physical gold demand
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
📈Russia’s gold output was up 9.1% YoY in March, after the 6.9% YoY increase in February, according to Rosstat. We believe this was partially due to the low base of 2022. Despite some recovery in Russian domestic production (~9% of global mined gold supply), we maintain our positive view on the precious metal amid strong physical demand, rising cash costs and turbulence in the global economy. To recap, according to the recent study by HSBC, most central banks’ reserve managers are likely to increase their gold holdings further in 2023. In our view, that might add more support to the already elevated physical gold demand
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
Global EV sales are set to gain 35% YoY in 2023, according to an International Energy Agency (IEA) report. Meanwhile, the agency envisages further growth of the EV share of total car sales from 14% in 2022 to 18% in 2023. China was the main EV consumer last year, representing ~60% of global demand, and the agency expects the country to retain its position in the coming years. Overall, the IEA’s forecast for 2023 is more bullish than our market estimates, and supports our expectations of increasing appetite for EVs globally. We believe this dynamic will further bolster demand for the battery metals basket (e.g. lithium, nickel and cobalt)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Global EV sales are set to gain 35% YoY in 2023, according to an International Energy Agency (IEA) report. Meanwhile, the agency envisages further growth of the EV share of total car sales from 14% in 2022 to 18% in 2023. China was the main EV consumer last year, representing ~60% of global demand, and the agency expects the country to retain its position in the coming years. Overall, the IEA’s forecast for 2023 is more bullish than our market estimates, and supports our expectations of increasing appetite for EVs globally. We believe this dynamic will further bolster demand for the battery metals basket (e.g. lithium, nickel and cobalt)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Vale 1Q23 results - financials hit by weaker prices
📝Vale's revenues in 1Q23 were materially lower than both the consensus and our expectations (by 17% and 13%, respectively), mostly due to a softer realised iron ore price (sales volumes had been disclosed earlier) that was >15% below our forecast. Furthermore, higher unit cash costs exacerbated the negative effect on EBITDA (-26% vs. the consensus and -30% vs. us)
⛏To recap, the company has recently reiterated its FY23 production guidance: iron ore output is set to grow 2% YoY; however, the figure for nickel is to shrink 6% YoY, due to depletion of the Ovoid mine and expansion delays
📌On our numbers, Vale's 2Q23F EBITDA will be significantly stronger QoQ, at spot, bolstered by seasonally higher iron ore sales, as well as the steady ramp-up of the Salobo copper project
#VALE #Iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com/company/VALE_US/
📝Vale's revenues in 1Q23 were materially lower than both the consensus and our expectations (by 17% and 13%, respectively), mostly due to a softer realised iron ore price (sales volumes had been disclosed earlier) that was >15% below our forecast. Furthermore, higher unit cash costs exacerbated the negative effect on EBITDA (-26% vs. the consensus and -30% vs. us)
⛏To recap, the company has recently reiterated its FY23 production guidance: iron ore output is set to grow 2% YoY; however, the figure for nickel is to shrink 6% YoY, due to depletion of the Ovoid mine and expansion delays
📌On our numbers, Vale's 2Q23F EBITDA will be significantly stronger QoQ, at spot, bolstered by seasonally higher iron ore sales, as well as the steady ramp-up of the Salobo copper project
#VALE #Iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com/company/VALE_US/
Newmont 1Q23 results - slightly below forecasts
📉Newmont's revenues in 1Q23 were moderately weaker than the consensus (-5%) and our estimates (-6%), mostly due to lower gold sales than we had anticipated. As a result, adjusted EBITDA was also a miss
⛏The company reiterated its guidance of 5.7-6.3mnoz for FY23: gold production is to remain unchanged YoY despite a showdown of some 5% YoY in payable output during 1Q23
💰The company's BoD has declared a 1Q dividend of USD 0.40/sh, which implies a modest DY of some 0.8%
❗️On our numbers, Newmont’s 2Q23F EBITDA will show a moderate recovery QoQ at spot: gold prices are now ~5% higher than the 1Q23 average
#NEM #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/NEM_US/
📉Newmont's revenues in 1Q23 were moderately weaker than the consensus (-5%) and our estimates (-6%), mostly due to lower gold sales than we had anticipated. As a result, adjusted EBITDA was also a miss
⛏The company reiterated its guidance of 5.7-6.3mnoz for FY23: gold production is to remain unchanged YoY despite a showdown of some 5% YoY in payable output during 1Q23
💰The company's BoD has declared a 1Q dividend of USD 0.40/sh, which implies a modest DY of some 0.8%
❗️On our numbers, Newmont’s 2Q23F EBITDA will show a moderate recovery QoQ at spot: gold prices are now ~5% higher than the 1Q23 average
#NEM #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/NEM_US/
Peabody Energy 1Q23 results - another positive report
✏️Peabody's quarterly revenues have again outperformed both the consensus and us, with the 1Q23 numbers being 14% and 17% higher, respectively, driven by greater (than expected) proceeds from spot coal sales and other activities. However, the growth in cash costs limited the positive effect on EBITDA (+11% vs. the consensus and +10% vs. us)
❗️The coal miner reiterated its guidance for FY23: sales are expected to grow 6% YoY to ~130mnst
💰To recap, in mid-April, the BoD approved a new buyback programme (up to USD 1bn, implying a ~30% yield through the repurchase period), as well as a regular quarterly cash dividend of USD 0.075/sh. For 1Q23, the miner declared its first for 3.5 years, in line with the new policy, offering a ~0.3% DY, on our numbers
📊At spot, the company’s 2Q23F EBITDA might be moderately stronger QoQ, amid potentially higher sales from the completion of the longwall move at Wambo
#BTU #coal
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/BTU_US/
✏️Peabody's quarterly revenues have again outperformed both the consensus and us, with the 1Q23 numbers being 14% and 17% higher, respectively, driven by greater (than expected) proceeds from spot coal sales and other activities. However, the growth in cash costs limited the positive effect on EBITDA (+11% vs. the consensus and +10% vs. us)
❗️The coal miner reiterated its guidance for FY23: sales are expected to grow 6% YoY to ~130mnst
💰To recap, in mid-April, the BoD approved a new buyback programme (up to USD 1bn, implying a ~30% yield through the repurchase period), as well as a regular quarterly cash dividend of USD 0.075/sh. For 1Q23, the miner declared its first for 3.5 years, in line with the new policy, offering a ~0.3% DY, on our numbers
📊At spot, the company’s 2Q23F EBITDA might be moderately stronger QoQ, amid potentially higher sales from the completion of the longwall move at Wambo
#BTU #coal
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/BTU_US/
Morning Bites
🪨 The EU has recently reduced its thermal coal consumption. According to an Ember study, coal energy generation during 4Q22-1Q23 dropped a sharp ~11% YoY. Furthermore, local energy generation from renewables outweighed fossil fuels for the first time. According to the IEA data, the EU accounted for 6% of global coal consumption in 2022 and 12% of world thermal coal imports, which might partially explain the weak thermal coal dynamics in recent months. Meanwhile, the study reveals that the reduction in energy consumption resulted in a ~6% fall (vs. the 5-year average) in EU electricity demand during the period. However, we note that such dynamics were mostly the result of favourable weather conditions (warm winter, strong wind) and so do not rule out a correction in the next 12 months
#coal
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Coal
🪨 The EU has recently reduced its thermal coal consumption. According to an Ember study, coal energy generation during 4Q22-1Q23 dropped a sharp ~11% YoY. Furthermore, local energy generation from renewables outweighed fossil fuels for the first time. According to the IEA data, the EU accounted for 6% of global coal consumption in 2022 and 12% of world thermal coal imports, which might partially explain the weak thermal coal dynamics in recent months. Meanwhile, the study reveals that the reduction in energy consumption resulted in a ~6% fall (vs. the 5-year average) in EU electricity demand during the period. However, we note that such dynamics were mostly the result of favourable weather conditions (warm winter, strong wind) and so do not rule out a correction in the next 12 months
#coal
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Coal
Agnico Eagle 1Q23 results - firmly above consensus
📝Agnico Eagle has published 1Q23 revenues that outperformed the consensus (+5%), but were slightly below our forecast (-4%). EBITDA was significantly higher than the consensus and roughly in line with us (+10% and +2% respectively). Sales came in slightly lower than we had anticipated, though cash costs were also lower, by 4%
📈Meanwhile, the company's TCC grew ~3% QoQ, and management sees further growth — by an average 4% in 2023 to USD 865/oz
⛏The miner reiterated its production guidance for 2023. Expected payable gold output in 2023 remains unchanged at approximately 3.24-3.44mnoz (~6% YoY growth)
📌At spot, we expect Agnico Eagle's 2Q23F EBITDA to show moderate improvement QoQ, bolstered by the slight production recovery and conducive prices environment: the current gold price is ~5% higher than the 1Q23 average
#AEM #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/AEM_US/
📝Agnico Eagle has published 1Q23 revenues that outperformed the consensus (+5%), but were slightly below our forecast (-4%). EBITDA was significantly higher than the consensus and roughly in line with us (+10% and +2% respectively). Sales came in slightly lower than we had anticipated, though cash costs were also lower, by 4%
📈Meanwhile, the company's TCC grew ~3% QoQ, and management sees further growth — by an average 4% in 2023 to USD 865/oz
⛏The miner reiterated its production guidance for 2023. Expected payable gold output in 2023 remains unchanged at approximately 3.24-3.44mnoz (~6% YoY growth)
📌At spot, we expect Agnico Eagle's 2Q23F EBITDA to show moderate improvement QoQ, bolstered by the slight production recovery and conducive prices environment: the current gold price is ~5% higher than the 1Q23 average
#AEM #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/AEM_US/
Week ahead data releases in M&M
Among the major M&M names reporting this week, Barrick and ArcelorMittal are due to release their 1Q23 financials. For the former, our EBITDA estimate is moderately below the consensus estimate, while our forecast for ArcelorMittal is slightly more upbeat
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Among the major M&M names reporting this week, Barrick and ArcelorMittal are due to release their 1Q23 financials. For the former, our EBITDA estimate is moderately below the consensus estimate, while our forecast for ArcelorMittal is slightly more upbeat
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Morning Bites
🇨🇱Chile’s copper production was down 5% YoY in March, after the 3% YoY drop in February. The mining industry in Chile is facing a persistent drought and unfavourable structural impacts (e.g. grade depletion), which are hindering production and keeping it at subdued levels. Chile contributes 27% of global copper production, so if these factors persist, they could offset the potential benefits of upcoming projects like Kamoa, QB2 and Udokan, which are due to launch in 2023
🇵🇪Peru’s copper output surged 20% YoY in March, after the 11% YoY growth in February. This sharp rise in production is in line with the government's plan to increase annual production. We believe that the growing output is likely already priced in following the recovery in the previous month and because the issues related to the protests have been completely resolved
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
🇨🇱Chile’s copper production was down 5% YoY in March, after the 3% YoY drop in February. The mining industry in Chile is facing a persistent drought and unfavourable structural impacts (e.g. grade depletion), which are hindering production and keeping it at subdued levels. Chile contributes 27% of global copper production, so if these factors persist, they could offset the potential benefits of upcoming projects like Kamoa, QB2 and Udokan, which are due to launch in 2023
🇵🇪Peru’s copper output surged 20% YoY in March, after the 11% YoY growth in February. This sharp rise in production is in line with the government's plan to increase annual production. We believe that the growing output is likely already priced in following the recovery in the previous month and because the issues related to the protests have been completely resolved
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
Morning Bites
⛏Fortescue has commenced production at its Iron Bridge mine in Western Australia, the company reports. The site's targeted production is 22mnt, representing ~1.5% of the global seaborne market in 2022E. The mine's launch was initially planned by the late 1Q23, but the opening was postponed until late April. Hence, we believe that the new capacity is likely to have already been priced-in by the market
🇨🇱Codelco’s cash costs surged 34% YoY in 1Q23 to USD 4.5k/t, according to the company’s financials. The figure was already above the state-owned miner’s FY23 cost guidance of USD 4.2-4.4k/t. Overall, the news is in-line with continuous grade depletion in Chile and growing cost pressures globally, which might add some support to the sentiment on copper markets. To recap, Codelco accounts for ~30% of Chile's mined copper, and ~7% of the world's
#iron_ore #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
⛏Fortescue has commenced production at its Iron Bridge mine in Western Australia, the company reports. The site's targeted production is 22mnt, representing ~1.5% of the global seaborne market in 2022E. The mine's launch was initially planned by the late 1Q23, but the opening was postponed until late April. Hence, we believe that the new capacity is likely to have already been priced-in by the market
🇨🇱Codelco’s cash costs surged 34% YoY in 1Q23 to USD 4.5k/t, according to the company’s financials. The figure was already above the state-owned miner’s FY23 cost guidance of USD 4.2-4.4k/t. Overall, the news is in-line with continuous grade depletion in Chile and growing cost pressures globally, which might add some support to the sentiment on copper markets. To recap, Codelco accounts for ~30% of Chile's mined copper, and ~7% of the world's
#iron_ore #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Barrick 1Q23 results - EBITDA meets expectations
📝Barrick's 1Q23 revenues came roughly in line with estimates (-3% vs. the consensus and -1% vs. us). Meanwhile, on a consolidated basis, EBITDA was slightly above our forecast (+2%)
📉During the last quarter, the company's AISC jumped 10% QoQ to USD 1,370/oz. However, Barrick sees some normalisation at the level of USD 1,170 - 1,250/oz in 2023
📈The gold miner reiterated its FY23 production guidance, which implies output growth of ~6% YoY
💰The BoD has declared quarterly dividends of USD 0.10/sh., which implies a good 0.5% DY, in line with the dividend policy
📌At spot prices, Barrick's 2Q23F EBITDA might show a notable increase QoQ, bolstered by potentially higher sales volumes and favourable prices: gold is currently ~5% higher than the 1Q23 average
#GOLD #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/GOLD_US/
📝Barrick's 1Q23 revenues came roughly in line with estimates (-3% vs. the consensus and -1% vs. us). Meanwhile, on a consolidated basis, EBITDA was slightly above our forecast (+2%)
📉During the last quarter, the company's AISC jumped 10% QoQ to USD 1,370/oz. However, Barrick sees some normalisation at the level of USD 1,170 - 1,250/oz in 2023
📈The gold miner reiterated its FY23 production guidance, which implies output growth of ~6% YoY
💰The BoD has declared quarterly dividends of USD 0.10/sh., which implies a good 0.5% DY, in line with the dividend policy
📌At spot prices, Barrick's 2Q23F EBITDA might show a notable increase QoQ, bolstered by potentially higher sales volumes and favourable prices: gold is currently ~5% higher than the 1Q23 average
#GOLD #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/GOLD_US/
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏦 Global central banks' reserves remained basically unchanged in March, purchasing only 0.2t (net) of gold (vs. the revised 58.3t in February), the World Gold Council reports. The main buyers were China and Singapore (18.0t and 17.3t, respectively). On the sellers’ side were Turkey (-15.3t), Uzbekistan (-11.2t) and Kazakhstan (-10.5t). Despite some slowdown in reserves accumulation by central banks, we keep our positive view on the precious metal’s price amid inflation pressures and the unfavourable macroeconomic conditions globally. In addition, the recent poll by HSBC showed that most reserve managers are set to increase their gold holdings YoY
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏦 Global central banks' reserves remained basically unchanged in March, purchasing only 0.2t (net) of gold (vs. the revised 58.3t in February), the World Gold Council reports. The main buyers were China and Singapore (18.0t and 17.3t, respectively). On the sellers’ side were Turkey (-15.3t), Uzbekistan (-11.2t) and Kazakhstan (-10.5t). Despite some slowdown in reserves accumulation by central banks, we keep our positive view on the precious metal’s price amid inflation pressures and the unfavourable macroeconomic conditions globally. In addition, the recent poll by HSBC showed that most reserve managers are set to increase their gold holdings YoY
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed negative dynamics in April. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 45.8 (consensus estimate - 45.5) from 47.3 in March, its lowest point since May 2020. The US ISM manufacturing PMI, however, rose to 47.1 (from the recent three-year low of 46.3)
🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China fell further, to 49.2 in April (from 51.9 in March), missing market estimates of 51.4. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI also fell, to 49.5 in April (from 50.0), missing market forecasts of 50.3
❗️The manufacturing sector is facing a contraction globally, as indicated by PMIs below 50.0. The unexpected sharp falls in the EU and China might negatively affect the demand for industrial metals. Nevertheless, we reiterate our view that demand for industrial metals in 2023 is likely to be bolstered by China's ongoing post-covid recovery and its plans for massive infrastructure projects
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed negative dynamics in April. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 45.8 (consensus estimate - 45.5) from 47.3 in March, its lowest point since May 2020. The US ISM manufacturing PMI, however, rose to 47.1 (from the recent three-year low of 46.3)
🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China fell further, to 49.2 in April (from 51.9 in March), missing market estimates of 51.4. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI also fell, to 49.5 in April (from 50.0), missing market forecasts of 50.3
❗️The manufacturing sector is facing a contraction globally, as indicated by PMIs below 50.0. The unexpected sharp falls in the EU and China might negatively affect the demand for industrial metals. Nevertheless, we reiterate our view that demand for industrial metals in 2023 is likely to be bolstered by China's ongoing post-covid recovery and its plans for massive infrastructure projects
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
ArcelorMittal 1Q23 results - EBITDA beats consensus
✏️ArcelorMittal's 1Q23 revenues outperformed the market estimates (+6% vs. the consensus and +14% vs. us), mainly amid better realised prices and sales in the NAFTA segment. Meanwhile, the increase in cash costs was greater than we had expected, which limited the positive effect on EBITDA (+12% vs. the consensus and +8% vs. us)
🏭The steelmaker maintained its
guidance, expecting FY23 steel shipments to grow ~5% YoY. Furthermore, the producer sees ex-China steel demand gaining 2-3% YoY in 2023
💰The company announced a new buyback (up to 85mn shares) through May 2025, implying a yield of some 10.4% through the repurchase period. The BoD also approved an annual base dividend of USD 0.44/sh., implying a 1.6% DY
❗️Overall, at spot, Arcelor’s 2Q23 EBITDA might be materially higher QoQ, supported by the substantial recovery in US/EU steel prices, on our numbers
#MT #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/MT_US/
✏️ArcelorMittal's 1Q23 revenues outperformed the market estimates (+6% vs. the consensus and +14% vs. us), mainly amid better realised prices and sales in the NAFTA segment. Meanwhile, the increase in cash costs was greater than we had expected, which limited the positive effect on EBITDA (+12% vs. the consensus and +8% vs. us)
🏭The steelmaker maintained its
guidance, expecting FY23 steel shipments to grow ~5% YoY. Furthermore, the producer sees ex-China steel demand gaining 2-3% YoY in 2023
💰The company announced a new buyback (up to 85mn shares) through May 2025, implying a yield of some 10.4% through the repurchase period. The BoD also approved an annual base dividend of USD 0.44/sh., implying a 1.6% DY
❗️Overall, at spot, Arcelor’s 2Q23 EBITDA might be materially higher QoQ, supported by the substantial recovery in US/EU steel prices, on our numbers
#MT #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/MT_US/
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎US jewellery sales shrank 9% YoY in March, after the revised 7% YoY drop in February, according to the Department of Commerce. This was the biggest monthly fall since early-2020, following the effects of Covid-19. According to IDEX, the dynamics might reflect US clients' concerns about the turbulence in the domestic banking sector. Hence, we reiterate our view that the decline in US jewellery sales (for the sixth consecutive month, except for the <1% growth in January) might keep weighing on the demand for rough diamonds, at least in the near future. We also remind our readers that the US accounts for ~50% of world diamond jewellery sales
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎US jewellery sales shrank 9% YoY in March, after the revised 7% YoY drop in February, according to the Department of Commerce. This was the biggest monthly fall since early-2020, following the effects of Covid-19. According to IDEX, the dynamics might reflect US clients' concerns about the turbulence in the domestic banking sector. Hence, we reiterate our view that the decline in US jewellery sales (for the sixth consecutive month, except for the <1% growth in January) might keep weighing on the demand for rough diamonds, at least in the near future. We also remind our readers that the US accounts for ~50% of world diamond jewellery sales
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales surged 165% YoY in March, following the 129% YoY growth in February. According to government data, monthly sales in March reached their highest since January 2020. In addition to the low base effect from Covid-19 restrictions (e.g. Hong Kong’s border with the Mainland was only reopened in February 2023), the robust recovery was also driven by improved consumer sentiment. In our view, this might slightly support demand, though the impact is limited
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales surged 165% YoY in March, following the 129% YoY growth in February. According to government data, monthly sales in March reached their highest since January 2020. In addition to the low base effect from Covid-19 restrictions (e.g. Hong Kong’s border with the Mainland was only reopened in February 2023), the robust recovery was also driven by improved consumer sentiment. In our view, this might slightly support demand, though the impact is limited
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds