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Global Metals&Mining Research from Glush&Team. No investment advice, just numbers & charts!
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Morning Bites

🔗China’s crude steel output grew 7% YoY in March, in line with the 7% YoY growth in January-February. According to Reuters, steel mills boosted their output amid improved margins and the expected robust downstream demand during the peak construction activity season. In addition, the strong Chinese March PMIs might indicate a potential recovery in domestic steel demand

🏢China's property sales were flat YoY in March (vs. -4% YoY in January-February), but still 20% below the historical highs of 2021. The decline in floor space starts accelerated to 29% YoY last month, after the 9% YoY drop in January-February. However, personal mortgage loans jumped 20% YoY (vs. -15% in January-February), while property completions also grew 31% YoY in March (vs. 8% YoY growth in January-February). Despite the uncertainty in the real estate segment, China’s strong liquidity injections data might add support to local construction activity in 2023

#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 1)

💍China’s jewellery retailers reported growth of 12-66% in LFL (same store) sales of gem-set jewellery in 1Q23. As such, Chow Tai Fook published 12% YoY growth in LFL sales of gem-set, platinum and K-gold jewellery in 1Q23. Sales in Mainland China were down 19% YoY, while HK and Macau sales roughly doubled (+99% YoY). Meanwhile, Luk Fook reported a 66% YoY increase in LFL gem-set jewellery sales in 1Q23. Although the retailer’s gem-set jewellery sales shrank 15% YoY in Mainland China, they jumped 88% YoY in HK and Macau. The overall dynamics were positive, following the easing of Beijing’s anti-Covid policies and the opening of HK's border with the Mainland in early February. To recap, China accounts for ~15% of global diamond jewellery retail sales. Hence, some recovery in Asia’s trading might be a moderately positive factor for rough diamond demand

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)

⛓️The World Steel Association (WSA) expects global steel demand to rise 2.3% YoY in 2023. Its previous forecast was for 1.0% YoY demand growth. For 2024, the WSA expects deceleration to a 1.7% YoY demand increase. Per the report, China’s demand is to climb 2.0% YoY in 2023, amid a pickup in the local property sector (following government support measures). Nevertheless, China’s demand is to remain flat in 2024 YoY, the report forecasts, leaving global consumption growth in 2024 to be driven by regions other than China, the WSA believes. Noteworthy is that the WSA expects ex-China steel consumption to grow 2.6% and 3.6% YoY in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Overall, if these estimates, along with the previously reported limitations on China's steel output, materialise, steel and raw materials prices (e.g. iron ore and coking coal) would be supported in coming years

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites

🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations jumped 26% YoY in March from a low base, accelerating from the 13% YoY growth in February. The results were in line with preliminary estimates. Nevertheless, the figure was still 20% below the pre-COVID 2019 level (vs. -21% in February). We keep our negative outlook on EU car sales, given EV adoption and the economic slowdown. Weak car sales data is an adverse factor for PGMs demand. EU + UK accounted for 20% and 32% of the world auto-catalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2022E

#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
Alcoa 1Q23 results - EBITDA misses forecasts

✏️1Q23 revenues dropped 19% YoY due to lower realised prices and sales volumes, 4% behind the consensus and roughly in line with us. Adjusted EBITDA, meanwhile, was down 78% YoY in 1Q23, 3% short of the consensus and 9% lower than our estimates. Nevertheless, after the previous quarter's decline, adj. EBITDA has partially recovered, mostly due to higher prices for aluminum and alumina and lower energy costs in Europe

The company reiterated its FY23 sales guidance: aluminium and alumina shipments are both to decrease ~2% YoY, on average

❗️At spot prices, we expect EBITDA to materially improve QoQ in 2Q23, bolstered by sales volumes recovery and profitability improvement

#AA #Aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/company/AA_US
Morning Bites

⛏️China is to accelerate the construction of its iron ore projects. The government is aiming to increase domestic supply amid recent concerns about rising iron ore prices and the heavy dependence on imports. According to Reuters, the world’s largest iron ore consumer imports >70% of its needs. China is targeting output of 350mnt by 2025, which would be an increase of ~50% from 2022E. Were that to happen, it might put pressure on iron ore prices, as the anticipated increase is equal to 7% of the global seaborne market. However, we think that such an ambitious production increase might be overly upbeat, given the strict timeline

#iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Freeport McMoran 1Q23 results - EBITDA ahead of consensus
  
✏️1Q23 revenues fell ~18% YoY, due to lower realised copper prices. However, the top-line beat both the consensus and our estimates by 4% and 2%, respectively. Meanwhile, adjusted EBITDA was 37% weaker YoY (+11% vs. consensus and +5% vs. us)

The miner reiterated its FY23 copper production outlook, while the figure for gold was increased by ~5% vs. the previous reading. We note that unit cash costs guidance was also slightly lowered, by ~3%
  
❗️We expect 2Q23 EBITDA to grow by high-single digits QoQ, amid the recovery of Grasberg mine's operations and a slight increase in commodity prices (e.g. copper and gold), at spot

#FCX #copper  
https://metals-wire.com/company/FCX_US
Week ahead data releases in M&M

Among the major M&M names reporting this week, Vale, Teck and Newmont are due to release their 1Q23 financials. For these miners, our EBITDA estimates are moderately above the consensus estimates

#reporting_season 
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗Global crude steel output was up 2% YoY to 165mnt in March, after the 1% YoY decline in February, according to the World Steel Association. China’s production grew 7% YoY, but this was likely due to the low base effect from 2022 and the local economic recovery. Nevertheless, Beijing might soon announce a limit on national steel output (58% of the global steel supply in March) at its 2022 levels. Ex-China steel production shrank 5% YoY. In particular, EU production dropped 6% YoY (after the -13% YoY in February), following the local energy crisis. US steel production also declined, down 2% YoY (-5% YoY). Russia’s steel output was flat YoY in March, after the 9% YoY drop in February

#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
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Morning Bites (part 2)

🇨🇱Chile aims to enhance lithium industry consolidation under state control, the country’s president announced on Thursday. Following the decision of the Mexican government to increase control over its Li resources, Chile, one of the world's leading two lithium producers, declared the similar measure. Two companies currently mine lithium in Chile, Albemarle and SQM. Their concessions are set to expire in 2043 and 2030, respectively, but the government is not planning to terminate these contracts itself. Meanwhile, Chile aims to create a regional lithium association with Argentina and Bolivia: these three countries together account for 53% of global lithium resources and ~35% of the world's mined production in 2022E

#lithium 
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Lithium
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Morning Bites (part 1)

🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales dropped 27% YoY in April (domestic + export), vs. the 31% YoY decline in March, according to the China Construction Machinery Association. Meanwhile, domestic excavator sales declined 44% YoY, roughly in line with the 48% YoY fall in March. Export sales continued to grow, being up 6% YoY (vs. +11% YoY in March). As one of the key indicators of construction activity, excavator sales continue to follow the downtrend which has been in place since May 2021. Although the dynamics indicate an ongoing stagnation in the Chinese property segment, liquidity inflows, together with China's plan for massive infrastructure projects, might bolster the demand for steel and industrial metals (e.g. aluminium and copper) later in 2023

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)

🏆China’s gold production was up 7% YoY in 1Q23 (vs. +11% YoY in 4Q22), according to the China Gold Association. In particular, the mined gold output rose 2% YoY. The figures were partly bolstered by a jump in demand, as investors turned to less volatile assets, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, the country's gold consumption grew 12% YoY in 1Q23 (vs. -27% YoY in 4Q22), amid the 12% and 20% YoY increase in gold jewellery and bars&coins demand, respectively. We reiterate our view that China’s rising gold output (~9% of world metal's output) might be a negative factor for the commodity's prices. However, we are still bullish on gold, amid strong demand prospects

#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Cleveland-Cliffs 1Q23 results — EBITDA outperforms

✏️Cleveland-Cliffs 1Q23 revenues beat both the consensus and us, mainly amid sales that were 4% higher than we had expected and an average realised price that was 8% above our expectations. EBITDA also beat market expectations (+24% vs. consensus and +16% vs. our estimates)

🏭Meanwhile, the company achieved >4mnt steel shipments in 1Q23. Hence, Cliff is on track to meet its FY23 sales guidance of 16mnt, in our view (vs. 14.8mnt in FY22)

❗️Overall, at spot, the US steelmaker’s 2Q23 EBITDA is likely to be significantly higher QoQ, bolstered by an improvement on the domestic market and a rebound in local HRC/CRC prices

#CLF #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/CLF_US/
Morning Bites (part 1) 
     
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production decreased 1.4% to 2.29mnt in mid-April from the first ten days of the month (YoY growth of 2.7%). Meanwhile, local steel inventories increased 1.2% over the same period (-5.7% YoY). Although production (on an annual basis) has been growing continuously since early February, Beijing might soon announce a limit on national output at the level of 2022. Furthermore, CISA is urging steelmakers to cut production amid low domestic steel prices (on our numbers, they shrank over 20% YoY, but are still 8% higher YTD), that are posing challenges to the mills. Overall, these two factors are likely to be supportive for the sentiment on the steel segment globally

#steel 
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
1
Morning Bites (part 2)

🌕Most central banks are set to raise their gold holdings in 2023, according to poll results by the HSBC Reserve Management Trends Survey. Specifically, more than two thirds of 83 reserve managers believe their peers will increase gold holdings this year, citing inflation and geopolitical risks as the most important concerns. We remind our readers that global institutions already boosted purchases 2.5x YoY to 1,136t in 2022, while they kept buying gold in 2mo23. Hence, the news is in line with the current dynamics and our bullish view on the yellow metal, amid the substantial growth in physical gold demand and unfavourable macroeconomic conditions globally

#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Teck 1Q23 results - in-line with expectations

📝The miner's 1Q23 revenues were weaker than we had expected (-6% vs. the consensus and -12% vs. us), mostly amid lower proceeds from the copper business unit. However, the cash costs line was more upbeat, and EBITDA thus arrived broadly in-line with consensus and us

The miner reiterated its FY23 guidance, expecting copper output to jump >40% YoY due to the ramp up of the QB2 project (the Quebrada Blanca production outlook remained unchanged, at 150-180kt, for this year)

📌At spot, we expect Teck's 2Q23F EBITDA to grow in low-single digits QoQ, bolstered by gradual production growth, despite some slowdown in prices across most of the company's commodity basket

#TECK #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/TECK_US/
First Quantum 1Q23 results -  EBITDA disappoints
 
📝The company's 1Q23 revenues came below market expectations, following materially weaker gold/copper sales volumes than we had expected. Meanwhile, the negative effect on EBITDA (-23% vs. consensus and -28% vs. us) was even stronger, due to higher unit cash costs
 
📌According to the miner, its C1 copper cash cost surged 20% QoQ and ~40% YoY to USD 2.24/lb in 1Q23, affected by lower production. However, First Quantum sees the figure normalising to USD 1.65-1.85/lb in FY23
 
🏭The company has reiterated its outlook for 2023: copper production to grow ~4% YoY, with gold output remaining relatively flat
 
📌At spot prices, we expect the miner's 2Q23 EBITDA to see a substantial rebound QoQ, amid a potentially lower costs burden and operations at Cobre Panama recovering -  local authorities and First Quantum agreed on the details for the copper mine contract in early-March
 
#FM #copper 
https://metals-wire.com/company/FM_CN/
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Morning Bites (part 1)

📈Russia’s gold output was up 9.1% YoY in March, after the 6.9% YoY increase in February, according to Rosstat. We believe this was partially due to the low base of 2022. Despite some recovery in Russian domestic production (~9% of global mined gold supply), we maintain our positive view on the precious metal amid strong physical demand, rising cash costs and turbulence in the global economy. To recap, according to the recent study by HSBC, most central banks’ reserve managers are likely to increase their gold holdings further in 2023. In our view, that might add more support to the already elevated physical gold demand

#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 2)

Global EV sales are set to gain 35% YoY in 2023
, according to an International Energy Agency (IEA) report. Meanwhile, the agency envisages further growth of the EV share of total car sales from 14% in 2022 to 18% in 2023. China was the main EV consumer last year, representing ~60% of global demand, and the agency expects the country to retain its position in the coming years. Overall, the IEA’s forecast for 2023 is more bullish than our market estimates, and supports our expectations of increasing appetite for EVs globally. We believe this dynamic will further bolster demand for the battery metals basket (e.g. lithium, nickel and cobalt)

#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt 
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports