Morning Bites
๐Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales rose 129% YoY in February, after the 23% YoY growth in January. The sales in February were the highest total for any month since January 2020, according to the governmentโs data. The data reflects the improvement in consumer sentiment, along with the low comparison base from the previous year due to the COVID-19 restrictions
๐The first copper concentrate has been produced at QB2, Teck reports. The operation targets achieving 285kt โ 315kt (~1.1% of global copper supply in 2025F) of annual copper production in 2024-26F. The mine opening is set to double Teck's copper output on a consolidated basis, as the project ramps up to full production through 2023. We note that Teck owns 60% of the project
#diamonds #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
๐Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales rose 129% YoY in February, after the 23% YoY growth in January. The sales in February were the highest total for any month since January 2020, according to the governmentโs data. The data reflects the improvement in consumer sentiment, along with the low comparison base from the previous year due to the COVID-19 restrictions
๐The first copper concentrate has been produced at QB2, Teck reports. The operation targets achieving 285kt โ 315kt (~1.1% of global copper supply in 2025F) of annual copper production in 2024-26F. The mine opening is set to double Teck's copper output on a consolidated basis, as the project ramps up to full production through 2023. We note that Teck owns 60% of the project
#diamonds #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
๐Global manufacturing PMIs showed negative dynamics in March. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.1 from 48.5 in February. The US ISM manufacturing PMI also dropped, to 46.3, the lowest since May 2020
๐จ๐ณ The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China declined to 51.9 in March from February's near 11-year high of 52.6, but exceeded market estimates of 51.5. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI, however, fell to 50 from 51.6 in February, missing the forecasts of 51.7
โ๏ธThe manufacturing sector in the US and Eurozone is contracting, as indicated by PMIs below 50, which is negative for industrial metals demand. Despite the decline, the Chinese PMIs remain positive, reflecting the countryโs manufacturing sector condition. Nevertheless, this is a dynamic we intend to closely monitor. Generally, the China PMIs support our view that demand for industrial metals is likely to increase due to the country's post-COVID reopening
#PMIs
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๐Global manufacturing PMIs showed negative dynamics in March. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.1 from 48.5 in February. The US ISM manufacturing PMI also dropped, to 46.3, the lowest since May 2020
๐จ๐ณ The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China declined to 51.9 in March from February's near 11-year high of 52.6, but exceeded market estimates of 51.5. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI, however, fell to 50 from 51.6 in February, missing the forecasts of 51.7
โ๏ธThe manufacturing sector in the US and Eurozone is contracting, as indicated by PMIs below 50, which is negative for industrial metals demand. Despite the decline, the Chinese PMIs remain positive, reflecting the countryโs manufacturing sector condition. Nevertheless, this is a dynamic we intend to closely monitor. Generally, the China PMIs support our view that demand for industrial metals is likely to increase due to the country's post-COVID reopening
#PMIs
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Morning Bites (part 2)
๐ต๐ชPeruโs copper output rebounded to 11% YoY growth in February, after the 2% decline YoY in January. This recovery might indicate that the industry has now overcome the impact of the protests. The overall mining sector has also improved as a result of the positive performance in the domestic metallic mining subsector, including higher production of copper and iron ore, according to INEI
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
๐ต๐ชPeruโs copper output rebounded to 11% YoY growth in February, after the 2% decline YoY in January. This recovery might indicate that the industry has now overcome the impact of the protests. The overall mining sector has also improved as a result of the positive performance in the domestic metallic mining subsector, including higher production of copper and iron ore, according to INEI
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
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Morning Bites (part 1)
๐ฆ Global central banks continued to accumulate gold reserves in February, purchasing 51.7t (net) of gold (vs. the revised 73.7t in January), the World Gold Council reports. The main buyers were China and Turkey (24.9t and 22.5t, respectively). There was only one major net seller, Kazakhstan, which reduced its reserves by 13.1t (vs. the 3.9t increase in January). The continuing steady gold demand further supports our positive outlook on gold prices
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
๐ฆ Global central banks continued to accumulate gold reserves in February, purchasing 51.7t (net) of gold (vs. the revised 73.7t in January), the World Gold Council reports. The main buyers were China and Turkey (24.9t and 22.5t, respectively). There was only one major net seller, Kazakhstan, which reduced its reserves by 13.1t (vs. the 3.9t increase in January). The continuing steady gold demand further supports our positive outlook on gold prices
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
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Morning Bites (part 2)
๐จ๐ฑChileโs copper production was down 3% YoY in February, after the 1% YoY growth in January. According to the Chilean Copper Commission, the 15% deterioration in Codelco's production contributed the most to the decline in output. The Chilean mining sector is affected by continuous drought and negative structural effects (e.g grade depletion), keeping production close to its historical lows. If these factors continue to affect mining activities in Chile, which accounts for 27% of the world's mined copper production, they could potentially counterbalance the positive impact of upcoming projects, such as Kamoa, QB2 and Udokan, in 2023
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
๐จ๐ฑChileโs copper production was down 3% YoY in February, after the 1% YoY growth in January. According to the Chilean Copper Commission, the 15% deterioration in Codelco's production contributed the most to the decline in output. The Chilean mining sector is affected by continuous drought and negative structural effects (e.g grade depletion), keeping production close to its historical lows. If these factors continue to affect mining activities in Chile, which accounts for 27% of the world's mined copper production, they could potentially counterbalance the positive impact of upcoming projects, such as Kamoa, QB2 and Udokan, in 2023
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
๐New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany grew 27% YoY in March, according to preliminary data. Nevertheless, the figure was still 27% below the (2019) pre-COVID level. Specifically, in Germany and Spain, car sales were down 30% and 19%, respectively, vs. 2019, while sales in France were 19% lower. Moreover, sales in the UK and Italy were 37% and 13% under 2019, respectively. Given the above countries represent ~70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe, local car sales have likely continued to grow YoY, while remaining below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
๐New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany grew 27% YoY in March, according to preliminary data. Nevertheless, the figure was still 27% below the (2019) pre-COVID level. Specifically, in Germany and Spain, car sales were down 30% and 19%, respectively, vs. 2019, while sales in France were 19% lower. Moreover, sales in the UK and Italy were 37% and 13% under 2019, respectively. Given the above countries represent ~70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe, local car sales have likely continued to grow YoY, while remaining below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 2)
๐US light vehicle sales were up 9% YoY in March from a low base, better than the 5% YoY growth in February but still 15% less than the 2019 level. Seasonally adjusted sales volumes increased 9% YoY in March (-14% vs. 2019). The weak sales data indicates that high car prices, loan payments and growing interest rates are keeping the market under pressure, which underpins our view that automotive demand for PGMs might remain subdued in 2023
#cars
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๐US light vehicle sales were up 9% YoY in March from a low base, better than the 5% YoY growth in February but still 15% less than the 2019 level. Seasonally adjusted sales volumes increased 9% YoY in March (-14% vs. 2019). The weak sales data indicates that high car prices, loan payments and growing interest rates are keeping the market under pressure, which underpins our view that automotive demand for PGMs might remain subdued in 2023
#cars
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Morning Bites (part 3)
๐จ๐ณChina is considering prohibiting the export of rare earth magnet technology to the US. This measure would either ban or restrict exports of technology to process and refine rare earth elements. China dominates the rare earths market in both mining and processing (~63% and 80%, respectively). The demand for rare earths is driven by magnets, which are used in smartphones, EVs and turbines, and the market consensus is bullish on future demand growth
#rare_earths
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๐จ๐ณChina is considering prohibiting the export of rare earth magnet technology to the US. This measure would either ban or restrict exports of technology to process and refine rare earth elements. China dominates the rare earths market in both mining and processing (~63% and 80%, respectively). The demand for rare earths is driven by magnets, which are used in smartphones, EVs and turbines, and the market consensus is bullish on future demand growth
#rare_earths
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Morning Bites (part 4)
๐US jewellery sales were down 3% YoY in February, following the revised <1% YoY decrease in January. The figure was affected by fears of a recession and financial crisis, in our view. Furthermore, the National Retail Federation expects overall US retail sales to remain sluggish throughout 2023, amid adverse macroeconomic conditions. Hence, we maintain our view that the decline in US jewellery sales (for the 5th consecutive month) might further weigh on the demand for rough diamonds โ at least in the short term. We highlight that the US accounts for ~50% of world diamond jewellery sales
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
๐US jewellery sales were down 3% YoY in February, following the revised <1% YoY decrease in January. The figure was affected by fears of a recession and financial crisis, in our view. Furthermore, the National Retail Federation expects overall US retail sales to remain sluggish throughout 2023, amid adverse macroeconomic conditions. Hence, we maintain our view that the decline in US jewellery sales (for the 5th consecutive month) might further weigh on the demand for rough diamonds โ at least in the short term. We highlight that the US accounts for ~50% of world diamond jewellery sales
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
๐CISA mills daily crude steel production increased 0.3% to 2.26mnt in late March from mid-March (YoY growth of 4.7%). Local steel inventories decreased 9.0% over the same period. Production had been growing continuously YoY since early February, which might indicate the positive effects from Chinaโs easing of its Covid-19 restrictions
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
๐CISA mills daily crude steel production increased 0.3% to 2.26mnt in late March from mid-March (YoY growth of 4.7%). Local steel inventories decreased 9.0% over the same period. Production had been growing continuously YoY since early February, which might indicate the positive effects from Chinaโs easing of its Covid-19 restrictions
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
๐Gold-backed ETFs increased their holdings 32t in March (after the 34t decline in February), the first rise since April 2022. According to the WGC, last month gold ETFs saw inflows in the EU (+18t) and in N. America (+12t), which is in line with the previous data. We consider ETFs as one of the main factors affecting gold performance and, along with CB net purchases, substantial growth in physical gold demand during 4Q22 and the worsening macroeconomic conditions, this strong data supports our bullish view on the precious metal's price
#ETF #gold
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๐Gold-backed ETFs increased their holdings 32t in March (after the 34t decline in February), the first rise since April 2022. According to the WGC, last month gold ETFs saw inflows in the EU (+18t) and in N. America (+12t), which is in line with the previous data. We consider ETFs as one of the main factors affecting gold performance and, along with CB net purchases, substantial growth in physical gold demand during 4Q22 and the worsening macroeconomic conditions, this strong data supports our bullish view on the precious metal's price
#ETF #gold
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Morning Bites (part 1)
๐จ๐ณIn March, the PBoC increased its gold reserves 18t, to a total of 2,068t, after the 25t growth in February. Historically, when ะกhina's central bank has started buying gold, the process has lasted as much as a year (as in 2015-16 and 2019). This suggests the possibility of further purchases in 2023, which could potentially bolster the gold investment case. The latter supports our positive view on the precious metal. Together with global institutions, which more than doubled their gold purchases YoY in 2022, gold-backed ETFs also increased their holdings 32t in March, the first positive inflow in 11 months
#ETF #gold
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๐จ๐ณIn March, the PBoC increased its gold reserves 18t, to a total of 2,068t, after the 25t growth in February. Historically, when ะกhina's central bank has started buying gold, the process has lasted as much as a year (as in 2015-16 and 2019). This suggests the possibility of further purchases in 2023, which could potentially bolster the gold investment case. The latter supports our positive view on the precious metal. Together with global institutions, which more than doubled their gold purchases YoY in 2022, gold-backed ETFs also increased their holdings 32t in March, the first positive inflow in 11 months
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
โขGermany is to shut down the last three nuclear plants. The remaining stations are to be closed on 15 April after the three-month extension (due to the local energy crisis), in line with the plan. The measure was taken despite some concerns about whether renewable energy would be able to supply Germany's entire power system all on its own. On our numbers, the three German reactors account for 3% of the EU's, and 1% of global, uranium requirements. Hence, the impact on uranium demand is likely to be limited, with most of the negative effect probably already priced in by the market
#uranium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Uranium
โขGermany is to shut down the last three nuclear plants. The remaining stations are to be closed on 15 April after the three-month extension (due to the local energy crisis), in line with the plan. The measure was taken despite some concerns about whether renewable energy would be able to supply Germany's entire power system all on its own. On our numbers, the three German reactors account for 3% of the EU's, and 1% of global, uranium requirements. Hence, the impact on uranium demand is likely to be limited, with most of the negative effect probably already priced in by the market
#uranium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Uranium
Morning Bites (part 3)
๐The US is to impose stricter EV tax credit rules on 18 April, amid plans to limit the country's dependence on Chinese battery supplies, Reuters reports. Under the new requirement, >50% of battery value must be assembled in North America to qualify the vehicle for a USD 3,750 credit. In order to receive the full USD 7,500 credit, >40% of the critical minerals' value must be sourced from the US or a free trade partner (e.g. Japan). Per estimates from market participants, the new rule eliminates 70% of models from qualification for any federal tax credit (previously only 21 vehicles were eligible for the full benefit). In our view, this might add some stress to EV availability in the US (8% of global sales), which could in turn slightly affect the global demand for the battery metals basket (nickel, lithium and cobalt) in the medium term
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
๐The US is to impose stricter EV tax credit rules on 18 April, amid plans to limit the country's dependence on Chinese battery supplies, Reuters reports. Under the new requirement, >50% of battery value must be assembled in North America to qualify the vehicle for a USD 3,750 credit. In order to receive the full USD 7,500 credit, >40% of the critical minerals' value must be sourced from the US or a free trade partner (e.g. Japan). Per estimates from market participants, the new rule eliminates 70% of models from qualification for any federal tax credit (previously only 21 vehicles were eligible for the full benefit). In our view, this might add some stress to EV availability in the US (8% of global sales), which could in turn slightly affect the global demand for the battery metals basket (nickel, lithium and cobalt) in the medium term
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
๐Chinaโs preliminary excavator sales dropped 31% YoY in March (domestic + export), vs. the 12% YoY decline in February, based on industry estimates provided by SteelOrbis. The decline in domestic excavator sales accelerated to 48% YoY, after the 33% YoY fall in February. Export sales continued to grow, 11% YoY, in March (vs. 34% YoY in February). The still weak domestic sales imply no recovery for the stagnant Chinese real estate segment in the short term. However, despite the slowdown in Chinese PMIs, they are still in positive territory, which might bolster domestic construction activity together with demand for industrial metals in 2023, in our view
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
๐Chinaโs preliminary excavator sales dropped 31% YoY in March (domestic + export), vs. the 12% YoY decline in February, based on industry estimates provided by SteelOrbis. The decline in domestic excavator sales accelerated to 48% YoY, after the 33% YoY fall in February. Export sales continued to grow, 11% YoY, in March (vs. 34% YoY in February). The still weak domestic sales imply no recovery for the stagnant Chinese real estate segment in the short term. However, despite the slowdown in Chinese PMIs, they are still in positive territory, which might bolster domestic construction activity together with demand for industrial metals in 2023, in our view
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
๐ต๐ชPeru is aiming to increase copper output 15% YoY in 2023, after the 5% YoY growth in 2022. The world's second largest copper producer announced the plans to mine 2.8mnt in 2023 (11% of global copper supply in 2023F), after the protest issues were resolved. The news might already be partially priced in after the positive output data in February, in our view
๐Sigma Lithium is to start production at Grota do Cirilo in a few days, as the hard rock lithium mine has received its operating licence, Reuters reports. The mine is slated to ramp up slowly in the coming months and reach an annual production rate of 270kt of spodumene concentrate (~61kt LCE) by July, which would 6% of global lithium supply for 2023F, on our numbers. To recap, the project is to triple to 173kt LCE in 2024. As the project is opening in line with the company's plans, we anticipate no material impact on the market sentiment
#copper #lithium
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๐ต๐ชPeru is aiming to increase copper output 15% YoY in 2023, after the 5% YoY growth in 2022. The world's second largest copper producer announced the plans to mine 2.8mnt in 2023 (11% of global copper supply in 2023F), after the protest issues were resolved. The news might already be partially priced in after the positive output data in February, in our view
๐Sigma Lithium is to start production at Grota do Cirilo in a few days, as the hard rock lithium mine has received its operating licence, Reuters reports. The mine is slated to ramp up slowly in the coming months and reach an annual production rate of 270kt of spodumene concentrate (~61kt LCE) by July, which would 6% of global lithium supply for 2023F, on our numbers. To recap, the project is to triple to 173kt LCE in 2024. As the project is opening in line with the company's plans, we anticipate no material impact on the market sentiment
#copper #lithium
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
๐De Beers has reported sales of USD 540mn at its third cycle in 2023, 2% softer than the historical average and 5% lower YoY (vs. -24% YoY at the second cycle in 2023). According to De Beers CEO Al Cook, the miner faced good demand for rough stones, while it is seeing some positive trends in consumer demand for gem-set jewellery. Despite the minor upbeat sentiment from the sightโs results, we keep our cautious view on the segment - De Beers YTD sales are still 21% lower YoY, while the US jewellery data has been consistently soft since late-2022. In addition, the unfavourable macroeconomic conditions globally still pose risks to the diamond sector
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
๐De Beers has reported sales of USD 540mn at its third cycle in 2023, 2% softer than the historical average and 5% lower YoY (vs. -24% YoY at the second cycle in 2023). According to De Beers CEO Al Cook, the miner faced good demand for rough stones, while it is seeing some positive trends in consumer demand for gem-set jewellery. Despite the minor upbeat sentiment from the sightโs results, we keep our cautious view on the segment - De Beers YTD sales are still 21% lower YoY, while the US jewellery data has been consistently soft since late-2022. In addition, the unfavourable macroeconomic conditions globally still pose risks to the diamond sector
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
๐ฆChinaโs aggregate financing grew 16% YoY in March to CNY 5.38tn, exceeding the consensus estimate by 20%. Specifically, traditional bank loans gained 24% YoY, beating the consensus by 20%. The continued financing growth, together with the positive local PMIs, underpin our view for industrial metals. To recap, China represents 52% of global steel consumption, as well as 55% and 58% of world copper and aluminium demand, respectively
#global
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๐ฆChinaโs aggregate financing grew 16% YoY in March to CNY 5.38tn, exceeding the consensus estimate by 20%. Specifically, traditional bank loans gained 24% YoY, beating the consensus by 20%. The continued financing growth, together with the positive local PMIs, underpin our view for industrial metals. To recap, China represents 52% of global steel consumption, as well as 55% and 58% of world copper and aluminium demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 3)
๐Chinaโs new internal combustion engine car sales grew 3% YoY in March (-25% vs. March 2019). The overall sector performance is still below the pre-Covid level, which, along with the growing popularity of EVs, continues to pressure the demand for PGMs. Chinaโs auto sector accounts for some 26% and 17% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
๐New EV sales in China increased 35% YoY in March, after the 56% YoY surge in February. The EV sector is driving up the demand for battery metals such as cobalt, lithium, and nickel, while China has accounted for half of global EV sales in recent months. Hence, this growth might bolster the demand for the battery metals
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
๐Chinaโs new internal combustion engine car sales grew 3% YoY in March (-25% vs. March 2019). The overall sector performance is still below the pre-Covid level, which, along with the growing popularity of EVs, continues to pressure the demand for PGMs. Chinaโs auto sector accounts for some 26% and 17% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
๐New EV sales in China increased 35% YoY in March, after the 56% YoY surge in February. The EV sector is driving up the demand for battery metals such as cobalt, lithium, and nickel, while China has accounted for half of global EV sales in recent months. Hence, this growth might bolster the demand for the battery metals
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports