Morning Bites (Part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output grew 7% YoY in January-February, after the 10% YoY drop in December. According to Reuters, these dynamics were due to domestic producers anticipating a pick-up in demand in March. Meanwhile, apparent steel consumption was up 4% YoY, vs. the 11% YoY decrease in December. To recap, the strong February PMIs in China indicate a potential recovery in domestic steel demand
🏢China's property sales dropped 4% YoY in January-February (vs. -32% YoY in December). This was 13% lower than the 2021 level. Floor space starts were down 9% YoY (-20% vs. 2021) in the last two months, after the 44% YoY decline in December. Personal mortgage loans came in 15% lower YoY (vs. -29% in December). However, property completions grew 8% YoY in January-February (vs. -7% YoY in December). Despite the still weak real estate segment, China’s strong liquidity injections data might bolster local construction activity in 2023
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output grew 7% YoY in January-February, after the 10% YoY drop in December. According to Reuters, these dynamics were due to domestic producers anticipating a pick-up in demand in March. Meanwhile, apparent steel consumption was up 4% YoY, vs. the 11% YoY decrease in December. To recap, the strong February PMIs in China indicate a potential recovery in domestic steel demand
🏢China's property sales dropped 4% YoY in January-February (vs. -32% YoY in December). This was 13% lower than the 2021 level. Floor space starts were down 9% YoY (-20% vs. 2021) in the last two months, after the 44% YoY decline in December. Personal mortgage loans came in 15% lower YoY (vs. -29% in December). However, property completions grew 8% YoY in January-February (vs. -7% YoY in December). Despite the still weak real estate segment, China’s strong liquidity injections data might bolster local construction activity in 2023
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production declined 3.1% to 2.15mnt in early-March from late-Feruary. This represented a 9.8% YoY growth. At the same time, local steel inventories increased 1.6% over the period. Recently, China's authorities announced possible measures to curb inflation in key commodities, which could lead to lower inventories; however, there has been no significant effect yet
🪨China will lift all restrictions on Australian coal imports. To recap, historically, Australia accounted ~30% of Chinese imports. As abovementioned, one of China's goals at present is to stabilise increasing steel prices, which we believe could be the reason behind lifting the restrictions imposed in late 2020
#steel #coal
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🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production declined 3.1% to 2.15mnt in early-March from late-Feruary. This represented a 9.8% YoY growth. At the same time, local steel inventories increased 1.6% over the period. Recently, China's authorities announced possible measures to curb inflation in key commodities, which could lead to lower inventories; however, there has been no significant effect yet
🪨China will lift all restrictions on Australian coal imports. To recap, historically, Australia accounted ~30% of Chinese imports. As abovementioned, one of China's goals at present is to stabilise increasing steel prices, which we believe could be the reason behind lifting the restrictions imposed in late 2020
#steel #coal
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Morning Bites (part 3)
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales dropped 20% YoY in February (-21% vs. February 2019), after the 41% YoY fall in January. Along with falling car sales, we see declining demand for PGMs that might indicate an unfavourable economic situation for the sector, as well as some gradual switch to EVs locally. To recap, China’s auto sector accounts for some 26% and 17% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China grew 56% YoY in January, after the 6% YoY fall in December. Since China has accounted for half of global EV sales in recent months, the dynamics in this sector support the demand for battery metals such as nickel, lithium and cobalt
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
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📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales dropped 20% YoY in February (-21% vs. February 2019), after the 41% YoY fall in January. Along with falling car sales, we see declining demand for PGMs that might indicate an unfavourable economic situation for the sector, as well as some gradual switch to EVs locally. To recap, China’s auto sector accounts for some 26% and 17% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China grew 56% YoY in January, after the 6% YoY fall in December. Since China has accounted for half of global EV sales in recent months, the dynamics in this sector support the demand for battery metals such as nickel, lithium and cobalt
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
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Morning Bites (part 4)
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output declined 15% YoY in January, after the 5% YoY drop in December. Meanwhile, the country’s gold production increased 4% YoY, a turnaround from the 3% YoY decline in December. To recap, domestic production is suffering from inflationary pressure, electricity shortages and logistical issues. Despite SA supply tightening, we do not see this is representing a trigger to push prices, as demand from automakers remains sluggish
#PGMs #gold
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🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output declined 15% YoY in January, after the 5% YoY drop in December. Meanwhile, the country’s gold production increased 4% YoY, a turnaround from the 3% YoY decline in December. To recap, domestic production is suffering from inflationary pressure, electricity shortages and logistical issues. Despite SA supply tightening, we do not see this is representing a trigger to push prices, as demand from automakers remains sluggish
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎Petra Diamonds' LFL rough prices grew 12.5% at the March auction, vs. December. However, the miner's LFL rough prices were still down 11.9% YoY, mostly due to the high base effect. According to Petra CEO Richard Duffy, the upbeat dynamics were supported by China reopening and stronger demand from major jewellers (generally, for smaller categories). However, we keep our cautious view on the diamond sector, following the adverse macroeconomic conditions globally, soft US jewellery data and weak De Beers’ sales in the first 2 cycles of 2023
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
💎Petra Diamonds' LFL rough prices grew 12.5% at the March auction, vs. December. However, the miner's LFL rough prices were still down 11.9% YoY, mostly due to the high base effect. According to Petra CEO Richard Duffy, the upbeat dynamics were supported by China reopening and stronger demand from major jewellers (generally, for smaller categories). However, we keep our cautious view on the diamond sector, following the adverse macroeconomic conditions globally, soft US jewellery data and weak De Beers’ sales in the first 2 cycles of 2023
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
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Morning Bites (part 2)
☢️EnCore Energy has confirmed that operations at its Alta Mesa facility are to resume in 2024 after having been on standby since 2013 due to unfavourable uranium market conditions. The factory capacity is to be 577kt per year (~0.9% of the world's uranium supply in 2022), which is in line with earlier plans and thus already priced in, we believe
🇵🇦First Quantum has resumed operations at its Panama copper mine (~1.5% of global copper supply) following the removal of restrictions from the port of Punta. Last week the government and the company agreed on a new text for their operating agreement. Hence, in our view, most of the effect on sentiment from the production restart is likely to be already priced in
#uranium #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
☢️EnCore Energy has confirmed that operations at its Alta Mesa facility are to resume in 2024 after having been on standby since 2013 due to unfavourable uranium market conditions. The factory capacity is to be 577kt per year (~0.9% of the world's uranium supply in 2022), which is in line with earlier plans and thus already priced in, we believe
🇵🇦First Quantum has resumed operations at its Panama copper mine (~1.5% of global copper supply) following the removal of restrictions from the port of Punta. Last week the government and the company agreed on a new text for their operating agreement. Hence, in our view, most of the effect on sentiment from the production restart is likely to be already priced in
#uranium #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏦China’s aggregate financing surged 2.6x YoY in February to CNY 3.16trn, exceeding the consensus estimate by 44%. Specifically, traditional bank loans gained 47% YoY, beating the consensus by 21%. In January, historically the most important month, China’s liquidity injections data was also strong, staying near record levels. The news underpins our expectations of a recovery in domestic demand for industrial metals in 2023 (steel and base metals), especially amid China's upbeat February PMIs. Of note, the country represents 52% of global steel consumption, as well as 55% and 58% of world copper and aluminium demand, respectively
#global
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🏦China’s aggregate financing surged 2.6x YoY in February to CNY 3.16trn, exceeding the consensus estimate by 44%. Specifically, traditional bank loans gained 47% YoY, beating the consensus by 21%. In January, historically the most important month, China’s liquidity injections data was also strong, staying near record levels. The news underpins our expectations of a recovery in domestic demand for industrial metals in 2023 (steel and base metals), especially amid China's upbeat February PMIs. Of note, the country represents 52% of global steel consumption, as well as 55% and 58% of world copper and aluminium demand, respectively
#global
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Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Signet has reported a further 9.1% YoY decline in same-store sales in 4Q22 (November-January). In 3Q22, the decrease was 7.6% YoY. Same-store sales in North America contracted 9.3% YoY (-7.6% YoY in the previous quarter), while sales in the international segment fell 6.8% YoY (-6.7% YoY). According to Signet, inflationary pressures and union strikes in the UK outweighed the effect of adding online retailer Blue Nile to the retailer’s portfolio. Interestingly, higher-priced products performed better than those from cheaper categories. Overall, the results are in line with continuously soft US jewelry data (since October 2022) and the adverse macroeconomic conditions globally. We therefore maintain our cautious view on the diamond sector
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
💍Signet has reported a further 9.1% YoY decline in same-store sales in 4Q22 (November-January). In 3Q22, the decrease was 7.6% YoY. Same-store sales in North America contracted 9.3% YoY (-7.6% YoY in the previous quarter), while sales in the international segment fell 6.8% YoY (-6.7% YoY). According to Signet, inflationary pressures and union strikes in the UK outweighed the effect of adding online retailer Blue Nile to the retailer’s portfolio. Interestingly, higher-priced products performed better than those from cheaper categories. Overall, the results are in line with continuously soft US jewelry data (since October 2022) and the adverse macroeconomic conditions globally. We therefore maintain our cautious view on the diamond sector
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (Part 1)
🇵🇪Nexa Resources has suspended production in Peru due to Cyclone Yaku. The major zinc producer faced heavy rainfall and overflowing rivers at its Cerro Lindo mine (~0.7% of global zinc supply) caused by the cyclone. Nexa said that its underground mine received more water than could be pumped to the surface, but that the company expected to resume its operations within 10-12 days. The potential impact on the 2023 guidance and results are under review, according to the company. Meanwhile, due to the mine's small size and short shutdown, no market impact is likely, in our view
#zinc
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🇵🇪Nexa Resources has suspended production in Peru due to Cyclone Yaku. The major zinc producer faced heavy rainfall and overflowing rivers at its Cerro Lindo mine (~0.7% of global zinc supply) caused by the cyclone. Nexa said that its underground mine received more water than could be pumped to the surface, but that the company expected to resume its operations within 10-12 days. The potential impact on the 2023 guidance and results are under review, according to the company. Meanwhile, due to the mine's small size and short shutdown, no market impact is likely, in our view
#zinc
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (Part 2)
⛏Construction work has resumed at the Simandou mine, the world’s biggest untapped reserve of iron ore. The project, which includes a railway and a port, had been suspended for almost a year. Simandou is jointly owned by Rio Tinto Group and Winning Consortium. The mine accounts for ~1.2% of the world's crude ore reserves, grading 40% iron metal, with potential production of 120mntpa (~4.6% of global iron ore output). The project was originally scheduled for launch in March 2025; however, the suspension of construction might lead to the launch date being pushed back
#iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Iron_ore
⛏Construction work has resumed at the Simandou mine, the world’s biggest untapped reserve of iron ore. The project, which includes a railway and a port, had been suspended for almost a year. Simandou is jointly owned by Rio Tinto Group and Winning Consortium. The mine accounts for ~1.2% of the world's crude ore reserves, grading 40% iron metal, with potential production of 120mntpa (~4.6% of global iron ore output). The project was originally scheduled for launch in March 2025; however, the suspension of construction might lead to the launch date being pushed back
#iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Iron_ore
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Morning Bites (Part 1)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations rose 13% YoY in February, slightly accelerating from the 12% YoY growth in January. The results were in line with our estimates. Nevertheless, the figure was still 21% below the pre-COVID 2019 level (-25% in January), with most of the annual gain due to the low base effect. Therefore, we reiterate our view that European car sales are likely to remain stressed, at least in the short term, amid the unfavourable macroeconomic conditions globally. Overall, this might keep weighing on the consumption of PGMs: the region accounted for ~20% and 32% of the world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2022E
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations rose 13% YoY in February, slightly accelerating from the 12% YoY growth in January. The results were in line with our estimates. Nevertheless, the figure was still 21% below the pre-COVID 2019 level (-25% in January), with most of the annual gain due to the low base effect. Therefore, we reiterate our view that European car sales are likely to remain stressed, at least in the short term, amid the unfavourable macroeconomic conditions globally. Overall, this might keep weighing on the consumption of PGMs: the region accounted for ~20% and 32% of the world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2022E
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (Part 2)
🚘US light vehicle sales were up 5% YoY in February from a low base, slightly ahead of the 4% YoY growth in January but still 12% less than the 2019 level. Seasonally adjusted sales volumes increased 6% YoY in February (-11% vs. 2019). Generally, market participants in the US continue to be concerned about inflated car prices and high loan payments, along with growing interest rates. This might keep car sales on the domestic market under pressure in 2023 and, therefore, mean the demand for PGMs from the automotive sector remains subdued
📈Gold-backed ETFs increased their holdings 22t in mid-March, according to Bloomberg, after the recent series of outflows. In addition, this was the highest weekly build-up since March 2022. Overall, the news might imply a positive read-across for the sentiment on gold: ETFs sales have been the main factor pressuring the metal’s performance, despite the strong physical gold demand in 4Q22
#ETF #gold #cars
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🚘US light vehicle sales were up 5% YoY in February from a low base, slightly ahead of the 4% YoY growth in January but still 12% less than the 2019 level. Seasonally adjusted sales volumes increased 6% YoY in February (-11% vs. 2019). Generally, market participants in the US continue to be concerned about inflated car prices and high loan payments, along with growing interest rates. This might keep car sales on the domestic market under pressure in 2023 and, therefore, mean the demand for PGMs from the automotive sector remains subdued
📈Gold-backed ETFs increased their holdings 22t in mid-March, according to Bloomberg, after the recent series of outflows. In addition, this was the highest weekly build-up since March 2022. Overall, the news might imply a positive read-across for the sentiment on gold: ETFs sales have been the main factor pressuring the metal’s performance, despite the strong physical gold demand in 4Q22
#ETF #gold #cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (Part 1)
📈Global primary aluminium production rose 3% YoY in February, in line with the 3% YoY growth in January, the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reports. Meanwhile, Chinese aluminium output rose 4% YoY last month (+12% vs. the 2019 level), while ex-China production remained flat YoY (+1% vs. 2019)
⛏️MMG is to recommence operations at its Dugald River zinc mine. They were suspended from 15 February due to a fatal incident, but having now received government approval, the company is restarting its operations. Dugald River accounts for ~1.3% of global zinc supply. This resumption in production is in line with market expectations, so we do not expect any effect on zinc prices
#aluminium #zinc
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📈Global primary aluminium production rose 3% YoY in February, in line with the 3% YoY growth in January, the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reports. Meanwhile, Chinese aluminium output rose 4% YoY last month (+12% vs. the 2019 level), while ex-China production remained flat YoY (+1% vs. 2019)
⛏️MMG is to recommence operations at its Dugald River zinc mine. They were suspended from 15 February due to a fatal incident, but having now received government approval, the company is restarting its operations. Dugald River accounts for ~1.3% of global zinc supply. This resumption in production is in line with market expectations, so we do not expect any effect on zinc prices
#aluminium #zinc
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Morning Bites (Part 2)
🏗China’s excavator sales fell 12% YoY in February (domestic + export), after the 33% YoY drop in January. We note that the decline was slightly sharper than the previous SteelOrbis estimate. Domestic excavator sales declined 33% YoY, after the 59% YoY fall in January. In spite of the protracted deterioration in sales, China's recent PMI data is strong, which could be a sign of a potential reversal in the trend
#steel
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🏗China’s excavator sales fell 12% YoY in February (domestic + export), after the 33% YoY drop in January. We note that the decline was slightly sharper than the previous SteelOrbis estimate. Domestic excavator sales declined 33% YoY, after the 59% YoY fall in January. In spite of the protracted deterioration in sales, China's recent PMI data is strong, which could be a sign of a potential reversal in the trend
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites
⛏️The development of Udokan, the world’s third largest copper mine, is 95% complete. The project had been delayed from the initial plan of 2022 and is now to be launched in 3Q23, in line with the latest plan. The Udokan field is expected to bring 0.6% of global copper output in the first production stage, with a potential expansion to 1.6%. The mine accounts for ~3.1% of global copper reserves, grading 1.05%. We do not expect any effect on the market when the mine opens, at least at the first stage, since the project is well-known and is likely already priced in
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
⛏️The development of Udokan, the world’s third largest copper mine, is 95% complete. The project had been delayed from the initial plan of 2022 and is now to be launched in 3Q23, in line with the latest plan. The Udokan field is expected to bring 0.6% of global copper output in the first production stage, with a potential expansion to 1.6%. The mine accounts for ~3.1% of global copper reserves, grading 1.05%. We do not expect any effect on the market when the mine opens, at least at the first stage, since the project is well-known and is likely already priced in
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗Global crude steel output was down 1% YoY to 142mnt in February, following the 3% YoY decline in January, according to the World Steel Association. The dynamics were mixed in China and ex-China regions. The 6% YoY growth in China's output (56% of global steel supply in February) was likely due to the low base effect from production curbs a year ago, as well as to the economic recovery withthe country exiting its zero-COVID policy. Ex-China steel production, however, shrank 8% YoY. In particular, steel output in the EU declined further, down 13% YoY, amid the local energy crisis. US steel production decreased 5% YoY (vs. the 10% YoY decline in January). Russia’s steel output also shrunk: it was down 9% YoY in February, the same dynamics as in January
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🔗Global crude steel output was down 1% YoY to 142mnt in February, following the 3% YoY decline in January, according to the World Steel Association. The dynamics were mixed in China and ex-China regions. The 6% YoY growth in China's output (56% of global steel supply in February) was likely due to the low base effect from production curbs a year ago, as well as to the economic recovery withthe country exiting its zero-COVID policy. Ex-China steel production, however, shrank 8% YoY. In particular, steel output in the EU declined further, down 13% YoY, amid the local energy crisis. US steel production decreased 5% YoY (vs. the 10% YoY decline in January). Russia’s steel output also shrunk: it was down 9% YoY in February, the same dynamics as in January
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗China’s aluminium products output rose 1% YoY to 4.36mnt in Jan-Feb, vs. a 4% YoY decline in December. As these production levels are above historical highs, it implies robust demand for aluminium commodity. A persistence of this dynamic would bolster aluminium prices in 2023, we believe
📈China's output of copper products jumped 10% YoY in Jan-Feb to 1.56mnt, accelerating from the 4% YoY growth in December. The figure was supported by an 11% and 14% YoY increase in the output of domestic refrigerators and air conditioners, respectively
📌We maintain our positive view on copper and aluminium, as strong China PMIs are likely to raise the consumption of industrial metals, given China represents some 55% and 58% of world copper and aluminium demand, respectively. At the same time, global Cu and Al inventories remain low, which might amplify the positive effect on prices
#aluminium #copper
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🔗China’s aluminium products output rose 1% YoY to 4.36mnt in Jan-Feb, vs. a 4% YoY decline in December. As these production levels are above historical highs, it implies robust demand for aluminium commodity. A persistence of this dynamic would bolster aluminium prices in 2023, we believe
📈China's output of copper products jumped 10% YoY in Jan-Feb to 1.56mnt, accelerating from the 4% YoY growth in December. The figure was supported by an 11% and 14% YoY increase in the output of domestic refrigerators and air conditioners, respectively
📌We maintain our positive view on copper and aluminium, as strong China PMIs are likely to raise the consumption of industrial metals, given China represents some 55% and 58% of world copper and aluminium demand, respectively. At the same time, global Cu and Al inventories remain low, which might amplify the positive effect on prices
#aluminium #copper
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Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production increased 4.7% to 2.25mnt in mid-March from early-March (YoY growth of 9.9%). Local steel inventories increased 7.1% over the same period. Production continued to increase YoY, which might indicate an economic recovery as China reopens after the COVID-19 restrictions were lifted
⛏Global copper mine production increased 4.5% YoY in January, according to preliminary ICSG data, while world refined copper production increased 5.5% YoY. According to the report, D.R.Congo's output surged 15% YoY as a consequence of rises at the new Kamoa mine and expanded capacity at other mines. This surge, along with China's strong output, contributed the most to global output growth, the ICSG said
#steel #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production increased 4.7% to 2.25mnt in mid-March from early-March (YoY growth of 9.9%). Local steel inventories increased 7.1% over the same period. Production continued to increase YoY, which might indicate an economic recovery as China reopens after the COVID-19 restrictions were lifted
⛏Global copper mine production increased 4.5% YoY in January, according to preliminary ICSG data, while world refined copper production increased 5.5% YoY. According to the report, D.R.Congo's output surged 15% YoY as a consequence of rises at the new Kamoa mine and expanded capacity at other mines. This surge, along with China's strong output, contributed the most to global output growth, the ICSG said
#steel #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports