Morning Bites (part 3)
🇵🇪 The Peruvian government sees commodity shipments normalising within days as nationwide protests ease, according to the country’s minister for energy and mines minister. In addition, the minister hopes for a lasting military presence along roads to ensure that mine commitments are met. Overall, the news might be slightly negative for sentiment on the copper market (Peru accounts for ~11% of world mined Cu supply); however, some local communities have recently decided to resume transportation blockades.
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇵🇪 The Peruvian government sees commodity shipments normalising within days as nationwide protests ease, according to the country’s minister for energy and mines minister. In addition, the minister hopes for a lasting military presence along roads to ensure that mine commitments are met. Overall, the news might be slightly negative for sentiment on the copper market (Peru accounts for ~11% of world mined Cu supply); however, some local communities have recently decided to resume transportation blockades.
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites
🇵🇪Peru’s copper production declined 2% YoY in January, reversing from the sharp 20% YoY growth in December. Overall, the dynamics were driven by local political unrest and transportation blockades, which affected mining at key domestic copper pits, such as Las Bambas (1.4% of world mined Cu supply) and Antapaccay (0.8%). Although the news might be slightly supportive for the sentiment on copper, local authorities expect the metal's shipments to normalise soon
🛒Global aluminium producers are offering 45-70% higher QoQ premiums for 2Q23, Reuters reports, citing sources involved in the pricing talks. However, the figure is still 15-27% lower YoY. Meanwhile, suppliers offered a USD 125-145/t surcharge for Japanese buyers (Asia's largest Al importer), expecting higher demand from automakers. The proposal, if agreed by buyers, would mark the first increase in 6 quarters, underpinning a recovery in the local consumption of the metal
#copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🇵🇪Peru’s copper production declined 2% YoY in January, reversing from the sharp 20% YoY growth in December. Overall, the dynamics were driven by local political unrest and transportation blockades, which affected mining at key domestic copper pits, such as Las Bambas (1.4% of world mined Cu supply) and Antapaccay (0.8%). Although the news might be slightly supportive for the sentiment on copper, local authorities expect the metal's shipments to normalise soon
🛒Global aluminium producers are offering 45-70% higher QoQ premiums for 2Q23, Reuters reports, citing sources involved in the pricing talks. However, the figure is still 15-27% lower YoY. Meanwhile, suppliers offered a USD 125-145/t surcharge for Japanese buyers (Asia's largest Al importer), expecting higher demand from automakers. The proposal, if agreed by buyers, would mark the first increase in 6 quarters, underpinning a recovery in the local consumption of the metal
#copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season is coming to an end, no major miners (under our coverage) are due to report their earning this week. We await for the official production data from China and South Africa
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
As the reporting season is coming to an end, no major miners (under our coverage) are due to report their earning this week. We await for the official production data from China and South Africa
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Morning Bites (Part 1)
⛏China is aiming to tackle the growth in iron ore prices, which is more than 50% since October. The Chinese authorities are urging companies that store massive volumes to sell some of their materials. They are also considering raising port-storage fees for large cargoes in order to stimulate trade. China is the largest iron ore consumer (~70% of the world's imports), and such regulations might exert pressure on prices, although there has been no effect so far.
🇵🇦First Quantum has resumed operations at the port of Punta Rincon after the suspension since 23 February, Reuters reports. First Quantum halted ore processing operations in February after exceeding the storage limit of copper concentrate (~10kt). Cobre Panama accounts for 1.5% of global copper output, while 60% of Punta Rincon's copper concentrate export is destined for China.
#iron_ore #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
⛏China is aiming to tackle the growth in iron ore prices, which is more than 50% since October. The Chinese authorities are urging companies that store massive volumes to sell some of their materials. They are also considering raising port-storage fees for large cargoes in order to stimulate trade. China is the largest iron ore consumer (~70% of the world's imports), and such regulations might exert pressure on prices, although there has been no effect so far.
🇵🇦First Quantum has resumed operations at the port of Punta Rincon after the suspension since 23 February, Reuters reports. First Quantum halted ore processing operations in February after exceeding the storage limit of copper concentrate (~10kt). Cobre Panama accounts for 1.5% of global copper output, while 60% of Punta Rincon's copper concentrate export is destined for China.
#iron_ore #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
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Morning Bites (Part 2)
💎India’s rough diamond net imports fell 18% YoY in February, less than the -33% YoY in January. Meanwhile India’s polished diamond net exports grew 23% YoY (vs. -31% YoY in January) after the continuous decline since September 2022. Therefore, we reiterate our outlook regarding the stressed macroeconomic conditions and the notable decrease in De Beers sales, that are keeping the diamond sector under pressure
Meanwhile, India’s synthetic rough diamond net imports decreased 60% YoY in February (vs. -8% YoY in January). However, the share of lab-grown net rough imports in natural diamond imports fell to 4% in February (vs. 7% a year ago)
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports fell 18% YoY in February, less than the -33% YoY in January. Meanwhile India’s polished diamond net exports grew 23% YoY (vs. -31% YoY in January) after the continuous decline since September 2022. Therefore, we reiterate our outlook regarding the stressed macroeconomic conditions and the notable decrease in De Beers sales, that are keeping the diamond sector under pressure
Meanwhile, India’s synthetic rough diamond net imports decreased 60% YoY in February (vs. -8% YoY in January). However, the share of lab-grown net rough imports in natural diamond imports fell to 4% in February (vs. 7% a year ago)
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (Part 1)
🇵🇪Peru’s Las Bambas copper mine is returning to full capacity, following the removal of roadblocks that had disrupted transporation, MMG reports. The miner is also negotiating with local communities to ensure stable supply and export logistics at the pit (1.4% of global mined Cu supply). Overall, the news is in line with the recent claims by local authorities, that most of the effect on sentiment is likely already priced in by the market
⛏The work at Guinea's Simandou iron ore project is set to resume in March, as the government and shareholders have agreed on the joint venture's terms, according to Reuters. This is likely to support the previous plans to restart development this month. To recap, the domestic authorities see the first production in March 2025. We reiterate our view that the timing is rather ambitious, amid the mine's huge size (~4% of world production in 2022E) and given the local political uncertainties
#copper #iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🇵🇪Peru’s Las Bambas copper mine is returning to full capacity, following the removal of roadblocks that had disrupted transporation, MMG reports. The miner is also negotiating with local communities to ensure stable supply and export logistics at the pit (1.4% of global mined Cu supply). Overall, the news is in line with the recent claims by local authorities, that most of the effect on sentiment is likely already priced in by the market
⛏The work at Guinea's Simandou iron ore project is set to resume in March, as the government and shareholders have agreed on the joint venture's terms, according to Reuters. This is likely to support the previous plans to restart development this month. To recap, the domestic authorities see the first production in March 2025. We reiterate our view that the timing is rather ambitious, amid the mine's huge size (~4% of world production in 2022E) and given the local political uncertainties
#copper #iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (Part 2)
🏭EU steelmakers are restarting idled capacities, amid higher steel prices, S&P Global reports. On our numbers, the suspended operations accounted for ~10% of EU steel capacity in 2022E. At the same time, according to the source, local producers have depleted the massive inventories accumulated during 1H22, while higher electricity costs and lower output were driving prices up. As such, last week, EU HRC quotations jumped 26% from their early-December levels, although that was still 40% lower YoY. Overall, the EU production recovery is unlikely to have a substantial effect on global prices (the idled capacities represent <1% of the global steel supply), while the process might be rather stretched over time. To recap, local steel output was still down 15% YoY in January (after the -18% YoY in December)
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🏭EU steelmakers are restarting idled capacities, amid higher steel prices, S&P Global reports. On our numbers, the suspended operations accounted for ~10% of EU steel capacity in 2022E. At the same time, according to the source, local producers have depleted the massive inventories accumulated during 1H22, while higher electricity costs and lower output were driving prices up. As such, last week, EU HRC quotations jumped 26% from their early-December levels, although that was still 40% lower YoY. Overall, the EU production recovery is unlikely to have a substantial effect on global prices (the idled capacities represent <1% of the global steel supply), while the process might be rather stretched over time. To recap, local steel output was still down 15% YoY in January (after the -18% YoY in December)
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for January-February (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (Part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output grew 7% YoY in January-February, after the 10% YoY drop in December. According to Reuters, these dynamics were due to domestic producers anticipating a pick-up in demand in March. Meanwhile, apparent steel consumption was up 4% YoY, vs. the 11% YoY decrease in December. To recap, the strong February PMIs in China indicate a potential recovery in domestic steel demand
🏢China's property sales dropped 4% YoY in January-February (vs. -32% YoY in December). This was 13% lower than the 2021 level. Floor space starts were down 9% YoY (-20% vs. 2021) in the last two months, after the 44% YoY decline in December. Personal mortgage loans came in 15% lower YoY (vs. -29% in December). However, property completions grew 8% YoY in January-February (vs. -7% YoY in December). Despite the still weak real estate segment, China’s strong liquidity injections data might bolster local construction activity in 2023
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output grew 7% YoY in January-February, after the 10% YoY drop in December. According to Reuters, these dynamics were due to domestic producers anticipating a pick-up in demand in March. Meanwhile, apparent steel consumption was up 4% YoY, vs. the 11% YoY decrease in December. To recap, the strong February PMIs in China indicate a potential recovery in domestic steel demand
🏢China's property sales dropped 4% YoY in January-February (vs. -32% YoY in December). This was 13% lower than the 2021 level. Floor space starts were down 9% YoY (-20% vs. 2021) in the last two months, after the 44% YoY decline in December. Personal mortgage loans came in 15% lower YoY (vs. -29% in December). However, property completions grew 8% YoY in January-February (vs. -7% YoY in December). Despite the still weak real estate segment, China’s strong liquidity injections data might bolster local construction activity in 2023
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production declined 3.1% to 2.15mnt in early-March from late-Feruary. This represented a 9.8% YoY growth. At the same time, local steel inventories increased 1.6% over the period. Recently, China's authorities announced possible measures to curb inflation in key commodities, which could lead to lower inventories; however, there has been no significant effect yet
🪨China will lift all restrictions on Australian coal imports. To recap, historically, Australia accounted ~30% of Chinese imports. As abovementioned, one of China's goals at present is to stabilise increasing steel prices, which we believe could be the reason behind lifting the restrictions imposed in late 2020
#steel #coal
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production declined 3.1% to 2.15mnt in early-March from late-Feruary. This represented a 9.8% YoY growth. At the same time, local steel inventories increased 1.6% over the period. Recently, China's authorities announced possible measures to curb inflation in key commodities, which could lead to lower inventories; however, there has been no significant effect yet
🪨China will lift all restrictions on Australian coal imports. To recap, historically, Australia accounted ~30% of Chinese imports. As abovementioned, one of China's goals at present is to stabilise increasing steel prices, which we believe could be the reason behind lifting the restrictions imposed in late 2020
#steel #coal
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 3)
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales dropped 20% YoY in February (-21% vs. February 2019), after the 41% YoY fall in January. Along with falling car sales, we see declining demand for PGMs that might indicate an unfavourable economic situation for the sector, as well as some gradual switch to EVs locally. To recap, China’s auto sector accounts for some 26% and 17% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China grew 56% YoY in January, after the 6% YoY fall in December. Since China has accounted for half of global EV sales in recent months, the dynamics in this sector support the demand for battery metals such as nickel, lithium and cobalt
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales dropped 20% YoY in February (-21% vs. February 2019), after the 41% YoY fall in January. Along with falling car sales, we see declining demand for PGMs that might indicate an unfavourable economic situation for the sector, as well as some gradual switch to EVs locally. To recap, China’s auto sector accounts for some 26% and 17% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China grew 56% YoY in January, after the 6% YoY fall in December. Since China has accounted for half of global EV sales in recent months, the dynamics in this sector support the demand for battery metals such as nickel, lithium and cobalt
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 4)
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output declined 15% YoY in January, after the 5% YoY drop in December. Meanwhile, the country’s gold production increased 4% YoY, a turnaround from the 3% YoY decline in December. To recap, domestic production is suffering from inflationary pressure, electricity shortages and logistical issues. Despite SA supply tightening, we do not see this is representing a trigger to push prices, as demand from automakers remains sluggish
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output declined 15% YoY in January, after the 5% YoY drop in December. Meanwhile, the country’s gold production increased 4% YoY, a turnaround from the 3% YoY decline in December. To recap, domestic production is suffering from inflationary pressure, electricity shortages and logistical issues. Despite SA supply tightening, we do not see this is representing a trigger to push prices, as demand from automakers remains sluggish
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎Petra Diamonds' LFL rough prices grew 12.5% at the March auction, vs. December. However, the miner's LFL rough prices were still down 11.9% YoY, mostly due to the high base effect. According to Petra CEO Richard Duffy, the upbeat dynamics were supported by China reopening and stronger demand from major jewellers (generally, for smaller categories). However, we keep our cautious view on the diamond sector, following the adverse macroeconomic conditions globally, soft US jewellery data and weak De Beers’ sales in the first 2 cycles of 2023
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
💎Petra Diamonds' LFL rough prices grew 12.5% at the March auction, vs. December. However, the miner's LFL rough prices were still down 11.9% YoY, mostly due to the high base effect. According to Petra CEO Richard Duffy, the upbeat dynamics were supported by China reopening and stronger demand from major jewellers (generally, for smaller categories). However, we keep our cautious view on the diamond sector, following the adverse macroeconomic conditions globally, soft US jewellery data and weak De Beers’ sales in the first 2 cycles of 2023
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
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Morning Bites (part 2)
☢️EnCore Energy has confirmed that operations at its Alta Mesa facility are to resume in 2024 after having been on standby since 2013 due to unfavourable uranium market conditions. The factory capacity is to be 577kt per year (~0.9% of the world's uranium supply in 2022), which is in line with earlier plans and thus already priced in, we believe
🇵🇦First Quantum has resumed operations at its Panama copper mine (~1.5% of global copper supply) following the removal of restrictions from the port of Punta. Last week the government and the company agreed on a new text for their operating agreement. Hence, in our view, most of the effect on sentiment from the production restart is likely to be already priced in
#uranium #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
☢️EnCore Energy has confirmed that operations at its Alta Mesa facility are to resume in 2024 after having been on standby since 2013 due to unfavourable uranium market conditions. The factory capacity is to be 577kt per year (~0.9% of the world's uranium supply in 2022), which is in line with earlier plans and thus already priced in, we believe
🇵🇦First Quantum has resumed operations at its Panama copper mine (~1.5% of global copper supply) following the removal of restrictions from the port of Punta. Last week the government and the company agreed on a new text for their operating agreement. Hence, in our view, most of the effect on sentiment from the production restart is likely to be already priced in
#uranium #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏦China’s aggregate financing surged 2.6x YoY in February to CNY 3.16trn, exceeding the consensus estimate by 44%. Specifically, traditional bank loans gained 47% YoY, beating the consensus by 21%. In January, historically the most important month, China’s liquidity injections data was also strong, staying near record levels. The news underpins our expectations of a recovery in domestic demand for industrial metals in 2023 (steel and base metals), especially amid China's upbeat February PMIs. Of note, the country represents 52% of global steel consumption, as well as 55% and 58% of world copper and aluminium demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🏦China’s aggregate financing surged 2.6x YoY in February to CNY 3.16trn, exceeding the consensus estimate by 44%. Specifically, traditional bank loans gained 47% YoY, beating the consensus by 21%. In January, historically the most important month, China’s liquidity injections data was also strong, staying near record levels. The news underpins our expectations of a recovery in domestic demand for industrial metals in 2023 (steel and base metals), especially amid China's upbeat February PMIs. Of note, the country represents 52% of global steel consumption, as well as 55% and 58% of world copper and aluminium demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Signet has reported a further 9.1% YoY decline in same-store sales in 4Q22 (November-January). In 3Q22, the decrease was 7.6% YoY. Same-store sales in North America contracted 9.3% YoY (-7.6% YoY in the previous quarter), while sales in the international segment fell 6.8% YoY (-6.7% YoY). According to Signet, inflationary pressures and union strikes in the UK outweighed the effect of adding online retailer Blue Nile to the retailer’s portfolio. Interestingly, higher-priced products performed better than those from cheaper categories. Overall, the results are in line with continuously soft US jewelry data (since October 2022) and the adverse macroeconomic conditions globally. We therefore maintain our cautious view on the diamond sector
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
💍Signet has reported a further 9.1% YoY decline in same-store sales in 4Q22 (November-January). In 3Q22, the decrease was 7.6% YoY. Same-store sales in North America contracted 9.3% YoY (-7.6% YoY in the previous quarter), while sales in the international segment fell 6.8% YoY (-6.7% YoY). According to Signet, inflationary pressures and union strikes in the UK outweighed the effect of adding online retailer Blue Nile to the retailer’s portfolio. Interestingly, higher-priced products performed better than those from cheaper categories. Overall, the results are in line with continuously soft US jewelry data (since October 2022) and the adverse macroeconomic conditions globally. We therefore maintain our cautious view on the diamond sector
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (Part 1)
🇵🇪Nexa Resources has suspended production in Peru due to Cyclone Yaku. The major zinc producer faced heavy rainfall and overflowing rivers at its Cerro Lindo mine (~0.7% of global zinc supply) caused by the cyclone. Nexa said that its underground mine received more water than could be pumped to the surface, but that the company expected to resume its operations within 10-12 days. The potential impact on the 2023 guidance and results are under review, according to the company. Meanwhile, due to the mine's small size and short shutdown, no market impact is likely, in our view
#zinc
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🇵🇪Nexa Resources has suspended production in Peru due to Cyclone Yaku. The major zinc producer faced heavy rainfall and overflowing rivers at its Cerro Lindo mine (~0.7% of global zinc supply) caused by the cyclone. Nexa said that its underground mine received more water than could be pumped to the surface, but that the company expected to resume its operations within 10-12 days. The potential impact on the 2023 guidance and results are under review, according to the company. Meanwhile, due to the mine's small size and short shutdown, no market impact is likely, in our view
#zinc
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (Part 2)
⛏Construction work has resumed at the Simandou mine, the world’s biggest untapped reserve of iron ore. The project, which includes a railway and a port, had been suspended for almost a year. Simandou is jointly owned by Rio Tinto Group and Winning Consortium. The mine accounts for ~1.2% of the world's crude ore reserves, grading 40% iron metal, with potential production of 120mntpa (~4.6% of global iron ore output). The project was originally scheduled for launch in March 2025; however, the suspension of construction might lead to the launch date being pushed back
#iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Iron_ore
⛏Construction work has resumed at the Simandou mine, the world’s biggest untapped reserve of iron ore. The project, which includes a railway and a port, had been suspended for almost a year. Simandou is jointly owned by Rio Tinto Group and Winning Consortium. The mine accounts for ~1.2% of the world's crude ore reserves, grading 40% iron metal, with potential production of 120mntpa (~4.6% of global iron ore output). The project was originally scheduled for launch in March 2025; however, the suspension of construction might lead to the launch date being pushed back
#iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Iron_ore
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Morning Bites (Part 1)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations rose 13% YoY in February, slightly accelerating from the 12% YoY growth in January. The results were in line with our estimates. Nevertheless, the figure was still 21% below the pre-COVID 2019 level (-25% in January), with most of the annual gain due to the low base effect. Therefore, we reiterate our view that European car sales are likely to remain stressed, at least in the short term, amid the unfavourable macroeconomic conditions globally. Overall, this might keep weighing on the consumption of PGMs: the region accounted for ~20% and 32% of the world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2022E
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations rose 13% YoY in February, slightly accelerating from the 12% YoY growth in January. The results were in line with our estimates. Nevertheless, the figure was still 21% below the pre-COVID 2019 level (-25% in January), with most of the annual gain due to the low base effect. Therefore, we reiterate our view that European car sales are likely to remain stressed, at least in the short term, amid the unfavourable macroeconomic conditions globally. Overall, this might keep weighing on the consumption of PGMs: the region accounted for ~20% and 32% of the world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2022E
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM