Week ahead data releases in M&M
Several companies are due to report their 4Q22/2H22 earnings this week. Our forecasts are, on average, less upbeat than the consensus estimates
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Several companies are due to report their 4Q22/2H22 earnings this week. Our forecasts are, on average, less upbeat than the consensus estimates
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Morning Bites
🇵🇪 Peruvian communities are set to resume transportation blockades this week, after a truce that had allowed local companies to restart mining, Reuters reports. Furthermore, starting from Monday, the protesters are going to demand that operations at the Antapaccay, Las Bambas and Constancia mines (2.2% of world mined copper supply in 2022E) be stopped. Overall, the blockades are likely to keep weighing on domestic copper supply. However, we do not expect a substantial impact on sentiment - most of the effect from Peru’s political unrest is already priced in by the market, we believe
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇵🇪 Peruvian communities are set to resume transportation blockades this week, after a truce that had allowed local companies to restart mining, Reuters reports. Furthermore, starting from Monday, the protesters are going to demand that operations at the Antapaccay, Las Bambas and Constancia mines (2.2% of world mined copper supply in 2022E) be stopped. Overall, the blockades are likely to keep weighing on domestic copper supply. However, we do not expect a substantial impact on sentiment - most of the effect from Peru’s political unrest is already priced in by the market, we believe
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for January-February (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s finished steel net exports surged 83% YoY in January-February, accelerating from the 17% YoY growth in December. Meanwhile, average daily steel production and inventories grew further, on the YoY basis, in the previous two months. Hence, some steel volumes might have been shipped abroad, given that domestic consumption had not yet fully recovered. We remind readers that China has recently published strong financing data for January (historically, the most important month), which might support domestic construction activity and, hence, the demand for steel in 2023
🪨China’s coal imports jumped 71% YoY in January-February (vs. flat YoY in December). According to Reuters, the strong dynamics were mostly due to the low base effect, as utilities replenished inventories, on expectations of upbeat demand after the country abandoned its zero-COVID policy in late 2022
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🔗China’s finished steel net exports surged 83% YoY in January-February, accelerating from the 17% YoY growth in December. Meanwhile, average daily steel production and inventories grew further, on the YoY basis, in the previous two months. Hence, some steel volumes might have been shipped abroad, given that domestic consumption had not yet fully recovered. We remind readers that China has recently published strong financing data for January (historically, the most important month), which might support domestic construction activity and, hence, the demand for steel in 2023
🪨China’s coal imports jumped 71% YoY in January-February (vs. flat YoY in December). According to Reuters, the strong dynamics were mostly due to the low base effect, as utilities replenished inventories, on expectations of upbeat demand after the country abandoned its zero-COVID policy in late 2022
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production grew 6.1% to 2.22mnt in the late-February from the second ten days of the month. This represented 6.2% YoY growth (vs. +10.2% YoY in the previous ten days). At the same time, local steel inventories contracted 10.8% over the period (still 8.2% above the 2022 level, as of 28 February). Overall, the decline in stocks, as well as the recently reported strong PMIs in China, might indicate some revival of domestic steel demand, in our view
🔋South America is aiming to create a lithium OPEC, according to the Argentinean delegation at the annual PDAC Convention. Hence, Argentina, Chile, Bolivia and Brazil (~36% of world Li supply in 2022) are considering the creation of a cartel to expand their processing capacity. Overall, we do not expect this news to have much impact on the market: local governments proposed this idea in late-2022, while the timeline is still not specified
#steel #lithium
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production grew 6.1% to 2.22mnt in the late-February from the second ten days of the month. This represented 6.2% YoY growth (vs. +10.2% YoY in the previous ten days). At the same time, local steel inventories contracted 10.8% over the period (still 8.2% above the 2022 level, as of 28 February). Overall, the decline in stocks, as well as the recently reported strong PMIs in China, might indicate some revival of domestic steel demand, in our view
🔋South America is aiming to create a lithium OPEC, according to the Argentinean delegation at the annual PDAC Convention. Hence, Argentina, Chile, Bolivia and Brazil (~36% of world Li supply in 2022) are considering the creation of a cartel to expand their processing capacity. Overall, we do not expect this news to have much impact on the market: local governments proposed this idea in late-2022, while the timeline is still not specified
#steel #lithium
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 3)
💍US jewellery sales were down 2% YoY in January, after the revised 3% YoY fall in December. Overall, the figure came in materially below the preliminary expectations (+6% YoY). According to market participants, the cautious market mood persists, amid slow trading and low production volumes. Hence, we reiterate our view that the ongoing decline in US jewellery sales (since October 2022) is likely to keep weighing on the global diamond sector (at least in the near future). To recap, the US represents ~50% of world diamond jewellery sales
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
💍US jewellery sales were down 2% YoY in January, after the revised 3% YoY fall in December. Overall, the figure came in materially below the preliminary expectations (+6% YoY). According to market participants, the cautious market mood persists, amid slow trading and low production volumes. Hence, we reiterate our view that the ongoing decline in US jewellery sales (since October 2022) is likely to keep weighing on the global diamond sector (at least in the near future). To recap, the US represents ~50% of world diamond jewellery sales
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 4)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany grew 12% YoY in February, according to the preliminary data. Nonetheless, the figure was still 26% below the (2019) pre-COVID level. Specifically, in Germany and Spain, car sales were down 27% and 30%, respectively, vs. 2019, while sales in France were hit the most, by ~40%. Moreover, UK and Italy sales were 9% and 7% lower relative to 2019, respectively. Given that the above countries represent ~70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe, local car sales have likely continued to grow YoY, while remaining below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany grew 12% YoY in February, according to the preliminary data. Nonetheless, the figure was still 26% below the (2019) pre-COVID level. Specifically, in Germany and Spain, car sales were down 27% and 30%, respectively, vs. 2019, while sales in France were hit the most, by ~40%. Moreover, UK and Italy sales were 9% and 7% lower relative to 2019, respectively. Given that the above countries represent ~70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe, local car sales have likely continued to grow YoY, while remaining below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 1)
📉Gold-backed ETFs reduced their holdings by a further 34t in February (after the 26t decline in January). According to the WGC, gold ETFs last month saw outflows in EU (-25t) and in N. America (-10t). We reiterate our view that ETFs remain the main factor pressuring gold performance, despite the substantial growth in physical gold demand during 4Q22
🇨🇳In February, the PBoC increased its gold reserves by 25t, to a total of 2,050t, after the 30 and 15t growth in December and January, respectively. This represented ~7% of world monthly physical gold demand in 2022, on our numbers. Historically, when Сhina's central bank has started buying gold, the process has lasted as much as a year (as in 2015-16 and 2019). We therefore believe further purchases in 2023 are a distinct possibility, which might add some support to the precious metal's price. To recap, global institutions more than doubled their gold purchases YoY in 2022
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
📉Gold-backed ETFs reduced their holdings by a further 34t in February (after the 26t decline in January). According to the WGC, gold ETFs last month saw outflows in EU (-25t) and in N. America (-10t). We reiterate our view that ETFs remain the main factor pressuring gold performance, despite the substantial growth in physical gold demand during 4Q22
🇨🇳In February, the PBoC increased its gold reserves by 25t, to a total of 2,050t, after the 30 and 15t growth in December and January, respectively. This represented ~7% of world monthly physical gold demand in 2022, on our numbers. Historically, when Сhina's central bank has started buying gold, the process has lasted as much as a year (as in 2015-16 and 2019). We therefore believe further purchases in 2023 are a distinct possibility, which might add some support to the precious metal's price. To recap, global institutions more than doubled their gold purchases YoY in 2022
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎De Beers has reported sales of USD 495mn at its 2nd cycle in 2023, 16% below the historical average and 24% lower YoY (vs. -31% YoY at the 1st cycle in 2023). According to De Beers CEO Al Cook, rough diamond demand remained steady, despite the lower sales YoY. It was also mentioned that sightholders are planning to make more purchases later in 2023. However, we maintain our cautious view on the sector, given weak rough diamond sales (since early-2023) and consistently soft US jewellery data (since October 2022). Hence, we believe global diamond demand will remain weak (at least in the near future), following the adverse macroeconomic conditions
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎De Beers has reported sales of USD 495mn at its 2nd cycle in 2023, 16% below the historical average and 24% lower YoY (vs. -31% YoY at the 1st cycle in 2023). According to De Beers CEO Al Cook, rough diamond demand remained steady, despite the lower sales YoY. It was also mentioned that sightholders are planning to make more purchases later in 2023. However, we maintain our cautious view on the sector, given weak rough diamond sales (since early-2023) and consistently soft US jewellery data (since October 2022). Hence, we believe global diamond demand will remain weak (at least in the near future), following the adverse macroeconomic conditions
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 3)
🇵🇪 The Peruvian government sees commodity shipments normalising within days as nationwide protests ease, according to the country’s minister for energy and mines minister. In addition, the minister hopes for a lasting military presence along roads to ensure that mine commitments are met. Overall, the news might be slightly negative for sentiment on the copper market (Peru accounts for ~11% of world mined Cu supply); however, some local communities have recently decided to resume transportation blockades.
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇵🇪 The Peruvian government sees commodity shipments normalising within days as nationwide protests ease, according to the country’s minister for energy and mines minister. In addition, the minister hopes for a lasting military presence along roads to ensure that mine commitments are met. Overall, the news might be slightly negative for sentiment on the copper market (Peru accounts for ~11% of world mined Cu supply); however, some local communities have recently decided to resume transportation blockades.
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites
🇵🇪Peru’s copper production declined 2% YoY in January, reversing from the sharp 20% YoY growth in December. Overall, the dynamics were driven by local political unrest and transportation blockades, which affected mining at key domestic copper pits, such as Las Bambas (1.4% of world mined Cu supply) and Antapaccay (0.8%). Although the news might be slightly supportive for the sentiment on copper, local authorities expect the metal's shipments to normalise soon
🛒Global aluminium producers are offering 45-70% higher QoQ premiums for 2Q23, Reuters reports, citing sources involved in the pricing talks. However, the figure is still 15-27% lower YoY. Meanwhile, suppliers offered a USD 125-145/t surcharge for Japanese buyers (Asia's largest Al importer), expecting higher demand from automakers. The proposal, if agreed by buyers, would mark the first increase in 6 quarters, underpinning a recovery in the local consumption of the metal
#copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🇵🇪Peru’s copper production declined 2% YoY in January, reversing from the sharp 20% YoY growth in December. Overall, the dynamics were driven by local political unrest and transportation blockades, which affected mining at key domestic copper pits, such as Las Bambas (1.4% of world mined Cu supply) and Antapaccay (0.8%). Although the news might be slightly supportive for the sentiment on copper, local authorities expect the metal's shipments to normalise soon
🛒Global aluminium producers are offering 45-70% higher QoQ premiums for 2Q23, Reuters reports, citing sources involved in the pricing talks. However, the figure is still 15-27% lower YoY. Meanwhile, suppliers offered a USD 125-145/t surcharge for Japanese buyers (Asia's largest Al importer), expecting higher demand from automakers. The proposal, if agreed by buyers, would mark the first increase in 6 quarters, underpinning a recovery in the local consumption of the metal
#copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season is coming to an end, no major miners (under our coverage) are due to report their earning this week. We await for the official production data from China and South Africa
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
As the reporting season is coming to an end, no major miners (under our coverage) are due to report their earning this week. We await for the official production data from China and South Africa
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Morning Bites (Part 1)
⛏China is aiming to tackle the growth in iron ore prices, which is more than 50% since October. The Chinese authorities are urging companies that store massive volumes to sell some of their materials. They are also considering raising port-storage fees for large cargoes in order to stimulate trade. China is the largest iron ore consumer (~70% of the world's imports), and such regulations might exert pressure on prices, although there has been no effect so far.
🇵🇦First Quantum has resumed operations at the port of Punta Rincon after the suspension since 23 February, Reuters reports. First Quantum halted ore processing operations in February after exceeding the storage limit of copper concentrate (~10kt). Cobre Panama accounts for 1.5% of global copper output, while 60% of Punta Rincon's copper concentrate export is destined for China.
#iron_ore #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
⛏China is aiming to tackle the growth in iron ore prices, which is more than 50% since October. The Chinese authorities are urging companies that store massive volumes to sell some of their materials. They are also considering raising port-storage fees for large cargoes in order to stimulate trade. China is the largest iron ore consumer (~70% of the world's imports), and such regulations might exert pressure on prices, although there has been no effect so far.
🇵🇦First Quantum has resumed operations at the port of Punta Rincon after the suspension since 23 February, Reuters reports. First Quantum halted ore processing operations in February after exceeding the storage limit of copper concentrate (~10kt). Cobre Panama accounts for 1.5% of global copper output, while 60% of Punta Rincon's copper concentrate export is destined for China.
#iron_ore #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
👍1
Morning Bites (Part 2)
💎India’s rough diamond net imports fell 18% YoY in February, less than the -33% YoY in January. Meanwhile India’s polished diamond net exports grew 23% YoY (vs. -31% YoY in January) after the continuous decline since September 2022. Therefore, we reiterate our outlook regarding the stressed macroeconomic conditions and the notable decrease in De Beers sales, that are keeping the diamond sector under pressure
Meanwhile, India’s synthetic rough diamond net imports decreased 60% YoY in February (vs. -8% YoY in January). However, the share of lab-grown net rough imports in natural diamond imports fell to 4% in February (vs. 7% a year ago)
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports fell 18% YoY in February, less than the -33% YoY in January. Meanwhile India’s polished diamond net exports grew 23% YoY (vs. -31% YoY in January) after the continuous decline since September 2022. Therefore, we reiterate our outlook regarding the stressed macroeconomic conditions and the notable decrease in De Beers sales, that are keeping the diamond sector under pressure
Meanwhile, India’s synthetic rough diamond net imports decreased 60% YoY in February (vs. -8% YoY in January). However, the share of lab-grown net rough imports in natural diamond imports fell to 4% in February (vs. 7% a year ago)
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (Part 1)
🇵🇪Peru’s Las Bambas copper mine is returning to full capacity, following the removal of roadblocks that had disrupted transporation, MMG reports. The miner is also negotiating with local communities to ensure stable supply and export logistics at the pit (1.4% of global mined Cu supply). Overall, the news is in line with the recent claims by local authorities, that most of the effect on sentiment is likely already priced in by the market
⛏The work at Guinea's Simandou iron ore project is set to resume in March, as the government and shareholders have agreed on the joint venture's terms, according to Reuters. This is likely to support the previous plans to restart development this month. To recap, the domestic authorities see the first production in March 2025. We reiterate our view that the timing is rather ambitious, amid the mine's huge size (~4% of world production in 2022E) and given the local political uncertainties
#copper #iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🇵🇪Peru’s Las Bambas copper mine is returning to full capacity, following the removal of roadblocks that had disrupted transporation, MMG reports. The miner is also negotiating with local communities to ensure stable supply and export logistics at the pit (1.4% of global mined Cu supply). Overall, the news is in line with the recent claims by local authorities, that most of the effect on sentiment is likely already priced in by the market
⛏The work at Guinea's Simandou iron ore project is set to resume in March, as the government and shareholders have agreed on the joint venture's terms, according to Reuters. This is likely to support the previous plans to restart development this month. To recap, the domestic authorities see the first production in March 2025. We reiterate our view that the timing is rather ambitious, amid the mine's huge size (~4% of world production in 2022E) and given the local political uncertainties
#copper #iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (Part 2)
🏭EU steelmakers are restarting idled capacities, amid higher steel prices, S&P Global reports. On our numbers, the suspended operations accounted for ~10% of EU steel capacity in 2022E. At the same time, according to the source, local producers have depleted the massive inventories accumulated during 1H22, while higher electricity costs and lower output were driving prices up. As such, last week, EU HRC quotations jumped 26% from their early-December levels, although that was still 40% lower YoY. Overall, the EU production recovery is unlikely to have a substantial effect on global prices (the idled capacities represent <1% of the global steel supply), while the process might be rather stretched over time. To recap, local steel output was still down 15% YoY in January (after the -18% YoY in December)
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🏭EU steelmakers are restarting idled capacities, amid higher steel prices, S&P Global reports. On our numbers, the suspended operations accounted for ~10% of EU steel capacity in 2022E. At the same time, according to the source, local producers have depleted the massive inventories accumulated during 1H22, while higher electricity costs and lower output were driving prices up. As such, last week, EU HRC quotations jumped 26% from their early-December levels, although that was still 40% lower YoY. Overall, the EU production recovery is unlikely to have a substantial effect on global prices (the idled capacities represent <1% of the global steel supply), while the process might be rather stretched over time. To recap, local steel output was still down 15% YoY in January (after the -18% YoY in December)
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for January-February (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (Part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output grew 7% YoY in January-February, after the 10% YoY drop in December. According to Reuters, these dynamics were due to domestic producers anticipating a pick-up in demand in March. Meanwhile, apparent steel consumption was up 4% YoY, vs. the 11% YoY decrease in December. To recap, the strong February PMIs in China indicate a potential recovery in domestic steel demand
🏢China's property sales dropped 4% YoY in January-February (vs. -32% YoY in December). This was 13% lower than the 2021 level. Floor space starts were down 9% YoY (-20% vs. 2021) in the last two months, after the 44% YoY decline in December. Personal mortgage loans came in 15% lower YoY (vs. -29% in December). However, property completions grew 8% YoY in January-February (vs. -7% YoY in December). Despite the still weak real estate segment, China’s strong liquidity injections data might bolster local construction activity in 2023
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output grew 7% YoY in January-February, after the 10% YoY drop in December. According to Reuters, these dynamics were due to domestic producers anticipating a pick-up in demand in March. Meanwhile, apparent steel consumption was up 4% YoY, vs. the 11% YoY decrease in December. To recap, the strong February PMIs in China indicate a potential recovery in domestic steel demand
🏢China's property sales dropped 4% YoY in January-February (vs. -32% YoY in December). This was 13% lower than the 2021 level. Floor space starts were down 9% YoY (-20% vs. 2021) in the last two months, after the 44% YoY decline in December. Personal mortgage loans came in 15% lower YoY (vs. -29% in December). However, property completions grew 8% YoY in January-February (vs. -7% YoY in December). Despite the still weak real estate segment, China’s strong liquidity injections data might bolster local construction activity in 2023
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel