Morning Bites
🇵🇪Peru’s copper output was up 20% YoY in December, accelerating from the 15% YoY growth in November. Hence, the country's monthly output reached a new historical record, while its FY22 production rose 5% YoY. According to the Peruvian authorities, the upbeat dynamics were mainly due to higher production at major local mines, including Cerro Verde and Las Bambas. As a result, the combined output of Chile and Peru (~40% of global mined Cu supply) increased 5% YoY in December (vs. roughly flat YoY in November). However, we note that Las Bambas (1.5% of the global supply) has been temporary closed since early February, which poses risks to upcoming copper supplies
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
🇵🇪Peru’s copper output was up 20% YoY in December, accelerating from the 15% YoY growth in November. Hence, the country's monthly output reached a new historical record, while its FY22 production rose 5% YoY. According to the Peruvian authorities, the upbeat dynamics were mainly due to higher production at major local mines, including Cerro Verde and Las Bambas. As a result, the combined output of Chile and Peru (~40% of global mined Cu supply) increased 5% YoY in December (vs. roughly flat YoY in November). However, we note that Las Bambas (1.5% of the global supply) has been temporary closed since early February, which poses risks to upcoming copper supplies
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
ArcelorMittal 4Q22 results - EBITDA above consensus
✏️ArcelorMittal's 4Q22 revenues outperformed both consensus and us, mainly amid better realised prices and sales in the EU segment. However, the increase in cash costs was more dramatic than we expected, which resulted in a modest EBITDA performance (4% above consensus and in line with our estimates)
📉Overall, the company's financials were substantially affected by global inflationary pressures. As a result, Arcelor's cash costs per ton surged >20% YoY and ~9% QoQ, on our numbers
🏭Meanwhile, the company expects its FY23 steel shipments to grow ~5% YoY, supported by a forecasted increase in global ex-China apparent steel consumption (+2-3% YoY)
❗️Overall, at spot, the 1Q23 EBITDA might be materially higher QoQ, bolstered by some stabilisation in cash costs, in our view
#MT #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/MT_US/
✏️ArcelorMittal's 4Q22 revenues outperformed both consensus and us, mainly amid better realised prices and sales in the EU segment. However, the increase in cash costs was more dramatic than we expected, which resulted in a modest EBITDA performance (4% above consensus and in line with our estimates)
📉Overall, the company's financials were substantially affected by global inflationary pressures. As a result, Arcelor's cash costs per ton surged >20% YoY and ~9% QoQ, on our numbers
🏭Meanwhile, the company expects its FY23 steel shipments to grow ~5% YoY, supported by a forecasted increase in global ex-China apparent steel consumption (+2-3% YoY)
❗️Overall, at spot, the 1Q23 EBITDA might be materially higher QoQ, bolstered by some stabilisation in cash costs, in our view
#MT #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/MT_US/
Morning Bites (part 1)
📉Gold-backed ETFs reduced their holdings by 26t through January (after -4t in December). Last month, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), ETF outflows in Europe (-33t) and Asia (-3t) outweighed additions in N. America (+9t) and the rest of the world (+2t). In our view, ETF sales still remain the main factor pressuring gold prices – especially amid skyrocketing physical gold demand in 4Q22
💎US jewellery sales fell 2% YoY in December, decelerating after the revised 5% YoY drop in November. Overall, the results were slightly better than the preliminary figure. Hence, we reiterate our view that the ongoing decline in US jewellery sales is one of the negative drivers for the diamond sector (at least in the short-term), given the country accounts for ~50% of global diamond jewellery sales
#diamonds #ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
📉Gold-backed ETFs reduced their holdings by 26t through January (after -4t in December). Last month, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), ETF outflows in Europe (-33t) and Asia (-3t) outweighed additions in N. America (+9t) and the rest of the world (+2t). In our view, ETF sales still remain the main factor pressuring gold prices – especially amid skyrocketing physical gold demand in 4Q22
💎US jewellery sales fell 2% YoY in December, decelerating after the revised 5% YoY drop in November. Overall, the results were slightly better than the preliminary figure. Hence, we reiterate our view that the ongoing decline in US jewellery sales is one of the negative drivers for the diamond sector (at least in the short-term), given the country accounts for ~50% of global diamond jewellery sales
#diamonds #ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output declined a further 5% YoY in December, after the 22% YoY drop in November. Meanwhile, the country’s gold production shrank 3% YoY, slightly decelerating from the -5% YoY in November. We note that electricity shortages, logistical issues and inflationary pressures keep affecting domestic production. Furthermore, according to Bloomberg, the electricity crunch and blackouts are expected to last at least two more years. Hence, in our view, the continuous production disruptions are supportive for PGMs and gold prices, given South Africa accounts for ~70% and 38% of global platinum and palladium supply, respectively (and 3% of gold output). However, as of today, we do not see substantial growth triggers in Pd/Pt prices, mostly amid the weak prospects for automotive demand
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output declined a further 5% YoY in December, after the 22% YoY drop in November. Meanwhile, the country’s gold production shrank 3% YoY, slightly decelerating from the -5% YoY in November. We note that electricity shortages, logistical issues and inflationary pressures keep affecting domestic production. Furthermore, according to Bloomberg, the electricity crunch and blackouts are expected to last at least two more years. Hence, in our view, the continuous production disruptions are supportive for PGMs and gold prices, given South Africa accounts for ~70% and 38% of global platinum and palladium supply, respectively (and 3% of gold output). However, as of today, we do not see substantial growth triggers in Pd/Pt prices, mostly amid the weak prospects for automotive demand
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 3)
⛏MMG's Las Bambas copper mine in Peru continues to produce at a reduced rate, despite the recent announcement of a suspension of operations. According to the company, it managed to secure critical supplies, but they are still low: Las Bambas remains under the risk of a temporary closure (a period of care and maintenance). According to Reuters, power usage at the key mines in Peru (11% of the global Cu production) remained near normal levels, despite protests that have lasted for more than two months. Although the news might add some stress to sentiment, we maintain our positive view on copper, amid historically low level of inventories and the potential recovery of demand in China
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
⛏MMG's Las Bambas copper mine in Peru continues to produce at a reduced rate, despite the recent announcement of a suspension of operations. According to the company, it managed to secure critical supplies, but they are still low: Las Bambas remains under the risk of a temporary closure (a period of care and maintenance). According to Reuters, power usage at the key mines in Peru (11% of the global Cu production) remained near normal levels, despite protests that have lasted for more than two months. Although the news might add some stress to sentiment, we maintain our positive view on copper, amid historically low level of inventories and the potential recovery of demand in China
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As reporting season continues, several major miners are to report their earnings. For most of the names publishing this week, our 4Q22/2H22 EBITDA forecasts are slightly below the consensus estimates, but we are more upbeat on Agnico, Fortescue and Barrick
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
As reporting season continues, several major miners are to report their earnings. For most of the names publishing this week, our 4Q22/2H22 EBITDA forecasts are slightly below the consensus estimates, but we are more upbeat on Agnico, Fortescue and Barrick
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production grew 2.6% to 1.99mnt in late-January, from the second ten days of the month. This was 1.3% lower YoY, vs. the 2.6% YoY decline in the previous ten days. The local steel stock rose 2.6% over the period (20.5% above the 2022 level, as of 31 January), which implies soft domestic demand for steel. We note that China’s upcoming aggregate financing data for January (historically the most important month) might determine the steel sector’s prospects in 2023
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales were up 2% YoY in December, after the 1% YoY growth in November. However, the sales were down 9% YoY in FY22 (vs +31% in 2021), affected by city-wide lockdowns and employment issues. Although easing Covid-19 measures might bolster future gem-set jewellery sales in China (some 15% of the world market), this is unlikely to trigger a global recovery in the stressed diamond sector, in our view
#steel #diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production grew 2.6% to 1.99mnt in late-January, from the second ten days of the month. This was 1.3% lower YoY, vs. the 2.6% YoY decline in the previous ten days. The local steel stock rose 2.6% over the period (20.5% above the 2022 level, as of 31 January), which implies soft domestic demand for steel. We note that China’s upcoming aggregate financing data for January (historically the most important month) might determine the steel sector’s prospects in 2023
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales were up 2% YoY in December, after the 1% YoY growth in November. However, the sales were down 9% YoY in FY22 (vs +31% in 2021), affected by city-wide lockdowns and employment issues. Although easing Covid-19 measures might bolster future gem-set jewellery sales in China (some 15% of the world market), this is unlikely to trigger a global recovery in the stressed diamond sector, in our view
#steel #diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
📝Norilsk Nickel has provided an updated market balance across its metals basket
• Regarding nickel, the market surplus has been revised to 122kt in 2023, vs. its previous estimate of 110kt, amid higher low-grade Ni supplies from Indonesia and compounds
• Concerning the PGM segment, the miner now expects a 0.3mnoz palladium deficit (vs. 0.8mnoz previously) due to a slower recovery of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle production
• Simultaneously, it expects a lower surplus on the platinum market (0.2mnoz vs. 0.3mnoz earlier), mainly driven by production issues in South Africa
• Meanwhile, the copper market balance has been reviewed to a 160kt deficit, vs. 140kt surplus earlier, following political protests in Peru that threaten production
#PGMs #nickel #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
📝Norilsk Nickel has provided an updated market balance across its metals basket
• Regarding nickel, the market surplus has been revised to 122kt in 2023, vs. its previous estimate of 110kt, amid higher low-grade Ni supplies from Indonesia and compounds
• Concerning the PGM segment, the miner now expects a 0.3mnoz palladium deficit (vs. 0.8mnoz previously) due to a slower recovery of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle production
• Simultaneously, it expects a lower surplus on the platinum market (0.2mnoz vs. 0.3mnoz earlier), mainly driven by production issues in South Africa
• Meanwhile, the copper market balance has been reviewed to a 160kt deficit, vs. 140kt surplus earlier, following political protests in Peru that threaten production
#PGMs #nickel #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 3)
⛔️Freeport-McMoran has temporarily halted operations at its Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia after heavy rain and a landslide. According to the company, its processing plant had mudflow, while the mine road was partially damaged. However, the miner estimates that operations might be restored by late-February, with no impact on the site's long-term plans. Overall, we do not anticipate a substantial effect on the market, as the mine’s operations (~3.1% of global copper output) are to resume relatively soon
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
⛔️Freeport-McMoran has temporarily halted operations at its Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia after heavy rain and a landslide. According to the company, its processing plant had mudflow, while the mine road was partially damaged. However, the miner estimates that operations might be restored by late-February, with no impact on the site's long-term plans. Overall, we do not anticipate a substantial effect on the market, as the mine’s operations (~3.1% of global copper output) are to resume relatively soon
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇨🇳China's central bank reports strong financing data for January
📝The county’s total aggregate financing (a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy) remained near record levels, close to CNY 5.98tn, despite some slowdown in annual terms (-3.2% YoY). The result was 10.7% above the consensus estimates of CNY 5.40tn
❗️Solid injections in January have traditionally been a strong supportive factor for domestic construction activity for the upcoming year. We believe that the robust January 2023 headline financing number is likely to bolster sentiment for industrial metals (e.g., steel and base metals)
🛒To recap, China accounts for some 52% of global steel consumption, as well as for 55% and 58% of world copper and aluminium demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
📝The county’s total aggregate financing (a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy) remained near record levels, close to CNY 5.98tn, despite some slowdown in annual terms (-3.2% YoY). The result was 10.7% above the consensus estimates of CNY 5.40tn
❗️Solid injections in January have traditionally been a strong supportive factor for domestic construction activity for the upcoming year. We believe that the robust January 2023 headline financing number is likely to bolster sentiment for industrial metals (e.g., steel and base metals)
🛒To recap, China accounts for some 52% of global steel consumption, as well as for 55% and 58% of world copper and aluminium demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
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Morning Bites (part 1)
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales plunged 41% YoY in January, after the 23% YoY fall in December. The sharp decline might be due to growing demand for EVs locally and the celebration of the Lunar New Year coming earlier than in previous years. Overall, weak ICE car sales in China are likely to pressure global PGM consumption: China’s auto sector accounts for some 26% and 17% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China shrank 6% YoY in January, following the 52% YoY growth in December. This was the first decline in annual terms since mid-2020. Despite some seasonal effect, sales were also hit by reduced EV subsidies and market price fluctuations. Hence, the dynamics (were they to persist) might weigh on demand for battery metals (e.g., nickel, lithium and cobalt), as China represented ~55% of global EV sales in December
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales plunged 41% YoY in January, after the 23% YoY fall in December. The sharp decline might be due to growing demand for EVs locally and the celebration of the Lunar New Year coming earlier than in previous years. Overall, weak ICE car sales in China are likely to pressure global PGM consumption: China’s auto sector accounts for some 26% and 17% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China shrank 6% YoY in January, following the 52% YoY growth in December. This was the first decline in annual terms since mid-2020. Despite some seasonal effect, sales were also hit by reduced EV subsidies and market price fluctuations. Hence, the dynamics (were they to persist) might weigh on demand for battery metals (e.g., nickel, lithium and cobalt), as China represented ~55% of global EV sales in December
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍US preliminary jewellery sales were up 6% YoY in January, after the 2% YoY fall in December. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, the earlier start to Valentine's Day shopping likely bolstered local consumer spending. Despite the potentially upbeat results in the US (~50% of global diamond jewellery retail sales), we maintain our negative view on the diamond sector globally, amid unfavourable macroeconomic conditions and the substantial drop in De Beers’ recent rough sales
🔋Vulcan Energy Resources expects to produce 60% more lithium in Germany, compared with the preliminary feasibility study. The first output is seen in late-2025, with full production to be reached by 2027. On our numbers, the revised capacity increase (to ~27kt LCE per annum) accounts for <1% of global Li supply in 2025F, so we expect only a marginal effect on the market balance
#diamonds #lithium
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
💍US preliminary jewellery sales were up 6% YoY in January, after the 2% YoY fall in December. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, the earlier start to Valentine's Day shopping likely bolstered local consumer spending. Despite the potentially upbeat results in the US (~50% of global diamond jewellery retail sales), we maintain our negative view on the diamond sector globally, amid unfavourable macroeconomic conditions and the substantial drop in De Beers’ recent rough sales
🔋Vulcan Energy Resources expects to produce 60% more lithium in Germany, compared with the preliminary feasibility study. The first output is seen in late-2025, with full production to be reached by 2027. On our numbers, the revised capacity increase (to ~27kt LCE per annum) accounts for <1% of global Li supply in 2025F, so we expect only a marginal effect on the market balance
#diamonds #lithium
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Peabody Energy 4Q22 results - moderately positive
✏️Peabody's 4Q22 revenue has materially outperformed both the consensus and us, mainly due to higher realised coal prices across most of the company’s divisions, which offset a hefty cash cost per ton increase of 26% QoQ (37% above our forecast). As a result, EBITDA remained higher than market expectations (+3% vs. the consensus and +6% vs. us)
❗️Regarding the outlook for 2023, the company expects its coal sales to grow ~6% YoY. However, the average cost burden is to grow in the low-double digits from the already elevated 4Q22 level
📊In our view, at spot, the company’s 1Q23 EBITDA is likely to be moderately lower QoQ, due softer sales volumes (amid weather effects and the planned movement of a longwall at one of the mines)
#BTU #coal
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/BTU_US/
✏️Peabody's 4Q22 revenue has materially outperformed both the consensus and us, mainly due to higher realised coal prices across most of the company’s divisions, which offset a hefty cash cost per ton increase of 26% QoQ (37% above our forecast). As a result, EBITDA remained higher than market expectations (+3% vs. the consensus and +6% vs. us)
❗️Regarding the outlook for 2023, the company expects its coal sales to grow ~6% YoY. However, the average cost burden is to grow in the low-double digits from the already elevated 4Q22 level
📊In our view, at spot, the company’s 1Q23 EBITDA is likely to be moderately lower QoQ, due softer sales volumes (amid weather effects and the planned movement of a longwall at one of the mines)
#BTU #coal
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/BTU_US/
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏆Turkey is partially suspending gold imports, Bloomberg reports, citing a government-related source, as an emergency measure to help the local economy overcome the aftermath of the recent earthquakes. According to World Gold Council (WGC), Turkey's central bank was the biggest identified buyer of gold in 2022 (+147.6t) among institutions (13% of their purchases) and represented 3% of world physical gold demand. Although the country’s Treasury and Finance Ministry declined to comment, the news might add some stress to the bullish gold case
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏆Turkey is partially suspending gold imports, Bloomberg reports, citing a government-related source, as an emergency measure to help the local economy overcome the aftermath of the recent earthquakes. According to World Gold Council (WGC), Turkey's central bank was the biggest identified buyer of gold in 2022 (+147.6t) among institutions (13% of their purchases) and represented 3% of world physical gold demand. Although the country’s Treasury and Finance Ministry declined to comment, the news might add some stress to the bullish gold case
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗The twin earthquakes in Turkey have temporarily shut down steel production in the affected regions, Bloomberg reports, citing Veysel Yayan, the Secretary General of the Turkish Steel Producers Association. On our numbers, the idled enterprises might account for up to 32% of the country’s steel capacity. Furthermore, according to the association, steel mills in the Hatay and Osmaniye regions might remain shut until late-February or mid-March. Although there was no significant damage to the plants, many employees died or lost family members. In 2022, Turkey accounted for 1.9% of global crude steel production, so idling production is unlikely to have a substantial effect on the global steel market, in our view
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗The twin earthquakes in Turkey have temporarily shut down steel production in the affected regions, Bloomberg reports, citing Veysel Yayan, the Secretary General of the Turkish Steel Producers Association. On our numbers, the idled enterprises might account for up to 32% of the country’s steel capacity. Furthermore, according to the association, steel mills in the Hatay and Osmaniye regions might remain shut until late-February or mid-March. Although there was no significant damage to the plants, many employees died or lost family members. In 2022, Turkey accounted for 1.9% of global crude steel production, so idling production is unlikely to have a substantial effect on the global steel market, in our view
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
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Morning Bites (part 3)
💎De Beers' diamond deal with Botswana is under risk, as the country's government is ready to quit discussions, according to Bloomberg. The parties have been negotiating for a new agreement since 2018 (the current deal expires in June) particularly on the sales of rough diamonds from De Beers (~28% of the world supply in 2022F). The Botswanan president, Mokgweetsi Masisi, is pushing to purchase up to 50% of the stones mined in the joint venture between the African country and De Beers (vs. the 25% limit, as of today). Botswana accounts for ~70% of De Beers’ rough production: hence, in our view, some material volume of the global rough diamond supply might be at risk, if the parties fail to reach an agreement. To recap, under the 2011 deal, De Beers received 90% of the rough diamonds produced, while in 2020, its share was decreased to 75%
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎De Beers' diamond deal with Botswana is under risk, as the country's government is ready to quit discussions, according to Bloomberg. The parties have been negotiating for a new agreement since 2018 (the current deal expires in June) particularly on the sales of rough diamonds from De Beers (~28% of the world supply in 2022F). The Botswanan president, Mokgweetsi Masisi, is pushing to purchase up to 50% of the stones mined in the joint venture between the African country and De Beers (vs. the 25% limit, as of today). Botswana accounts for ~70% of De Beers’ rough production: hence, in our view, some material volume of the global rough diamond supply might be at risk, if the parties fail to reach an agreement. To recap, under the 2011 deal, De Beers received 90% of the rough diamonds produced, while in 2020, its share was decreased to 75%
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
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Fortescue results for fiscal 1H23 - in line with us
📝Fortescue's fiscal 1H23 revenues came broadly in line with us, but were 4% above consensus. EBITDA was also in line with us, while beating the consensus estimates by 10%
📌Fortescue's C1 cash cost grew 5% HoH and 15% YoY, generally in line with our estimates. The company expects a further ~10% HoH increase in its C1 cost in 2H23 (the FY23 cost guidance was confirmed at USD 18-18.75/wmt), although that is not going to undermine its leading positions on the global cash cost curve
📌At spot prices, EBITDA in fiscal 2H23 might be substantially above 1H23 due to the conducive prices environment, we think
#FMG #iron
https://metals-wire.com/company/FMG_AU/
📝Fortescue's fiscal 1H23 revenues came broadly in line with us, but were 4% above consensus. EBITDA was also in line with us, while beating the consensus estimates by 10%
📌Fortescue's C1 cash cost grew 5% HoH and 15% YoY, generally in line with our estimates. The company expects a further ~10% HoH increase in its C1 cost in 2H23 (the FY23 cost guidance was confirmed at USD 18-18.75/wmt), although that is not going to undermine its leading positions on the global cash cost curve
📌At spot prices, EBITDA in fiscal 2H23 might be substantially above 1H23 due to the conducive prices environment, we think
#FMG #iron
https://metals-wire.com/company/FMG_AU/
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