Morning Bites (part 1)
☢️Kazatomprom’s output declined 1% YoY in 4Q22. Overall, throughout FY22, the company produced 3% less uranium YoY (on a 100% basis), which was close to the lower end of its guidance. Sales volumes plunged 63% YoY in 4Q22, because of the specific timing of deliveries and customer requirements. As for 2023, production is now seen 1% below the FY22 level, due to delays and limited access to some key materials and equipment. We note that the updated guidance for 2023 is 8% lower than the previous forecast. Hence, in our view, the production recovery previously envisaged in 2023-24 might also be at risk. That is likely to add support for the commodity's price, as Kazakhstan represents almost 40% of global mined uranium output
#uranium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Uranium
☢️Kazatomprom’s output declined 1% YoY in 4Q22. Overall, throughout FY22, the company produced 3% less uranium YoY (on a 100% basis), which was close to the lower end of its guidance. Sales volumes plunged 63% YoY in 4Q22, because of the specific timing of deliveries and customer requirements. As for 2023, production is now seen 1% below the FY22 level, due to delays and limited access to some key materials and equipment. We note that the updated guidance for 2023 is 8% lower than the previous forecast. Hence, in our view, the production recovery previously envisaged in 2023-24 might also be at risk. That is likely to add support for the commodity's price, as Kazakhstan represents almost 40% of global mined uranium output
#uranium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Uranium
Morning Bites (part 2)
⛏First Quantum will not be allowed to expand operations at its Panama mine. According to the country’s Environment Minister, the company asked for some additional operating area at its Cobre Panama asset (1.5% of global copper output), but the request has been denied amid environmental concerns. At the same time, First Quantum denied requesting additional land. In our view, the obstacles to expanding local mining might be a slightly positive factor for copper prices in the long term
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
⛏First Quantum will not be allowed to expand operations at its Panama mine. According to the country’s Environment Minister, the company asked for some additional operating area at its Cobre Panama asset (1.5% of global copper output), but the request has been denied amid environmental concerns. At the same time, First Quantum denied requesting additional land. In our view, the obstacles to expanding local mining might be a slightly positive factor for copper prices in the long term
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues, three companies in the sector are due to publish their earnings. For all of the names reporting this week, our 4Q22/2H22 EBITDA forecasts are slightly below the consensus estimates
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
As the reporting season continues, three companies in the sector are due to publish their earnings. For all of the names reporting this week, our 4Q22/2H22 EBITDA forecasts are slightly below the consensus estimates
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s aluminium products output shrank 4% YoY to 5.62mt in December, vs. +7% YoY in November. Despite the slowdown in production, the monthly output during 2H22 was still close to its historical highs. Therefore, were the generally strong dynamics to persist, that could be favourable for aluminium prices: China accounted for ~58% of world primary Al demand in 2022
📈Chinese output of copper products was up 4% YoY in December to 2.16mt, decelerating from the 9% YoY growth in November. The figure was supported by a 36% YoY surge in the output of domestic power generation equipment (vs. +8% YoY in November)
📌We keep our positive view on copper and aluminium, as the reopening of China is likely to bolster industrial metals consumption. At the same time, traceable stocks of Cu and Al remain low, globally, which might amplify the positive effect on their prices
#aluminium #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🔗China’s aluminium products output shrank 4% YoY to 5.62mt in December, vs. +7% YoY in November. Despite the slowdown in production, the monthly output during 2H22 was still close to its historical highs. Therefore, were the generally strong dynamics to persist, that could be favourable for aluminium prices: China accounted for ~58% of world primary Al demand in 2022
📈Chinese output of copper products was up 4% YoY in December to 2.16mt, decelerating from the 9% YoY growth in November. The figure was supported by a 36% YoY surge in the output of domestic power generation equipment (vs. +8% YoY in November)
📌We keep our positive view on copper and aluminium, as the reopening of China is likely to bolster industrial metals consumption. At the same time, traceable stocks of Cu and Al remain low, globally, which might amplify the positive effect on their prices
#aluminium #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales are seen 17% lower YoY in January (domestic + export), vs. the 30% YoY drop in December, based on industry estimates provided by SteelOrbis. Meanwhile, domestic excavator sales might decline 58% YoY, after the 60% YoY fall in December, amid the Covid-19 effects and unfavourable market conditions. Hence, potentially weak domestic sales support our view that the stagnating Chinese real estate segment is not going to see a short-term recovery. That would likely weigh further on the demand for industrial metals (particularly for steel)
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales are seen 17% lower YoY in January (domestic + export), vs. the 30% YoY drop in December, based on industry estimates provided by SteelOrbis. Meanwhile, domestic excavator sales might decline 58% YoY, after the 60% YoY fall in December, amid the Covid-19 effects and unfavourable market conditions. Hence, potentially weak domestic sales support our view that the stagnating Chinese real estate segment is not going to see a short-term recovery. That would likely weigh further on the demand for industrial metals (particularly for steel)
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 3)
💍LVMH has reported 3% YoY growth in the organic sales of watches and jewellery in 4Q22, vs. the 16% YoY increase in 3Q22. Overall, the FY22 results were 12% higher YoY. According to the company, Tiffany & Co. had a record year in the segment, with high-jewellery revenues doubling. In addition, LVMH's other major brands also saw positive momentum throughout 2022, particularly in the EU, US and Japan. However, the slowing YoY growth rate in 4Q22 underpins the risks to global jewellery demand, amid adverse macroeconomic conditions, which might be a limiting factor for diamond demand
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍LVMH has reported 3% YoY growth in the organic sales of watches and jewellery in 4Q22, vs. the 16% YoY increase in 3Q22. Overall, the FY22 results were 12% higher YoY. According to the company, Tiffany & Co. had a record year in the segment, with high-jewellery revenues doubling. In addition, LVMH's other major brands also saw positive momentum throughout 2022, particularly in the EU, US and Japan. However, the slowing YoY growth rate in 4Q22 underpins the risks to global jewellery demand, amid adverse macroeconomic conditions, which might be a limiting factor for diamond demand
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 4)
📝The Philippines government is considering a 10% tax on nickel ore exports, Reuters reports. The potential decision could encourage the country's producers to invest in domestic processing, as was the case in Indonesia (~40% of world mined Ni supply). Meanwhile, according to Dante Bravo, the President of the local Nickel Industry Association, the negative impact on domestic producers from a 10% tax might be substantial. On our numbers, Philippines Ni-content exports accounted for >12% of the global nickel market in 2021: the news is likely to add support to the sentiment on nickel prices
#nickel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Nickel
📝The Philippines government is considering a 10% tax on nickel ore exports, Reuters reports. The potential decision could encourage the country's producers to invest in domestic processing, as was the case in Indonesia (~40% of world mined Ni supply). Meanwhile, according to Dante Bravo, the President of the local Nickel Industry Association, the negative impact on domestic producers from a 10% tax might be substantial. On our numbers, Philippines Ni-content exports accounted for >12% of the global nickel market in 2021: the news is likely to add support to the sentiment on nickel prices
#nickel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Nickel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏆Global physical gold demand rose 25% YoY to 1,453t in 4Q22, after the 48% YoY increase in 3Q22, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). At the same time, global total gold demand was also up 19% YoY (vs. +26% YoY in 3Q22), mainly driven by the >10x YoY increase in the demand from central banks and other institutions. We note that central bank purchases during FY22 (+2.5x YoY) were at their highest level since 1967. We believe that an important contributor to this growth was PBoC, which initiated purchases in November and December. However, the demand for gold jewellery was down 13% YoY in 4Q22 (vs. +10% YoY in 3Q22), mostly driven by YoY decreases of 27% in China and 17% in India. Meanwhile, gold mine production fell ~1% YoY in 4Q22, reversing from the 2% YoY growth in 3Q22
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏆Global physical gold demand rose 25% YoY to 1,453t in 4Q22, after the 48% YoY increase in 3Q22, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). At the same time, global total gold demand was also up 19% YoY (vs. +26% YoY in 3Q22), mainly driven by the >10x YoY increase in the demand from central banks and other institutions. We note that central bank purchases during FY22 (+2.5x YoY) were at their highest level since 1967. We believe that an important contributor to this growth was PBoC, which initiated purchases in November and December. However, the demand for gold jewellery was down 13% YoY in 4Q22 (vs. +10% YoY in 3Q22), mostly driven by YoY decreases of 27% in China and 17% in India. Meanwhile, gold mine production fell ~1% YoY in 4Q22, reversing from the 2% YoY growth in 3Q22
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗Global crude steel output was down 11% YoY to 141mnt in December, accelerating from the 3% YoY decline in November, according to the World Steel Association. Meanwhile, the 10% YoY fall in steel output in China, which accounted for 55% of global steel production in December (vs. 54% in November), was overall driven by weak property sector demand and the effects of Covid-19. Ex-China steel output shrank 13% YoY, which was roughly in-line with the previous month. Steel output in the EU declined further, by 18% YoY (vs. -20% YoY in November), amid the energy crisis there which forced plants to idle. US steel production decreased 10% YoY (vs. -11% YoY in November). The data also show, we note, that the decline in Russia’s steel output accelerated to 17% YoY in December, from -11% YoY in November
📉Hence, we keep our negative view on global steel production, amid adverse macroeconomic conditions globally
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🔗Global crude steel output was down 11% YoY to 141mnt in December, accelerating from the 3% YoY decline in November, according to the World Steel Association. Meanwhile, the 10% YoY fall in steel output in China, which accounted for 55% of global steel production in December (vs. 54% in November), was overall driven by weak property sector demand and the effects of Covid-19. Ex-China steel output shrank 13% YoY, which was roughly in-line with the previous month. Steel output in the EU declined further, by 18% YoY (vs. -20% YoY in November), amid the energy crisis there which forced plants to idle. US steel production decreased 10% YoY (vs. -11% YoY in November). The data also show, we note, that the decline in Russia’s steel output accelerated to 17% YoY in December, from -11% YoY in November
📉Hence, we keep our negative view on global steel production, amid adverse macroeconomic conditions globally
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 3)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production grew 0.6% to 1.94mnt in mid-January, from the first ten days of the month. Nevertheless, this was 2.6% lower YoY, vs. the -2.1% YoY in the previous ten days. In turn, the steel inventories rose 7.9% over the period (22.2% above the 2022 level, as of 20 January). Consequently, we reiterate our view that the continuous YoY inventories build-up (since late-1Q22) implies soft demand for steel in China
💎Zimbabwe aims to double its rough diamond production to 10mnct in 2023, according to the country’s mines and mining development deputy minister. This strong growth forecast comes on the back of investments into the domestic diamond industry (particularly, the development of the Murowa and the expansion of Anjin’s operations in the country); however, we believe that these expectations are overly bullish. The new capacity additions represent >4% of the global rough supply in 2022F
#steel #diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production grew 0.6% to 1.94mnt in mid-January, from the first ten days of the month. Nevertheless, this was 2.6% lower YoY, vs. the -2.1% YoY in the previous ten days. In turn, the steel inventories rose 7.9% over the period (22.2% above the 2022 level, as of 20 January). Consequently, we reiterate our view that the continuous YoY inventories build-up (since late-1Q22) implies soft demand for steel in China
💎Zimbabwe aims to double its rough diamond production to 10mnct in 2023, according to the country’s mines and mining development deputy minister. This strong growth forecast comes on the back of investments into the domestic diamond industry (particularly, the development of the Murowa and the expansion of Anjin’s operations in the country); however, we believe that these expectations are overly bullish. The new capacity additions represent >4% of the global rough supply in 2022F
#steel #diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 4)
💎De Beers has reported sales of USD 450mn at its 1st cycle in 2023, 27% below the historical average and 32% lower YoY (vs. +24% YoY at the 10th cycle in 2022). According to De Beers CEO Bruce Cleaver, the cycle’s sightholders were cautious in late-2022 when planning their 2023 spending, with a greater weighting of goods expected to be bought in the coming months. Cleaver also noted some positive demand prospects, with China reopening and inflationary pressures in many major economies gradually decreasing. Weak January sales support our view that global diamond demand is likely to remain squeezed amid the adverse macroeconomic conditions, at least in the near future
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎De Beers has reported sales of USD 450mn at its 1st cycle in 2023, 27% below the historical average and 32% lower YoY (vs. +24% YoY at the 10th cycle in 2022). According to De Beers CEO Bruce Cleaver, the cycle’s sightholders were cautious in late-2022 when planning their 2023 spending, with a greater weighting of goods expected to be bought in the coming months. Cleaver also noted some positive demand prospects, with China reopening and inflationary pressures in many major economies gradually decreasing. Weak January sales support our view that global diamond demand is likely to remain squeezed amid the adverse macroeconomic conditions, at least in the near future
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
⛔️MMG's Las Bambas copper mine in Peru has halted its operations amid protests, according to Bloomberg. This is in line with the company's concerns about the inability to continue production in February. Hence, Las Bambas (1.4% of global copper mined supply) is to go into maintenance following transport interruptions, which have caused a shortage of critical supplies. Overall, the news is supportive for sentiment on copper, but we think it has already been partially priced in by the market
⛏Simandou, a 100mnt iron ore mine project in Guinea, is due to restart in March 2023. The local authorities expect the project's infrastructure (a 600km railway and a port) to be completed by December 2024, with first production in March 2025. Although the mine’s estimated capacity is large (4% of the global iron ore supply in 2022, we estimate), the timing seems overly upbeat to us, especially given the local political uncertainties
#copper #iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
⛔️MMG's Las Bambas copper mine in Peru has halted its operations amid protests, according to Bloomberg. This is in line with the company's concerns about the inability to continue production in February. Hence, Las Bambas (1.4% of global copper mined supply) is to go into maintenance following transport interruptions, which have caused a shortage of critical supplies. Overall, the news is supportive for sentiment on copper, but we think it has already been partially priced in by the market
⛏Simandou, a 100mnt iron ore mine project in Guinea, is due to restart in March 2023. The local authorities expect the project's infrastructure (a 600km railway and a port) to be completed by December 2024, with first production in March 2025. Although the mine’s estimated capacity is large (4% of the global iron ore supply in 2022, we estimate), the timing seems overly upbeat to us, especially given the local political uncertainties
#copper #iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Russian gold output rose 9.3% YoY in December, after the 9.1% YoY growth in November, according to Rosstat. Meanwhile, domestic production of the precious metal was up 2.4% YoY in FY22. Despite some recovery in Russia's production (~9% of global gold mined output) since 1H22, we keep to our positive view on the metal's price, bolstered by the strong prospects for demand
💎The Indian government is to drop the 5% import tax on synthetic-diamond seeds, according to the country's Finance Minister. We note that these are used to create lab-grown rough stones. In addition, the authorities have committed to introducing more measures to support the manufacture of domestic lab-grown goods, including a special shipment code and grants. In our view, the decision is unlikely to have a material effect on sentiment on the natural diamonds market, at least at this stage, as the share of lab-grown trading is still quite small
#gold #diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
📈Russian gold output rose 9.3% YoY in December, after the 9.1% YoY growth in November, according to Rosstat. Meanwhile, domestic production of the precious metal was up 2.4% YoY in FY22. Despite some recovery in Russia's production (~9% of global gold mined output) since 1H22, we keep to our positive view on the metal's price, bolstered by the strong prospects for demand
💎The Indian government is to drop the 5% import tax on synthetic-diamond seeds, according to the country's Finance Minister. We note that these are used to create lab-grown rough stones. In addition, the authorities have committed to introducing more measures to support the manufacture of domestic lab-grown goods, including a special shipment code and grants. In our view, the decision is unlikely to have a material effect on sentiment on the natural diamonds market, at least at this stage, as the share of lab-grown trading is still quite small
#gold #diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites
⛏China plans to increase its coal production further in 2023, Bloomberg reports. According to the recently published government plans, the increase might amount to 100-150mt (up to 3.5% and 1.8% of domestic and world coal supply in 2022E, respectively), with most of the coal coming from Shanxi and Inner Mongolia. Overall, the measure might reflect growing electricity demand from China's reopening. However, in our view, most of the additional (potentially low-quality) volumes are likely to be consumed domestically, with no material impact on global prices
⛔️First Quantum has temporarily halted operations at its Sentinel mine in Zambia after a fatal traffic accident. Although the mine accounted for 1.1% of the global copper output in 2021, we anticipate only a limited effect on prices, as the production is likely to restart soon
#coal #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
⛏China plans to increase its coal production further in 2023, Bloomberg reports. According to the recently published government plans, the increase might amount to 100-150mt (up to 3.5% and 1.8% of domestic and world coal supply in 2022E, respectively), with most of the coal coming from Shanxi and Inner Mongolia. Overall, the measure might reflect growing electricity demand from China's reopening. However, in our view, most of the additional (potentially low-quality) volumes are likely to be consumed domestically, with no material impact on global prices
⛔️First Quantum has temporarily halted operations at its Sentinel mine in Zambia after a fatal traffic accident. Although the mine accounted for 1.1% of the global copper output in 2021, we anticipate only a limited effect on prices, as the production is likely to restart soon
#coal #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
US Steel 4Q22 results - financials above expectations
✏️US Steel's 4Q22 revenues outperformed both consensus and us, as the stronger than we expected realised prices more than fully offset the decline in shipments. Consequently, adjusted EBITDA came 8% above the consensus and 12% higher than us
📉The energy crisis in Europe and global inflation continued to pressure the company's financials. As such, the EU segment's EBITDA was negative for the second consecutive quarter. The two US flat segments also performed weaker than we expected on the EBITDA level, declining ~60% QoQ combined. However, the tubular segment showed a strong performance, with EBITDA growing 30% QoQ
🏭The company expects its 2023 total steel shipments at 15.3-16.3mt, 3-9% above the FY22 result, mainly on the back of shipments from US flat segments recovering
❗️On our numbers, the 1Q23 EBITDA might show a further QoQ decline at spot, due to weaker realised prices
$X #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/X_US/
✏️US Steel's 4Q22 revenues outperformed both consensus and us, as the stronger than we expected realised prices more than fully offset the decline in shipments. Consequently, adjusted EBITDA came 8% above the consensus and 12% higher than us
📉The energy crisis in Europe and global inflation continued to pressure the company's financials. As such, the EU segment's EBITDA was negative for the second consecutive quarter. The two US flat segments also performed weaker than we expected on the EBITDA level, declining ~60% QoQ combined. However, the tubular segment showed a strong performance, with EBITDA growing 30% QoQ
🏭The company expects its 2023 total steel shipments at 15.3-16.3mt, 3-9% above the FY22 result, mainly on the back of shipments from US flat segments recovering
❗️On our numbers, the 1Q23 EBITDA might show a further QoQ decline at spot, due to weaker realised prices
$X #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/X_US/
What is happening in the PGM sector?
📌Demand for Pt/Pd is set to remain sluggish in 2023 amid soft car sales
📝On our numbers, global internal combustion engine (ICE) car sales - PGMs largest consuming segment - shrank ~10% YoY in 2022F, mostly driven by a declines of 12% in China, 15% in EU+UK and 11% in US. As for 2023F, the ICE car sales are expected to stay 5% lower vs. 2021 and >20% weaker vs. pre-Covid 2019
🚘We would like to remind our readers that car autocatalysts represent 83% and 30% of world Pd and Pt demand in 2022F, respectively
❗️Among few positive demand factors, the gradual tightening of global emission regulations might increase average Pd loadings per vehicle in the longer term (China’s shift to 6b from 6a in 2023, etc.)
#PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
📌Demand for Pt/Pd is set to remain sluggish in 2023 amid soft car sales
📝On our numbers, global internal combustion engine (ICE) car sales - PGMs largest consuming segment - shrank ~10% YoY in 2022F, mostly driven by a declines of 12% in China, 15% in EU+UK and 11% in US. As for 2023F, the ICE car sales are expected to stay 5% lower vs. 2021 and >20% weaker vs. pre-Covid 2019
🚘We would like to remind our readers that car autocatalysts represent 83% and 30% of world Pd and Pt demand in 2022F, respectively
❗️Among few positive demand factors, the gradual tightening of global emission regulations might increase average Pd loadings per vehicle in the longer term (China’s shift to 6b from 6a in 2023, etc.)
#PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
📌Production might also remain subdued in coming years
⛏On the supply side, Russia's output remained relatively stable (27% of the world PGM supply) in 2022, while South Africa's production (53%) was subject to poor logistics and local electricity crisis, which are stressful for domestic mining. This year, these problems might be getting deeper, given the current 4-6GW generation shortage (out of 48GW capacity)
❗️Although SA's authorities are taking steps to speed up energy projects and increase power capacity, the issues seem to have a long-lasting effect, in our view. In addition, Norilsk Nickel has also cut its production guidance for 2023 by 7% vs. the previous outlook: the palladium and platinum output might drop 11% and 4% YoY, respectively
#PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
⛏On the supply side, Russia's output remained relatively stable (27% of the world PGM supply) in 2022, while South Africa's production (53%) was subject to poor logistics and local electricity crisis, which are stressful for domestic mining. This year, these problems might be getting deeper, given the current 4-6GW generation shortage (out of 48GW capacity)
❗️Although SA's authorities are taking steps to speed up energy projects and increase power capacity, the issues seem to have a long-lasting effect, in our view. In addition, Norilsk Nickel has also cut its production guidance for 2023 by 7% vs. the previous outlook: the palladium and platinum output might drop 11% and 4% YoY, respectively
#PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
📌Cost support for PGMs is still far away; platinum price is more likely to decline
🛒On our numbers, major South African miners' costs grew >60% over the last 4 years, affected by grade depletion, higher labour and material costs. However, given the PGM price increase was also dramatic (spot prices of Pd were up 62%, while of Pt rose by 15%, compared to 2018), the average EBITDA margin remains at solid ~30% level
❗️Meanwhile, yet distant cost support is posing material downside risks for PGM prices (including a potential double-digit drop)
📝To sum up, platinum prices are likely to stay stressed in the near future, mostly due to weak demand and heavy surplus. As for palladium prices, they might remain at currently elevated levels in the medium term, supported by the market deficit, but with no strong growth triggers
#PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🛒On our numbers, major South African miners' costs grew >60% over the last 4 years, affected by grade depletion, higher labour and material costs. However, given the PGM price increase was also dramatic (spot prices of Pd were up 62%, while of Pt rose by 15%, compared to 2018), the average EBITDA margin remains at solid ~30% level
❗️Meanwhile, yet distant cost support is posing material downside risks for PGM prices (including a potential double-digit drop)
📝To sum up, platinum prices are likely to stay stressed in the near future, mostly due to weak demand and heavy surplus. As for palladium prices, they might remain at currently elevated levels in the medium term, supported by the market deficit, but with no strong growth triggers
#PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
What's the value behind PGM miners?
📉On the back of softening demand for PGMs, the segment's miners do not seem very attractive to us
💰However, at spot prices, pure-play PGM producers: Impala and Sylvania might be moderately appealing, trading at 2-3x 1-y fwd EV/EBITDA with a 9-13% FCF yield. Meanwhile, Amplats, compared to its peer group, seems expensive at 5x 1-y fwd EV/EBITDA, and modest 7% FCF-yield
💰At the same time, more diversified PGM-oriented miners (Sibanye and Norilsk Nickel) are also not very attractive at 4-5x 1-y fwd EV/EBITDA and the lowest 3-5% FCF-yields in the sector. However, the Russian producer is not subject to the ongoing supply-side disruptions in South Africa, that have been experienced throughout 2022 and may continue in the future
#PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
📉On the back of softening demand for PGMs, the segment's miners do not seem very attractive to us
💰However, at spot prices, pure-play PGM producers: Impala and Sylvania might be moderately appealing, trading at 2-3x 1-y fwd EV/EBITDA with a 9-13% FCF yield. Meanwhile, Amplats, compared to its peer group, seems expensive at 5x 1-y fwd EV/EBITDA, and modest 7% FCF-yield
💰At the same time, more diversified PGM-oriented miners (Sibanye and Norilsk Nickel) are also not very attractive at 4-5x 1-y fwd EV/EBITDA and the lowest 3-5% FCF-yields in the sector. However, the Russian producer is not subject to the ongoing supply-side disruptions in South Africa, that have been experienced throughout 2022 and may continue in the future
#PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM