Morning Bites (part 3)
🇨🇳China's Guangzhou city plans 1,722 new projects in 2023, worth more than CNY 6.5tn (USD 945bn), state media reports. As such, the manufacturing hub sees a development in infrastructure, new energy vehicles and biomedicine. Overall, the authorities' plans could well bolster medium-term demand for industrial and base metals somewhat. We note that Guangzhou is the fifth most populous city in China
#copper #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🇨🇳China's Guangzhou city plans 1,722 new projects in 2023, worth more than CNY 6.5tn (USD 945bn), state media reports. As such, the manufacturing hub sees a development in infrastructure, new energy vehicles and biomedicine. Overall, the authorities' plans could well bolster medium-term demand for industrial and base metals somewhat. We note that Guangzhou is the fifth most populous city in China
#copper #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
📌The combined copper production of Chile and Peru was up 0.5% YoY in November (vs. +4% YoY in October). Overall, the dynamics imply no material effect on prices, at least in the short term, although the combined copper output is close to its six-year lows
🇨🇱Chile’s copper production shrank 5% YoY in November (vs. +2% YoY in October). According to officials, these dynamics were partly triggered by lower ore grade and operational issues affecting major producers in the sector. In addition, some deposits have also been hit by reduced water availability, accidents and maintenance. Chile accounts for ~27% of global mined copper supply
🇵🇪Peru’s copper output was up 15% YoY in November, accelerating from the 8% YoY in October. Most of the gains were driven by higher production at Antamina, Cerro Verde and other local mines. Peru accounts for some 11% of global mined copper production
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
📌The combined copper production of Chile and Peru was up 0.5% YoY in November (vs. +4% YoY in October). Overall, the dynamics imply no material effect on prices, at least in the short term, although the combined copper output is close to its six-year lows
🇨🇱Chile’s copper production shrank 5% YoY in November (vs. +2% YoY in October). According to officials, these dynamics were partly triggered by lower ore grade and operational issues affecting major producers in the sector. In addition, some deposits have also been hit by reduced water availability, accidents and maintenance. Chile accounts for ~27% of global mined copper supply
🇵🇪Peru’s copper output was up 15% YoY in November, accelerating from the 8% YoY in October. Most of the gains were driven by higher production at Antamina, Cerro Verde and other local mines. Peru accounts for some 11% of global mined copper production
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 2)
🪨China is to resume Australian coal imports, with the first arrivals seen in late-February, Global Times reports, citing an industry insider. The decision is aimed at diversifying supply and stabilising Chinese import prices. The unofficial ban on coal trade with Australia, which was historically the second largest coal supplier to China (~30% of its imports), was imposed in 2020. However, in our view, this move is unlikely to have a material effect on the commodity's prices, as most of the previously banned volumes have likely already been redirected to other markets
#coal
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Coal
🪨China is to resume Australian coal imports, with the first arrivals seen in late-February, Global Times reports, citing an industry insider. The decision is aimed at diversifying supply and stabilising Chinese import prices. The unofficial ban on coal trade with Australia, which was historically the second largest coal supplier to China (~30% of its imports), was imposed in 2020. However, in our view, this move is unlikely to have a material effect on the commodity's prices, as most of the previously banned volumes have likely already been redirected to other markets
#coal
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Coal
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Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany grew 17% YoY in December from a low base, according to the preliminary data. However, this was 12% below the pre-COVID 2019 level. In both France and Italy, car sales were down 25% relative to 2019, while sales in Spain and UK were 30% and 14% lower, respectively. However, sales in Germany were up 11% vs. 2019. The five countries account for ~70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe, so EU + UK car sales likely grew YoY in December, although still below the pre-pandemic level. The full results for December sales are to be published on 18 January
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany grew 17% YoY in December from a low base, according to the preliminary data. However, this was 12% below the pre-COVID 2019 level. In both France and Italy, car sales were down 25% relative to 2019, while sales in Spain and UK were 30% and 14% lower, respectively. However, sales in Germany were up 11% vs. 2019. The five countries account for ~70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe, so EU + UK car sales likely grew YoY in December, although still below the pre-pandemic level. The full results for December sales are to be published on 18 January
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇮🇷Iran plans to boost copper cathode production 3.5 times to 1mnt in the next five years, according to its Minister of Industry, Mining and Trade, Reza Fatemi-Amin. Meanwhile, new explorations have started in several Iranian provinces, and the country is aiming to spend USD 15bn on the expansion plan. However, globally, large copper projects have recently been delayed by up to 30%. Hence, the timeline might be rather too upbeat, especially given the country's lack of execution experience. On our numbers, the new supply volumes, were they to materialise, would be equal to ~3% of world refined copper production in 2022F
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
🇮🇷Iran plans to boost copper cathode production 3.5 times to 1mnt in the next five years, according to its Minister of Industry, Mining and Trade, Reza Fatemi-Amin. Meanwhile, new explorations have started in several Iranian provinces, and the country is aiming to spend USD 15bn on the expansion plan. However, globally, large copper projects have recently been delayed by up to 30%. Hence, the timeline might be rather too upbeat, especially given the country's lack of execution experience. On our numbers, the new supply volumes, were they to materialise, would be equal to ~3% of world refined copper production in 2022F
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
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🗞Today China published preliminary import/export statistics for December. See preliminary data in the table above
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s finished steel net exports were up 17% YoY in December, decelerating from the 65% YoY increase in November. Meanwhile, China’s average daily steel production and inventories materially grew YoY in November-December. Hence, some additional steel volumes might have been exported because domestic demand had not completely recovered
🪨China’s coal imports were flat YoY in December (vs. -8% YoY in November). However, the figure represents a MoM decline of 4%. According to Reuters, the dynamics were generally affected by slowed industrial activity following a recent surge in local Covid-19 cases
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🔗China’s finished steel net exports were up 17% YoY in December, decelerating from the 65% YoY increase in November. Meanwhile, China’s average daily steel production and inventories materially grew YoY in November-December. Hence, some additional steel volumes might have been exported because domestic demand had not completely recovered
🪨China’s coal imports were flat YoY in December (vs. -8% YoY in November). However, the figure represents a MoM decline of 4%. According to Reuters, the dynamics were generally affected by slowed industrial activity following a recent surge in local Covid-19 cases
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏗China’s total excavator sales declined 30% YoY in December, which was substantially below preliminary estimates. This represented a reversal from the 16% YoY growth in November. Separately, domestic excavator sales, on our numbers, fell 60% YoY in December, after the slight 3% YoY growth the previous month. As a leading indicator of construction activity, consistently weak YoY domestic excavator sales support our view that there is likely to be no rapid recovery for the depressed Chinese real estate segment. This, in turn, is negative for industrial metals demand (particularly steel). Furthermore, we reiterate our view that the support measures announced by Beijing throughout 2022 are not enough to trigger a recovery in China's real estate sector
#global
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🏗China’s total excavator sales declined 30% YoY in December, which was substantially below preliminary estimates. This represented a reversal from the 16% YoY growth in November. Separately, domestic excavator sales, on our numbers, fell 60% YoY in December, after the slight 3% YoY growth the previous month. As a leading indicator of construction activity, consistently weak YoY domestic excavator sales support our view that there is likely to be no rapid recovery for the depressed Chinese real estate segment. This, in turn, is negative for industrial metals demand (particularly steel). Furthermore, we reiterate our view that the support measures announced by Beijing throughout 2022 are not enough to trigger a recovery in China's real estate sector
#global
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
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Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the 4Q22/2H22 reporting season begins, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among the major M&M names, Alcoa is to release its 4Q22 financial results on Wednesday 18 January. For the company, our 4Q22 EBITDA forecast is slightly below the consensus estimate
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
As the 4Q22/2H22 reporting season begins, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among the major M&M names, Alcoa is to release its 4Q22 financial results on Wednesday 18 January. For the company, our 4Q22 EBITDA forecast is slightly below the consensus estimate
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Morning Bites (part 1)
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales shrank again, and were down 23% YoY in December, after the 26% YoY decline in November. This figure is likely to reflect the increasing popularity of EVs in the region. China’s auto sector accounts for roughly 26% and 17% of global autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively. Hence, soft ICE car sales in China imply a negative read-across for future PGM demand, especially were the trend to persist
📌China’s new EV sales rose 52% YoY in December, after the 72% YoY growth in November. The continuing strong EV sales trend in China (since mid-2020) is supportive for the world demand for the battery metals basket (in particular for nickel, lithium and cobalt), as China accounted for ~60% of the global EV sales in November
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales shrank again, and were down 23% YoY in December, after the 26% YoY decline in November. This figure is likely to reflect the increasing popularity of EVs in the region. China’s auto sector accounts for roughly 26% and 17% of global autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively. Hence, soft ICE car sales in China imply a negative read-across for future PGM demand, especially were the trend to persist
📌China’s new EV sales rose 52% YoY in December, after the 72% YoY growth in November. The continuing strong EV sales trend in China (since mid-2020) is supportive for the world demand for the battery metals basket (in particular for nickel, lithium and cobalt), as China accounted for ~60% of the global EV sales in November
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇵🇪 Glencore’s Antapaccay mine in Peru was hit by vandals, a company official has reported. As a result, two mine vehicles and a water facility were burned in the attack. According to the local press, most of the 2,400 workers have been evacuated from the site, leaving just essential personnel required to maintain basic operations. On our numbers, Antapaccay’s production, which is now at risk, accounted for 0.8% of world mine copper output in 2021. Hence, the news might be supportive for the metal’s price
⛔️MMG’s Las Bambas has halted mining activities because of safety concerns, according to the mine's union leader. The decision was made following unrest at another nearby mining site. However, MMG's representative declined to comment. Overall, Las Bambas accounted for 1.4% of global copper mined supply in 2021, which is likely to add slight upbeat sentiment to the red metal's price
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
🇵🇪 Glencore’s Antapaccay mine in Peru was hit by vandals, a company official has reported. As a result, two mine vehicles and a water facility were burned in the attack. According to the local press, most of the 2,400 workers have been evacuated from the site, leaving just essential personnel required to maintain basic operations. On our numbers, Antapaccay’s production, which is now at risk, accounted for 0.8% of world mine copper output in 2021. Hence, the news might be supportive for the metal’s price
⛔️MMG’s Las Bambas has halted mining activities because of safety concerns, according to the mine's union leader. The decision was made following unrest at another nearby mining site. However, MMG's representative declined to comment. Overall, Las Bambas accounted for 1.4% of global copper mined supply in 2021, which is likely to add slight upbeat sentiment to the red metal's price
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
🗞Today China has published its industrial production data for December (see the table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 10% YoY in December, after the 8% YoY growth in November. The decline in annual terms was due to soft demand from the slowing economy and the weak real estate segment. In December 2022, apparent steel consumption was down 11% YoY, reversing from the 5% YoY increase in November. On our numbers, FY22 output was down 2.3% YoY. Hence, China reached its goal of flat or lower steel output in 2022 YoY
🏢China's property sales dropped 32% YoY in December (vs. -33% YoY in November). Floor space starts were down 44% YoY last month, decelerating from the 51% YoY decline in November. Similarly, personal mortgage loans were 29% lower YoY in December (vs. -42% in November). At the same time, property completions declined 7% YoY in December (vs. -20% YoY in November). Meanwhile, we have still not seen any substantial measures that could trigger a recovery in China's property sector in the near future
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 10% YoY in December, after the 8% YoY growth in November. The decline in annual terms was due to soft demand from the slowing economy and the weak real estate segment. In December 2022, apparent steel consumption was down 11% YoY, reversing from the 5% YoY increase in November. On our numbers, FY22 output was down 2.3% YoY. Hence, China reached its goal of flat or lower steel output in 2022 YoY
🏢China's property sales dropped 32% YoY in December (vs. -33% YoY in November). Floor space starts were down 44% YoY last month, decelerating from the 51% YoY decline in November. Similarly, personal mortgage loans were 29% lower YoY in December (vs. -42% in November). At the same time, property completions declined 7% YoY in December (vs. -20% YoY in November). Meanwhile, we have still not seen any substantial measures that could trigger a recovery in China's property sector in the near future
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production was up 0.5% to 1.93mnt in early January, from the last ten days of December. However, this was down 2.1% YoY, vs. the -8.4% YoY in the previous ten days. In turn, the steel stock grew 14.2% over the period (15.2% above the 2022 level, as of 10 January). Hence, we reiterate our view that the YoY inventories growth (since end-1Q22) might indicate soft demand for steel in China
💎De Beers cut the prices of larger rough diamonds by 10% at its 1st sales cycle in 2023, the company declined to comment. However, prices of small stones grew by the same percentage, while in-between sizes (0.75-2ct) also faced a modest drop. In our view, the difference in price dynamics might be due to inflationary pressure and economic slowdown, which adversely affected demand for the most expensive large stones. Overall, De Beers’ rough prices were up 3% YoY on its first sales cycle in 2023, on our numbers
#steel #diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production was up 0.5% to 1.93mnt in early January, from the last ten days of December. However, this was down 2.1% YoY, vs. the -8.4% YoY in the previous ten days. In turn, the steel stock grew 14.2% over the period (15.2% above the 2022 level, as of 10 January). Hence, we reiterate our view that the YoY inventories growth (since end-1Q22) might indicate soft demand for steel in China
💎De Beers cut the prices of larger rough diamonds by 10% at its 1st sales cycle in 2023, the company declined to comment. However, prices of small stones grew by the same percentage, while in-between sizes (0.75-2ct) also faced a modest drop. In our view, the difference in price dynamics might be due to inflationary pressure and economic slowdown, which adversely affected demand for the most expensive large stones. Overall, De Beers’ rough prices were up 3% YoY on its first sales cycle in 2023, on our numbers
#steel #diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 3)
💍China’s jewellery retailers reported YoY drops of 21-24% in LFL (same store) sales of gem-set jewellery in 4Q22. Chow Tai Fook reported a 24% YoY decline in LFL sales of gem-set, platinum and K-gold jewellery in 4Q22. Sales in Mainland China were down 32% YoY, while HK and Macau sales fell 3% YoY. Meanwhile, Luk Fook reported a 21% YoY decrease in LFL gem-set jewellery sales in 4Q22. In Mainland China, gem-set jewellery sales shrank 38% YoY, while in HK and Macau they slid 23% YoY. The decline in Mainland China’s sales was mostly caused by a local spike in Covid cases, while HK and Macau were also hit by the resurging pandemic on the Mainland. We note that weak jewellery sales in Asia is a negative factor for diamond demand, as China accounted for ~15% of global diamond jewellery retail sales in 2021
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍China’s jewellery retailers reported YoY drops of 21-24% in LFL (same store) sales of gem-set jewellery in 4Q22. Chow Tai Fook reported a 24% YoY decline in LFL sales of gem-set, platinum and K-gold jewellery in 4Q22. Sales in Mainland China were down 32% YoY, while HK and Macau sales fell 3% YoY. Meanwhile, Luk Fook reported a 21% YoY decrease in LFL gem-set jewellery sales in 4Q22. In Mainland China, gem-set jewellery sales shrank 38% YoY, while in HK and Macau they slid 23% YoY. The decline in Mainland China’s sales was mostly caused by a local spike in Covid cases, while HK and Macau were also hit by the resurging pandemic on the Mainland. We note that weak jewellery sales in Asia is a negative factor for diamond demand, as China accounted for ~15% of global diamond jewellery retail sales in 2021
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds