Dear Metals Wire subscribers,
Thank you for being with us in 2022. We hope your Christmas will be filled with warmth and generosity, and that the New Year will be especially prosperous
Rest assured that we will continue our work in 2023, sharing metals markets insights and our most interesting trading ideas
All the very best,
The Metals Wire Team
Thank you for being with us in 2022. We hope your Christmas will be filled with warmth and generosity, and that the New Year will be especially prosperous
Rest assured that we will continue our work in 2023, sharing metals markets insights and our most interesting trading ideas
All the very best,
The Metals Wire Team
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Morning Bites (part 1)
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs were down in December. However, the Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI grew, although at 47.8 (up from 47.1 in November, in line with the preliminary reading), it was still below 50.0. The US ISM manufacturing PMI declined to 48.4 (from 49.0 in November), its lowest level since May 2020 (the indication was slightly below the consensus estimate of 48.5)
🇨🇳China's official PMI dropped further to 47.0 (from 48.0 in November), which was below the market forecast of 48.0. Meanwhile, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0, from 49.4 a month ago, slightly outperforming the consensus estimate of 48.8
❗️The below-50 manufacturing PMIs in the US, Eurozone and China indicate a manufacturing sector contraction in these regions, which is an unfavourable factor for the demand for industrial metals, at least in the short term, following the global economic slowdown
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs were down in December. However, the Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI grew, although at 47.8 (up from 47.1 in November, in line with the preliminary reading), it was still below 50.0. The US ISM manufacturing PMI declined to 48.4 (from 49.0 in November), its lowest level since May 2020 (the indication was slightly below the consensus estimate of 48.5)
🇨🇳China's official PMI dropped further to 47.0 (from 48.0 in November), which was below the market forecast of 48.0. Meanwhile, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0, from 49.4 a month ago, slightly outperforming the consensus estimate of 48.8
❗️The below-50 manufacturing PMIs in the US, Eurozone and China indicate a manufacturing sector contraction in these regions, which is an unfavourable factor for the demand for industrial metals, at least in the short term, following the global economic slowdown
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel output was down 2.4% to 1.92mnt in late December, from the second ten days of the month. This represented an 8.4% YoY drop, vs. the +3.9% YoY in the previous ten days. In turn, steel inventories were down 18.4% over the period (15.6% above the 2021 level, as of 31 December). In our view, the continuous YoY stock build-up (since end-1Q22) might indicate softening demand for steel in China
🚘China's domestic car sales are expected to shrink 12.1% YoY to 2.46mn vehicles in December, according to the forecast from China's Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). The figure is roughly in line with our estimate, implying total car sales in the country at 26.75mn units for 2022 (up 1.7% YoY). To remind, CAAM also expects higher sales in 2023, which might add support to PGM demand: China’s auto sector accounts for ~26% and 17% of global autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#steel #cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel output was down 2.4% to 1.92mnt in late December, from the second ten days of the month. This represented an 8.4% YoY drop, vs. the +3.9% YoY in the previous ten days. In turn, steel inventories were down 18.4% over the period (15.6% above the 2021 level, as of 31 December). In our view, the continuous YoY stock build-up (since end-1Q22) might indicate softening demand for steel in China
🚘China's domestic car sales are expected to shrink 12.1% YoY to 2.46mn vehicles in December, according to the forecast from China's Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). The figure is roughly in line with our estimate, implying total car sales in the country at 26.75mn units for 2022 (up 1.7% YoY). To remind, CAAM also expects higher sales in 2023, which might add support to PGM demand: China’s auto sector accounts for ~26% and 17% of global autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#steel #cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 3)
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales dropped 8% YoY in November, reversing from the 14% YoY growth in October, when the government released retail vouchers. According to a local authorities representative, tightening financial conditions are likely to keep weighing on domestic consumption, while the easing of COVID measures and improved conditions on the labour market might support future sales results
💎US jewellery sales declined 4% YoY in November, accelerating after the 2% YoY fall in October. The results were in line with the preliminary figure. Hence, we reiterate our view that the slowdown in US jewellery sales, were it to persist, would be unfavourable for the short-term demand for rough diamonds. We note that the US accounted for ~50% of global diamond jewellery retail sales in 2021
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales dropped 8% YoY in November, reversing from the 14% YoY growth in October, when the government released retail vouchers. According to a local authorities representative, tightening financial conditions are likely to keep weighing on domestic consumption, while the easing of COVID measures and improved conditions on the labour market might support future sales results
💎US jewellery sales declined 4% YoY in November, accelerating after the 2% YoY fall in October. The results were in line with the preliminary figure. Hence, we reiterate our view that the slowdown in US jewellery sales, were it to persist, would be unfavourable for the short-term demand for rough diamonds. We note that the US accounted for ~50% of global diamond jewellery retail sales in 2021
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 4)
☢️The US has launched its USD 75mn programme to secure the domestic nuclear industry, and reduce supplies from Russia. The country's Department of Energy has signed contracts to purchase 800klb of U3O8 from five local mines (at 36% above spot prices). Of note, the US government's plan accounts for 1.7% of total US nuclear plant purchases of U308 and ~0.5% of world production in 2021. However, the effect on demand is likely to have been mostly priced-in, as the USD 75mn uranium reserve was established in 2020
#uranium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Uranium
☢️The US has launched its USD 75mn programme to secure the domestic nuclear industry, and reduce supplies from Russia. The country's Department of Energy has signed contracts to purchase 800klb of U3O8 from five local mines (at 36% above spot prices). Of note, the US government's plan accounts for 1.7% of total US nuclear plant purchases of U308 and ~0.5% of world production in 2021. However, the effect on demand is likely to have been mostly priced-in, as the USD 75mn uranium reserve was established in 2020
#uranium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Uranium
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏦Global central banks were net purchasers of 50t of gold in November (vs. 34t in October), the World Gold Council reports. The biggest buyer was China, with 32t (the first increase in reserves since end-3Q19), while Turkey purchased 19t (vs. 9t in October). Meanwhile, central banks sold only 5t of gold in November. The further build-up of gold reserves by institutions implies a positive read-across for the commodity prices, if it persists in the coming months
🇨🇳In December, China's central bank raised its gold holdings a further 30t to a total of 2,010t, after 32t growth in November. The increase, on our numbers, was the equivalent of 8% of the global monthly physical gold demand in 2022. Meanwhile, the two recent gold purchase cycles of the People’s Bank of China (in 2015-16 and 2019) lasted from several months to almost a year. Hence, we reiterate our view that more purchases might be reported in 2023, driving growth in gold prices
#gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🏦Global central banks were net purchasers of 50t of gold in November (vs. 34t in October), the World Gold Council reports. The biggest buyer was China, with 32t (the first increase in reserves since end-3Q19), while Turkey purchased 19t (vs. 9t in October). Meanwhile, central banks sold only 5t of gold in November. The further build-up of gold reserves by institutions implies a positive read-across for the commodity prices, if it persists in the coming months
🇨🇳In December, China's central bank raised its gold holdings a further 30t to a total of 2,010t, after 32t growth in November. The increase, on our numbers, was the equivalent of 8% of the global monthly physical gold demand in 2022. Meanwhile, the two recent gold purchase cycles of the People’s Bank of China (in 2015-16 and 2019) lasted from several months to almost a year. Hence, we reiterate our view that more purchases might be reported in 2023, driving growth in gold prices
#gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
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Morning Bites (part 2)
📉Gold-backed ETFs reduced their holdings a slight 4t through December (after outflows of 26t in November and 59t in October). As a result, the FY22 net outflow reached 110t. According to the World Gold Council, last month, North American funds reported their first month of positive demand (9t) since April, while EU funds saw dynamics of -14t. Overall, Asian funds registered a small increase in holdings of 0.8t, while funds in other regions were down 0.2t. In our view, ETF sales were generally the main factor pressuring gold prices, and as funds become less downbeat, it might be a supportive factor for our bullish gold case
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Gold
📉Gold-backed ETFs reduced their holdings a slight 4t through December (after outflows of 26t in November and 59t in October). As a result, the FY22 net outflow reached 110t. According to the World Gold Council, last month, North American funds reported their first month of positive demand (9t) since April, while EU funds saw dynamics of -14t. Overall, Asian funds registered a small increase in holdings of 0.8t, while funds in other regions were down 0.2t. In our view, ETF sales were generally the main factor pressuring gold prices, and as funds become less downbeat, it might be a supportive factor for our bullish gold case
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 3)
🇨🇳China's Guangzhou city plans 1,722 new projects in 2023, worth more than CNY 6.5tn (USD 945bn), state media reports. As such, the manufacturing hub sees a development in infrastructure, new energy vehicles and biomedicine. Overall, the authorities' plans could well bolster medium-term demand for industrial and base metals somewhat. We note that Guangzhou is the fifth most populous city in China
#copper #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🇨🇳China's Guangzhou city plans 1,722 new projects in 2023, worth more than CNY 6.5tn (USD 945bn), state media reports. As such, the manufacturing hub sees a development in infrastructure, new energy vehicles and biomedicine. Overall, the authorities' plans could well bolster medium-term demand for industrial and base metals somewhat. We note that Guangzhou is the fifth most populous city in China
#copper #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
📌The combined copper production of Chile and Peru was up 0.5% YoY in November (vs. +4% YoY in October). Overall, the dynamics imply no material effect on prices, at least in the short term, although the combined copper output is close to its six-year lows
🇨🇱Chile’s copper production shrank 5% YoY in November (vs. +2% YoY in October). According to officials, these dynamics were partly triggered by lower ore grade and operational issues affecting major producers in the sector. In addition, some deposits have also been hit by reduced water availability, accidents and maintenance. Chile accounts for ~27% of global mined copper supply
🇵🇪Peru’s copper output was up 15% YoY in November, accelerating from the 8% YoY in October. Most of the gains were driven by higher production at Antamina, Cerro Verde and other local mines. Peru accounts for some 11% of global mined copper production
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
📌The combined copper production of Chile and Peru was up 0.5% YoY in November (vs. +4% YoY in October). Overall, the dynamics imply no material effect on prices, at least in the short term, although the combined copper output is close to its six-year lows
🇨🇱Chile’s copper production shrank 5% YoY in November (vs. +2% YoY in October). According to officials, these dynamics were partly triggered by lower ore grade and operational issues affecting major producers in the sector. In addition, some deposits have also been hit by reduced water availability, accidents and maintenance. Chile accounts for ~27% of global mined copper supply
🇵🇪Peru’s copper output was up 15% YoY in November, accelerating from the 8% YoY in October. Most of the gains were driven by higher production at Antamina, Cerro Verde and other local mines. Peru accounts for some 11% of global mined copper production
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 2)
🪨China is to resume Australian coal imports, with the first arrivals seen in late-February, Global Times reports, citing an industry insider. The decision is aimed at diversifying supply and stabilising Chinese import prices. The unofficial ban on coal trade with Australia, which was historically the second largest coal supplier to China (~30% of its imports), was imposed in 2020. However, in our view, this move is unlikely to have a material effect on the commodity's prices, as most of the previously banned volumes have likely already been redirected to other markets
#coal
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Coal
🪨China is to resume Australian coal imports, with the first arrivals seen in late-February, Global Times reports, citing an industry insider. The decision is aimed at diversifying supply and stabilising Chinese import prices. The unofficial ban on coal trade with Australia, which was historically the second largest coal supplier to China (~30% of its imports), was imposed in 2020. However, in our view, this move is unlikely to have a material effect on the commodity's prices, as most of the previously banned volumes have likely already been redirected to other markets
#coal
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Coal
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Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany grew 17% YoY in December from a low base, according to the preliminary data. However, this was 12% below the pre-COVID 2019 level. In both France and Italy, car sales were down 25% relative to 2019, while sales in Spain and UK were 30% and 14% lower, respectively. However, sales in Germany were up 11% vs. 2019. The five countries account for ~70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe, so EU + UK car sales likely grew YoY in December, although still below the pre-pandemic level. The full results for December sales are to be published on 18 January
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany grew 17% YoY in December from a low base, according to the preliminary data. However, this was 12% below the pre-COVID 2019 level. In both France and Italy, car sales were down 25% relative to 2019, while sales in Spain and UK were 30% and 14% lower, respectively. However, sales in Germany were up 11% vs. 2019. The five countries account for ~70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe, so EU + UK car sales likely grew YoY in December, although still below the pre-pandemic level. The full results for December sales are to be published on 18 January
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇮🇷Iran plans to boost copper cathode production 3.5 times to 1mnt in the next five years, according to its Minister of Industry, Mining and Trade, Reza Fatemi-Amin. Meanwhile, new explorations have started in several Iranian provinces, and the country is aiming to spend USD 15bn on the expansion plan. However, globally, large copper projects have recently been delayed by up to 30%. Hence, the timeline might be rather too upbeat, especially given the country's lack of execution experience. On our numbers, the new supply volumes, were they to materialise, would be equal to ~3% of world refined copper production in 2022F
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
🇮🇷Iran plans to boost copper cathode production 3.5 times to 1mnt in the next five years, according to its Minister of Industry, Mining and Trade, Reza Fatemi-Amin. Meanwhile, new explorations have started in several Iranian provinces, and the country is aiming to spend USD 15bn on the expansion plan. However, globally, large copper projects have recently been delayed by up to 30%. Hence, the timeline might be rather too upbeat, especially given the country's lack of execution experience. On our numbers, the new supply volumes, were they to materialise, would be equal to ~3% of world refined copper production in 2022F
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
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🗞Today China published preliminary import/export statistics for December. See preliminary data in the table above
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s finished steel net exports were up 17% YoY in December, decelerating from the 65% YoY increase in November. Meanwhile, China’s average daily steel production and inventories materially grew YoY in November-December. Hence, some additional steel volumes might have been exported because domestic demand had not completely recovered
🪨China’s coal imports were flat YoY in December (vs. -8% YoY in November). However, the figure represents a MoM decline of 4%. According to Reuters, the dynamics were generally affected by slowed industrial activity following a recent surge in local Covid-19 cases
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🔗China’s finished steel net exports were up 17% YoY in December, decelerating from the 65% YoY increase in November. Meanwhile, China’s average daily steel production and inventories materially grew YoY in November-December. Hence, some additional steel volumes might have been exported because domestic demand had not completely recovered
🪨China’s coal imports were flat YoY in December (vs. -8% YoY in November). However, the figure represents a MoM decline of 4%. According to Reuters, the dynamics were generally affected by slowed industrial activity following a recent surge in local Covid-19 cases
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏗China’s total excavator sales declined 30% YoY in December, which was substantially below preliminary estimates. This represented a reversal from the 16% YoY growth in November. Separately, domestic excavator sales, on our numbers, fell 60% YoY in December, after the slight 3% YoY growth the previous month. As a leading indicator of construction activity, consistently weak YoY domestic excavator sales support our view that there is likely to be no rapid recovery for the depressed Chinese real estate segment. This, in turn, is negative for industrial metals demand (particularly steel). Furthermore, we reiterate our view that the support measures announced by Beijing throughout 2022 are not enough to trigger a recovery in China's real estate sector
#global
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🏗China’s total excavator sales declined 30% YoY in December, which was substantially below preliminary estimates. This represented a reversal from the 16% YoY growth in November. Separately, domestic excavator sales, on our numbers, fell 60% YoY in December, after the slight 3% YoY growth the previous month. As a leading indicator of construction activity, consistently weak YoY domestic excavator sales support our view that there is likely to be no rapid recovery for the depressed Chinese real estate segment. This, in turn, is negative for industrial metals demand (particularly steel). Furthermore, we reiterate our view that the support measures announced by Beijing throughout 2022 are not enough to trigger a recovery in China's real estate sector
#global
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
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