Morning bites (part 2)

🚘CAAM has cut its FY22 China domestic car sales outlook by 2.5% to 26.8 mn vehicles, amid the economic downturn, COVID and declining demand from end-users. However, the figure would be still up ~2.0% YoY, which is slightly below our estimates, and implies a decrease of some 10% YoY in December (vs. the 8% YoY decline in November). The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) expects car sales to reach 27.6 mn units in 2023 (+3.0% YoY), but states that the industry needs stimulus measures – some of which expire this year. In our view, 2022 sales are likely to have already been priced-in by the market, given the proximity of the year end. At the same time, potentially higher sales in 2023 imply some support for PGMs prices, as China’s auto sector accounts for ~26% and 17% of global autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively

#cars #EV #PGMs
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Morning Bites (part 3)

🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations were up 17% YoY in November, accelerating from the 14% YoY gain in October and marking the third consecutive month of growth in 2022. Of note, the results were close to our estimate of 20% YoY growth for the month. However, sales are still 17% below the pre-COVID 2019 level (vs. -25% in October): despite supply chain issues easing of late, the November increase was mainly due to the low base effect. Overall, we reiterate our negative outlook on EU car sales, amid the deteriorating macroeconomic conditions globally and ongoing local energy crisis. Hence, in our view, historically soft EU car sales are likely to weigh on PGM demand from the auto industry

#cars
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Morning Bites (Part 1)

💎India’s rough diamond net imports increased 34% YoY in November, having rebounded from the 32% YoY decline in October. Meanwhile, India’s polished diamond net exports were down 12% YoY in November, decelerating from -26% YoY in October. According to GJEPC chairman, Vipul Shah, there are hopes for better trading results amid the recent easing of China's COVID restrictions and the upcoming Chinese New Year. In our view, the diamonds sector is likely to stay under stress in the near future, following the global economic downturn and weak US jewellery sales (which accounted for ~50% of global diamond jewellery retail sales in 2021)

At the same time, India’s lab-grown rough diamond net imports decreased 9% YoY in November (vs. -49% YoY in October). The share of lab-grown net rough imports in natural diamond imports was slightly up to 6% in November, from 5% in October

#diamonds
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Morning Bites (Part 2)

⛏Canada's First Quantum was ordered to halt operations at its copper Cobre Panama mine, after missing a midnight deadline to finilise a deal with the government. The company had to sign an agreement reached in January to pay USD 375mn per annum to the local authorities from the mine. Cobre Panama produced 331kt of copper last year, or ~1.5% of global copper supply in 2021. We therefore believe the news is supportive for the red metal's price, though the timing of the operational stoppage has not yet been defined

#copper
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Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗CISA mills daily crude steel output was down 2.1% to 1.99mnt in early-December from the last ten days of November. The number represented a 2.7% YoY increase, decelerating from +18.2% YoY in the previous ten days. In turn, steel inventories declined 0.3% over the period (15.0% above the 2021 level, as of 10 December). Overall, the YoY stock build-up (since end-1Q22) might indicate stagnating domestic demand for steel

🇵🇪Peru's protests have triggered transport delays at copper mines. According to Freeport-McMoRan, staff and supplies movement at Cerro Verde (~2% of global copper output in 2021) and other mines were disrupted. In addition, the Las Bambas mine recently reported transportation issues amid protests. However, Glencore's Antamina mine in north-central Peru is running normally. In our view, further disruptions at local mines are likely to support the copper price, as Peru accounts for some 11% of world mined supply

#steel #copper
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Morning Bites (part 2)

📈Severstal has increased its January rebar prices for traders by some 2.4% to RUB 35.8k/t (USD 552/t) ex-VAT CPT Moscow. According to Metal Expert, the decision could have been made on the back of reduced market inventories, as well as some growth in steel scrap prices and more expensive railway transportation

• The rebar-billet discount is currently at USD 24/t (vs. the historical premium of USD 20/t). On our numbers, following the price increase, the discount might shorten to USD -11/t

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel

📉Palladium spot prices dropped 12% WoW and 17% MoM to USD 1,714/oz. The decrease might have been triggered by weak car sales: last week, the guidance for FY22 China car sales (~26% of global autocatalyst Pd demand) was cut by 2.5% to 26.8mn vehicles, which implies a 10% YoY drop in Dec sales (vs. -8% YoY in Nov). We see a second likely reason as being seasonal pre-NY inventories release by autocatalyst producers, which the market also experienced a year ago

• We expect the surplus on the Pd market in 2021 to turn into deficit in 2022F and beyond, mostly due to the subdued recycling rates: most Pd-rich autocatalysts were recycled through 2020-21. Supply problems might continue into 2023, as the electricity supply problem’s of SA’s Eskom appear to be getting deeper, with 6GW out of 42GW capacity out of order at the moment. Pd stocks remain low, while the marginal cost of SA miners was up >70% since 1H18 due to the grade depletion. Hence, we expect palladium prices to remain elevated in the medium term

#PGMs

📌How do PGM producers look at spot?

💰SBSW is an attractive name through which to gain exposure to PGMs, as it trades at 1.9x 1-y fwd EV/EBITDA, which is significantly below its peers (IMP-2.6x, AMS -4.7x). Moreover, the company generates a solid 21% FCF-yield.

💰Meanwhile, Norilsk Nickel seems expensive at 4.8x EV/EBITDA – the highest indication among its peers. At the same time, at spot, the Russian miner offers only a 10% FCF-yield (IMP-15%, SBSW-21%)

#PGMs

Morning Bites (part 1)

💎India's midstream diamond manufacturers have reported a business slump in Surat, amid unfavourable geopolitical conditions that are affecting demand from the US and Europe, and a recent spike in China's Covid cases. According to Bhavesh Tank, a vice-president of the Diamond Workers' Union, many of India's employees in cut-and-polish segment have suffered a 20% wage cut, while ~100,000 workers have lost their jobs. The vice-president also mentioned a large diamond unit's head in Surat, whose business is down 40% in terms of volume. In our view, the slowdown in Surat manufacturing (~90% of global polished diamonds output), is a moderately negative factor for rough stones demand and prices in the short term. Overall, the news might reflect the recent YoY decrease in India's polished diamonds net exports, supporting our view that the sector is likely to stay under stress in the near future

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds

Morning Bites (part 2)

🔗Russia's slab prices have surged 9.2% over three weeks to USD 495/t FOB Black Sea, according to Metal Expert. The dynamics were likely supported by a revival in Chinese demand – China's FOB export HRC prices surged 8.1% over the period to USD 598/t, while Taiwan's CFR import slab prices were up 7.5% to USD 530/t

∙ However, we do not expect the steel market to recover to 2021 levels in 2023. According to leading indicators of China’s construction activity – the major driver of steel demand – domestic excavator sales have remained subdued through 2022, signalling an absence of recovery in the sector. In addition, weak Chinese aggregate system financing (-43% YoY in Oct 2022) is negatively affecting local construction activity

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel

🪨 The thermal coal price on the Richard's Bay global benchmark has dipped 15% WoW to USD 213/t, likely due to the commitment of South Africa’s state-owned freight utility to stabilise rail and port system throughput after the recent accidents and reported underperformance. Of note, Australia's FOB Newcastle thermal coal prices declined only 1% WoW to USD 390/t amid a smaller vessel queue outside the port, implying still high demand for coal globally. Despite the price correction, Richard's Bay and Newcastle offers were still up 9% and 13%, respectively, in three last weeks

• In our view, the thermal coal prices are likely to remain elevated in 2023F due to the increased demand. However, we expect some price normalisation beyond next year, with Newcastle FOB thermal coal prices lowering to USD 150/t and USD 100/t in 2024-25F, respectively

#coal

📌Who benefits the most from elevated thermal coal prices?

⛏We would like to draw attention to three global coal miners: Peabody (BTU US), Thungela (TGA LN) and Glencore (GLEN LN)

💰On our numbers, at spot, TGA and BTU are the most attractive names amid elevated thermal coal prices globally. Currently, TGA trades at only 0.1x 1-y fwd EV/EBITDA and generates a 92% FCF yield, while BTU trades at 0.6x EV/EBITDA with a 51% FCF yield. Glencore is more expensive, though still looks attractive, trading at 2.3x EV/EBITDA with a 30% FCF yield

💰Warrior Met Coal (HCC US) and Mongolian Mining Corp. (MMC; 975 HK) have pure exposure to coking coal, which is now cheaper than thermal. However, easing Covid restrictions in China and a revival of steelmaking activity might be supportive for MMC's financials, as China is the main export destination for MMC’s shipments

#coal

Morning Bites

⛏Norilsk Nickel has notified customers about plans to cut Ni production by 10% in 2023, Bloomberg reports. The decision is being considered against the background of the 109kt and 110kt nickel market surplus the company expects for 2022 and 2023, respectively, and the refusal of some EU importers to buy Russian-origin metal. On our numbers, the production cut would result in ~190kt of Ni output for the company in 2023 – in-line with the 2021 level and 15% below the miner’s previous guidance for 2023 (the difference equals ~3% of global high-grade Ni supply in 2021). Of note, most of the market surplus in 2022-23 is to be low-grade supplies, while Norilsk Nickel produces Class-1 nickel. Hence, the 10% production cut, if implemented, might result in a ~5kt deficit of high-grade Ni in 2023 (vs. the 16kt surplus previously expected by Norilsk Nickel). The latter would be moderately supportive for global nickel prices

#nickel
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Morning Bites (part 1)

💎De Beers has reported sales of USD 410mn at its 10th cycle in 2022. This was 13% below the historical average, but 22% higher YoY amid the low base effect (vs. +4% YoY at the 9th cycle in 2022). Overall, total rough diamond sales were up 20% YoY in FY22. According to De Beers CEO Bruce Cleaver, the cycle’s sightholders were prudent ahead of restocking after the winter holidays and the expected easing of Covid-19 restrictions in China. Hence, weaker December sales vs. previous years support our view that the diamond demand is likely to stay affected by unfavourable global macroeconomic conditions, at least in the short term

#diamonds
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Morning Bites (part 2)

☢️Finland's Terrafame is to start mining uranium at its Sotkamo mine by mid-2024, as a by-product. The company aims to produce 200t of uranium per annum by 2026, which is to be transported abroad for processing. On our numbers, the new capacity accounts for less than 0.5% of global uranium output in 2021, and so the effect on the metal's prices is likely to be negligable

📝Indonesia is to push ahead with its plan to ban bauxite exports in mid-2023, the country's President, Joko Widodo, has said. Exports of bleached bauxite are also to be prohibited. The country contends that the measure will encourage local processing of the key raw material used in the production of aluminium. The news is likely to have been already priced-in by the market, as the export ban was announced in 2021. Indonesia accounted for ~4.5% of global bauxite mine production in 2021, making it one of the world’s six largest producers of the raw material

#uranium #aluminium
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Morning Bites

🔗Global crude steel output was down 2.9% YoY to 139mnt in November, reversing from the 1% YoY growth in October, according to the World Steel Association. Meanwhile, the 8% YoY increase in steel output from China, which accounted for 54% of global steel production in November (also 54% in October), was overall driven by the low base effect from COVID restrictions in 2021. The drop in ex-China steel output accelerated further to 13% YoY, from -9% YoY the previous month. Steel output in the EU fell further by 20% YoY (vs. -16% YoY in October), on the back of local energy crisis and, hence, restrained demand, while US steel production plunged 11% YoY (vs. -10% YoY in October). Of note, the decline in Russia’s steel output accelerated to 14% YoY in November, from -5% YoY in October, according to the WSA

📉We maintain our negative outlook on world steel output, amid unfavourable macroeconomic conditions globally

#steel
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Morning Bites

📈NLMK has slightly increased its domestic rebar prices for January by 1.2% to RUB 35.4k/t (USD 504/t) ex-VAT CPT Moscow. The new level is 1.1% lower than the recent Severstal's offer. However, according to Metal Expert, NLMK's offer might be revised by the end of December. Of note, the price growth is associated with more expensive railway transportation tariffs in January, lower capacity utilisation and rouble depreciation

• The rebar-billet discount is currently at USD 86/t (vs. the historical premium of USD 20/t). On our numbers, following the price increase, the discount might shorten to USD 80/t

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel

Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗CISA mills daily crude steel output was down 1.2% to 1.96mnt in mid-December from the first ten days of the month. This represented a 3.9% YoY increase, vs. +2.7% YoY in the previous ten days. In turn, steel inventories were up 4.2% over the period (17.8% above the 2021 level, as of 20 December). Overall, the substantial YoY inventories build-up (since end-1Q22) might indicate rather stagnating demand for steel in China

🇨🇳China is to drop the quarantine requirement for inbound travellers from January 8, Reuters reports, citing the country's National Health Commission. Local management of Covid-19 is also to be downgraded to Category B from the current top-level. In our view, the news is likely to support demand for most industrial commodities. For example, China accounted for ~52% of global apparent steel use in 2021. However, the effect on sentiment might be limited, amid concerns about soaring new Covid cases in China

#steel #global
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Morning Bites (part 2)

💍US preliminary jewellery sales are down 7% YoY in December, after the 4% YoY fall estimated for November, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse. Of note, the official results for November-December 2022 are to be published in early January-February 2023, respectively. Meanwhile, during the last two months of the year, consumers and retailers displayed resilience amid increasing economic pressures. Hence, we reiterate our view that the weakness in US jewellery sales, were it to materialise, is a negative factor for rough diamond demand, especially amid the recent news about business issues in India's Surat – the world's largest diamond cut-and-polish hub. We remind our readers that the US accounted for ~50% of global diamond jewellery retail sales in 2021

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds