Metals Wire
665 subscribers
2.39K photos
1 video
1.71K links
Global Metals&Mining Research from Glush&Team. No investment advice, just numbers & charts!
Download Telegram
Morning Bites (part 4)

🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 20% YoY in November from a low base, according to the preliminary data. However, this was 16% below the pre-COVID 2019 level. In France and Germany, car sales decreased 22% and 13% relative to 2019, respectively, while sales in Italy and Spain dropped 20% and 21%, respectively. UK sales contracted 9% relative to 2019. We note that these five countries account for ~70% of total new vehicle registrations in Europe, so EU + UK car sales were likely up YoY, but still below the pre-pandemic level. The full results for November sales are to be published on 15 December

#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 1)

🇨🇳 In November, China's central bank resumed gold purchases for the first time in three years, buying 32t (1mnoz) to bring its total holding to 1,980t. The increase, on our numbers, was the equivalent of 8.5% of the global monthly physical gold demand in 2022. We note that in the last few years, the People’s Bank of China has entered the gold market twice – in 2015-16 and 2019 – and both purchase cycles lasted several months. In our view, further purchases in coming months might materially improve gold demand, supporting the price

#gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)

🇵🇪Peru’s copper output was up 8% YoY in October, decelerating from the 13.5% YoY in September. Meanwhile, most of the gains were driven by the Las Bambas, Cerro Verde and Southern Peru Copper mines. We note that production was the highest in more than six years and that rising copper output might weigh slightly on the metal's price, as Peru accounts for some 11% of global mine copper supply

Vale sees its iron ore production is to remain flat YoY in 2023 at 310-320mnt, which is roughly in line with the 310mnt expected for 2022 (the lower bound of the previous guidance) and 316mnt mined in 2021. The miner also sees the figure for 2026 at 340-360mnt. According to Reuters, the outlook reflects other global miners like Rio Tinto amid concerns about soft iron ore prices. Per our estimate, Vale accounts for ~24% of the global iron ore seaborne sales in 2021, and flat YoY output is overall neutral for the iron ore price in medium term

#copper #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 3)

📉Gold-backed ETFs reduced their holdings a further 26t through November (after outflows of 59t in October and 102t in September). The YTD net outflow had reached 106t at the end of November. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), top US ETFs again reported the biggest losses during last month, likely amid the sixth consecutive interest rate increase by the US Fed. Despite net ETF outflows, the price of gold was up 7% YoY in November due to falling yields and the overall softer USD. Moreover, gold might have been supported by PBoC, which started to build up gold reserves in November. We note that global physical demand for gold remains strong and generally the only factor pressuring gold prices is ETF sales

#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Gold
👍1
Morning Bites (part 1)

🏗China’s domestic excavator sales grew 3% YoY in November, roughly in line with the preliminary estimates. Thus, the monthly figure saw a slight rebound after more than a year of YoY declines (-10% YoY in October). Meanwhile, total excavator sales (domestic + export) surged 16% YoY in November, accelerating from the 8% YoY increase in October. As a leading indicator of construction activity, the minor YoY increase in domestic excavator sales is not yet enough to call a recovery in China’s property sector, although the figure might look like stabilisation. The latter would, overall, be adverse for the local demand for industrial metals (particularly for steel). In addition, we reiterate our view that, year-to-date, the announced stimulus measures are not enough for a recovery in China's real estate sector

#global
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)

💍Signet reports a further 7.6% YoY decline in same-store sales in 3Q22 (August-October). Same-store sales in North America were down 7.6% YoY, while sales in the international segment fell 6.7% YoY. Meanwhile, Signet continues to anticipate some shift of consumer discretionary spending away from the jewellery category. The dynamics might reflect the recent stagnation in US jewellery sales, as well as unfavourable macroeconomic conditions, which could somewhat weigh on global demand for rough diamonds (the US accounted for ~50% of global diamond jewellery retail sales in 2021)

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)

📝AngloAmerican has announced revised guidance for 2023-25, with less upbeat prospects, mostly subject to the extent of COVID-related issues

• Diamonds output: unchanged at 30-33mnct in 2023, but lowered 1mnct to 29-32mnct for 2024, amid the slower ramp-up of the Venetia mine. The company expects an increase up to 32-35mnct in 2025 due to higher grades

• Copper production: now seen at 840-930kt in 2023 (-80kt from previous estimates) and 910-1,000kt in 2024 (-10kt) following ore hardness and lower grades. For 2025, the figure is 840-930kt. However, the ramp-up of the open pit Quellaveco mine is progressing well, with both lines seen at full capacity in mid-2023

• PGMs: 3.6-4.0mnoz is to be produced in 2023 and 2024 (-0.5mnoz for both years) due to lower grades and some infrastructure closures. Furthermore, 2025 output is seen at 3.5-3.9mnoz

#diamonds #copper #PGMs
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)

💍US preliminary jewellery sales dropped further, being down 4% YoY in November, after the 2% YoY fall in October, as consumers preferred more travelling and eating out. In addition, ex-jewellery luxury sales were also down 3.1% YoY last month. We reiterate our view that the slowdown in US jewellery sales, were it to persist, would be an unfavourable factor for short-term demand for rough diamonds

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites

📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales dropped further, and were down 26% YoY in November, after the 8% YoY decline in October. The figure is likely to reflect the growing interest for EVs in the region. China’s auto sector accounts for roughly 26% and 17% of global autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively. We reiterate our view that such dynamics imply a negative read-across for future PGM consumption, especially if the trend persists

📌China’s new EV sales soared 72% YoY in November, although that was a slight deceleration from the 82% YoY growth in October. The continuation of the strong EV sales trend in China (there have been hefty YoY increases since mid-2020) is a positive factor for the global demand for the battery metals basket (such as nickel, lithium and cobalt), with China accounting for ~60% of the world's EV sales in October

#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)

🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output declined 33% YoY in October after the 3% revised YoY drop in September. Meanwhile, the country’s gold production shrank 6% YoY, decelerating from -13% YoY in September. Overall, local issues with electricity, supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures affected the dynamics. Meanwhile, the country accounts for ~70% and 38% of global platinum and palladium supply, respectively, as well as for 3% of gold production. In our view, the disruptions are likely to be supportive for PGMs and gold prices, at least in the short term

🔋Sayona has received a permit to resume lithium mining in Canada, and plans to restart operations in 1Q23. Of note, NAL operations were stopped in 2019 amid a decline in lithium product prices. On our numbers, the unit's annual capacity of 30kt LCE accounts for ~4% of world lithium supply in 2022F, which is in-line with the growing appetite for EVs globally

#PGMs #gold #diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)

🔗Severstal has lowered its domestic HRC prices for January by 1.8% to RUB 45.8k/t (USD 725/t) ex-VAT CPT Moscow – in-line with NLMK’s December offer, which was flat MoM in January

• The HRC domestic premium is currently at USD 196/t (vs. the historical average of USD 38/t), Hence, given the price decrease, the domestic HRC premium might shorten to USD 183/t

💎Petra Diamonds’ LFL rough prices saw 2.2% growth at its December tender, vs. October-November auction. Meanwhile, the YTD prices were also up 12.7% YoY. However, according to Petra's CEO, it is still too early to claim that rough diamond prices have bottomed out. Of note, China’s lockdowns have triggered weak demand for larger stones (0.75ct+), as many of those roughs would normally be cut for mainland customers. Despite some minor positivity in Petra's results, we reiterate our view that unfavourable economic conditions mean there are risks to global diamond demand

#steel #diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🗞Today China has published its industrial production data for November (see the table above)

#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗China’s crude steel output rose 8% YoY in November, decelerating from the 11% YoY growth in October. Overall, the increase in annual terms was due to the low base effect. In November 2022, apparent steel consumption was up 5% YoY, decelerating from the 10% YoY increase in October. On our numbers, 11mo22 production was down 1.6% YoY. Hence, China is on track to reach its goal of flat or lower steel output in 2022 YoY

🏢China's property sales dropped 33% YoY in November (vs. -23% YoY in October). Floor space starts were down 51% YoY in November, after the 35% YoY decline in October. Similarly, personal mortgage loans were 42% lower YoY in November (vs. -31% in October). At the same time, property completions declined 20% YoY in November (vs. -9% YoY in October). We reiterate our view that there are still no substantial measures that are likely to trigger recovery in the Chinese real estate sector, at least in the short term

#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
Morning bites (part 2)

🚘CAAM has cut its FY22 China domestic car sales outlook by 2.5% to 26.8 mn vehicles, amid the economic downturn, COVID and declining demand from end-users. However, the figure would be still up ~2.0% YoY, which is slightly below our estimates, and implies a decrease of some 10% YoY in December (vs. the 8% YoY decline in November). The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) expects car sales to reach 27.6 mn units in 2023 (+3.0% YoY), but states that the industry needs stimulus measures – some of which expire this year. In our view, 2022 sales are likely to have already been priced-in by the market, given the proximity of the year end. At the same time, potentially higher sales in 2023 imply some support for PGMs prices, as China’s auto sector accounts for ~26% and 17% of global autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively

#cars #EV #PGMs
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 3)

🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations were up 17% YoY in November, accelerating from the 14% YoY gain in October and marking the third consecutive month of growth in 2022. Of note, the results were close to our estimate of 20% YoY growth for the month. However, sales are still 17% below the pre-COVID 2019 level (vs. -25% in October): despite supply chain issues easing of late, the November increase was mainly due to the low base effect. Overall, we reiterate our negative outlook on EU car sales, amid the deteriorating macroeconomic conditions globally and ongoing local energy crisis. Hence, in our view, historically soft EU car sales are likely to weigh on PGM demand from the auto industry

#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (Part 1)

💎India’s rough diamond net imports increased 34% YoY in November, having rebounded from the 32% YoY decline in October. Meanwhile, India’s polished diamond net exports were down 12% YoY in November, decelerating from -26% YoY in October. According to GJEPC chairman, Vipul Shah, there are hopes for better trading results amid the recent easing of China's COVID restrictions and the upcoming Chinese New Year. In our view, the diamonds sector is likely to stay under stress in the near future, following the global economic downturn and weak US jewellery sales (which accounted for ~50% of global diamond jewellery retail sales in 2021)

At the same time, India’s lab-grown rough diamond net imports decreased 9% YoY in November (vs. -49% YoY in October). The share of lab-grown net rough imports in natural diamond imports was slightly up to 6% in November, from 5% in October

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (Part 2)

Canada's First Quantum was ordered to halt operations at its copper Cobre Panama mine, after missing a midnight deadline to finilise a deal with the government. The company had to sign an agreement reached in January to pay USD 375mn per annum to the local authorities from the mine. Cobre Panama produced 331kt of copper last year, or ~1.5% of global copper supply in 2021. We therefore believe the news is supportive for the red metal's price, though the timing of the operational stoppage has not yet been defined

#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗CISA mills daily crude steel output was down 2.1% to 1.99mnt in early-December from the last ten days of November. The number represented a 2.7% YoY increase, decelerating from +18.2% YoY in the previous ten days. In turn, steel inventories declined 0.3% over the period (15.0% above the 2021 level, as of 10 December). Overall, the YoY stock build-up (since end-1Q22) might indicate stagnating domestic demand for steel

🇵🇪Peru's protests have triggered transport delays at copper mines. According to Freeport-McMoRan, staff and supplies movement at Cerro Verde (~2% of global copper output in 2021) and other mines were disrupted. In addition, the Las Bambas mine recently reported transportation issues amid protests. However, Glencore's Antamina mine in north-central Peru is running normally. In our view, further disruptions at local mines are likely to support the copper price, as Peru accounts for some 11% of world mined supply

#steel #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)

📈Severstal has increased its January rebar prices for traders by some 2.4% to RUB 35.8k/t (USD 552/t) ex-VAT CPT Moscow. According to Metal Expert, the decision could have been made on the back of reduced market inventories, as well as some growth in steel scrap prices and more expensive railway transportation

• The rebar-billet discount is currently at USD 24/t (vs. the historical premium of USD 20/t). On our numbers, following the price increase, the discount might shorten to USD -11/t

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel