Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production decreased 3.4% YoY in October, vs. the revised decline of 2.1% YoY in September, the International Copper Study Group reports. For 10mo25, however, the figure was still up 1.9% YoY, mainly driven by growth in Peru (+3% YoY) and the DRC (+7% YoY). In our view, the negative production dynamics might persist in the coming months, given the recent accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)
Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics remained positive, up 5.5% YoY in 10mo25, mainly driven by China (+7.5% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production decreased 3.4% YoY in October, vs. the revised decline of 2.1% YoY in September, the International Copper Study Group reports. For 10mo25, however, the figure was still up 1.9% YoY, mainly driven by growth in Peru (+3% YoY) and the DRC (+7% YoY). In our view, the negative production dynamics might persist in the coming months, given the recent accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)
Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics remained positive, up 5.5% YoY in 10mo25, mainly driven by China (+7.5% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output declined 5% YoY in November to 140mnt, after the 6% drop YoY in October, according to World Steel Association (WSA) data. China’s production (50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 11% YoY (down 4% YoY in 11mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA estimates. Specifically, the WSA data show that Russian and EU supply dropped 7% YoY and 4% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production increased 9% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) also gained 11% YoY (up 10% YoY in 11mo25)
To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we think. A new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output declined 5% YoY in November to 140mnt, after the 6% drop YoY in October, according to World Steel Association (WSA) data. China’s production (50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 11% YoY (down 4% YoY in 11mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA estimates. Specifically, the WSA data show that Russian and EU supply dropped 7% YoY and 4% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production increased 9% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) also gained 11% YoY (up 10% YoY in 11mo25)
To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we think. A new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏭Global primary aluminium output inched up 0.5% YoY in November, in line with October, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased; it was up 1.1% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to provide further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,000/t in 2026F
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 11mo25 (annualised), per the IAI data)
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output inched up 0.5% YoY in November, in line with October, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased; it was up 1.1% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to provide further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,000/t in 2026F
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 11mo25 (annualised), per the IAI data)
#aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations inched up 1% YoY in November, vs. the 5% YoY gain in October, per the ACEA data. Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales fell 5%, which was offset by the strong perfomance from BEVs (+35% YoY) last month. However, the overall figure was still 12% lower than the pre-Covid level (November 2019)
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key global economies, the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (from late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in the coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard) might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations inched up 1% YoY in November, vs. the 5% YoY gain in October, per the ACEA data. Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales fell 5%, which was offset by the strong perfomance from BEVs (+35% YoY) last month. However, the overall figure was still 12% lower than the pre-Covid level (November 2019)
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key global economies, the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (from late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in the coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard) might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
Morning Bites
📈Russia’s gold output increased 5.6% YoY in November, decelerating from the +7.4% YoY in October, per the Rosstat data. Overall, the country’s gold production in 11mo25 was up 5.7% YoY. Russia accounts for some 10% of the world's mined gold supply
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think the precious metal’s price will remain high in 1H26, given the strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to concerns over global trade
#gold
📈Russia’s gold output increased 5.6% YoY in November, decelerating from the +7.4% YoY in October, per the Rosstat data. Overall, the country’s gold production in 11mo25 was up 5.7% YoY. Russia accounts for some 10% of the world's mined gold supply
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think the precious metal’s price will remain high in 1H26, given the strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to concerns over global trade
#gold
❤1
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-December was 1.85mnt, down 1.3% from the previous ten days and also 6.7% lower YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories gained 8.5% over the period, and were 9.4% higher YoY
According to the CISA data, YTD through 20 December local production slid 0.9% YoY. However, the official NBS data showed the country's steel output down 4.0% YoY in 11mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 11mo25) remain high
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-December was 1.85mnt, down 1.3% from the previous ten days and also 6.7% lower YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories gained 8.5% over the period, and were 9.4% higher YoY
According to the CISA data, YTD through 20 December local production slid 0.9% YoY. However, the official NBS data showed the country's steel output down 4.0% YoY in 11mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 11mo25) remain high
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Dear Metals Wire subscribers,
Thank you for being with us throughout 2025. We wish you a very happy New Year, and hope that 2026 glistens for you both at work and at home
We shall return in 2026, and look forward to sharing our analysis of metals & mining commodities, as well as our views on breaking industry news
All the very best,
The Metals Wire Team
Thank you for being with us throughout 2025. We wish you a very happy New Year, and hope that 2026 glistens for you both at work and at home
We shall return in 2026, and look forward to sharing our analysis of metals & mining commodities, as well as our views on breaking industry news
All the very best,
The Metals Wire Team
❤11
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late December was 1.64mnt, down 10.9% from the previous ten days and also 12.2% lower YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories fell 11.7% over the period, but were 14.3% higher YoY
According to the CISA data, in 2025 local production slid 1.2% YoY. However, the official NBS data showed the country's steel output down 4.0% YoY in 11mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 11mo25) remain high
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late December was 1.64mnt, down 10.9% from the previous ten days and also 12.2% lower YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories fell 11.7% over the period, but were 14.3% higher YoY
According to the CISA data, in 2025 local production slid 1.2% YoY. However, the official NBS data showed the country's steel output down 4.0% YoY in 11mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 11mo25) remain high
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in December. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was recorded at 48.8 (vs. 49.6 in November), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI was down to 47.9 (from 48.2)
🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.1 (vs. 49.2 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI inched up to 50.1
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 55.0 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, manufacturing PMI readings softened last month in western economies, underlining the ongoing weakness in their local manufacturing activity. At the same time, Chinese PMIs remain rather neutral (close to 50.0), while India is the standout with continuously robust PMI figures
#PMIs
🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in December. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was recorded at 48.8 (vs. 49.6 in November), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI was down to 47.9 (from 48.2)
🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.1 (vs. 49.2 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI inched up to 50.1
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 55.0 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, manufacturing PMI readings softened last month in western economies, underlining the ongoing weakness in their local manufacturing activity. At the same time, Chinese PMIs remain rather neutral (close to 50.0), while India is the standout with continuously robust PMI figures
#PMIs
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 19% YoY in December (domestic + export), accelerating from the +14% YoY in November, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 11% YoY (but still -33% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that local construction activity is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to further cut 'excessive' steel output in 2026 (-4% YoY in 11mo25, per official data). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026, in our view
#steel
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 19% YoY in December (domestic + export), accelerating from the +14% YoY in November, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 11% YoY (but still -33% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that local construction activity is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to further cut 'excessive' steel output in 2026 (-4% YoY in 11mo25, per official data). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026, in our view
#steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 77t of gold net in December, vs. the revised +41t net seen in November, according to World Gold Council data. The reported inflows were especially strong in North America (+46t), while Asian and European funds also accumulated 17t and 12t, respectively. Overall, since May 2024, global funds have added 943t net (~13% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US, and China, as well as persisting geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to concerns about a weaker US dollar and independence of the US Fed
#ETF #gold
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 77t of gold net in December, vs. the revised +41t net seen in November, according to World Gold Council data. The reported inflows were especially strong in North America (+46t), while Asian and European funds also accumulated 17t and 12t, respectively. Overall, since May 2024, global funds have added 943t net (~13% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US, and China, as well as persisting geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to concerns about a weaker US dollar and independence of the US Fed
#ETF #gold
Morning Bites (part 3)
🥈The total silver holdings of global ETFs were up 21% YoY in December to 864mnoz, according to fund data. Meanwhile, in 2025 their net silver purchases jumped 9.1x YoY to 148mnoz (13% of total global Ag demand)
Despite the solid demand for renewable energy in China, which supports a deep physical market deficit (15-18% of global Ag consumption in 2025-26F, on our numbers), current silver prices are already above the medium-term levels we view as fundamentally reasonable (~USD 65/oz), mainly due to abnormal speculative activity, we believe
#silver
🥈The total silver holdings of global ETFs were up 21% YoY in December to 864mnoz, according to fund data. Meanwhile, in 2025 their net silver purchases jumped 9.1x YoY to 148mnoz (13% of total global Ag demand)
Despite the solid demand for renewable energy in China, which supports a deep physical market deficit (15-18% of global Ag consumption in 2025-26F, on our numbers), current silver prices are already above the medium-term levels we view as fundamentally reasonable (~USD 65/oz), mainly due to abnormal speculative activity, we believe
#silver
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for December (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 18% YoY in December, vs. the +8% YoY in November. The exports hit a new record monthly high, likely driven by Beijing's announcement of an export licence requirement for steel shipments from 2026. We remind readers that China aims to further cut “excessive” steel output in 2026 (-4% YoY in 11mo25) and strictly prohibits new capacity additions. In our view, these measures could help to normalise high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 8% YoY in 2025) and support global steel prices in 2026
🪨China’s coal imports rose 12% YoY in December, reversing from the -20% YoY in November. Meanwhile, the volumes were down 10% YoY to 490mnt in 2025. Per Reuters, shipments rebounded in December after supply constraints from major exporters in November, while the recent rise in domestic prices also pushed Chinese buyers to look for less-expensive imported coal
#coal #steel
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 18% YoY in December, vs. the +8% YoY in November. The exports hit a new record monthly high, likely driven by Beijing's announcement of an export licence requirement for steel shipments from 2026. We remind readers that China aims to further cut “excessive” steel output in 2026 (-4% YoY in 11mo25) and strictly prohibits new capacity additions. In our view, these measures could help to normalise high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 8% YoY in 2025) and support global steel prices in 2026
🪨China’s coal imports rose 12% YoY in December, reversing from the -20% YoY in November. Meanwhile, the volumes were down 10% YoY to 490mnt in 2025. Per Reuters, shipments rebounded in December after supply constraints from major exporters in November, while the recent rise in domestic prices also pushed Chinese buyers to look for less-expensive imported coal
#coal #steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏦 Global central banks purchased net 45t of gold in November, vs. the revised +41t net in October, marking the 30th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports
Specifically, gold purchases in November were mainly recorded in Poland, Brazil and Uzbekistan (+12t, +11t and +10t, respectively), while the only notable seller was Jordan (-2t). We remind readers that official central bank purchases currently represent only ~1/3 of real gold demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable long-term level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, in addition to concerns about a weaker US dollar and independence of the US Fed
#gold
🏦 Global central banks purchased net 45t of gold in November, vs. the revised +41t net in October, marking the 30th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports
Specifically, gold purchases in November were mainly recorded in Poland, Brazil and Uzbekistan (+12t, +11t and +10t, respectively), while the only notable seller was Jordan (-2t). We remind readers that official central bank purchases currently represent only ~1/3 of real gold demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable long-term level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, in addition to concerns about a weaker US dollar and independence of the US Fed
#gold
Morning Bites
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany inched up 2% YoY in December, in-line with the dynamics seen in November. However, total sales remained below their pre-COVID level (-13% vs. December 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 18% below their 2019 level, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 23% and 13% weaker, respectively. UK and Spain figures were broadly in-line with 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely increased in low-single digits YoY last month, while remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany inched up 2% YoY in December, in-line with the dynamics seen in November. However, total sales remained below their pre-COVID level (-13% vs. December 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 18% below their 2019 level, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 23% and 13% weaker, respectively. UK and Spain figures were broadly in-line with 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely increased in low-single digits YoY last month, while remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites (part 1)
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales grew 6% YoY in 4Q25, vs. the 12% YoY gain in 3Q25, per a company press-release. Richemont highlighted continuous strength in demand in its Watch & Jewellery segment
Despite some improvement in the performance of retailers, we maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for global diamond market recovery, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales grew 6% YoY in 4Q25, vs. the 12% YoY gain in 3Q25, per a company press-release. Richemont highlighted continuous strength in demand in its Watch & Jewellery segment
Despite some improvement in the performance of retailers, we maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for global diamond market recovery, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇨🇳The State Grid of China plans to increase capex 40% in 2026-30 vs. the 2021-25 level, as part of the country’s efforts to expand its power network to keep pace with rising renewable energy capacity and electricity demand, Bloomberg reports, citing local media. Overall, the company sees some CNY 4tn (~USD 575bn) investment during the period, which is broadly in-line with our forecast
To recap, the State Grid corp. controls ~80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity and historically has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
🇨🇳The State Grid of China plans to increase capex 40% in 2026-30 vs. the 2021-25 level, as part of the country’s efforts to expand its power network to keep pace with rising renewable energy capacity and electricity demand, Bloomberg reports, citing local media. Overall, the company sees some CNY 4tn (~USD 575bn) investment during the period, which is broadly in-line with our forecast
To recap, the State Grid corp. controls ~80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity and historically has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season unfolds, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Alcoa and Freeport are set to release their 4Q25 earnings. On the EBITDA side, we are more conservative on Freeport’s results (than the consensus), while being slightly more positive on Alcoa's financials
We also await South African PGM production statistics for November this week
#reporting_season
As the reporting season unfolds, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Alcoa and Freeport are set to release their 4Q25 earnings. On the EBITDA side, we are more conservative on Freeport’s results (than the consensus), while being slightly more positive on Alcoa's financials
We also await South African PGM production statistics for November this week
#reporting_season