Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output fell 2% YoY in September to 142mnt, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in August, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (52% of global crude steel supply) dropped 5% YoY (being -3% YoY in 9mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA data. Specifically, Russian and EU supply dropped 4% YoY and 5% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production rose 7% YoY, while Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 13% YoY, also being up 11% YoY on 9mo25 basis
To recap, China aims to lower “excessive” steel output and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. In our view, this measure could help to normalise anomaly high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 10% YoY in 9mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output fell 2% YoY in September to 142mnt, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in August, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (52% of global crude steel supply) dropped 5% YoY (being -3% YoY in 9mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA data. Specifically, Russian and EU supply dropped 4% YoY and 5% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production rose 7% YoY, while Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 13% YoY, also being up 11% YoY on 9mo25 basis
To recap, China aims to lower “excessive” steel output and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. In our view, this measure could help to normalise anomaly high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 10% YoY in 9mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026
#steel
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season gains momentum, many M&M names are scheduled to release their 3Q25 financials this week. Among major miners, we are broadly in-line with the consensus on Agnico Eagle’s EBITDA, while our estimates for Southern Copper are more conservative
We also await EU car registrations data for September 2025 this week
#reporting_season
As the reporting season gains momentum, many M&M names are scheduled to release their 3Q25 financials this week. Among major miners, we are broadly in-line with the consensus on Agnico Eagle’s EBITDA, while our estimates for Southern Copper are more conservative
We also await EU car registrations data for September 2025 this week
#reporting_season
Morning Bites
📉China’s output of aluminium products inched down 2% YoY to 5.9mnt in September, vs. the 5% YoY decline in August. In our view, the rapid expansion of the grid and new energy sector in China (~60% of global consumption), combined with the country’s Al output cap, remain among key factors, bolstering aluminium market fundamentals in the medium term
🥉China's output of copper products jumped 11% YoY in September to 2.2mnt, vs. the +15% YoY in August. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t in the coming quarters). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
📉China’s output of aluminium products inched down 2% YoY to 5.9mnt in September, vs. the 5% YoY decline in August. In our view, the rapid expansion of the grid and new energy sector in China (~60% of global consumption), combined with the country’s Al output cap, remain among key factors, bolstering aluminium market fundamentals in the medium term
🥉China's output of copper products jumped 11% YoY in September to 2.2mnt, vs. the +15% YoY in August. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t in the coming quarters). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China increased 29% YoY in September, accelerating from the +23% YoY in August, per NBS data. The figure was also up 45% YoY in 9mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure declined 11% YoY in September (from the high base), reversing from the +26% YoY in August, but was still 10% higher YoY on a 9mo25 basis
We recap, that State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees a 10% YoY CapEx increase in 2025 (in line with 9mo25 dynamics); however, historically, State Grid has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investment (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China increased 29% YoY in September, accelerating from the +23% YoY in August, per NBS data. The figure was also up 45% YoY in 9mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure declined 11% YoY in September (from the high base), reversing from the +26% YoY in August, but was still 10% higher YoY on a 9mo25 basis
We recap, that State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees a 10% YoY CapEx increase in 2025 (in line with 9mo25 dynamics); however, historically, State Grid has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investment (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
🥈Solar panel installations in China dropped a further 55% YoY in September, in line with August's dynamics, per NEA data, as some key subsidies for local solar projects expired in early-June, and investment in grid infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the surging installations of renewable energy capacity in the last several years. However, the figure was still up 46% YoY in 9mo25
Meanwhile, overall photovoltaic cell output in China declined 34% YoY in September (mainly due to the high base effect from 2024), vs. the 106% YoY gain in August. The local PV cells output was also up 29% YoY on 9mo25 basis
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
🥈Solar panel installations in China dropped a further 55% YoY in September, in line with August's dynamics, per NEA data, as some key subsidies for local solar projects expired in early-June, and investment in grid infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the surging installations of renewable energy capacity in the last several years. However, the figure was still up 46% YoY in 9mo25
Meanwhile, overall photovoltaic cell output in China declined 34% YoY in September (mainly due to the high base effect from 2024), vs. the 106% YoY gain in August. The local PV cells output was also up 29% YoY on 9mo25 basis
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
Morning Bites
💎 De Beers’ 3Q25 rough diamond output jumped 38% YoY to 7.7 mnct, the company has reported. Management said that the increase was mainly due to higher output at Botswana’s Jwaneng mine ahead of planned maintenance works in 4Q25. Meanwhile, the company’s FY25 guidance remained unchanged at 20-23 mnct
De Beers sales during 3Q25 totalled 5.7mnct (2.7x higher YoY), reflecting stock rebalancing initiatives with specific goods being sold at lower margins. The miner's YTD average realised price decreased 3% to USD 155/ct, reflecting the 14% drop in the rough price index, which was partially offset by a stronger sales mix
The miner also noted that rough diamond trading conditions remained challenging in 3Q25, but downstream demand for natural stones was broadly stable globally
Overall, we reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
💎 De Beers’ 3Q25 rough diamond output jumped 38% YoY to 7.7 mnct, the company has reported. Management said that the increase was mainly due to higher output at Botswana’s Jwaneng mine ahead of planned maintenance works in 4Q25. Meanwhile, the company’s FY25 guidance remained unchanged at 20-23 mnct
De Beers sales during 3Q25 totalled 5.7mnct (2.7x higher YoY), reflecting stock rebalancing initiatives with specific goods being sold at lower margins. The miner's YTD average realised price decreased 3% to USD 155/ct, reflecting the 14% drop in the rough price index, which was partially offset by a stronger sales mix
The miner also noted that rough diamond trading conditions remained challenging in 3Q25, but downstream demand for natural stones was broadly stable globally
Overall, we reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
❤1
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳China has excluded EVs from its 2026-2030 strategic industries plan, for the first time in more than a decade, signaling a potential shift away from state support, Reuters reports. According to market participants, it seems that now Beijing considers the local EV industry to be mature (as China accounted for ~2/3 of global EV sales in 2024) and no longer requiring the same level of government support
In our view, this is a fundamentally positive factor for local PGM demand, which might bolster Chinese ICE-containing car sales in 2026-30. Furthermore, upcoming China 7 emissions standard might lead to materially higher autocatalyst PGM loadings in China, providing additional support to Pd and Pt demand after 2027
#PGMs
🇨🇳China has excluded EVs from its 2026-2030 strategic industries plan, for the first time in more than a decade, signaling a potential shift away from state support, Reuters reports. According to market participants, it seems that now Beijing considers the local EV industry to be mature (as China accounted for ~2/3 of global EV sales in 2024) and no longer requiring the same level of government support
In our view, this is a fundamentally positive factor for local PGM demand, which might bolster Chinese ICE-containing car sales in 2026-30. Furthermore, upcoming China 7 emissions standard might lead to materially higher autocatalyst PGM loadings in China, providing additional support to Pd and Pt demand after 2027
#PGMs
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏆Global physical gold demand inched down 2% YoY to 988t in 3Q25 (but +38% in value, as gold prices surged 40% YoY in 3Q25), vs. the 7% YoY decline in 2Q25, per World Gold Council data. Specifically, gold jewellery demand decreased 19% YoY in 3Q25, which was almost entirely offset by robust, 17% YoY growth in Bars&Coins demand, and 10% YoY higher central bank purchases
Meanwhile, total global gold demand was up 9% YoY in 3Q25, amid robust inflows into global ETFs. At the same time, world mined gold output grew 2% YoY in 3Q25
#gold
🏆Global physical gold demand inched down 2% YoY to 988t in 3Q25 (but +38% in value, as gold prices surged 40% YoY in 3Q25), vs. the 7% YoY decline in 2Q25, per World Gold Council data. Specifically, gold jewellery demand decreased 19% YoY in 3Q25, which was almost entirely offset by robust, 17% YoY growth in Bars&Coins demand, and 10% YoY higher central bank purchases
Meanwhile, total global gold demand was up 9% YoY in 3Q25, amid robust inflows into global ETFs. At the same time, world mined gold output grew 2% YoY in 3Q25
#gold
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations increased 11% YoY in September, vs. the 4% YoY gain in August, per ACEA data. However, the figure was still 4% lower than the pre-Covid level (September 2019). Specifically, local catalyst-containing and BEV car sales increased 8% and 23% YoY, respectively, in September
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key global economies, the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (since late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard) might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations increased 11% YoY in September, vs. the 4% YoY gain in August, per ACEA data. However, the figure was still 4% lower than the pre-Covid level (September 2019). Specifically, local catalyst-containing and BEV car sales increased 8% and 23% YoY, respectively, in September
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key global economies, the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (since late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard) might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇪🇺 Total car sales in the EU rose 7% YoY in 3Q25
🚗💨 Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in Europe inched down 2% YoY in 3Q25, after the 10% YoY drop in 2Q25. Petrol car sales shrank 13% YoY (vs. -22% YoY in 2Q25), while diesel car sales fell 16% YoY. Diesel cars accounted for 23% of total ICE car registrations. Strong HEV sales (+13% YoY in 3Q25) partially offset the decline in petrol and diesel registrations. Overall, the sales figures remained weak, compared with pre-Covid levels. We note that the EU represents 23% and 30% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively
🚘 EV sales in Europe rose 36% YoY in 3Q25, after the +27% YoY in 2Q25. Specifically, BEV sales were up 27% YoY (vs. +22% YoY in 2Q25), while PHEV sales surged 58% YoY. The share of BEVs in total EV sales inched down to 65% (vs. 66% in 2Q25)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇪🇺 Total car sales in the EU rose 7% YoY in 3Q25
🚗💨 Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in Europe inched down 2% YoY in 3Q25, after the 10% YoY drop in 2Q25. Petrol car sales shrank 13% YoY (vs. -22% YoY in 2Q25), while diesel car sales fell 16% YoY. Diesel cars accounted for 23% of total ICE car registrations. Strong HEV sales (+13% YoY in 3Q25) partially offset the decline in petrol and diesel registrations. Overall, the sales figures remained weak, compared with pre-Covid levels. We note that the EU represents 23% and 30% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively
🚘 EV sales in Europe rose 36% YoY in 3Q25, after the +27% YoY in 2Q25. Specifically, BEV sales were up 27% YoY (vs. +22% YoY in 2Q25), while PHEV sales surged 58% YoY. The share of BEVs in total EV sales inched down to 65% (vs. 66% in 2Q25)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Morning Bites
📈Russia’s gold output increased 11.6% YoY in September, accelerating from the +6.8% YoY in August, per Rosstat data. Overall, the country’s gold production for 9mo25 was up 5.5% YoY. Russia accounts for ~10% of the world's mined gold supply
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 4Q25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#gold
📈Russia’s gold output increased 11.6% YoY in September, accelerating from the +6.8% YoY in August, per Rosstat data. Overall, the country’s gold production for 9mo25 was up 5.5% YoY. Russia accounts for ~10% of the world's mined gold supply
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 4Q25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#gold
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to publish their 3Q25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are broadly in-line with the consensus on Arcelor’s EBITDA, and slightly more bullish on the performances of minor companies
We also expect to see monthly Chinese import-export data for October this week
#reporting_season
As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to publish their 3Q25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are broadly in-line with the consensus on Arcelor’s EBITDA, and slightly more bullish on the performances of minor companies
We also expect to see monthly Chinese import-export data for October this week
#reporting_season
Morning Bites
🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in October. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 50.0 (vs. 49.8 in September), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI inched down to 48.7 (from 49.1)
🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.0 (vs. 49.8 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI slid to 50.6
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 59.2 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, global manufacturing PMI readings were soft last month. India remains the standout with continuously robust PMI figures
#PMIs
🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in October. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 50.0 (vs. 49.8 in September), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI inched down to 48.7 (from 49.1)
🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.0 (vs. 49.8 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI slid to 50.6
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 59.2 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, global manufacturing PMI readings were soft last month. India remains the standout with continuously robust PMI figures
#PMIs
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏦 Global central banks purchased 39t of gold, net, in September, vs. the +15t net buy in August, marking the 28th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports
Specifically, gold purchases in September were mainly led by Brazil (+15t) and Kazakstan (+8t), while the only notable seller was Uzbekistan (-4t). We recap that official central bank purchases represent only ~1/3 of real gold demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable long-term level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 4Q25-2026, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
🏦 Global central banks purchased 39t of gold, net, in September, vs. the +15t net buy in August, marking the 28th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports
Specifically, gold purchases in September were mainly led by Brazil (+15t) and Kazakstan (+8t), while the only notable seller was Uzbekistan (-4t). We recap that official central bank purchases represent only ~1/3 of real gold demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable long-term level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 4Q25-2026, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-October was 1.82mnt, down 9.8% vs. the previous ten days, and 13.2% lower YoY. Local steel inventories fell 11.8% over the period, and were up 7.3% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 31th October), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+0.7% YoY), while, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 2.9% YoY in 9mo25. To recap, China aims to lower “excessive” steel output and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. In our view, this measure could help to normalise the anomaly of high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 10% YoY in 9mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-October was 1.82mnt, down 9.8% vs. the previous ten days, and 13.2% lower YoY. Local steel inventories fell 11.8% over the period, and were up 7.3% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 31th October), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+0.7% YoY), while, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 2.9% YoY in 9mo25. To recap, China aims to lower “excessive” steel output and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. In our view, this measure could help to normalise the anomaly of high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 10% YoY in 9mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for October (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports declined 13% YoY in October, reversing the increase of 3% YoY in September. Although the figure is lower than the historical peak, it remains at elevated levels. We remind readers that China aims to lower “excessive” steel output in 2025 (-3% YoY in 9mo25) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. In our view, this measure could help to normalise abnormally high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 10mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 10% YoY in October, vs. the -3% YoY in September. Per Reuters, the decline was mostly due to the effect of public holidays (fewer working days for October 2025). Although some market representatives expect imports to be supported by winter restocking in November-December 2025, we note already high coal inventories in China, representing ~15% of China's annual demand (as of mid-2025)
#coal #steel
🔗China’s net finished steel exports declined 13% YoY in October, reversing the increase of 3% YoY in September. Although the figure is lower than the historical peak, it remains at elevated levels. We remind readers that China aims to lower “excessive” steel output in 2025 (-3% YoY in 9mo25) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. In our view, this measure could help to normalise abnormally high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 10mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 10% YoY in October, vs. the -3% YoY in September. Per Reuters, the decline was mostly due to the effect of public holidays (fewer working days for October 2025). Although some market representatives expect imports to be supported by winter restocking in November-December 2025, we note already high coal inventories in China, representing ~15% of China's annual demand (as of mid-2025)
#coal #steel