Morning Bites
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output declined 3% YoY in August, reversing the 6% YoY growth in July, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production was down 4% YoY, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in July.
Eskom, which controls ~80% of South African electricity supply, has said it does not expect power cuts from September 2025 until March 2026, unless any major breakdowns occur. We see this as a supportive factor for the output of South African miners. Nevertheless, some market participants estimate that South Africa’s PGM output will still decrease to ~4.8mnoz in 2025 (vs. ~5.1mnoz last year) amid persisting operational headwinds
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output declined 3% YoY in August, reversing the 6% YoY growth in July, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production was down 4% YoY, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in July.
Eskom, which controls ~80% of South African electricity supply, has said it does not expect power cuts from September 2025 until March 2026, unless any major breakdowns occur. We see this as a supportive factor for the output of South African miners. Nevertheless, some market participants estimate that South Africa’s PGM output will still decrease to ~4.8mnoz in 2025 (vs. ~5.1mnoz last year) amid persisting operational headwinds
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season unfolds, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Newmont and Freeport are set to release their 3Q25 earnings. On the EBITDA side, we are broadly in-line with the consensus.
#reporting_season
As the reporting season unfolds, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Newmont and Freeport are set to release their 3Q25 earnings. On the EBITDA side, we are broadly in-line with the consensus.
#reporting_season
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for September (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 5% YoY in September, vs. the 1% YoY decline in August, per NBS data. The recent production declines are likely related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. Although local crude steel supply dropped 3% YoY in 9mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were still up 10% YoY over the period, weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 12% YoY in September, after the 11% YoY decline in August, and were 47% lower than the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 15% YoY in September (68% down from 2021). Personal mortgage loans also dropped 11% YoY in September (61% lower than 2021), while property completions were broadly in-line YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 5% YoY in September, vs. the 1% YoY decline in August, per NBS data. The recent production declines are likely related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. Although local crude steel supply dropped 3% YoY in 9mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were still up 10% YoY over the period, weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 12% YoY in September, after the 11% YoY decline in August, and were 47% lower than the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 15% YoY in September (68% down from 2021). Personal mortgage loans also dropped 11% YoY in September (61% lower than 2021), while property completions were broadly in-line YoY
#steel #property
Morning Bites
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were up 16% YoY in September, vs. the +14% YoY in August. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 7% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports rose 36% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 9% of total trading
We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025 and new trading disruptions (the US raised import tariffs on India’s goods to 50% from late August)
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were up 16% YoY in September, vs. the +14% YoY in August. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 7% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports rose 36% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 9% of total trading
We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025 and new trading disruptions (the US raised import tariffs on India’s goods to 50% from late August)
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏭Global primary aluminium output increased 1.2% YoY in September, vs. the revised +1.1% YoY in August, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 1.2% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to add further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,000/t in 2026F
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 9mo25 (annualised), per the IAI data)
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output increased 1.2% YoY in September, vs. the revised +1.1% YoY in August, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 1.2% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to add further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,000/t in 2026F
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 9mo25 (annualised), per the IAI data)
#aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Chow Tai Fook’s 3Q25 LFL sales rose 7% YoY in the gem-set, platinum and K-gold jewellery segment (vs. the -1% YoY in 2Q25), the company has reported. Specifically, the retailer’s sales in the gem-set segment in Mainland China were up 7% YoY (vs. -2% YoY in 2Q25), while HK and Macau sales rose 5% YoY (vs. +3% YoY in 2Q25)
In our view, the positive dynamics seen last quarter can mostly be attributed to the low base effect and high gold prices (+40% YoY in 3Q25), as downstream diamond demand in Asia is still rather weak, according to Rapaport
We reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
💍Chow Tai Fook’s 3Q25 LFL sales rose 7% YoY in the gem-set, platinum and K-gold jewellery segment (vs. the -1% YoY in 2Q25), the company has reported. Specifically, the retailer’s sales in the gem-set segment in Mainland China were up 7% YoY (vs. -2% YoY in 2Q25), while HK and Macau sales rose 5% YoY (vs. +3% YoY in 2Q25)
In our view, the positive dynamics seen last quarter can mostly be attributed to the low base effect and high gold prices (+40% YoY in 3Q25), as downstream diamond demand in Asia is still rather weak, according to Rapaport
We reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🥉Global mined copper production fell 1.2% YoY in August, vs. the significantly revised gain of 1.9% YoY (previously +7.2% YoY) in July, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. The figure, however, was still up 2.2% YoY on an 8mo25 basis, mainly driven by the growth in Peru (+2.6% YoY) and the DRC (+8% YoY). In our view, the negative production dynamics might continue in the coming months, given the recent accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)
Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow; they were up 6% YoY in 8mo25, mainly driven by China (+9% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production fell 1.2% YoY in August, vs. the significantly revised gain of 1.9% YoY (previously +7.2% YoY) in July, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. The figure, however, was still up 2.2% YoY on an 8mo25 basis, mainly driven by the growth in Peru (+2.6% YoY) and the DRC (+8% YoY). In our view, the negative production dynamics might continue in the coming months, given the recent accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)
Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow; they were up 6% YoY in 8mo25, mainly driven by China (+9% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎China is to end the tax-break for diamond imports, increasing VAT from 4% to 13%, Rapaport reports, citing a Ministry of Finance statement. From 1 November 2025, importers of polished diamonds through the Shanghai Diamond Exchange (SDE) will no longer enjoy a reduced rate of VAT or duty refunds
Overall, the cancellation of diamond trade incentives in China (~13% of global gem-set jewellery sales) is likely to add some stress to the already slow local diamond demand and stimulate outbound spending trends
We reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
💎China is to end the tax-break for diamond imports, increasing VAT from 4% to 13%, Rapaport reports, citing a Ministry of Finance statement. From 1 November 2025, importers of polished diamonds through the Shanghai Diamond Exchange (SDE) will no longer enjoy a reduced rate of VAT or duty refunds
Overall, the cancellation of diamond trade incentives in China (~13% of global gem-set jewellery sales) is likely to add some stress to the already slow local diamond demand and stimulate outbound spending trends
We reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output fell 2% YoY in September to 142mnt, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in August, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (52% of global crude steel supply) dropped 5% YoY (being -3% YoY in 9mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA data. Specifically, Russian and EU supply dropped 4% YoY and 5% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production rose 7% YoY, while Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 13% YoY, also being up 11% YoY on 9mo25 basis
To recap, China aims to lower “excessive” steel output and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. In our view, this measure could help to normalise anomaly high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 10% YoY in 9mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output fell 2% YoY in September to 142mnt, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in August, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (52% of global crude steel supply) dropped 5% YoY (being -3% YoY in 9mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA data. Specifically, Russian and EU supply dropped 4% YoY and 5% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production rose 7% YoY, while Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 13% YoY, also being up 11% YoY on 9mo25 basis
To recap, China aims to lower “excessive” steel output and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. In our view, this measure could help to normalise anomaly high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 10% YoY in 9mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026
#steel
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season gains momentum, many M&M names are scheduled to release their 3Q25 financials this week. Among major miners, we are broadly in-line with the consensus on Agnico Eagle’s EBITDA, while our estimates for Southern Copper are more conservative
We also await EU car registrations data for September 2025 this week
#reporting_season
As the reporting season gains momentum, many M&M names are scheduled to release their 3Q25 financials this week. Among major miners, we are broadly in-line with the consensus on Agnico Eagle’s EBITDA, while our estimates for Southern Copper are more conservative
We also await EU car registrations data for September 2025 this week
#reporting_season
Morning Bites
📉China’s output of aluminium products inched down 2% YoY to 5.9mnt in September, vs. the 5% YoY decline in August. In our view, the rapid expansion of the grid and new energy sector in China (~60% of global consumption), combined with the country’s Al output cap, remain among key factors, bolstering aluminium market fundamentals in the medium term
🥉China's output of copper products jumped 11% YoY in September to 2.2mnt, vs. the +15% YoY in August. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t in the coming quarters). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
📉China’s output of aluminium products inched down 2% YoY to 5.9mnt in September, vs. the 5% YoY decline in August. In our view, the rapid expansion of the grid and new energy sector in China (~60% of global consumption), combined with the country’s Al output cap, remain among key factors, bolstering aluminium market fundamentals in the medium term
🥉China's output of copper products jumped 11% YoY in September to 2.2mnt, vs. the +15% YoY in August. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t in the coming quarters). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China increased 29% YoY in September, accelerating from the +23% YoY in August, per NBS data. The figure was also up 45% YoY in 9mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure declined 11% YoY in September (from the high base), reversing from the +26% YoY in August, but was still 10% higher YoY on a 9mo25 basis
We recap, that State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees a 10% YoY CapEx increase in 2025 (in line with 9mo25 dynamics); however, historically, State Grid has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investment (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China increased 29% YoY in September, accelerating from the +23% YoY in August, per NBS data. The figure was also up 45% YoY in 9mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure declined 11% YoY in September (from the high base), reversing from the +26% YoY in August, but was still 10% higher YoY on a 9mo25 basis
We recap, that State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees a 10% YoY CapEx increase in 2025 (in line with 9mo25 dynamics); however, historically, State Grid has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investment (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
🥈Solar panel installations in China dropped a further 55% YoY in September, in line with August's dynamics, per NEA data, as some key subsidies for local solar projects expired in early-June, and investment in grid infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the surging installations of renewable energy capacity in the last several years. However, the figure was still up 46% YoY in 9mo25
Meanwhile, overall photovoltaic cell output in China declined 34% YoY in September (mainly due to the high base effect from 2024), vs. the 106% YoY gain in August. The local PV cells output was also up 29% YoY on 9mo25 basis
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
🥈Solar panel installations in China dropped a further 55% YoY in September, in line with August's dynamics, per NEA data, as some key subsidies for local solar projects expired in early-June, and investment in grid infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the surging installations of renewable energy capacity in the last several years. However, the figure was still up 46% YoY in 9mo25
Meanwhile, overall photovoltaic cell output in China declined 34% YoY in September (mainly due to the high base effect from 2024), vs. the 106% YoY gain in August. The local PV cells output was also up 29% YoY on 9mo25 basis
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
Morning Bites
💎 De Beers’ 3Q25 rough diamond output jumped 38% YoY to 7.7 mnct, the company has reported. Management said that the increase was mainly due to higher output at Botswana’s Jwaneng mine ahead of planned maintenance works in 4Q25. Meanwhile, the company’s FY25 guidance remained unchanged at 20-23 mnct
De Beers sales during 3Q25 totalled 5.7mnct (2.7x higher YoY), reflecting stock rebalancing initiatives with specific goods being sold at lower margins. The miner's YTD average realised price decreased 3% to USD 155/ct, reflecting the 14% drop in the rough price index, which was partially offset by a stronger sales mix
The miner also noted that rough diamond trading conditions remained challenging in 3Q25, but downstream demand for natural stones was broadly stable globally
Overall, we reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
💎 De Beers’ 3Q25 rough diamond output jumped 38% YoY to 7.7 mnct, the company has reported. Management said that the increase was mainly due to higher output at Botswana’s Jwaneng mine ahead of planned maintenance works in 4Q25. Meanwhile, the company’s FY25 guidance remained unchanged at 20-23 mnct
De Beers sales during 3Q25 totalled 5.7mnct (2.7x higher YoY), reflecting stock rebalancing initiatives with specific goods being sold at lower margins. The miner's YTD average realised price decreased 3% to USD 155/ct, reflecting the 14% drop in the rough price index, which was partially offset by a stronger sales mix
The miner also noted that rough diamond trading conditions remained challenging in 3Q25, but downstream demand for natural stones was broadly stable globally
Overall, we reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
❤1
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳China has excluded EVs from its 2026-2030 strategic industries plan, for the first time in more than a decade, signaling a potential shift away from state support, Reuters reports. According to market participants, it seems that now Beijing considers the local EV industry to be mature (as China accounted for ~2/3 of global EV sales in 2024) and no longer requiring the same level of government support
In our view, this is a fundamentally positive factor for local PGM demand, which might bolster Chinese ICE-containing car sales in 2026-30. Furthermore, upcoming China 7 emissions standard might lead to materially higher autocatalyst PGM loadings in China, providing additional support to Pd and Pt demand after 2027
#PGMs
🇨🇳China has excluded EVs from its 2026-2030 strategic industries plan, for the first time in more than a decade, signaling a potential shift away from state support, Reuters reports. According to market participants, it seems that now Beijing considers the local EV industry to be mature (as China accounted for ~2/3 of global EV sales in 2024) and no longer requiring the same level of government support
In our view, this is a fundamentally positive factor for local PGM demand, which might bolster Chinese ICE-containing car sales in 2026-30. Furthermore, upcoming China 7 emissions standard might lead to materially higher autocatalyst PGM loadings in China, providing additional support to Pd and Pt demand after 2027
#PGMs