Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-September was 1.89mnt, down 8.9% vs. the previous ten days, and 6.2% lower YoY. Local steel inventories declined 4.1% over the period, but were up 2.7% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 30th September), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+1.0% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 2.7% YoY in 8mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025-26. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-September was 1.89mnt, down 8.9% vs. the previous ten days, and 6.2% lower YoY. Local steel inventories declined 4.1% over the period, but were up 2.7% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 30th September), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+1.0% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 2.7% YoY in 8mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025-26. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 15% YoY in September (vs. the +16% YoY in August)
📌China’s new ICE car sales increased 7% YoY in September (vs. the +8 YoY in August). In our view, this is a favourable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals, if the positive trend in registrations persists. We also note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 25% YoY in September, broadly in-line with the +27% seen n June-August. Specifically, local BEV sales (66% of total EV registrations) gained 37% YoY, while PHEVs added 7% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 15% YoY in September (vs. the +16% YoY in August)
📌China’s new ICE car sales increased 7% YoY in September (vs. the +8 YoY in August). In our view, this is a favourable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals, if the positive trend in registrations persists. We also note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 25% YoY in September, broadly in-line with the +27% seen n June-August. Specifically, local BEV sales (66% of total EV registrations) gained 37% YoY, while PHEVs added 7% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏗China’s excavator sales jumped 25% YoY in September (domestic + export), accelerating from the +13% YoY in August, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 22% YoY (still -34% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that the local construction activity is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025-26 (up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026, in our view
#steel
🏗China’s excavator sales jumped 25% YoY in September (domestic + export), accelerating from the +13% YoY in August, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 22% YoY (still -34% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that the local construction activity is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025-26 (up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026, in our view
#steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery rose 2% YoY in 3Q25, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in 2Q25, according to a press release from the retailer. Specifically, the company’s Watches & Jewellery segment showed modest YoY improvement, despite weaker performance of two other major luxury segments (Fashion & Leather and Wines & Spirits)
Overall, we reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and global trade war concerns
#diamonds
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery rose 2% YoY in 3Q25, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in 2Q25, according to a press release from the retailer. Specifically, the company’s Watches & Jewellery segment showed modest YoY improvement, despite weaker performance of two other major luxury segments (Fashion & Leather and Wines & Spirits)
Overall, we reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and global trade war concerns
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output declined 3% YoY in August, reversing the 6% YoY growth in July, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production was down 4% YoY, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in July.
Eskom, which controls ~80% of South African electricity supply, has said it does not expect power cuts from September 2025 until March 2026, unless any major breakdowns occur. We see this as a supportive factor for the output of South African miners. Nevertheless, some market participants estimate that South Africa’s PGM output will still decrease to ~4.8mnoz in 2025 (vs. ~5.1mnoz last year) amid persisting operational headwinds
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output declined 3% YoY in August, reversing the 6% YoY growth in July, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production was down 4% YoY, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in July.
Eskom, which controls ~80% of South African electricity supply, has said it does not expect power cuts from September 2025 until March 2026, unless any major breakdowns occur. We see this as a supportive factor for the output of South African miners. Nevertheless, some market participants estimate that South Africa’s PGM output will still decrease to ~4.8mnoz in 2025 (vs. ~5.1mnoz last year) amid persisting operational headwinds
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season unfolds, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Newmont and Freeport are set to release their 3Q25 earnings. On the EBITDA side, we are broadly in-line with the consensus.
#reporting_season
As the reporting season unfolds, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Newmont and Freeport are set to release their 3Q25 earnings. On the EBITDA side, we are broadly in-line with the consensus.
#reporting_season
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for September (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 5% YoY in September, vs. the 1% YoY decline in August, per NBS data. The recent production declines are likely related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. Although local crude steel supply dropped 3% YoY in 9mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were still up 10% YoY over the period, weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 12% YoY in September, after the 11% YoY decline in August, and were 47% lower than the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 15% YoY in September (68% down from 2021). Personal mortgage loans also dropped 11% YoY in September (61% lower than 2021), while property completions were broadly in-line YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 5% YoY in September, vs. the 1% YoY decline in August, per NBS data. The recent production declines are likely related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. Although local crude steel supply dropped 3% YoY in 9mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were still up 10% YoY over the period, weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 12% YoY in September, after the 11% YoY decline in August, and were 47% lower than the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 15% YoY in September (68% down from 2021). Personal mortgage loans also dropped 11% YoY in September (61% lower than 2021), while property completions were broadly in-line YoY
#steel #property
Morning Bites
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were up 16% YoY in September, vs. the +14% YoY in August. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 7% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports rose 36% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 9% of total trading
We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025 and new trading disruptions (the US raised import tariffs on India’s goods to 50% from late August)
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were up 16% YoY in September, vs. the +14% YoY in August. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 7% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports rose 36% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 9% of total trading
We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025 and new trading disruptions (the US raised import tariffs on India’s goods to 50% from late August)
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏭Global primary aluminium output increased 1.2% YoY in September, vs. the revised +1.1% YoY in August, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 1.2% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to add further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,000/t in 2026F
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 9mo25 (annualised), per the IAI data)
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output increased 1.2% YoY in September, vs. the revised +1.1% YoY in August, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 1.2% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to add further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,000/t in 2026F
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 9mo25 (annualised), per the IAI data)
#aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Chow Tai Fook’s 3Q25 LFL sales rose 7% YoY in the gem-set, platinum and K-gold jewellery segment (vs. the -1% YoY in 2Q25), the company has reported. Specifically, the retailer’s sales in the gem-set segment in Mainland China were up 7% YoY (vs. -2% YoY in 2Q25), while HK and Macau sales rose 5% YoY (vs. +3% YoY in 2Q25)
In our view, the positive dynamics seen last quarter can mostly be attributed to the low base effect and high gold prices (+40% YoY in 3Q25), as downstream diamond demand in Asia is still rather weak, according to Rapaport
We reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
💍Chow Tai Fook’s 3Q25 LFL sales rose 7% YoY in the gem-set, platinum and K-gold jewellery segment (vs. the -1% YoY in 2Q25), the company has reported. Specifically, the retailer’s sales in the gem-set segment in Mainland China were up 7% YoY (vs. -2% YoY in 2Q25), while HK and Macau sales rose 5% YoY (vs. +3% YoY in 2Q25)
In our view, the positive dynamics seen last quarter can mostly be attributed to the low base effect and high gold prices (+40% YoY in 3Q25), as downstream diamond demand in Asia is still rather weak, according to Rapaport
We reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🥉Global mined copper production fell 1.2% YoY in August, vs. the significantly revised gain of 1.9% YoY (previously +7.2% YoY) in July, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. The figure, however, was still up 2.2% YoY on an 8mo25 basis, mainly driven by the growth in Peru (+2.6% YoY) and the DRC (+8% YoY). In our view, the negative production dynamics might continue in the coming months, given the recent accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)
Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow; they were up 6% YoY in 8mo25, mainly driven by China (+9% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production fell 1.2% YoY in August, vs. the significantly revised gain of 1.9% YoY (previously +7.2% YoY) in July, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. The figure, however, was still up 2.2% YoY on an 8mo25 basis, mainly driven by the growth in Peru (+2.6% YoY) and the DRC (+8% YoY). In our view, the negative production dynamics might continue in the coming months, given the recent accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)
Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow; they were up 6% YoY in 8mo25, mainly driven by China (+9% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎China is to end the tax-break for diamond imports, increasing VAT from 4% to 13%, Rapaport reports, citing a Ministry of Finance statement. From 1 November 2025, importers of polished diamonds through the Shanghai Diamond Exchange (SDE) will no longer enjoy a reduced rate of VAT or duty refunds
Overall, the cancellation of diamond trade incentives in China (~13% of global gem-set jewellery sales) is likely to add some stress to the already slow local diamond demand and stimulate outbound spending trends
We reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
💎China is to end the tax-break for diamond imports, increasing VAT from 4% to 13%, Rapaport reports, citing a Ministry of Finance statement. From 1 November 2025, importers of polished diamonds through the Shanghai Diamond Exchange (SDE) will no longer enjoy a reduced rate of VAT or duty refunds
Overall, the cancellation of diamond trade incentives in China (~13% of global gem-set jewellery sales) is likely to add some stress to the already slow local diamond demand and stimulate outbound spending trends
We reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output fell 2% YoY in September to 142mnt, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in August, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (52% of global crude steel supply) dropped 5% YoY (being -3% YoY in 9mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA data. Specifically, Russian and EU supply dropped 4% YoY and 5% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production rose 7% YoY, while Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 13% YoY, also being up 11% YoY on 9mo25 basis
To recap, China aims to lower “excessive” steel output and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. In our view, this measure could help to normalise anomaly high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 10% YoY in 9mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output fell 2% YoY in September to 142mnt, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in August, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (52% of global crude steel supply) dropped 5% YoY (being -3% YoY in 9mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA data. Specifically, Russian and EU supply dropped 4% YoY and 5% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production rose 7% YoY, while Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 13% YoY, also being up 11% YoY on 9mo25 basis
To recap, China aims to lower “excessive” steel output and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. In our view, this measure could help to normalise anomaly high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 10% YoY in 9mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026
#steel
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season gains momentum, many M&M names are scheduled to release their 3Q25 financials this week. Among major miners, we are broadly in-line with the consensus on Agnico Eagle’s EBITDA, while our estimates for Southern Copper are more conservative
We also await EU car registrations data for September 2025 this week
#reporting_season
As the reporting season gains momentum, many M&M names are scheduled to release their 3Q25 financials this week. Among major miners, we are broadly in-line with the consensus on Agnico Eagle’s EBITDA, while our estimates for Southern Copper are more conservative
We also await EU car registrations data for September 2025 this week
#reporting_season
Morning Bites
📉China’s output of aluminium products inched down 2% YoY to 5.9mnt in September, vs. the 5% YoY decline in August. In our view, the rapid expansion of the grid and new energy sector in China (~60% of global consumption), combined with the country’s Al output cap, remain among key factors, bolstering aluminium market fundamentals in the medium term
🥉China's output of copper products jumped 11% YoY in September to 2.2mnt, vs. the +15% YoY in August. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t in the coming quarters). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
📉China’s output of aluminium products inched down 2% YoY to 5.9mnt in September, vs. the 5% YoY decline in August. In our view, the rapid expansion of the grid and new energy sector in China (~60% of global consumption), combined with the country’s Al output cap, remain among key factors, bolstering aluminium market fundamentals in the medium term
🥉China's output of copper products jumped 11% YoY in September to 2.2mnt, vs. the +15% YoY in August. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t in the coming quarters). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China increased 29% YoY in September, accelerating from the +23% YoY in August, per NBS data. The figure was also up 45% YoY in 9mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure declined 11% YoY in September (from the high base), reversing from the +26% YoY in August, but was still 10% higher YoY on a 9mo25 basis
We recap, that State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees a 10% YoY CapEx increase in 2025 (in line with 9mo25 dynamics); however, historically, State Grid has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investment (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China increased 29% YoY in September, accelerating from the +23% YoY in August, per NBS data. The figure was also up 45% YoY in 9mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure declined 11% YoY in September (from the high base), reversing from the +26% YoY in August, but was still 10% higher YoY on a 9mo25 basis
We recap, that State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees a 10% YoY CapEx increase in 2025 (in line with 9mo25 dynamics); however, historically, State Grid has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investment (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium