Morning Bites (part 2)
🏦 Global central banks purchased 15t of gold net in August, vs. the revised net sale of 1t in July, the World Gold Council reports. Kazakhstan net purchased 8t of gold, while no major sellers were recorded in August
In September, the National Bank of Poland (the leading central bank gold buyer in 2024, with net purchases of 90t, per official data) confirmed that it would be raising its target gold share within its international reserves from 20% to 30%. In our view, this is a long-term positive factor for gold demand as global central banks tend to diversify their holdings. Some market participants estimate that, in 2025, the share of gold in global central bank reserves surpassed that of U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we consider its fundamentally reasonable level; however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
🏦 Global central banks purchased 15t of gold net in August, vs. the revised net sale of 1t in July, the World Gold Council reports. Kazakhstan net purchased 8t of gold, while no major sellers were recorded in August
In September, the National Bank of Poland (the leading central bank gold buyer in 2024, with net purchases of 90t, per official data) confirmed that it would be raising its target gold share within its international reserves from 20% to 30%. In our view, this is a long-term positive factor for gold demand as global central banks tend to diversify their holdings. Some market participants estimate that, in 2025, the share of gold in global central bank reserves surpassed that of U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we consider its fundamentally reasonable level; however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
Morning Bites
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales gained 16% YoY in August, accelerating from the +9% YoY in July, per government data. According to Rapaport, the positive dynamics were driven by a pick-up in local consumer sentiment and inbound tourism, as well as partly reflected rising gold prices
We reiterate our view that the global diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, amid still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and global trade war concerns
#diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales gained 16% YoY in August, accelerating from the +9% YoY in July, per government data. According to Rapaport, the positive dynamics were driven by a pick-up in local consumer sentiment and inbound tourism, as well as partly reflected rising gold prices
We reiterate our view that the global diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, amid still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and global trade war concerns
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 10% YoY in September, vs. the 4% YoY gain in August. However, the sales remained below their pre-COVID level (-9% vs. 2019 level). Specifically, in France, car sales were 19% below their 2019 level, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 11% and 4% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 9% below the 2019 level, while Spain figures were 4% higher
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched up YoY last month, but remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 10% YoY in September, vs. the 4% YoY gain in August. However, the sales remained below their pre-COVID level (-9% vs. 2019 level). Specifically, in France, car sales were 19% below their 2019 level, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 11% and 4% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 9% below the 2019 level, while Spain figures were 4% higher
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched up YoY last month, but remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased a near-record 146t of gold net in September, vs. the +53t net seen in August, according to World Gold Council data. The reported inflows were strong across all main regions: North America (+89t), Europe (+37t) and Asia (+18t). Overall, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 758t net (~12% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, as well as persisting geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2H25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased a near-record 146t of gold net in September, vs. the +53t net seen in August, according to World Gold Council data. The reported inflows were strong across all main regions: North America (+89t), Europe (+37t) and Asia (+18t). Overall, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 758t net (~12% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, as well as persisting geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2H25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
Morning Bites
🚘US light vehicle sales rose 6% YoY in September, after the 2% YoY increase in August. Despite the positive dynamics, the volumes remained 4% below their pre-Covid 2019 levels, with EVs driving most of the growth ahead of expiring subsidies
To remind readers, the US Congress has recently approved new budget legislation that eliminated USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, since the end of September 2025. In our view, this change will negatively affect BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. However, this is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals, in our view: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
🚘US light vehicle sales rose 6% YoY in September, after the 2% YoY increase in August. Despite the positive dynamics, the volumes remained 4% below their pre-Covid 2019 levels, with EVs driving most of the growth ahead of expiring subsidies
To remind readers, the US Congress has recently approved new budget legislation that eliminated USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, since the end of September 2025. In our view, this change will negatively affect BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. However, this is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals, in our view: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
❤1
Morning Bites
⛏️ Teck Resources has lowered its 2025-26 copper production guidance, amid operational issues at the Quebrada Blanca (QB2) mine, per a company statement. Specifically, the target was reviewed due to tailings management constraints, lower than expected ore grades and additional maintenance works. Now Teck plans to produce 415-465 kt of Cu in 2025 (vs. 490-565 kt previously) and 455-530 kt in 2026 (vs. 550-620 kt), affecting ~0.5% of global supply
Given recent accidents and production disruptions at other major mines — Grasberg (3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (2%) and Kakula (1.5%) — we maintain our view that a “perfect storm” is forming in the global copper market. Therefore, we remain bullish on copper and expect prices to reach USD 12,000/t in 1H26 in our base case scenario
#copper
⛏️ Teck Resources has lowered its 2025-26 copper production guidance, amid operational issues at the Quebrada Blanca (QB2) mine, per a company statement. Specifically, the target was reviewed due to tailings management constraints, lower than expected ore grades and additional maintenance works. Now Teck plans to produce 415-465 kt of Cu in 2025 (vs. 490-565 kt previously) and 455-530 kt in 2026 (vs. 550-620 kt), affecting ~0.5% of global supply
Given recent accidents and production disruptions at other major mines — Grasberg (3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (2%) and Kakula (1.5%) — we maintain our view that a “perfect storm” is forming in the global copper market. Therefore, we remain bullish on copper and expect prices to reach USD 12,000/t in 1H26 in our base case scenario
#copper
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🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for September (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 3% YoY in September, after being flat YoY in August, and remained at historical highs, amid persistently soft domestic demand. To recap, China aims to lower “excessive” steel output in 2025 (-3% YoY in 8mo25) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. In our view, this measure could help to normalise unusual Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 10% YoY in 9mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 3% YoY in September, vs. the 7% YoY decline in August. According to Reuters, China's coal imports rose to a nine-month high in September, as rising local prices (after some mining outages in Inner Mongolia) made imported coal more attractive for Chinese buyers
#coal #steel
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 3% YoY in September, after being flat YoY in August, and remained at historical highs, amid persistently soft domestic demand. To recap, China aims to lower “excessive” steel output in 2025 (-3% YoY in 8mo25) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. In our view, this measure could help to normalise unusual Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 10% YoY in 9mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 3% YoY in September, vs. the 7% YoY decline in August. According to Reuters, China's coal imports rose to a nine-month high in September, as rising local prices (after some mining outages in Inner Mongolia) made imported coal more attractive for Chinese buyers
#coal #steel
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-September was 1.89mnt, down 8.9% vs. the previous ten days, and 6.2% lower YoY. Local steel inventories declined 4.1% over the period, but were up 2.7% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 30th September), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+1.0% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 2.7% YoY in 8mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025-26. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-September was 1.89mnt, down 8.9% vs. the previous ten days, and 6.2% lower YoY. Local steel inventories declined 4.1% over the period, but were up 2.7% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 30th September), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+1.0% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 2.7% YoY in 8mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025-26. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 15% YoY in September (vs. the +16% YoY in August)
📌China’s new ICE car sales increased 7% YoY in September (vs. the +8 YoY in August). In our view, this is a favourable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals, if the positive trend in registrations persists. We also note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 25% YoY in September, broadly in-line with the +27% seen n June-August. Specifically, local BEV sales (66% of total EV registrations) gained 37% YoY, while PHEVs added 7% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 15% YoY in September (vs. the +16% YoY in August)
📌China’s new ICE car sales increased 7% YoY in September (vs. the +8 YoY in August). In our view, this is a favourable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals, if the positive trend in registrations persists. We also note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 25% YoY in September, broadly in-line with the +27% seen n June-August. Specifically, local BEV sales (66% of total EV registrations) gained 37% YoY, while PHEVs added 7% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏗China’s excavator sales jumped 25% YoY in September (domestic + export), accelerating from the +13% YoY in August, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 22% YoY (still -34% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that the local construction activity is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025-26 (up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026, in our view
#steel
🏗China’s excavator sales jumped 25% YoY in September (domestic + export), accelerating from the +13% YoY in August, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 22% YoY (still -34% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that the local construction activity is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025-26 (up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026, in our view
#steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery rose 2% YoY in 3Q25, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in 2Q25, according to a press release from the retailer. Specifically, the company’s Watches & Jewellery segment showed modest YoY improvement, despite weaker performance of two other major luxury segments (Fashion & Leather and Wines & Spirits)
Overall, we reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and global trade war concerns
#diamonds
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery rose 2% YoY in 3Q25, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in 2Q25, according to a press release from the retailer. Specifically, the company’s Watches & Jewellery segment showed modest YoY improvement, despite weaker performance of two other major luxury segments (Fashion & Leather and Wines & Spirits)
Overall, we reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and global trade war concerns
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output declined 3% YoY in August, reversing the 6% YoY growth in July, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production was down 4% YoY, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in July.
Eskom, which controls ~80% of South African electricity supply, has said it does not expect power cuts from September 2025 until March 2026, unless any major breakdowns occur. We see this as a supportive factor for the output of South African miners. Nevertheless, some market participants estimate that South Africa’s PGM output will still decrease to ~4.8mnoz in 2025 (vs. ~5.1mnoz last year) amid persisting operational headwinds
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output declined 3% YoY in August, reversing the 6% YoY growth in July, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production was down 4% YoY, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in July.
Eskom, which controls ~80% of South African electricity supply, has said it does not expect power cuts from September 2025 until March 2026, unless any major breakdowns occur. We see this as a supportive factor for the output of South African miners. Nevertheless, some market participants estimate that South Africa’s PGM output will still decrease to ~4.8mnoz in 2025 (vs. ~5.1mnoz last year) amid persisting operational headwinds
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season unfolds, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Newmont and Freeport are set to release their 3Q25 earnings. On the EBITDA side, we are broadly in-line with the consensus.
#reporting_season
As the reporting season unfolds, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Newmont and Freeport are set to release their 3Q25 earnings. On the EBITDA side, we are broadly in-line with the consensus.
#reporting_season
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for September (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 5% YoY in September, vs. the 1% YoY decline in August, per NBS data. The recent production declines are likely related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. Although local crude steel supply dropped 3% YoY in 9mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were still up 10% YoY over the period, weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 12% YoY in September, after the 11% YoY decline in August, and were 47% lower than the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 15% YoY in September (68% down from 2021). Personal mortgage loans also dropped 11% YoY in September (61% lower than 2021), while property completions were broadly in-line YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 5% YoY in September, vs. the 1% YoY decline in August, per NBS data. The recent production declines are likely related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. Although local crude steel supply dropped 3% YoY in 9mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were still up 10% YoY over the period, weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 12% YoY in September, after the 11% YoY decline in August, and were 47% lower than the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 15% YoY in September (68% down from 2021). Personal mortgage loans also dropped 11% YoY in September (61% lower than 2021), while property completions were broadly in-line YoY
#steel #property
Morning Bites
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were up 16% YoY in September, vs. the +14% YoY in August. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 7% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports rose 36% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 9% of total trading
We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025 and new trading disruptions (the US raised import tariffs on India’s goods to 50% from late August)
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were up 16% YoY in September, vs. the +14% YoY in August. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 7% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports rose 36% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 9% of total trading
We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025 and new trading disruptions (the US raised import tariffs on India’s goods to 50% from late August)
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏭Global primary aluminium output increased 1.2% YoY in September, vs. the revised +1.1% YoY in August, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 1.2% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to add further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,000/t in 2026F
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 9mo25 (annualised), per the IAI data)
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output increased 1.2% YoY in September, vs. the revised +1.1% YoY in August, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 1.2% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to add further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,000/t in 2026F
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 9mo25 (annualised), per the IAI data)
#aluminium