Morning Bites
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output was flat YoY in July, after the 6% YoY drop in June, per INE data. Meanwhile, according to Mining Minister, Chile is still on track to meet its 2025 Cu target of ~5.6mnt (modest 1-2% YoY increase)
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output rose 2% YoY in July, vs. the 7% YoY gain in June. To recap, Peru's top mining association, SNMPE, expects the country's 2025 copper output to hit ~2.80mnt, which is broadly in-line with the 2.74mnt seen in 2024. Meanwhile, in 7mo25, Peru's copper production reached 1.57mnt, being up 3.4% YoY
The joint production of Chile and Peru (~24% and ~12% of global Cu supply, respectively) was up 1% YoY in July, as growth in Peruvian output was offset by the slowdown in Chile’s supply growth
We maintain our bullish view on copper, given strong demand perspectives and supply risks amid recent outages at several major mines (e.g Grasberg, Kakula and El Tentiente)
#copper
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output was flat YoY in July, after the 6% YoY drop in June, per INE data. Meanwhile, according to Mining Minister, Chile is still on track to meet its 2025 Cu target of ~5.6mnt (modest 1-2% YoY increase)
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output rose 2% YoY in July, vs. the 7% YoY gain in June. To recap, Peru's top mining association, SNMPE, expects the country's 2025 copper output to hit ~2.80mnt, which is broadly in-line with the 2.74mnt seen in 2024. Meanwhile, in 7mo25, Peru's copper production reached 1.57mnt, being up 3.4% YoY
The joint production of Chile and Peru (~24% and ~12% of global Cu supply, respectively) was up 1% YoY in July, as growth in Peruvian output was offset by the slowdown in Chile’s supply growth
We maintain our bullish view on copper, given strong demand perspectives and supply risks amid recent outages at several major mines (e.g Grasberg, Kakula and El Tentiente)
#copper
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output was flat YoY in August at 145mnt, vs. the 1% YoY decline in July, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (53% of global crude steel supply) dropped 1% YoY (being -3% YoY in 8mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA data. Specifically, Russian and EU supply dropped 5% YoY and 3% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production rose 3% YoY, while Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 13% YoY, also being up 10% YoY on 8mo25 basis
To recap, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. Per market participants, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply. In our view, this is likely to cool surging Chinese steel exports and support global prices in late-2025 or 2026
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output was flat YoY in August at 145mnt, vs. the 1% YoY decline in July, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (53% of global crude steel supply) dropped 1% YoY (being -3% YoY in 8mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA data. Specifically, Russian and EU supply dropped 5% YoY and 3% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production rose 3% YoY, while Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 13% YoY, also being up 10% YoY on 8mo25 basis
To recap, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. Per market participants, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply. In our view, this is likely to cool surging Chinese steel exports and support global prices in late-2025 or 2026
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🥉Global mined copper production increased 5.6% YoY in July, vs. the revised gain of 3.1% YoY in June, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. The figure was also up 3.4% YoY on a 7mo25 basis, mainly driven by growth in Peru (+3.3% YoY) and the DRC (+11.8% YoY). However, positive production dynamics in further months will be limited, in our view, given the recent fatal accident at the El Tentiente mine (~2.0% of global supply) and huge Grasberg mine (~3.5% of global supply)
Apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow, being up 5.9% YoY in 7mo25, mainly driven by China (+8.9% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production increased 5.6% YoY in July, vs. the revised gain of 3.1% YoY in June, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. The figure was also up 3.4% YoY on a 7mo25 basis, mainly driven by growth in Peru (+3.3% YoY) and the DRC (+11.8% YoY). However, positive production dynamics in further months will be limited, in our view, given the recent fatal accident at the El Tentiente mine (~2.0% of global supply) and huge Grasberg mine (~3.5% of global supply)
Apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow, being up 5.9% YoY in 7mo25, mainly driven by China (+8.9% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Russia’s gold output rose 6.8% YoY in August, reversing from the 1.2% YoY decline in July, per Rosstat data. Overall, the country’s gold production for 8mo25 was up 4.6% YoY. Russia accounts for ~10% of the world's mined gold supply
We maintain our view that gold is trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), but we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2025-26, given steady demand from global central banks, continuous inflows into ETFs, as well as geopolitical tensions
#gold
📈Russia’s gold output rose 6.8% YoY in August, reversing from the 1.2% YoY decline in July, per Rosstat data. Overall, the country’s gold production for 8mo25 was up 4.6% YoY. Russia accounts for ~10% of the world's mined gold supply
We maintain our view that gold is trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), but we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2025-26, given steady demand from global central banks, continuous inflows into ETFs, as well as geopolitical tensions
#gold
Morning Bites (part 3)
⛏️ Freeport McMoran expects ~35% lower copper output at Grasberg in 2026, compared with its previous estimates, amid the recent fatal accident, the company reports. To recap, Freeport’s previous production guidance for the site in 2026 was ~770kt of Cu. Thus, the 35% decline implies additional ~1% deficit to the market balance in 2026
Grasberg is one of the world’s largest copper and gold mines, accounting for >3% of global mined Cu output. Even with a gradual restart, the anticipated supply drop will additionally affect already tight global Cu supply and support prices, which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t in 1H26 in our base-case scenario
#copper
⛏️ Freeport McMoran expects ~35% lower copper output at Grasberg in 2026, compared with its previous estimates, amid the recent fatal accident, the company reports. To recap, Freeport’s previous production guidance for the site in 2026 was ~770kt of Cu. Thus, the 35% decline implies additional ~1% deficit to the market balance in 2026
Grasberg is one of the world’s largest copper and gold mines, accounting for >3% of global mined Cu output. Even with a gradual restart, the anticipated supply drop will additionally affect already tight global Cu supply and support prices, which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t in 1H26 in our base-case scenario
#copper
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-September was 2.07mnt, down 0.6% vs. the previous ten days, but 4.2% higher YoY. Local steel inventories also fell 3.4% over the period, and were down 2.3% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 20th September), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+1.3% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 2.7% YoY in 8mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025-26. To recap, these measures might affect up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-September was 2.07mnt, down 0.6% vs. the previous ten days, but 4.2% higher YoY. Local steel inventories also fell 3.4% over the period, and were down 2.3% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 20th September), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+1.3% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 2.7% YoY in 8mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025-26. To recap, these measures might affect up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China increased 23% YoY in August, accelerating from the 5% YoY expansion in July, per NBS data. The figure was also up 48% YoY in 8mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure jumped 26% YoY in August (vs. the -1% YoY in July), being up 14% YoY on 8mo25 basis
Although State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically, the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China increased 23% YoY in August, accelerating from the 5% YoY expansion in July, per NBS data. The figure was also up 48% YoY in 8mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure jumped 26% YoY in August (vs. the -1% YoY in July), being up 14% YoY on 8mo25 basis
Although State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically, the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
🥈Solar panel installations in China dropped a further 55% YoY in August, vs. the 57% YoY decline in July, per NEA data, as some key subsidies for local solar projects expired in early-June, and investment in grid infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the surging installations of renewable energy capacity in the last several years. However, the figure was still up 61% YoY in 8mo25
Meanwhile, overall photovoltaic cell output in China surged 106% YoY in August, vs. the 116% YoY gain in July (and was up 48% YoY on 8mo25 basis)
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
🥈Solar panel installations in China dropped a further 55% YoY in August, vs. the 57% YoY decline in July, per NEA data, as some key subsidies for local solar projects expired in early-June, and investment in grid infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the surging installations of renewable energy capacity in the last several years. However, the figure was still up 61% YoY in 8mo25
Meanwhile, overall photovoltaic cell output in China surged 106% YoY in August, vs. the 116% YoY gain in July (and was up 48% YoY on 8mo25 basis)
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
Morning Bites (part 3)
🥈Global ETFs’ total silver holdings were up 14% YoY in September to 818mnoz, according to funds’ data. Meanwhile, on the 9mo25 basis their net inflows jumped 4.9x YoY to 102mnoz (11% of total global Ag demand in 2024, in annualized terms)
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, supporting deep physical market deficit (15-18% of global Ag consumption in 2025-26F, on our numbers), as well as growing investment appetite we reiterate our positive view on silver
To recap, we expect the precious metal’s price to reach over USD 60/oz in 2026F amid strong market fundamentals
#silver
🥈Global ETFs’ total silver holdings were up 14% YoY in September to 818mnoz, according to funds’ data. Meanwhile, on the 9mo25 basis their net inflows jumped 4.9x YoY to 102mnoz (11% of total global Ag demand in 2024, in annualized terms)
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, supporting deep physical market deficit (15-18% of global Ag consumption in 2025-26F, on our numbers), as well as growing investment appetite we reiterate our positive view on silver
To recap, we expect the precious metal’s price to reach over USD 60/oz in 2026F amid strong market fundamentals
#silver
Morning Bites
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations increased 4% YoY in August, vs. the 6% YoY gain in July, per ACEA data. However, the figure was still 27% lower than the pre-Covid level (August 2019). Specifically, catalyst-containing car registrations were flat YoY, while the overall growth was mainly attributable to stronger BEV car sales (+28% YoY in August)
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, as well as the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (since late-September 2025), might bolster PGM market fundamentals
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations increased 4% YoY in August, vs. the 6% YoY gain in July, per ACEA data. However, the figure was still 27% lower than the pre-Covid level (August 2019). Specifically, catalyst-containing car registrations were flat YoY, while the overall growth was mainly attributable to stronger BEV car sales (+28% YoY in August)
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, as well as the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (since late-September 2025), might bolster PGM market fundamentals
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
Morning Bites
🇨🇳 China has temporarily banned all new iron ore imports from BHP, Bloomberg reports, citing a state-controlled agency (CMRG) message to local steelmakers and traders. The move expands an earlier curb on some of BHP’s shipments to China, amid the escalation of a pricing dispute
In our view, the decision is more likely to be a negotiation tactic than a permanent policy. To recap, current global iron ore prices remain elevated (above USD 100/t), while steel and coking coal prices are still below 90th-ile cash cost, on our numbers. Furthermore, China aims to lower “excessive” steel output in 2025 (-3% YoY in 8mo25) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26, which is a fundamentally negative factor for iron ore demand and prices
We estimate that BHP accounts for ~13% of total Chinese iron ore imports
#iron_ore #steel #BHP
🇨🇳 China has temporarily banned all new iron ore imports from BHP, Bloomberg reports, citing a state-controlled agency (CMRG) message to local steelmakers and traders. The move expands an earlier curb on some of BHP’s shipments to China, amid the escalation of a pricing dispute
In our view, the decision is more likely to be a negotiation tactic than a permanent policy. To recap, current global iron ore prices remain elevated (above USD 100/t), while steel and coking coal prices are still below 90th-ile cash cost, on our numbers. Furthermore, China aims to lower “excessive” steel output in 2025 (-3% YoY in 8mo25) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26, which is a fundamentally negative factor for iron ore demand and prices
We estimate that BHP accounts for ~13% of total Chinese iron ore imports
#iron_ore #steel #BHP
Morning Bites
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in September. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 49.8 (vs. 50.7 in August), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.1 (from 48.7)
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China inched up to 49.8 (vs. 49.4 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 57.7 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Global manufacturing PMI readings were on the whole weak last month: Eurozone PMI returned into contraction zone. India remains the standout with continuously robust PMI figures
#PMIs
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in September. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 49.8 (vs. 50.7 in August), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.1 (from 48.7)
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China inched up to 49.8 (vs. 49.4 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 57.7 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Global manufacturing PMI readings were on the whole weak last month: Eurozone PMI returned into contraction zone. India remains the standout with continuously robust PMI figures
#PMIs
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎US jewellery sales increased 4% YoY in August, in line with the revised dynamics of July, IDEX reports, citing local Department of Commerce data. According to the agency, despite the recently strong numbers, new US import tariffs on India’s goods (raised to 50% since late August) might negatively affect local sales in the coming months
We reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025
#diamonds
💎US jewellery sales increased 4% YoY in August, in line with the revised dynamics of July, IDEX reports, citing local Department of Commerce data. According to the agency, despite the recently strong numbers, new US import tariffs on India’s goods (raised to 50% since late August) might negatively affect local sales in the coming months
We reiterate our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏦 Global central banks purchased 15t of gold net in August, vs. the revised net sale of 1t in July, the World Gold Council reports. Kazakhstan net purchased 8t of gold, while no major sellers were recorded in August
In September, the National Bank of Poland (the leading central bank gold buyer in 2024, with net purchases of 90t, per official data) confirmed that it would be raising its target gold share within its international reserves from 20% to 30%. In our view, this is a long-term positive factor for gold demand as global central banks tend to diversify their holdings. Some market participants estimate that, in 2025, the share of gold in global central bank reserves surpassed that of U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we consider its fundamentally reasonable level; however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
🏦 Global central banks purchased 15t of gold net in August, vs. the revised net sale of 1t in July, the World Gold Council reports. Kazakhstan net purchased 8t of gold, while no major sellers were recorded in August
In September, the National Bank of Poland (the leading central bank gold buyer in 2024, with net purchases of 90t, per official data) confirmed that it would be raising its target gold share within its international reserves from 20% to 30%. In our view, this is a long-term positive factor for gold demand as global central banks tend to diversify their holdings. Some market participants estimate that, in 2025, the share of gold in global central bank reserves surpassed that of U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we consider its fundamentally reasonable level; however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
Morning Bites
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales gained 16% YoY in August, accelerating from the +9% YoY in July, per government data. According to Rapaport, the positive dynamics were driven by a pick-up in local consumer sentiment and inbound tourism, as well as partly reflected rising gold prices
We reiterate our view that the global diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, amid still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and global trade war concerns
#diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales gained 16% YoY in August, accelerating from the +9% YoY in July, per government data. According to Rapaport, the positive dynamics were driven by a pick-up in local consumer sentiment and inbound tourism, as well as partly reflected rising gold prices
We reiterate our view that the global diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, amid still high midstream inventories, risks to supply discipline in 2025-26 and global trade war concerns
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 10% YoY in September, vs. the 4% YoY gain in August. However, the sales remained below their pre-COVID level (-9% vs. 2019 level). Specifically, in France, car sales were 19% below their 2019 level, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 11% and 4% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 9% below the 2019 level, while Spain figures were 4% higher
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched up YoY last month, but remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 10% YoY in September, vs. the 4% YoY gain in August. However, the sales remained below their pre-COVID level (-9% vs. 2019 level). Specifically, in France, car sales were 19% below their 2019 level, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 11% and 4% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 9% below the 2019 level, while Spain figures were 4% higher
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched up YoY last month, but remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased a near-record 146t of gold net in September, vs. the +53t net seen in August, according to World Gold Council data. The reported inflows were strong across all main regions: North America (+89t), Europe (+37t) and Asia (+18t). Overall, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 758t net (~12% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, as well as persisting geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2H25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased a near-record 146t of gold net in September, vs. the +53t net seen in August, according to World Gold Council data. The reported inflows were strong across all main regions: North America (+89t), Europe (+37t) and Asia (+18t). Overall, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 758t net (~12% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, as well as persisting geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2H25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold