Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output inched down 1% YoY in August, vs. the 4% YoY drop in July, per NBS data. The recent production declines are likely related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Although local crude steel supply dropped 3% YoY in 8mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were up 11% YoY over the period, still weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 11% YoY in August, after the 8% YoY decline in July, and were down 54% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 20% YoY in August (-72% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also plunged 20% YoY in August (-63% vs. 2021), while property completions fell 21% YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output inched down 1% YoY in August, vs. the 4% YoY drop in July, per NBS data. The recent production declines are likely related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Although local crude steel supply dropped 3% YoY in 8mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were up 11% YoY over the period, still weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 11% YoY in August, after the 8% YoY decline in July, and were down 54% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 20% YoY in August (-72% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also plunged 20% YoY in August (-63% vs. 2021), while property completions fell 21% YoY
#steel #property
Morning Bites
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were up 14% YoY in August, decelerating from the +29% YoY in July. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports declined 7% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports dropped 38% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 10% of total trading
Despite the positive YoY dynamics in June-August, the Indian diamond trade might be stressed in future months. To recap, the US (~50% of global polished diamond demand) increased import duties on Indian goods up to 50% starting 27 August
We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025 and new trading disruptions
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were up 14% YoY in August, decelerating from the +29% YoY in July. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports declined 7% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports dropped 38% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 10% of total trading
Despite the positive YoY dynamics in June-August, the Indian diamond trade might be stressed in future months. To recap, the US (~50% of global polished diamond demand) increased import duties on Indian goods up to 50% starting 27 August
We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025 and new trading disruptions
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-September was 2.09mnt, up 7.2% vs. the previous ten days, and 7.8% higher YoY. Local steel inventories also rose 5.6% over the period, and were up 5.7% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 10th September), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+1.2% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 2.7% YoY in 8mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025-26. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates.
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-September was 2.09mnt, up 7.2% vs. the previous ten days, and 7.8% higher YoY. Local steel inventories also rose 5.6% over the period, and were up 5.7% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 10th September), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+1.2% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 2.7% YoY in 8mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025-26. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates.
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Signet has reported a 2.0% YoY growth in same-store sales for 2Q25 (April-July), vs. the 2.5% YoY increase in 1Q25. Signet also slightly raised its FY26 sales guidance amid solid YTD performance and management flagging better trends in fashion jewellery heading into the holiday season
Overall, we maintain our cautiously upbeat view on the global diamond market in the longer term, but admit that its recovery might take time, given the still high midstream inventories, soft downstream demand in China and global trade war concerns
#diamonds
💍Signet has reported a 2.0% YoY growth in same-store sales for 2Q25 (April-July), vs. the 2.5% YoY increase in 1Q25. Signet also slightly raised its FY26 sales guidance amid solid YTD performance and management flagging better trends in fashion jewellery heading into the holiday season
Overall, we maintain our cautiously upbeat view on the global diamond market in the longer term, but admit that its recovery might take time, given the still high midstream inventories, soft downstream demand in China and global trade war concerns
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 16% YoY in August (vs. the +15% YoY in July)
📌China’s new ICE car sales rose 8% YoY in August (vs. the +5 YoY in July). Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) also grew 8% YoY. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals, if the positive trend in registrations persists. We also note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 27% YoY in August, in-line with July's dynamics. Specifically, local BEV sales (65% of total EV registrations) gained 41% YoY, while PHEVs added 8% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 16% YoY in August (vs. the +15% YoY in July)
📌China’s new ICE car sales rose 8% YoY in August (vs. the +5 YoY in July). Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) also grew 8% YoY. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals, if the positive trend in registrations persists. We also note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 27% YoY in August, in-line with July's dynamics. Specifically, local BEV sales (65% of total EV registrations) gained 41% YoY, while PHEVs added 8% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Morning Bites
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output rose 6% YoY in July, vs. the 3% YoY growth in June, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production was flat YoY, vs. the +3% YoY in June
According to Eskom (which controls ~80% of South African electricity supply) it does not expect power cuts from September 2025 to March 2026, unless any major breakdowns occur — potentially a supportive factor for local miners’ output. However, according to some market participants’ estimates, Africa’s PGM output is still projected to fall to ~4.8mnoz in 2025 (vs. ~5.1mnoz last year) amid persisting operational headwinds
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output rose 6% YoY in July, vs. the 3% YoY growth in June, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production was flat YoY, vs. the +3% YoY in June
According to Eskom (which controls ~80% of South African electricity supply) it does not expect power cuts from September 2025 to March 2026, unless any major breakdowns occur — potentially a supportive factor for local miners’ output. However, according to some market participants’ estimates, Africa’s PGM output is still projected to fall to ~4.8mnoz in 2025 (vs. ~5.1mnoz last year) amid persisting operational headwinds
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
Morning Bites
📉China’s output of aluminium products dropped 5% YoY to 5.5mnt in August, vs. the -2% YoY in July. In our view, the expansion of the grid and new energy sector in China (~60% of global consumption), combined with the Al output cap in China, remain among key factors, bolstering Al fundamentals in the medium term
🥉China's output of copper products jumped 15% YoY in August to 2.2mnt, vs. the +14% YoY in July. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t in the coming quarters). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
📉China’s output of aluminium products dropped 5% YoY to 5.5mnt in August, vs. the -2% YoY in July. In our view, the expansion of the grid and new energy sector in China (~60% of global consumption), combined with the Al output cap in China, remain among key factors, bolstering Al fundamentals in the medium term
🥉China's output of copper products jumped 15% YoY in August to 2.2mnt, vs. the +14% YoY in July. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t in the coming quarters). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output increased 1.2% YoY in August, vs. the revised increase of 1.0% YoY in July, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) increased 1.3% YoY last month, while ex. China output was up only 0.9% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China are likely to add further support to Al, which we forecast to reach USD 3,000/t in 2026
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 44.1mnt in 8mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output increased 1.2% YoY in August, vs. the revised increase of 1.0% YoY in July, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) increased 1.3% YoY last month, while ex. China output was up only 0.9% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China are likely to add further support to Al, which we forecast to reach USD 3,000/t in 2026
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 44.1mnt in 8mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
#aluminium
Morning Bites
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output was flat YoY in July, after the 6% YoY drop in June, per INE data. Meanwhile, according to Mining Minister, Chile is still on track to meet its 2025 Cu target of ~5.6mnt (modest 1-2% YoY increase)
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output rose 2% YoY in July, vs. the 7% YoY gain in June. To recap, Peru's top mining association, SNMPE, expects the country's 2025 copper output to hit ~2.80mnt, which is broadly in-line with the 2.74mnt seen in 2024. Meanwhile, in 7mo25, Peru's copper production reached 1.57mnt, being up 3.4% YoY
The joint production of Chile and Peru (~24% and ~12% of global Cu supply, respectively) was up 1% YoY in July, as growth in Peruvian output was offset by the slowdown in Chile’s supply growth
We maintain our bullish view on copper, given strong demand perspectives and supply risks amid recent outages at several major mines (e.g Grasberg, Kakula and El Tentiente)
#copper
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output was flat YoY in July, after the 6% YoY drop in June, per INE data. Meanwhile, according to Mining Minister, Chile is still on track to meet its 2025 Cu target of ~5.6mnt (modest 1-2% YoY increase)
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output rose 2% YoY in July, vs. the 7% YoY gain in June. To recap, Peru's top mining association, SNMPE, expects the country's 2025 copper output to hit ~2.80mnt, which is broadly in-line with the 2.74mnt seen in 2024. Meanwhile, in 7mo25, Peru's copper production reached 1.57mnt, being up 3.4% YoY
The joint production of Chile and Peru (~24% and ~12% of global Cu supply, respectively) was up 1% YoY in July, as growth in Peruvian output was offset by the slowdown in Chile’s supply growth
We maintain our bullish view on copper, given strong demand perspectives and supply risks amid recent outages at several major mines (e.g Grasberg, Kakula and El Tentiente)
#copper
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output was flat YoY in August at 145mnt, vs. the 1% YoY decline in July, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (53% of global crude steel supply) dropped 1% YoY (being -3% YoY in 8mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA data. Specifically, Russian and EU supply dropped 5% YoY and 3% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production rose 3% YoY, while Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 13% YoY, also being up 10% YoY on 8mo25 basis
To recap, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. Per market participants, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply. In our view, this is likely to cool surging Chinese steel exports and support global prices in late-2025 or 2026
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output was flat YoY in August at 145mnt, vs. the 1% YoY decline in July, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (53% of global crude steel supply) dropped 1% YoY (being -3% YoY in 8mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA data. Specifically, Russian and EU supply dropped 5% YoY and 3% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production rose 3% YoY, while Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 13% YoY, also being up 10% YoY on 8mo25 basis
To recap, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. Per market participants, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply. In our view, this is likely to cool surging Chinese steel exports and support global prices in late-2025 or 2026
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🥉Global mined copper production increased 5.6% YoY in July, vs. the revised gain of 3.1% YoY in June, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. The figure was also up 3.4% YoY on a 7mo25 basis, mainly driven by growth in Peru (+3.3% YoY) and the DRC (+11.8% YoY). However, positive production dynamics in further months will be limited, in our view, given the recent fatal accident at the El Tentiente mine (~2.0% of global supply) and huge Grasberg mine (~3.5% of global supply)
Apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow, being up 5.9% YoY in 7mo25, mainly driven by China (+8.9% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production increased 5.6% YoY in July, vs. the revised gain of 3.1% YoY in June, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. The figure was also up 3.4% YoY on a 7mo25 basis, mainly driven by growth in Peru (+3.3% YoY) and the DRC (+11.8% YoY). However, positive production dynamics in further months will be limited, in our view, given the recent fatal accident at the El Tentiente mine (~2.0% of global supply) and huge Grasberg mine (~3.5% of global supply)
Apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow, being up 5.9% YoY in 7mo25, mainly driven by China (+8.9% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Russia’s gold output rose 6.8% YoY in August, reversing from the 1.2% YoY decline in July, per Rosstat data. Overall, the country’s gold production for 8mo25 was up 4.6% YoY. Russia accounts for ~10% of the world's mined gold supply
We maintain our view that gold is trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), but we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2025-26, given steady demand from global central banks, continuous inflows into ETFs, as well as geopolitical tensions
#gold
📈Russia’s gold output rose 6.8% YoY in August, reversing from the 1.2% YoY decline in July, per Rosstat data. Overall, the country’s gold production for 8mo25 was up 4.6% YoY. Russia accounts for ~10% of the world's mined gold supply
We maintain our view that gold is trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), but we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2025-26, given steady demand from global central banks, continuous inflows into ETFs, as well as geopolitical tensions
#gold
Morning Bites (part 3)
⛏️ Freeport McMoran expects ~35% lower copper output at Grasberg in 2026, compared with its previous estimates, amid the recent fatal accident, the company reports. To recap, Freeport’s previous production guidance for the site in 2026 was ~770kt of Cu. Thus, the 35% decline implies additional ~1% deficit to the market balance in 2026
Grasberg is one of the world’s largest copper and gold mines, accounting for >3% of global mined Cu output. Even with a gradual restart, the anticipated supply drop will additionally affect already tight global Cu supply and support prices, which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t in 1H26 in our base-case scenario
#copper
⛏️ Freeport McMoran expects ~35% lower copper output at Grasberg in 2026, compared with its previous estimates, amid the recent fatal accident, the company reports. To recap, Freeport’s previous production guidance for the site in 2026 was ~770kt of Cu. Thus, the 35% decline implies additional ~1% deficit to the market balance in 2026
Grasberg is one of the world’s largest copper and gold mines, accounting for >3% of global mined Cu output. Even with a gradual restart, the anticipated supply drop will additionally affect already tight global Cu supply and support prices, which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t in 1H26 in our base-case scenario
#copper
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-September was 2.07mnt, down 0.6% vs. the previous ten days, but 4.2% higher YoY. Local steel inventories also fell 3.4% over the period, and were down 2.3% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 20th September), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+1.3% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 2.7% YoY in 8mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025-26. To recap, these measures might affect up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-September was 2.07mnt, down 0.6% vs. the previous ten days, but 4.2% higher YoY. Local steel inventories also fell 3.4% over the period, and were down 2.3% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 20th September), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+1.3% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 2.7% YoY in 8mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025-26. To recap, these measures might affect up to 5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China increased 23% YoY in August, accelerating from the 5% YoY expansion in July, per NBS data. The figure was also up 48% YoY in 8mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure jumped 26% YoY in August (vs. the -1% YoY in July), being up 14% YoY on 8mo25 basis
Although State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically, the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China increased 23% YoY in August, accelerating from the 5% YoY expansion in July, per NBS data. The figure was also up 48% YoY in 8mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure jumped 26% YoY in August (vs. the -1% YoY in July), being up 14% YoY on 8mo25 basis
Although State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically, the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium