Morning Bites
🚘US light vehicle sales rose 2% YoY in August, slower than the 8% YoY increase for July. Despite the gain, volumes remained 13% below pre-Covid 2019 levels, with EVs driving most of the growth ahead of expiring subsidies
To remind readers, the US Congress has recently approved new budget legislation that is too eliminate existing USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, by the end of September 2025. In our view, this move would negatively affect BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. However, this is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals, in our view: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
🚘US light vehicle sales rose 2% YoY in August, slower than the 8% YoY increase for July. Despite the gain, volumes remained 13% below pre-Covid 2019 levels, with EVs driving most of the growth ahead of expiring subsidies
To remind readers, the US Congress has recently approved new budget legislation that is too eliminate existing USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, by the end of September 2025. In our view, this move would negatively affect BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. However, this is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals, in our view: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for August (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports were flat YoY in August, while remaining at historical highs, after the 28% YoY gain in July amid persistently soft domestic demand. According to Reuters, Beijing aims to cut local steel output in 2025-26, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year. On our numbers, a 2-3% output cut could normalise abnormal Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 11% YoY in 8mo25)
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 7% YoY in August, vs. the 23% YoY decline in July, amid the slowdown in demand and cheaper domestic prices, according to Reuters. However, Chinese production might be subdued in coming months given the closures at Shanxi mines in late August
#coal#steel
🔗China’s net finished steel exports were flat YoY in August, while remaining at historical highs, after the 28% YoY gain in July amid persistently soft domestic demand. According to Reuters, Beijing aims to cut local steel output in 2025-26, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year. On our numbers, a 2-3% output cut could normalise abnormal Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 11% YoY in 8mo25)
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 7% YoY in August, vs. the 23% YoY decline in July, amid the slowdown in demand and cheaper domestic prices, according to Reuters. However, Chinese production might be subdued in coming months given the closures at Shanxi mines in late August
#coal#steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 53t of gold net in August, vs. the +23t net seen in July, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the inflows were recorded in North America (+37t) and Europe (+21t). Overall, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 612t net (~10% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, the expected additional US fed rate cuts in 2H25, as well as geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2H25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 53t of gold net in August, vs. the +23t net seen in July, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the inflows were recorded in North America (+37t) and Europe (+21t). Overall, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 612t net (~10% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, the expected additional US fed rate cuts in 2H25, as well as geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2H25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-August was 1.95mnt, down 7.9% vs. the previous ten days, but 3.3% higher YoY. Local steel inventories declined 4.4% over the period, but were up 3.0% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 31th August), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+1.0% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.1% YoY in 7mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025-26. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-August was 1.95mnt, down 7.9% vs. the previous ten days, but 3.3% higher YoY. Local steel inventories declined 4.4% over the period, but were up 3.0% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 31th August), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+1.0% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.1% YoY in 7mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025-26. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏦 The PBoC purchased 2t of gold in August, flat from April 2025 and the 10th month of purchasing in a row, according to official data. Per various industry sources, the PBoC reports only visible gold inflows, excluding significant volumes purchased through non-public organisations and monetary gold. Specifically, the official global central banks’ purchases reflect only a third of real demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2H25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#gold
🏦 The PBoC purchased 2t of gold in August, flat from April 2025 and the 10th month of purchasing in a row, according to official data. Per various industry sources, the PBoC reports only visible gold inflows, excluding significant volumes purchased through non-public organisations and monetary gold. Specifically, the official global central banks’ purchases reflect only a third of real demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2H25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
⛏️ CATL is expected to resume production imminently at its Jianxiawo/Yichun lithium mine in Jiangxi, after a temporary shutdown caused by the license expiry on 9 August, the Securities Times reports, citing sources close to the matter
The mine accounted for ~3% of global lithium supply in 2024. Overall, we remain cautious on lithium, as the global Li market remains in material surplus (8% of demand in 2024, and ~6% in 2025F excluding the CATL’s accident). We also recap that lithium carbonate 90%-ile cash cost was reported at ~USD 9,000/t in 2024
#lithium #EVs
⛏️ CATL is expected to resume production imminently at its Jianxiawo/Yichun lithium mine in Jiangxi, after a temporary shutdown caused by the license expiry on 9 August, the Securities Times reports, citing sources close to the matter
The mine accounted for ~3% of global lithium supply in 2024. Overall, we remain cautious on lithium, as the global Li market remains in material surplus (8% of demand in 2024, and ~6% in 2025F excluding the CATL’s accident). We also recap that lithium carbonate 90%-ile cash cost was reported at ~USD 9,000/t in 2024
#lithium #EVs
Morning Bites (part 3)
⛏️ Freeport has temporarily suspended operations at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, following an underground incident involving a flow of wet material that blocked key access routes, according to a company press release. Rescue efforts are underway, and all workers are reported safe
Grasberg is one of the world’s largest copper and gold mines, accounting for ~3-4% of global mined copper supply. Even a short-term disruption at the site could further tighten the already constrained copper market and lend additional support to prices, in our view — especially when combined with the suspension of Kakula’s underground operations in late-May (~1.5% of global output), along with the recent fatal accident at El Tentiente mine (~2.0% of global supply)
#copper
⛏️ Freeport has temporarily suspended operations at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, following an underground incident involving a flow of wet material that blocked key access routes, according to a company press release. Rescue efforts are underway, and all workers are reported safe
Grasberg is one of the world’s largest copper and gold mines, accounting for ~3-4% of global mined copper supply. Even a short-term disruption at the site could further tighten the already constrained copper market and lend additional support to prices, in our view — especially when combined with the suspension of Kakula’s underground operations in late-May (~1.5% of global output), along with the recent fatal accident at El Tentiente mine (~2.0% of global supply)
#copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 13% YoY in August (domestic + export), decelerating from the +25% YoY in July, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 15% YoY (still -38% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that the local real estate sector is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025-26 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in late-2025 or 2026, in our view
#steel
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 13% YoY in August (domestic + export), decelerating from the +25% YoY in July, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 15% YoY (still -38% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that the local real estate sector is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025-26 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in late-2025 or 2026, in our view
#steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 4% YoY in August, vs. the 2% YoY gain in July. Sales remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-28% vs. August 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 32% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 25% and 34% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 10% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were 18% beneath the 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched up YoY last month, but remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 4% YoY in August, vs. the 2% YoY gain in July. Sales remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-28% vs. August 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 32% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 25% and 34% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 10% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were 18% beneath the 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched up YoY last month, but remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites
💎US jewellery sales inched up 1% YoY in July, vs. the -1% YoY seen in June, IDEX reports, citing local Department of Commerce data. According to the agency, the modest increase largely reflects a rush by exporters to get their goods into the US before the tariff deadlines, and retailers stockpiling for the same reason, which offset low consumer demand
We reiterate our view that the global diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025
#diamonds
💎US jewellery sales inched up 1% YoY in July, vs. the -1% YoY seen in June, IDEX reports, citing local Department of Commerce data. According to the agency, the modest increase largely reflects a rush by exporters to get their goods into the US before the tariff deadlines, and retailers stockpiling for the same reason, which offset low consumer demand
We reiterate our view that the global diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025
#diamonds
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for August (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output inched down 1% YoY in August, vs. the 4% YoY drop in July, per NBS data. The recent production declines are likely related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Although local crude steel supply dropped 3% YoY in 8mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were up 11% YoY over the period, still weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 11% YoY in August, after the 8% YoY decline in July, and were down 54% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 20% YoY in August (-72% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also plunged 20% YoY in August (-63% vs. 2021), while property completions fell 21% YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output inched down 1% YoY in August, vs. the 4% YoY drop in July, per NBS data. The recent production declines are likely related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Although local crude steel supply dropped 3% YoY in 8mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were up 11% YoY over the period, still weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 11% YoY in August, after the 8% YoY decline in July, and were down 54% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 20% YoY in August (-72% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also plunged 20% YoY in August (-63% vs. 2021), while property completions fell 21% YoY
#steel #property
Morning Bites
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were up 14% YoY in August, decelerating from the +29% YoY in July. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports declined 7% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports dropped 38% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 10% of total trading
Despite the positive YoY dynamics in June-August, the Indian diamond trade might be stressed in future months. To recap, the US (~50% of global polished diamond demand) increased import duties on Indian goods up to 50% starting 27 August
We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025 and new trading disruptions
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were up 14% YoY in August, decelerating from the +29% YoY in July. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports declined 7% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports dropped 38% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 10% of total trading
Despite the positive YoY dynamics in June-August, the Indian diamond trade might be stressed in future months. To recap, the US (~50% of global polished diamond demand) increased import duties on Indian goods up to 50% starting 27 August
We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025 and new trading disruptions
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-September was 2.09mnt, up 7.2% vs. the previous ten days, and 7.8% higher YoY. Local steel inventories also rose 5.6% over the period, and were up 5.7% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 10th September), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+1.2% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 2.7% YoY in 8mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025-26. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates.
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-September was 2.09mnt, up 7.2% vs. the previous ten days, and 7.8% higher YoY. Local steel inventories also rose 5.6% over the period, and were up 5.7% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 10th September), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+1.2% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 2.7% YoY in 8mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025-26. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates.
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Signet has reported a 2.0% YoY growth in same-store sales for 2Q25 (April-July), vs. the 2.5% YoY increase in 1Q25. Signet also slightly raised its FY26 sales guidance amid solid YTD performance and management flagging better trends in fashion jewellery heading into the holiday season
Overall, we maintain our cautiously upbeat view on the global diamond market in the longer term, but admit that its recovery might take time, given the still high midstream inventories, soft downstream demand in China and global trade war concerns
#diamonds
💍Signet has reported a 2.0% YoY growth in same-store sales for 2Q25 (April-July), vs. the 2.5% YoY increase in 1Q25. Signet also slightly raised its FY26 sales guidance amid solid YTD performance and management flagging better trends in fashion jewellery heading into the holiday season
Overall, we maintain our cautiously upbeat view on the global diamond market in the longer term, but admit that its recovery might take time, given the still high midstream inventories, soft downstream demand in China and global trade war concerns
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 16% YoY in August (vs. the +15% YoY in July)
📌China’s new ICE car sales rose 8% YoY in August (vs. the +5 YoY in July). Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) also grew 8% YoY. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals, if the positive trend in registrations persists. We also note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 27% YoY in August, in-line with July's dynamics. Specifically, local BEV sales (65% of total EV registrations) gained 41% YoY, while PHEVs added 8% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 16% YoY in August (vs. the +15% YoY in July)
📌China’s new ICE car sales rose 8% YoY in August (vs. the +5 YoY in July). Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) also grew 8% YoY. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals, if the positive trend in registrations persists. We also note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 27% YoY in August, in-line with July's dynamics. Specifically, local BEV sales (65% of total EV registrations) gained 41% YoY, while PHEVs added 8% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Morning Bites
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output rose 6% YoY in July, vs. the 3% YoY growth in June, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production was flat YoY, vs. the +3% YoY in June
According to Eskom (which controls ~80% of South African electricity supply) it does not expect power cuts from September 2025 to March 2026, unless any major breakdowns occur — potentially a supportive factor for local miners’ output. However, according to some market participants’ estimates, Africa’s PGM output is still projected to fall to ~4.8mnoz in 2025 (vs. ~5.1mnoz last year) amid persisting operational headwinds
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output rose 6% YoY in July, vs. the 3% YoY growth in June, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production was flat YoY, vs. the +3% YoY in June
According to Eskom (which controls ~80% of South African electricity supply) it does not expect power cuts from September 2025 to March 2026, unless any major breakdowns occur — potentially a supportive factor for local miners’ output. However, according to some market participants’ estimates, Africa’s PGM output is still projected to fall to ~4.8mnoz in 2025 (vs. ~5.1mnoz last year) amid persisting operational headwinds
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold