Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 2.7% YoY in July, vs. the revised increase of 3.4% YoY in June, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (61% of global Al output) increased 4.3% YoY last month, while ex. China output was up only 0.4% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, as well as the expected additional US Fed rate cuts in 2H25, are likely to add further support to Al, which we forecast to reach USD 2,700-2,900/t by late 2025 - early 2026
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 43.9mnt in 7mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 2.7% YoY in July, vs. the revised increase of 3.4% YoY in June, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (61% of global Al output) increased 4.3% YoY last month, while ex. China output was up only 0.4% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, as well as the expected additional US Fed rate cuts in 2H25, are likely to add further support to Al, which we forecast to reach USD 2,700-2,900/t by late 2025 - early 2026
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 43.9mnt in 7mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
#aluminium
Week ahead data releases in M&M
The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several major M&M names are still due to release their 2Q/1H25 financials. Of those companies reporting this week, we are more bullish than the consensus on S32’s EBITDA
This week we also expect to see EU car registrations data for July 2025
#reporting_season
The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several major M&M names are still due to release their 2Q/1H25 financials. Of those companies reporting this week, we are more bullish than the consensus on S32’s EBITDA
This week we also expect to see EU car registrations data for July 2025
#reporting_season
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output declined 1% YoY, to 150mnt in July, vs. the 6% YoY fall in June, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (53% of global crude steel supply in July) dropped 4% YoY (being -3% YoY in 7mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA data. Specifically, Russia and EU supply dropped 2% YoY and 7% YoY last month, though we believe Russia’s actual decline was sharper. Meanwhile, US production rose 5% YoY, while Indian output (~9% of global steel supply) gained 14% YoY, also being up 10% YoY on 7mo25 basis
We remind readers that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might mean a decline 2-5% YoY, per market estimates), which is likely to cool surging Chinese steel exports and support global prices in late-2025 or 2026, we believe
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output declined 1% YoY, to 150mnt in July, vs. the 6% YoY fall in June, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (53% of global crude steel supply in July) dropped 4% YoY (being -3% YoY in 7mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA data. Specifically, Russia and EU supply dropped 2% YoY and 7% YoY last month, though we believe Russia’s actual decline was sharper. Meanwhile, US production rose 5% YoY, while Indian output (~9% of global steel supply) gained 14% YoY, also being up 10% YoY on 7mo25 basis
We remind readers that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might mean a decline 2-5% YoY, per market estimates), which is likely to cool surging Chinese steel exports and support global prices in late-2025 or 2026, we believe
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China rose 5% YoY in July, decelerating from the +22% YoY in June, per NBS data. The figure was also up 52% YoY in 7mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure slid 1% YoY in July (vs. the +4% YoY in June), but was up 12% YoY on 7mo25 basis
Although State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically, the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China rose 5% YoY in July, decelerating from the +22% YoY in June, per NBS data. The figure was also up 52% YoY in 7mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure slid 1% YoY in July (vs. the +4% YoY in June), but was up 12% YoY on 7mo25 basis
Although State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically, the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
🥈Solar panel installations in China dropped a further 57% YoY in July, accelerating from the -31% YoY in June, per NEA data, as some key subsidies for local solar projects expired in early-June, and investment in grid infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the surging installations of renewable energy capacity in the last several years. However, the figure was still up 76% YoY in 7mo25
Meanwhile, overall photovoltaic cell output in China surged 116% YoY in July, accelerating from the 35% YoY gain in June (and was up 42% YoY on 7mo25 basis)
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
🥈Solar panel installations in China dropped a further 57% YoY in July, accelerating from the -31% YoY in June, per NEA data, as some key subsidies for local solar projects expired in early-June, and investment in grid infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the surging installations of renewable energy capacity in the last several years. However, the figure was still up 76% YoY in 7mo25
Meanwhile, overall photovoltaic cell output in China surged 116% YoY in July, accelerating from the 35% YoY gain in June (and was up 42% YoY on 7mo25 basis)
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production increased 2.7% YoY in June, vs. the revised gain of 5.3% YoY in May, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. The figure was also up 2.7% YoY on 1H25 basis, mainly driven by growth in Peru (+3.6% YoY) and the DRC (+9.5% YoY). However, positive production dynamics in further months will be limited, in our view, given the suspension of Kakula’s underground operations in late-May (~1.5% of global and ~10% of DRC’s Cu output), along with the recent fatal accident at El Tentiente mine (~2.0% of global supply)
Apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow, being up 4.8% YoY in 1H25, mainly driven by China (+7.5% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production increased 2.7% YoY in June, vs. the revised gain of 5.3% YoY in May, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. The figure was also up 2.7% YoY on 1H25 basis, mainly driven by growth in Peru (+3.6% YoY) and the DRC (+9.5% YoY). However, positive production dynamics in further months will be limited, in our view, given the suspension of Kakula’s underground operations in late-May (~1.5% of global and ~10% of DRC’s Cu output), along with the recent fatal accident at El Tentiente mine (~2.0% of global supply)
Apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow, being up 4.8% YoY in 1H25, mainly driven by China (+7.5% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-August was 2.12mnt, up 2.0% vs. the previous ten days, and 6.1% higher YoY. Local steel inventories rose 4.0% over the period, but were down 4.8% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 20th August), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+0.9% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.1% YoY in 7mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-August was 2.12mnt, up 2.0% vs. the previous ten days, and 6.1% higher YoY. Local steel inventories rose 4.0% over the period, but were down 4.8% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 20th August), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+0.9% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.1% YoY in 7mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
📉Russia’s gold output fell 1.2% YoY in July, reversing from the +9.3% YoY in June, per Rosstat data. Overall, the country’s gold production in 7mo25 was up 4.2% YoY. Russia accounts for ~10% of the world's mined gold supply
We maintain our view that gold is trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), but we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2025, given steady inflows and geopolitical tensions
#gold
📉Russia’s gold output fell 1.2% YoY in July, reversing from the +9.3% YoY in June, per Rosstat data. Overall, the country’s gold production in 7mo25 was up 4.2% YoY. Russia accounts for ~10% of the world's mined gold supply
We maintain our view that gold is trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), but we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2025, given steady inflows and geopolitical tensions
#gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
⛏️China is capping coal output to support prices, Reuters reports, citing representatives of local mining companies and industry analysts. Specifically, in Shanxi — China’s top-coal producing province — 54 out of 153 coking coal mines (with a combined capacity of 61mnt, or 5.5% of global coking supply and 17% of global exports in 2024) suspended production or cut output, according to Mysteel agency
The decision was also linked to safety and environmental controls ahead of China’s large scale military parade on 3 September (a recurring practice during major national events)
Overall, the supply cap might add some support to global coking coal prices, at least in the short term, we believe. We also remind readers that coking coal (HCC FOB Australia) is trading below the 90%-ile cash cost (~210 USD/t in 2025, on our numbers)
#coal
⛏️China is capping coal output to support prices, Reuters reports, citing representatives of local mining companies and industry analysts. Specifically, in Shanxi — China’s top-coal producing province — 54 out of 153 coking coal mines (with a combined capacity of 61mnt, or 5.5% of global coking supply and 17% of global exports in 2024) suspended production or cut output, according to Mysteel agency
The decision was also linked to safety and environmental controls ahead of China’s large scale military parade on 3 September (a recurring practice during major national events)
Overall, the supply cap might add some support to global coking coal prices, at least in the short term, we believe. We also remind readers that coking coal (HCC FOB Australia) is trading below the 90%-ile cash cost (~210 USD/t in 2025, on our numbers)
#coal
Morning Bites
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations increased 6% YoY in July, reversing the decline of 5% YoY in June, per ACEA data. However, the figure in July was 19% lower than the pre-Covid level in 2019. In particular, catalyst-containing car sales (+1% YoY in July) were broadly flat YoY, while the overall growth was mainly driven by stronger BEV car registrations (+33% YoY in July)
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, the broadly expected US Fed rate cuts in 2H25, as well as the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (since late-September 2025), might bolster PGM market fundamentals
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations increased 6% YoY in July, reversing the decline of 5% YoY in June, per ACEA data. However, the figure in July was 19% lower than the pre-Covid level in 2019. In particular, catalyst-containing car sales (+1% YoY in July) were broadly flat YoY, while the overall growth was mainly driven by stronger BEV car registrations (+33% YoY in July)
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, the broadly expected US Fed rate cuts in 2H25, as well as the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (since late-September 2025), might bolster PGM market fundamentals
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
Morning Bites
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales increased 9% YoY in July, after the 6% YoY gain in June, per government data. According to Rapaport, the rise was partly due to rising gold prices, as well as a slight recovery in demand for gemstone jewellery
We reiterate our view that the global diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025
#diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales increased 9% YoY in July, after the 6% YoY gain in June, per government data. According to Rapaport, the rise was partly due to rising gold prices, as well as a slight recovery in demand for gemstone jewellery
We reiterate our view that the global diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed some improvement in August. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (vs. 49.8 in July), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7 (from 48.0)
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China inched up to 49.4 (vs. 49.3 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 59.3 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, global manufacturing PMI readings improved in August: Eurozone and China’s Caixin PMI moved into expansion, while the US showed a slower pace of contraction. India remains the standout with a robust PMI
#PMIs
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed some improvement in August. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (vs. 49.8 in July), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7 (from 48.0)
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China inched up to 49.4 (vs. 49.3 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 59.3 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, global manufacturing PMI readings improved in August: Eurozone and China’s Caixin PMI moved into expansion, while the US showed a slower pace of contraction. India remains the standout with a robust PMI
#PMIs
Morning Bites
🏦 Global central banks purchased 10t of gold net in July, vs. the +38t in June, marking the 26th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports
Overall, July saw relatively modest central bank inflows, led by a 3t purchase by Kazakstan. We recap that official central bank purchases represent only one third, give or take, of the demand from real government institutions, per WGC estimates
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz); however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
🏦 Global central banks purchased 10t of gold net in July, vs. the +38t in June, marking the 26th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports
Overall, July saw relatively modest central bank inflows, led by a 3t purchase by Kazakstan. We recap that official central bank purchases represent only one third, give or take, of the demand from real government institutions, per WGC estimates
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz); however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
Morning Bites
🚘US light vehicle sales rose 2% YoY in August, slower than the 8% YoY increase for July. Despite the gain, volumes remained 13% below pre-Covid 2019 levels, with EVs driving most of the growth ahead of expiring subsidies
To remind readers, the US Congress has recently approved new budget legislation that is too eliminate existing USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, by the end of September 2025. In our view, this move would negatively affect BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. However, this is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals, in our view: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
🚘US light vehicle sales rose 2% YoY in August, slower than the 8% YoY increase for July. Despite the gain, volumes remained 13% below pre-Covid 2019 levels, with EVs driving most of the growth ahead of expiring subsidies
To remind readers, the US Congress has recently approved new budget legislation that is too eliminate existing USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, by the end of September 2025. In our view, this move would negatively affect BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. However, this is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals, in our view: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for August (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports were flat YoY in August, while remaining at historical highs, after the 28% YoY gain in July amid persistently soft domestic demand. According to Reuters, Beijing aims to cut local steel output in 2025-26, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year. On our numbers, a 2-3% output cut could normalise abnormal Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 11% YoY in 8mo25)
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 7% YoY in August, vs. the 23% YoY decline in July, amid the slowdown in demand and cheaper domestic prices, according to Reuters. However, Chinese production might be subdued in coming months given the closures at Shanxi mines in late August
#coal#steel
🔗China’s net finished steel exports were flat YoY in August, while remaining at historical highs, after the 28% YoY gain in July amid persistently soft domestic demand. According to Reuters, Beijing aims to cut local steel output in 2025-26, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year. On our numbers, a 2-3% output cut could normalise abnormal Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 11% YoY in 8mo25)
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 7% YoY in August, vs. the 23% YoY decline in July, amid the slowdown in demand and cheaper domestic prices, according to Reuters. However, Chinese production might be subdued in coming months given the closures at Shanxi mines in late August
#coal#steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 53t of gold net in August, vs. the +23t net seen in July, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the inflows were recorded in North America (+37t) and Europe (+21t). Overall, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 612t net (~10% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, the expected additional US fed rate cuts in 2H25, as well as geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2H25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 53t of gold net in August, vs. the +23t net seen in July, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the inflows were recorded in North America (+37t) and Europe (+21t). Overall, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 612t net (~10% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, the expected additional US fed rate cuts in 2H25, as well as geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2H25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold