🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for July (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 4% YoY in July vs. the 9% YoY decline in June, according to NBS data. The recent production declines are likely related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Although local crude steel supply dropped 3% YoY in 7mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were up 13% YoY over the period, still weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 8% YoY in July, after the 7% YoY decline in June, and were down 56% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 15% YoY in July (-73% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans, however, rose 7% YoY in July (-59% vs. 2021), while property completions inched down 29% YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 4% YoY in July vs. the 9% YoY decline in June, according to NBS data. The recent production declines are likely related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Although local crude steel supply dropped 3% YoY in 7mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were up 13% YoY over the period, still weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 8% YoY in July, after the 7% YoY decline in June, and were down 56% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 15% YoY in July (-73% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans, however, rose 7% YoY in July (-59% vs. 2021), while property completions inched down 29% YoY
#steel #property
Week ahead data releases in M&M
The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several major M&M names are still due to release their 2Q/1H25 financials. Of those companies reporting this week, we are generally more conservative than the consensus on miners’ EBITDA (BHP, for instance)
This week is also due to bring the World Steel Association data on global steel supply in July 2025
#reporting_season
The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several major M&M names are still due to release their 2Q/1H25 financials. Of those companies reporting this week, we are generally more conservative than the consensus on miners’ EBITDA (BHP, for instance)
This week is also due to bring the World Steel Association data on global steel supply in July 2025
#reporting_season
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-August was 2.07mnt, up 4.6% vs. the previous ten days, and 3.5% higher YoY. Local steel inventories rose 2.0% over the period, but were down 5.2% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 10th August), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+0.6% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.1% YoY in 7mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-August was 2.07mnt, up 4.6% vs. the previous ten days, and 3.5% higher YoY. Local steel inventories rose 2.0% over the period, but were down 5.2% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 10th August), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+0.6% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.1% YoY in 7mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
⛏️ CATL has temporarily suspended operations at Jianxiawo/Yichun lithium mine, after its mining licence expired on August 9, Reuters reports. According to people familiar with the matter, the mine’s operations are to be ceased for at least three months, as CATL is still in talks with government agencies
On our numbers, the mine accounted for ~3% of global lithium supply in 2024, so its suspension is a favorable factor for the sentiment on the battery metal, especially if mine’s supply disruption persists
However, we remain overall cautious on lithium, as the global Li market remains in material surplus (8% of demand in 2024, and ~6% in 2025F excluding the CATL’s accident). We also recap that lithium carbonate 90%-ile cash cost was reported at ~USD 9,000/t in 2024
#lithium #EVs
⛏️ CATL has temporarily suspended operations at Jianxiawo/Yichun lithium mine, after its mining licence expired on August 9, Reuters reports. According to people familiar with the matter, the mine’s operations are to be ceased for at least three months, as CATL is still in talks with government agencies
On our numbers, the mine accounted for ~3% of global lithium supply in 2024, so its suspension is a favorable factor for the sentiment on the battery metal, especially if mine’s supply disruption persists
However, we remain overall cautious on lithium, as the global Li market remains in material surplus (8% of demand in 2024, and ~6% in 2025F excluding the CATL’s accident). We also recap that lithium carbonate 90%-ile cash cost was reported at ~USD 9,000/t in 2024
#lithium #EVs
Morning Bites
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output dropped 6% YoY in June, after the 9% YoY gain in May, per INE data. According to Reuters, the decline was attributable to lower supply from major Escondida and Collahuasi mines, which fell 33% YoY and 29% YoY in June, respectively
Meanwhile, Chile's state copper commission cut its 2025 production growth estimate for the country to 1.5% YoY (vs. the +3.0% YoY it had earlier expected in May), amid supply disruption risks. To remind readers, Codelco has recently halted production at large El Teniente mine in late August, which might keep production subdued in coming months
We maintain our positive view on copper amid Chile’s long-term and current supply issues (its peak supply is now likely to be in 2027), growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output dropped 6% YoY in June, after the 9% YoY gain in May, per INE data. According to Reuters, the decline was attributable to lower supply from major Escondida and Collahuasi mines, which fell 33% YoY and 29% YoY in June, respectively
Meanwhile, Chile's state copper commission cut its 2025 production growth estimate for the country to 1.5% YoY (vs. the +3.0% YoY it had earlier expected in May), amid supply disruption risks. To remind readers, Codelco has recently halted production at large El Teniente mine in late August, which might keep production subdued in coming months
We maintain our positive view on copper amid Chile’s long-term and current supply issues (its peak supply is now likely to be in 2027), growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output rose 7% YoY in June, reversing from the 5% YoY decline in May. The growth was mainly attributable to improved operations and some capacity extensions at mines run by Chinese companies (e.g Las Bambas), according to MINEM data
To recap, Peru's top mining association, SNMPE, expects the country's 2025 copper output to hit around 2.80mnt, which is broadly in-line with the 2.74mnt seen in 2024. Meanwhile, in 1H25 Peru's copper production reached 1.34mnt, being up 3.5% YoY
The joint production of Chile and Peru (~24% and ~12% of global Cu supply, respectively) was down 2% YoY in June, as growth in Peruvian output was offset by the downturn in Chile’s supply
#copper
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output rose 7% YoY in June, reversing from the 5% YoY decline in May. The growth was mainly attributable to improved operations and some capacity extensions at mines run by Chinese companies (e.g Las Bambas), according to MINEM data
To recap, Peru's top mining association, SNMPE, expects the country's 2025 copper output to hit around 2.80mnt, which is broadly in-line with the 2.74mnt seen in 2024. Meanwhile, in 1H25 Peru's copper production reached 1.34mnt, being up 3.5% YoY
The joint production of Chile and Peru (~24% and ~12% of global Cu supply, respectively) was down 2% YoY in June, as growth in Peruvian output was offset by the downturn in Chile’s supply
#copper
Morning Bites
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales slid 2% YoY in July, reversing from the 13% YoY gain in June, per NBS data
According to Rapaport, China's diamond market was overall quiet in July, while some large retailers reported that sales are stabilising. Meanwhile, the positive dynamics seen in recent months have most likely reflected high gold prices, we believe
We maintain our view that it might take a long time for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories and lagging downstream demand recovery in China
#diamonds
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales slid 2% YoY in July, reversing from the 13% YoY gain in June, per NBS data
According to Rapaport, China's diamond market was overall quiet in July, while some large retailers reported that sales are stabilising. Meanwhile, the positive dynamics seen in recent months have most likely reflected high gold prices, we believe
We maintain our view that it might take a long time for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories and lagging downstream demand recovery in China
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 2.7% YoY in July, vs. the revised increase of 3.4% YoY in June, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (61% of global Al output) increased 4.3% YoY last month, while ex. China output was up only 0.4% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, as well as the expected additional US Fed rate cuts in 2H25, are likely to add further support to Al, which we forecast to reach USD 2,700-2,900/t by late 2025 - early 2026
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 43.9mnt in 7mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 2.7% YoY in July, vs. the revised increase of 3.4% YoY in June, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (61% of global Al output) increased 4.3% YoY last month, while ex. China output was up only 0.4% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, as well as the expected additional US Fed rate cuts in 2H25, are likely to add further support to Al, which we forecast to reach USD 2,700-2,900/t by late 2025 - early 2026
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 43.9mnt in 7mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
#aluminium
Week ahead data releases in M&M
The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several major M&M names are still due to release their 2Q/1H25 financials. Of those companies reporting this week, we are more bullish than the consensus on S32’s EBITDA
This week we also expect to see EU car registrations data for July 2025
#reporting_season
The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several major M&M names are still due to release their 2Q/1H25 financials. Of those companies reporting this week, we are more bullish than the consensus on S32’s EBITDA
This week we also expect to see EU car registrations data for July 2025
#reporting_season
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output declined 1% YoY, to 150mnt in July, vs. the 6% YoY fall in June, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (53% of global crude steel supply in July) dropped 4% YoY (being -3% YoY in 7mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA data. Specifically, Russia and EU supply dropped 2% YoY and 7% YoY last month, though we believe Russia’s actual decline was sharper. Meanwhile, US production rose 5% YoY, while Indian output (~9% of global steel supply) gained 14% YoY, also being up 10% YoY on 7mo25 basis
We remind readers that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might mean a decline 2-5% YoY, per market estimates), which is likely to cool surging Chinese steel exports and support global prices in late-2025 or 2026, we believe
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output declined 1% YoY, to 150mnt in July, vs. the 6% YoY fall in June, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (53% of global crude steel supply in July) dropped 4% YoY (being -3% YoY in 7mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA data. Specifically, Russia and EU supply dropped 2% YoY and 7% YoY last month, though we believe Russia’s actual decline was sharper. Meanwhile, US production rose 5% YoY, while Indian output (~9% of global steel supply) gained 14% YoY, also being up 10% YoY on 7mo25 basis
We remind readers that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might mean a decline 2-5% YoY, per market estimates), which is likely to cool surging Chinese steel exports and support global prices in late-2025 or 2026, we believe
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China rose 5% YoY in July, decelerating from the +22% YoY in June, per NBS data. The figure was also up 52% YoY in 7mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure slid 1% YoY in July (vs. the +4% YoY in June), but was up 12% YoY on 7mo25 basis
Although State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically, the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China rose 5% YoY in July, decelerating from the +22% YoY in June, per NBS data. The figure was also up 52% YoY in 7mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure slid 1% YoY in July (vs. the +4% YoY in June), but was up 12% YoY on 7mo25 basis
Although State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically, the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
🥈Solar panel installations in China dropped a further 57% YoY in July, accelerating from the -31% YoY in June, per NEA data, as some key subsidies for local solar projects expired in early-June, and investment in grid infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the surging installations of renewable energy capacity in the last several years. However, the figure was still up 76% YoY in 7mo25
Meanwhile, overall photovoltaic cell output in China surged 116% YoY in July, accelerating from the 35% YoY gain in June (and was up 42% YoY on 7mo25 basis)
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
🥈Solar panel installations in China dropped a further 57% YoY in July, accelerating from the -31% YoY in June, per NEA data, as some key subsidies for local solar projects expired in early-June, and investment in grid infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the surging installations of renewable energy capacity in the last several years. However, the figure was still up 76% YoY in 7mo25
Meanwhile, overall photovoltaic cell output in China surged 116% YoY in July, accelerating from the 35% YoY gain in June (and was up 42% YoY on 7mo25 basis)
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production increased 2.7% YoY in June, vs. the revised gain of 5.3% YoY in May, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. The figure was also up 2.7% YoY on 1H25 basis, mainly driven by growth in Peru (+3.6% YoY) and the DRC (+9.5% YoY). However, positive production dynamics in further months will be limited, in our view, given the suspension of Kakula’s underground operations in late-May (~1.5% of global and ~10% of DRC’s Cu output), along with the recent fatal accident at El Tentiente mine (~2.0% of global supply)
Apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow, being up 4.8% YoY in 1H25, mainly driven by China (+7.5% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production increased 2.7% YoY in June, vs. the revised gain of 5.3% YoY in May, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. The figure was also up 2.7% YoY on 1H25 basis, mainly driven by growth in Peru (+3.6% YoY) and the DRC (+9.5% YoY). However, positive production dynamics in further months will be limited, in our view, given the suspension of Kakula’s underground operations in late-May (~1.5% of global and ~10% of DRC’s Cu output), along with the recent fatal accident at El Tentiente mine (~2.0% of global supply)
Apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow, being up 4.8% YoY in 1H25, mainly driven by China (+7.5% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-August was 2.12mnt, up 2.0% vs. the previous ten days, and 6.1% higher YoY. Local steel inventories rose 4.0% over the period, but were down 4.8% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 20th August), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+0.9% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.1% YoY in 7mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-August was 2.12mnt, up 2.0% vs. the previous ten days, and 6.1% higher YoY. Local steel inventories rose 4.0% over the period, but were down 4.8% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 20th August), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+0.9% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.1% YoY in 7mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
📉Russia’s gold output fell 1.2% YoY in July, reversing from the +9.3% YoY in June, per Rosstat data. Overall, the country’s gold production in 7mo25 was up 4.2% YoY. Russia accounts for ~10% of the world's mined gold supply
We maintain our view that gold is trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), but we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2025, given steady inflows and geopolitical tensions
#gold
📉Russia’s gold output fell 1.2% YoY in July, reversing from the +9.3% YoY in June, per Rosstat data. Overall, the country’s gold production in 7mo25 was up 4.2% YoY. Russia accounts for ~10% of the world's mined gold supply
We maintain our view that gold is trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), but we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2025, given steady inflows and geopolitical tensions
#gold