Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports were up 28% YoY in July, after the 13% YoY gain in June, amid persistently soft domestic demand. To recap, the Chinese authorities are considering cutting local steel output in 2025, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year. On our numbers, a 2-3% output cut could normalise abnormal Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 13% YoY in 7mo25)
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 23% YoY in July, vs. the 26% YoY decline in June, as ample domestic supply limited import demand. According to Reuters, the MoM improvement is due to hotter weather, which spurred higher air conditioning demand, supporting electricity consumption. Noteworthy, potential government inspections in China's major coal production hubs might lead to supply disruptions, reducing pressure on import volumes
#coal #steel
🔗China’s net finished steel exports were up 28% YoY in July, after the 13% YoY gain in June, amid persistently soft domestic demand. To recap, the Chinese authorities are considering cutting local steel output in 2025, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year. On our numbers, a 2-3% output cut could normalise abnormal Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 13% YoY in 7mo25)
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 23% YoY in July, vs. the 26% YoY decline in June, as ample domestic supply limited import demand. According to Reuters, the MoM improvement is due to hotter weather, which spurred higher air conditioning demand, supporting electricity consumption. Noteworthy, potential government inspections in China's major coal production hubs might lead to supply disruptions, reducing pressure on import volumes
#coal #steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany inched up 2% YoY in July, vs. the 6% YoY drop in June. Sales remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-21% vs. July 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 32% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 23% and 20% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 11% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were 16% beneath the 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched up YoY last month, and remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany inched up 2% YoY in July, vs. the 6% YoY drop in June. Sales remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-21% vs. July 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 32% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 23% and 20% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 11% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were 16% beneath the 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched up YoY last month, and remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘US light vehicle sales rose 8% YoY in July, vs. the -6% YoY seen in June. The figure was marginally below the pre-Covid 2019 level (-2% vs. July 2019). Meanwhile, the US Congress has recently approved new budget legislation that will eliminate existing USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, by the end of September 2025. In our view, this move would negatively affect BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. However, this is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
🚘US light vehicle sales rose 8% YoY in July, vs. the -6% YoY seen in June. The figure was marginally below the pre-Covid 2019 level (-2% vs. July 2019). Meanwhile, the US Congress has recently approved new budget legislation that will eliminate existing USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, by the end of September 2025. In our view, this move would negatively affect BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. However, this is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 23t of gold net in July, vs. the +75t net seen in June, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the inflows were recorded in North America (+13t) and Europe (+11t). Overall, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 559t net (~10% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, the expected additional US fed rate cuts in 2H25, as well as geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2H25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 23t of gold net in July, vs. the +75t net seen in June, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the inflows were recorded in North America (+13t) and Europe (+11t). Overall, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 559t net (~10% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, the expected additional US fed rate cuts in 2H25, as well as geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2H25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to report their 2Q25/1H25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are broadly in-line with the consensus on Barrick’s EBITDA, but less optimistic on Antofagasta’s performance
We also expect to see monthly South African mining data, as well as Chinese industrial production statistics this week
#reporting_season
As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to report their 2Q25/1H25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are broadly in-line with the consensus on Barrick’s EBITDA, but less optimistic on Antofagasta’s performance
We also expect to see monthly South African mining data, as well as Chinese industrial production statistics this week
#reporting_season
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏆Global physical gold demand declined 7% YoY to 893t in 2Q25, vs. the -13% YoY in 1Q25, according to World Gold Council data. Specifically, central bank purchases declined 21% YoY in 2Q25; gold jewellery demand was also down 14% YoY
Meanwhile, total global gold demand was up 11% YoY in 2Q25, amid robust ETF inflows. At the same time, world mined gold output inched up 1% YoY in 2Q25
#gold
🏆Global physical gold demand declined 7% YoY to 893t in 2Q25, vs. the -13% YoY in 1Q25, according to World Gold Council data. Specifically, central bank purchases declined 21% YoY in 2Q25; gold jewellery demand was also down 14% YoY
Meanwhile, total global gold demand was up 11% YoY in 2Q25, amid robust ETF inflows. At the same time, world mined gold output inched up 1% YoY in 2Q25
#gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎LFL rough prices at Petra Diamonds Tender-7 grew 3% vs. the 5-6 combined auction, the company has reported. Specifically, LFL prices in FY25 (ended Jun-25) declined 17% YoY. Despite slight improvement in rough prices vs. the previous tender, revenues were down 49% YoY in fiscal 4Q25 and -33% YoY in FY25
The miner expects to produce 2.4-2.8mnct of rough diamonds in FY26 vs. 2.4mnct in FY25
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world polished demand) might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
#diamonds
💎LFL rough prices at Petra Diamonds Tender-7 grew 3% vs. the 5-6 combined auction, the company has reported. Specifically, LFL prices in FY25 (ended Jun-25) declined 17% YoY. Despite slight improvement in rough prices vs. the previous tender, revenues were down 49% YoY in fiscal 4Q25 and -33% YoY in FY25
The miner expects to produce 2.4-2.8mnct of rough diamonds in FY26 vs. 2.4mnct in FY25
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world polished demand) might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 25% YoY in July (domestic + export), accelerating from the +13% YoY in June, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 17% YoY (still -41% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that the local real estate sector is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in late-2025 or 2026, in our view
#steel
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 25% YoY in July (domestic + export), accelerating from the +13% YoY in June, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 17% YoY (still -41% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that the local real estate sector is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in late-2025 or 2026, in our view
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 15% YoY in July (vs. +14% YoY in June)
📌China’s new ICE car sales rose 5% YoY in July, in line with June. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) also grew 4% YoY. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals, if the positive trend in registrations persists. We also note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 27% YoY in July, also in-line with June's dynamics. Specifically, local BEV sales (64% of total EV registrations) gained 47% YoY, while PHEVs added 3% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 15% YoY in July (vs. +14% YoY in June)
📌China’s new ICE car sales rose 5% YoY in July, in line with June. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) also grew 4% YoY. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals, if the positive trend in registrations persists. We also note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 27% YoY in July, also in-line with June's dynamics. Specifically, local BEV sales (64% of total EV registrations) gained 47% YoY, while PHEVs added 3% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
❤2
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were up 29% YoY in July, accelerating from the +3% YoY in June. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports also rose 16% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports also gained 7% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 8% of total trading
Despite the positive YoY dynamics seen in July, the Indian diamond trade might be stressed in future months, if the new tariff threat materialises. To recap, the US (~50% of global polished diamond demand) plans to increase import duties on Indian goods up to 50% starting 27 August
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were up 29% YoY in July, accelerating from the +3% YoY in June. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports also rose 16% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports also gained 7% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 8% of total trading
Despite the positive YoY dynamics seen in July, the Indian diamond trade might be stressed in future months, if the new tariff threat materialises. To recap, the US (~50% of global polished diamond demand) plans to increase import duties on Indian goods up to 50% starting 27 August
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output rose 3% YoY in June, vs. the 1% YoY decline in May, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production also gained 3% YoY, vs. the +2% YoY in May
To recap, heavy rains disrupted domestic mining output in 1Q25, while the high cost of electricity (Eskom lifted its tariffs a further 13% in early-2025) also affected South African miners’ performance. Nevertheless, further PGM production recovery, if it persists, might lead to normalisation of abnormally high platinum prices, we believe
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output rose 3% YoY in June, vs. the 1% YoY decline in May, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production also gained 3% YoY, vs. the +2% YoY in May
To recap, heavy rains disrupted domestic mining output in 1Q25, while the high cost of electricity (Eskom lifted its tariffs a further 13% in early-2025) also affected South African miners’ performance. Nevertheless, further PGM production recovery, if it persists, might lead to normalisation of abnormally high platinum prices, we believe
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for July (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 4% YoY in July vs. the 9% YoY decline in June, according to NBS data. The recent production declines are likely related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Although local crude steel supply dropped 3% YoY in 7mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were up 13% YoY over the period, still weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 8% YoY in July, after the 7% YoY decline in June, and were down 56% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 15% YoY in July (-73% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans, however, rose 7% YoY in July (-59% vs. 2021), while property completions inched down 29% YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 4% YoY in July vs. the 9% YoY decline in June, according to NBS data. The recent production declines are likely related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Although local crude steel supply dropped 3% YoY in 7mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were up 13% YoY over the period, still weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 8% YoY in July, after the 7% YoY decline in June, and were down 56% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 15% YoY in July (-73% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans, however, rose 7% YoY in July (-59% vs. 2021), while property completions inched down 29% YoY
#steel #property
Week ahead data releases in M&M
The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several major M&M names are still due to release their 2Q/1H25 financials. Of those companies reporting this week, we are generally more conservative than the consensus on miners’ EBITDA (BHP, for instance)
This week is also due to bring the World Steel Association data on global steel supply in July 2025
#reporting_season
The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several major M&M names are still due to release their 2Q/1H25 financials. Of those companies reporting this week, we are generally more conservative than the consensus on miners’ EBITDA (BHP, for instance)
This week is also due to bring the World Steel Association data on global steel supply in July 2025
#reporting_season
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-August was 2.07mnt, up 4.6% vs. the previous ten days, and 3.5% higher YoY. Local steel inventories rose 2.0% over the period, but were down 5.2% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 10th August), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+0.6% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.1% YoY in 7mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-August was 2.07mnt, up 4.6% vs. the previous ten days, and 3.5% higher YoY. Local steel inventories rose 2.0% over the period, but were down 5.2% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 10th August), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+0.6% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.1% YoY in 7mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
⛏️ CATL has temporarily suspended operations at Jianxiawo/Yichun lithium mine, after its mining licence expired on August 9, Reuters reports. According to people familiar with the matter, the mine’s operations are to be ceased for at least three months, as CATL is still in talks with government agencies
On our numbers, the mine accounted for ~3% of global lithium supply in 2024, so its suspension is a favorable factor for the sentiment on the battery metal, especially if mine’s supply disruption persists
However, we remain overall cautious on lithium, as the global Li market remains in material surplus (8% of demand in 2024, and ~6% in 2025F excluding the CATL’s accident). We also recap that lithium carbonate 90%-ile cash cost was reported at ~USD 9,000/t in 2024
#lithium #EVs
⛏️ CATL has temporarily suspended operations at Jianxiawo/Yichun lithium mine, after its mining licence expired on August 9, Reuters reports. According to people familiar with the matter, the mine’s operations are to be ceased for at least three months, as CATL is still in talks with government agencies
On our numbers, the mine accounted for ~3% of global lithium supply in 2024, so its suspension is a favorable factor for the sentiment on the battery metal, especially if mine’s supply disruption persists
However, we remain overall cautious on lithium, as the global Li market remains in material surplus (8% of demand in 2024, and ~6% in 2025F excluding the CATL’s accident). We also recap that lithium carbonate 90%-ile cash cost was reported at ~USD 9,000/t in 2024
#lithium #EVs
Morning Bites
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output dropped 6% YoY in June, after the 9% YoY gain in May, per INE data. According to Reuters, the decline was attributable to lower supply from major Escondida and Collahuasi mines, which fell 33% YoY and 29% YoY in June, respectively
Meanwhile, Chile's state copper commission cut its 2025 production growth estimate for the country to 1.5% YoY (vs. the +3.0% YoY it had earlier expected in May), amid supply disruption risks. To remind readers, Codelco has recently halted production at large El Teniente mine in late August, which might keep production subdued in coming months
We maintain our positive view on copper amid Chile’s long-term and current supply issues (its peak supply is now likely to be in 2027), growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output dropped 6% YoY in June, after the 9% YoY gain in May, per INE data. According to Reuters, the decline was attributable to lower supply from major Escondida and Collahuasi mines, which fell 33% YoY and 29% YoY in June, respectively
Meanwhile, Chile's state copper commission cut its 2025 production growth estimate for the country to 1.5% YoY (vs. the +3.0% YoY it had earlier expected in May), amid supply disruption risks. To remind readers, Codelco has recently halted production at large El Teniente mine in late August, which might keep production subdued in coming months
We maintain our positive view on copper amid Chile’s long-term and current supply issues (its peak supply is now likely to be in 2027), growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output rose 7% YoY in June, reversing from the 5% YoY decline in May. The growth was mainly attributable to improved operations and some capacity extensions at mines run by Chinese companies (e.g Las Bambas), according to MINEM data
To recap, Peru's top mining association, SNMPE, expects the country's 2025 copper output to hit around 2.80mnt, which is broadly in-line with the 2.74mnt seen in 2024. Meanwhile, in 1H25 Peru's copper production reached 1.34mnt, being up 3.5% YoY
The joint production of Chile and Peru (~24% and ~12% of global Cu supply, respectively) was down 2% YoY in June, as growth in Peruvian output was offset by the downturn in Chile’s supply
#copper
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output rose 7% YoY in June, reversing from the 5% YoY decline in May. The growth was mainly attributable to improved operations and some capacity extensions at mines run by Chinese companies (e.g Las Bambas), according to MINEM data
To recap, Peru's top mining association, SNMPE, expects the country's 2025 copper output to hit around 2.80mnt, which is broadly in-line with the 2.74mnt seen in 2024. Meanwhile, in 1H25 Peru's copper production reached 1.34mnt, being up 3.5% YoY
The joint production of Chile and Peru (~24% and ~12% of global Cu supply, respectively) was down 2% YoY in June, as growth in Peruvian output was offset by the downturn in Chile’s supply
#copper