Morning Bites (part 1)
💎US jewellery sales declined 2% YoY in June, vs. the revised +1% YoY in May, IDEX reports, citing local Department of Commerce data. According to the agency, this decline reflects growing concern over the impact of US tariffs (which came into force on 1 August), along with broader economic uncertainty in the market and high gold prices
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales rose 6% YoY in June, vs. the -3% YoY seen in May, per government data. According to Rapaport, citing a government spokesperson, the ongoing upturn in employment earnings, buoyant local stock market, and effort to promote tourism bolstered retail sales in Hong Kong
We reiterate our view that the global diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025
#diamonds
💎US jewellery sales declined 2% YoY in June, vs. the revised +1% YoY in May, IDEX reports, citing local Department of Commerce data. According to the agency, this decline reflects growing concern over the impact of US tariffs (which came into force on 1 August), along with broader economic uncertainty in the market and high gold prices
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales rose 6% YoY in June, vs. the -3% YoY seen in May, per government data. According to Rapaport, citing a government spokesperson, the ongoing upturn in employment earnings, buoyant local stock market, and effort to promote tourism bolstered retail sales in Hong Kong
We reiterate our view that the global diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
⛏️Codelco has temporarily halted all underground operations at its El Teniente copper mine, after a fatal seismic event, Bloomberg reports, citing the company’s chairman. According to Reuters, Codelco is only stopping the mine's operations: it is continuing its concentrator and smelter operations. The stoppage duration was not specified yet
Given the El Teniente mine produced ~360 kt Cu in 2024 (~2% of global mined output), its suspension might additionally limit already tight global copper supply, which is a favourable factor for sentiment on the copper market, we believe
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
⛏️Codelco has temporarily halted all underground operations at its El Teniente copper mine, after a fatal seismic event, Bloomberg reports, citing the company’s chairman. According to Reuters, Codelco is only stopping the mine's operations: it is continuing its concentrator and smelter operations. The stoppage duration was not specified yet
Given the El Teniente mine produced ~360 kt Cu in 2024 (~2% of global mined output), its suspension might additionally limit already tight global copper supply, which is a favourable factor for sentiment on the copper market, we believe
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites
🏦 Global central banks purchased 38t of gold net in June, vs. the +21t in May, marking the 25th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports. We note that the monthly net gold inflow figure excluding Azerbaijan (+16t), which only provides data on quarterly basis, was 22t
Among the major contributors in June were Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, with net purchases of 9t and 7t, respectively. On the sellers' side, Singapore net sold some 6t in June
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz); however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
🏦 Global central banks purchased 38t of gold net in June, vs. the +21t in May, marking the 25th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports. We note that the monthly net gold inflow figure excluding Azerbaijan (+16t), which only provides data on quarterly basis, was 22t
Among the major contributors in June were Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, with net purchases of 9t and 7t, respectively. On the sellers' side, Singapore net sold some 6t in June
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz); however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for July (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports were up 28% YoY in July, after the 13% YoY gain in June, amid persistently soft domestic demand. To recap, the Chinese authorities are considering cutting local steel output in 2025, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year. On our numbers, a 2-3% output cut could normalise abnormal Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 13% YoY in 7mo25)
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 23% YoY in July, vs. the 26% YoY decline in June, as ample domestic supply limited import demand. According to Reuters, the MoM improvement is due to hotter weather, which spurred higher air conditioning demand, supporting electricity consumption. Noteworthy, potential government inspections in China's major coal production hubs might lead to supply disruptions, reducing pressure on import volumes
#coal #steel
🔗China’s net finished steel exports were up 28% YoY in July, after the 13% YoY gain in June, amid persistently soft domestic demand. To recap, the Chinese authorities are considering cutting local steel output in 2025, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year. On our numbers, a 2-3% output cut could normalise abnormal Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 13% YoY in 7mo25)
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 23% YoY in July, vs. the 26% YoY decline in June, as ample domestic supply limited import demand. According to Reuters, the MoM improvement is due to hotter weather, which spurred higher air conditioning demand, supporting electricity consumption. Noteworthy, potential government inspections in China's major coal production hubs might lead to supply disruptions, reducing pressure on import volumes
#coal #steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany inched up 2% YoY in July, vs. the 6% YoY drop in June. Sales remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-21% vs. July 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 32% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 23% and 20% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 11% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were 16% beneath the 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched up YoY last month, and remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany inched up 2% YoY in July, vs. the 6% YoY drop in June. Sales remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-21% vs. July 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 32% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 23% and 20% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 11% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were 16% beneath the 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched up YoY last month, and remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘US light vehicle sales rose 8% YoY in July, vs. the -6% YoY seen in June. The figure was marginally below the pre-Covid 2019 level (-2% vs. July 2019). Meanwhile, the US Congress has recently approved new budget legislation that will eliminate existing USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, by the end of September 2025. In our view, this move would negatively affect BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. However, this is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
🚘US light vehicle sales rose 8% YoY in July, vs. the -6% YoY seen in June. The figure was marginally below the pre-Covid 2019 level (-2% vs. July 2019). Meanwhile, the US Congress has recently approved new budget legislation that will eliminate existing USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, by the end of September 2025. In our view, this move would negatively affect BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. However, this is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 23t of gold net in July, vs. the +75t net seen in June, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the inflows were recorded in North America (+13t) and Europe (+11t). Overall, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 559t net (~10% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, the expected additional US fed rate cuts in 2H25, as well as geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2H25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 23t of gold net in July, vs. the +75t net seen in June, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the inflows were recorded in North America (+13t) and Europe (+11t). Overall, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 559t net (~10% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, the expected additional US fed rate cuts in 2H25, as well as geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2H25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to report their 2Q25/1H25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are broadly in-line with the consensus on Barrick’s EBITDA, but less optimistic on Antofagasta’s performance
We also expect to see monthly South African mining data, as well as Chinese industrial production statistics this week
#reporting_season
As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to report their 2Q25/1H25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are broadly in-line with the consensus on Barrick’s EBITDA, but less optimistic on Antofagasta’s performance
We also expect to see monthly South African mining data, as well as Chinese industrial production statistics this week
#reporting_season
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏆Global physical gold demand declined 7% YoY to 893t in 2Q25, vs. the -13% YoY in 1Q25, according to World Gold Council data. Specifically, central bank purchases declined 21% YoY in 2Q25; gold jewellery demand was also down 14% YoY
Meanwhile, total global gold demand was up 11% YoY in 2Q25, amid robust ETF inflows. At the same time, world mined gold output inched up 1% YoY in 2Q25
#gold
🏆Global physical gold demand declined 7% YoY to 893t in 2Q25, vs. the -13% YoY in 1Q25, according to World Gold Council data. Specifically, central bank purchases declined 21% YoY in 2Q25; gold jewellery demand was also down 14% YoY
Meanwhile, total global gold demand was up 11% YoY in 2Q25, amid robust ETF inflows. At the same time, world mined gold output inched up 1% YoY in 2Q25
#gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎LFL rough prices at Petra Diamonds Tender-7 grew 3% vs. the 5-6 combined auction, the company has reported. Specifically, LFL prices in FY25 (ended Jun-25) declined 17% YoY. Despite slight improvement in rough prices vs. the previous tender, revenues were down 49% YoY in fiscal 4Q25 and -33% YoY in FY25
The miner expects to produce 2.4-2.8mnct of rough diamonds in FY26 vs. 2.4mnct in FY25
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world polished demand) might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
#diamonds
💎LFL rough prices at Petra Diamonds Tender-7 grew 3% vs. the 5-6 combined auction, the company has reported. Specifically, LFL prices in FY25 (ended Jun-25) declined 17% YoY. Despite slight improvement in rough prices vs. the previous tender, revenues were down 49% YoY in fiscal 4Q25 and -33% YoY in FY25
The miner expects to produce 2.4-2.8mnct of rough diamonds in FY26 vs. 2.4mnct in FY25
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world polished demand) might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 25% YoY in July (domestic + export), accelerating from the +13% YoY in June, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 17% YoY (still -41% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that the local real estate sector is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in late-2025 or 2026, in our view
#steel
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 25% YoY in July (domestic + export), accelerating from the +13% YoY in June, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 17% YoY (still -41% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, the ongoing recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that the local real estate sector is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in late-2025 or 2026, in our view
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 15% YoY in July (vs. +14% YoY in June)
📌China’s new ICE car sales rose 5% YoY in July, in line with June. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) also grew 4% YoY. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals, if the positive trend in registrations persists. We also note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 27% YoY in July, also in-line with June's dynamics. Specifically, local BEV sales (64% of total EV registrations) gained 47% YoY, while PHEVs added 3% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 15% YoY in July (vs. +14% YoY in June)
📌China’s new ICE car sales rose 5% YoY in July, in line with June. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) also grew 4% YoY. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals, if the positive trend in registrations persists. We also note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 27% YoY in July, also in-line with June's dynamics. Specifically, local BEV sales (64% of total EV registrations) gained 47% YoY, while PHEVs added 3% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
❤2
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were up 29% YoY in July, accelerating from the +3% YoY in June. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports also rose 16% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports also gained 7% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 8% of total trading
Despite the positive YoY dynamics seen in July, the Indian diamond trade might be stressed in future months, if the new tariff threat materialises. To recap, the US (~50% of global polished diamond demand) plans to increase import duties on Indian goods up to 50% starting 27 August
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were up 29% YoY in July, accelerating from the +3% YoY in June. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports also rose 16% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports also gained 7% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 8% of total trading
Despite the positive YoY dynamics seen in July, the Indian diamond trade might be stressed in future months, if the new tariff threat materialises. To recap, the US (~50% of global polished diamond demand) plans to increase import duties on Indian goods up to 50% starting 27 August
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output rose 3% YoY in June, vs. the 1% YoY decline in May, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production also gained 3% YoY, vs. the +2% YoY in May
To recap, heavy rains disrupted domestic mining output in 1Q25, while the high cost of electricity (Eskom lifted its tariffs a further 13% in early-2025) also affected South African miners’ performance. Nevertheless, further PGM production recovery, if it persists, might lead to normalisation of abnormally high platinum prices, we believe
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output rose 3% YoY in June, vs. the 1% YoY decline in May, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production also gained 3% YoY, vs. the +2% YoY in May
To recap, heavy rains disrupted domestic mining output in 1Q25, while the high cost of electricity (Eskom lifted its tariffs a further 13% in early-2025) also affected South African miners’ performance. Nevertheless, further PGM production recovery, if it persists, might lead to normalisation of abnormally high platinum prices, we believe
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for July (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 4% YoY in July vs. the 9% YoY decline in June, according to NBS data. The recent production declines are likely related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Although local crude steel supply dropped 3% YoY in 7mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were up 13% YoY over the period, still weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 8% YoY in July, after the 7% YoY decline in June, and were down 56% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 15% YoY in July (-73% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans, however, rose 7% YoY in July (-59% vs. 2021), while property completions inched down 29% YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 4% YoY in July vs. the 9% YoY decline in June, according to NBS data. The recent production declines are likely related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Although local crude steel supply dropped 3% YoY in 7mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were up 13% YoY over the period, still weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales slid 8% YoY in July, after the 7% YoY decline in June, and were down 56% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 15% YoY in July (-73% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans, however, rose 7% YoY in July (-59% vs. 2021), while property completions inched down 29% YoY
#steel #property