Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations slid 5% YoY in June, reversing from the +2% YoY in May, per ACEA data. The decline in catalyst-containing car sales (-9% YoY in June) was partially offset by stronger BEV car registrations (+13% YoY in June)
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, the broadly expected US Fed rate cuts in 2H25, as well as the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (since late-September 2025), might bolster PGM market fundamentals
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations slid 5% YoY in June, reversing from the +2% YoY in May, per ACEA data. The decline in catalyst-containing car sales (-9% YoY in June) was partially offset by stronger BEV car registrations (+13% YoY in June)
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, the broadly expected US Fed rate cuts in 2H25, as well as the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (since late-September 2025), might bolster PGM market fundamentals
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 14% YoY in June (vs. +11% YoY in May)
📌China’s new ICE car sales rose 5% YoY in June, reversing from the -6% YoY in May. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) also grew 5% YoY. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 27% YoY in June, vs. the +37% YoY in May. Specifically, local BEV sales (65% of total EV registrations) gained 40% YoY, while PHEVs added 8% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 14% YoY in June (vs. +11% YoY in May)
📌China’s new ICE car sales rose 5% YoY in June, reversing from the -6% YoY in May. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) also grew 5% YoY. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 27% YoY in June, vs. the +37% YoY in May. Specifically, local BEV sales (65% of total EV registrations) gained 40% YoY, while PHEVs added 8% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales grew 7% YoY in 2Q25, vs. the +12% in 1Q25, according to a press-release from the retailer. Richemont highlighted the increase in sales across most regions, except for Japan with higher comparative base
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade), if materialised, might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
#diamonds
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales grew 7% YoY in 2Q25, vs. the +12% in 1Q25, according to a press-release from the retailer. Richemont highlighted the increase in sales across most regions, except for Japan with higher comparative base
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade), if materialised, might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🇪🇺 Total car sales in the EU fell 1% YoY in 2Q25
🚗💨 Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in Europe dropped 10% YoY in 2Q25, after the 6% YoY slide in 1Q25. Petrol car sales shrank 22% YoY (vs. -21% YoY in 1Q25), while diesel car sales fell 29% YoY. Diesel cars accounted for 23% of total ICE car registrations. Strong HEV sales (+12% YoY in 2Q25) partially offset the decline in petrol and diesel registrations. Overall, sales figures remained weak, compared with pre-Covid levels. We note that the EU represents 23% and 30% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively
🚘 EV sales in Europe rose 27% YoY in 2Q25, after the 20% YoY increase in 1Q25. Specifically, BEV sales were up 22% YoY (vs. +28% YoY in 1Q25), while PHEV sales surged 38% YoY. The share of BEVs in total EV sales slid to 66% (vs. 68% in 1Q25)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇪🇺 Total car sales in the EU fell 1% YoY in 2Q25
🚗💨 Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in Europe dropped 10% YoY in 2Q25, after the 6% YoY slide in 1Q25. Petrol car sales shrank 22% YoY (vs. -21% YoY in 1Q25), while diesel car sales fell 29% YoY. Diesel cars accounted for 23% of total ICE car registrations. Strong HEV sales (+12% YoY in 2Q25) partially offset the decline in petrol and diesel registrations. Overall, sales figures remained weak, compared with pre-Covid levels. We note that the EU represents 23% and 30% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively
🚘 EV sales in Europe rose 27% YoY in 2Q25, after the 20% YoY increase in 1Q25. Specifically, BEV sales were up 22% YoY (vs. +28% YoY in 1Q25), while PHEV sales surged 38% YoY. The share of BEVs in total EV sales slid to 66% (vs. 68% in 1Q25)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues, some M&M names are set to publish their 2Q/1H25 earnings this week. Among the majors, our estimate for Fresnillo's and Glencore's EBITDA is more bullish than the consensus
Meanwhile, we also expect to see China's monthly import/export data this week
#reporting_season
As the reporting season continues, some M&M names are set to publish their 2Q/1H25 earnings this week. Among the majors, our estimate for Fresnillo's and Glencore's EBITDA is more bullish than the consensus
Meanwhile, we also expect to see China's monthly import/export data this week
#reporting_season
Morning Bites
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs remained broadly weak in July. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 49.8 (vs. 49.5 in June), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.0 (from 49.0)
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China slid to 49.3 (vs. 49.7 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.5
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 59.1 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, PMI indices in key global economies mostly remained below 50.0 in July, underlining the weakness of local manufacturing activity, except India, with PMI continuously over 55.0
#PMIs
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs remained broadly weak in July. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 49.8 (vs. 49.5 in June), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.0 (from 49.0)
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China slid to 49.3 (vs. 49.7 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.5
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 59.1 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, PMI indices in key global economies mostly remained below 50.0 in July, underlining the weakness of local manufacturing activity, except India, with PMI continuously over 55.0
#PMIs
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎US jewellery sales declined 2% YoY in June, vs. the revised +1% YoY in May, IDEX reports, citing local Department of Commerce data. According to the agency, this decline reflects growing concern over the impact of US tariffs (which came into force on 1 August), along with broader economic uncertainty in the market and high gold prices
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales rose 6% YoY in June, vs. the -3% YoY seen in May, per government data. According to Rapaport, citing a government spokesperson, the ongoing upturn in employment earnings, buoyant local stock market, and effort to promote tourism bolstered retail sales in Hong Kong
We reiterate our view that the global diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025
#diamonds
💎US jewellery sales declined 2% YoY in June, vs. the revised +1% YoY in May, IDEX reports, citing local Department of Commerce data. According to the agency, this decline reflects growing concern over the impact of US tariffs (which came into force on 1 August), along with broader economic uncertainty in the market and high gold prices
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales rose 6% YoY in June, vs. the -3% YoY seen in May, per government data. According to Rapaport, citing a government spokesperson, the ongoing upturn in employment earnings, buoyant local stock market, and effort to promote tourism bolstered retail sales in Hong Kong
We reiterate our view that the global diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
⛏️Codelco has temporarily halted all underground operations at its El Teniente copper mine, after a fatal seismic event, Bloomberg reports, citing the company’s chairman. According to Reuters, Codelco is only stopping the mine's operations: it is continuing its concentrator and smelter operations. The stoppage duration was not specified yet
Given the El Teniente mine produced ~360 kt Cu in 2024 (~2% of global mined output), its suspension might additionally limit already tight global copper supply, which is a favourable factor for sentiment on the copper market, we believe
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
⛏️Codelco has temporarily halted all underground operations at its El Teniente copper mine, after a fatal seismic event, Bloomberg reports, citing the company’s chairman. According to Reuters, Codelco is only stopping the mine's operations: it is continuing its concentrator and smelter operations. The stoppage duration was not specified yet
Given the El Teniente mine produced ~360 kt Cu in 2024 (~2% of global mined output), its suspension might additionally limit already tight global copper supply, which is a favourable factor for sentiment on the copper market, we believe
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites
🏦 Global central banks purchased 38t of gold net in June, vs. the +21t in May, marking the 25th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports. We note that the monthly net gold inflow figure excluding Azerbaijan (+16t), which only provides data on quarterly basis, was 22t
Among the major contributors in June were Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, with net purchases of 9t and 7t, respectively. On the sellers' side, Singapore net sold some 6t in June
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz); however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
🏦 Global central banks purchased 38t of gold net in June, vs. the +21t in May, marking the 25th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports. We note that the monthly net gold inflow figure excluding Azerbaijan (+16t), which only provides data on quarterly basis, was 22t
Among the major contributors in June were Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, with net purchases of 9t and 7t, respectively. On the sellers' side, Singapore net sold some 6t in June
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz); however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for July (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports were up 28% YoY in July, after the 13% YoY gain in June, amid persistently soft domestic demand. To recap, the Chinese authorities are considering cutting local steel output in 2025, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year. On our numbers, a 2-3% output cut could normalise abnormal Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 13% YoY in 7mo25)
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 23% YoY in July, vs. the 26% YoY decline in June, as ample domestic supply limited import demand. According to Reuters, the MoM improvement is due to hotter weather, which spurred higher air conditioning demand, supporting electricity consumption. Noteworthy, potential government inspections in China's major coal production hubs might lead to supply disruptions, reducing pressure on import volumes
#coal #steel
🔗China’s net finished steel exports were up 28% YoY in July, after the 13% YoY gain in June, amid persistently soft domestic demand. To recap, the Chinese authorities are considering cutting local steel output in 2025, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year. On our numbers, a 2-3% output cut could normalise abnormal Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 13% YoY in 7mo25)
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 23% YoY in July, vs. the 26% YoY decline in June, as ample domestic supply limited import demand. According to Reuters, the MoM improvement is due to hotter weather, which spurred higher air conditioning demand, supporting electricity consumption. Noteworthy, potential government inspections in China's major coal production hubs might lead to supply disruptions, reducing pressure on import volumes
#coal #steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany inched up 2% YoY in July, vs. the 6% YoY drop in June. Sales remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-21% vs. July 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 32% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 23% and 20% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 11% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were 16% beneath the 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched up YoY last month, and remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany inched up 2% YoY in July, vs. the 6% YoY drop in June. Sales remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-21% vs. July 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 32% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 23% and 20% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 11% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were 16% beneath the 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched up YoY last month, and remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘US light vehicle sales rose 8% YoY in July, vs. the -6% YoY seen in June. The figure was marginally below the pre-Covid 2019 level (-2% vs. July 2019). Meanwhile, the US Congress has recently approved new budget legislation that will eliminate existing USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, by the end of September 2025. In our view, this move would negatively affect BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. However, this is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
🚘US light vehicle sales rose 8% YoY in July, vs. the -6% YoY seen in June. The figure was marginally below the pre-Covid 2019 level (-2% vs. July 2019). Meanwhile, the US Congress has recently approved new budget legislation that will eliminate existing USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, by the end of September 2025. In our view, this move would negatively affect BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. However, this is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 23t of gold net in July, vs. the +75t net seen in June, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the inflows were recorded in North America (+13t) and Europe (+11t). Overall, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 559t net (~10% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, the expected additional US fed rate cuts in 2H25, as well as geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2H25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 23t of gold net in July, vs. the +75t net seen in June, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the inflows were recorded in North America (+13t) and Europe (+11t). Overall, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 559t net (~10% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, the expected additional US fed rate cuts in 2H25, as well as geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2H25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to report their 2Q25/1H25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are broadly in-line with the consensus on Barrick’s EBITDA, but less optimistic on Antofagasta’s performance
We also expect to see monthly South African mining data, as well as Chinese industrial production statistics this week
#reporting_season
As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to report their 2Q25/1H25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are broadly in-line with the consensus on Barrick’s EBITDA, but less optimistic on Antofagasta’s performance
We also expect to see monthly South African mining data, as well as Chinese industrial production statistics this week
#reporting_season
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏆Global physical gold demand declined 7% YoY to 893t in 2Q25, vs. the -13% YoY in 1Q25, according to World Gold Council data. Specifically, central bank purchases declined 21% YoY in 2Q25; gold jewellery demand was also down 14% YoY
Meanwhile, total global gold demand was up 11% YoY in 2Q25, amid robust ETF inflows. At the same time, world mined gold output inched up 1% YoY in 2Q25
#gold
🏆Global physical gold demand declined 7% YoY to 893t in 2Q25, vs. the -13% YoY in 1Q25, according to World Gold Council data. Specifically, central bank purchases declined 21% YoY in 2Q25; gold jewellery demand was also down 14% YoY
Meanwhile, total global gold demand was up 11% YoY in 2Q25, amid robust ETF inflows. At the same time, world mined gold output inched up 1% YoY in 2Q25
#gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎LFL rough prices at Petra Diamonds Tender-7 grew 3% vs. the 5-6 combined auction, the company has reported. Specifically, LFL prices in FY25 (ended Jun-25) declined 17% YoY. Despite slight improvement in rough prices vs. the previous tender, revenues were down 49% YoY in fiscal 4Q25 and -33% YoY in FY25
The miner expects to produce 2.4-2.8mnct of rough diamonds in FY26 vs. 2.4mnct in FY25
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world polished demand) might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
#diamonds
💎LFL rough prices at Petra Diamonds Tender-7 grew 3% vs. the 5-6 combined auction, the company has reported. Specifically, LFL prices in FY25 (ended Jun-25) declined 17% YoY. Despite slight improvement in rough prices vs. the previous tender, revenues were down 49% YoY in fiscal 4Q25 and -33% YoY in FY25
The miner expects to produce 2.4-2.8mnct of rough diamonds in FY26 vs. 2.4mnct in FY25
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world polished demand) might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
#diamonds