Morning Bites (part 2)
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China rose 22% YoY in June, vs. the 51% YoY jump in May, per NBS data. The figure was also up 61% YoY in 1H25. Meanwhile, investment in China’s grid infrastructure rose 4% YoY in June (vs. the +33% YoY in May) and increased 15% YoY on 1H25 basis
Although State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically, the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China rose 22% YoY in June, vs. the 51% YoY jump in May, per NBS data. The figure was also up 61% YoY in 1H25. Meanwhile, investment in China’s grid infrastructure rose 4% YoY in June (vs. the +33% YoY in May) and increased 15% YoY on 1H25 basis
Although State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically, the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
Morning Bites (part 3)
🔗Global crude steel output dropped 6% YoY, to 151mnt in June, accelerating from the -4% YoY seen in May, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (55% of global crude steel supply in June) dropped 9% YoY (-3% YoY in 1H25), while world ex-China output slid 1% YoY, per WSA data. Meanwhile, Russia’s production dropped 7% YoY last month; EU output also shrank 8% YoY. US production rose 5% YoY, while Indian output (~9% of global steel supply) gained 13% YoY, also being up 9% YoY in 1H25
We remind readers that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might mean a decline 2-5% YoY, per market estimates), which is likely to cool surging Chinese steel exports and support global prices in late-2025 or 2026, we believe
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output dropped 6% YoY, to 151mnt in June, accelerating from the -4% YoY seen in May, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (55% of global crude steel supply in June) dropped 9% YoY (-3% YoY in 1H25), while world ex-China output slid 1% YoY, per WSA data. Meanwhile, Russia’s production dropped 7% YoY last month; EU output also shrank 8% YoY. US production rose 5% YoY, while Indian output (~9% of global steel supply) gained 13% YoY, also being up 9% YoY in 1H25
We remind readers that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might mean a decline 2-5% YoY, per market estimates), which is likely to cool surging Chinese steel exports and support global prices in late-2025 or 2026, we believe
#steel
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-July was 2.14mnt, up 2.1% vs. the previous ten days, and 0.3% lower YoY. Local steel inventories rose 3.9% over the period, but were down 3.9% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 20th July), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+0.5% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.3% YoY in 1H25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-July was 2.14mnt, up 2.1% vs. the previous ten days, and 0.3% lower YoY. Local steel inventories rose 3.9% over the period, but were down 3.9% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 20th July), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+0.5% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.3% YoY in 1H25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participant estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues, a number of M&M names are set to publish their 2Q/1H25 earnings this week. Among the major miners, our forecasts for Rio Tinto's and Vale's EBITDAs are more bullish than the consensus. Meanwhile, we are more conservative on Anglo American's performance
#reporting_season
As the reporting season continues, a number of M&M names are set to publish their 2Q/1H25 earnings this week. Among the major miners, our forecasts for Rio Tinto's and Vale's EBITDAs are more bullish than the consensus. Meanwhile, we are more conservative on Anglo American's performance
#reporting_season
Morning Bites
📈Russia’s gold output rose 9.3% YoY in June, reversing from the -0.4% YoY in May, per Rosstat data. Overall, the country’s gold production in 1H25 was up 5.5% YoY. Russia accounts for ~10% of the world's mined gold supply
We maintain our view that gold is trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), but we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2025, given steady inflows and geopolitical tensions
#gold
📈Russia’s gold output rose 9.3% YoY in June, reversing from the -0.4% YoY in May, per Rosstat data. Overall, the country’s gold production in 1H25 was up 5.5% YoY. Russia accounts for ~10% of the world's mined gold supply
We maintain our view that gold is trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), but we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2025, given steady inflows and geopolitical tensions
#gold
Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production gained 5.8% YoY in May, in line with the +5.4% YoY in April, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Production was up 2.7% YoY on a 5mo25 basis, mainly driven by the growth in Peru (+3.0% YoY), Chile (+4.5% YoY) and the DRC (+9.0% YoY). However, positive production dynamics in further months will be limited, in our view, given the suspension of Kakula’s underground operations in late-May (~1.5% of global and ~10% of DRC’s Cu output). Apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow, being up 3.2% YoY in 5mo25, mainly driven by China (+5.5% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers). Meanwhile, further progress in US-China trade negotiations would also be favourable for sentiment on base metals globally
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production gained 5.8% YoY in May, in line with the +5.4% YoY in April, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Production was up 2.7% YoY on a 5mo25 basis, mainly driven by the growth in Peru (+3.0% YoY), Chile (+4.5% YoY) and the DRC (+9.0% YoY). However, positive production dynamics in further months will be limited, in our view, given the suspension of Kakula’s underground operations in late-May (~1.5% of global and ~10% of DRC’s Cu output). Apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow, being up 3.2% YoY in 5mo25, mainly driven by China (+5.5% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers). Meanwhile, further progress in US-China trade negotiations would also be favourable for sentiment on base metals globally
#copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery stood flat YoY in 2Q25, in line with 1Q25's dynamics, according to a press release from the retailer. The company’s Watches & Jewellery segment remained stable YoY, despite a 7% YoY sales decline in its two other major segments (Fashion & Leather and Wines & Spirits) and the ongoing renovation of Tiffany & Co. stores
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade), would be a favourable factor for consumer confidence, we believe
#diamonds
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery stood flat YoY in 2Q25, in line with 1Q25's dynamics, according to a press release from the retailer. The company’s Watches & Jewellery segment remained stable YoY, despite a 7% YoY sales decline in its two other major segments (Fashion & Leather and Wines & Spirits) and the ongoing renovation of Tiffany & Co. stores
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade), would be a favourable factor for consumer confidence, we believe
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations slid 5% YoY in June, reversing from the +2% YoY in May, per ACEA data. The decline in catalyst-containing car sales (-9% YoY in June) was partially offset by stronger BEV car registrations (+13% YoY in June)
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, the broadly expected US Fed rate cuts in 2H25, as well as the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (since late-September 2025), might bolster PGM market fundamentals
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations slid 5% YoY in June, reversing from the +2% YoY in May, per ACEA data. The decline in catalyst-containing car sales (-9% YoY in June) was partially offset by stronger BEV car registrations (+13% YoY in June)
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, the broadly expected US Fed rate cuts in 2H25, as well as the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (since late-September 2025), might bolster PGM market fundamentals
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 14% YoY in June (vs. +11% YoY in May)
📌China’s new ICE car sales rose 5% YoY in June, reversing from the -6% YoY in May. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) also grew 5% YoY. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 27% YoY in June, vs. the +37% YoY in May. Specifically, local BEV sales (65% of total EV registrations) gained 40% YoY, while PHEVs added 8% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 14% YoY in June (vs. +11% YoY in May)
📌China’s new ICE car sales rose 5% YoY in June, reversing from the -6% YoY in May. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) also grew 5% YoY. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 27% YoY in June, vs. the +37% YoY in May. Specifically, local BEV sales (65% of total EV registrations) gained 40% YoY, while PHEVs added 8% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales grew 7% YoY in 2Q25, vs. the +12% in 1Q25, according to a press-release from the retailer. Richemont highlighted the increase in sales across most regions, except for Japan with higher comparative base
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade), if materialised, might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
#diamonds
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales grew 7% YoY in 2Q25, vs. the +12% in 1Q25, according to a press-release from the retailer. Richemont highlighted the increase in sales across most regions, except for Japan with higher comparative base
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade), if materialised, might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🇪🇺 Total car sales in the EU fell 1% YoY in 2Q25
🚗💨 Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in Europe dropped 10% YoY in 2Q25, after the 6% YoY slide in 1Q25. Petrol car sales shrank 22% YoY (vs. -21% YoY in 1Q25), while diesel car sales fell 29% YoY. Diesel cars accounted for 23% of total ICE car registrations. Strong HEV sales (+12% YoY in 2Q25) partially offset the decline in petrol and diesel registrations. Overall, sales figures remained weak, compared with pre-Covid levels. We note that the EU represents 23% and 30% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively
🚘 EV sales in Europe rose 27% YoY in 2Q25, after the 20% YoY increase in 1Q25. Specifically, BEV sales were up 22% YoY (vs. +28% YoY in 1Q25), while PHEV sales surged 38% YoY. The share of BEVs in total EV sales slid to 66% (vs. 68% in 1Q25)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇪🇺 Total car sales in the EU fell 1% YoY in 2Q25
🚗💨 Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in Europe dropped 10% YoY in 2Q25, after the 6% YoY slide in 1Q25. Petrol car sales shrank 22% YoY (vs. -21% YoY in 1Q25), while diesel car sales fell 29% YoY. Diesel cars accounted for 23% of total ICE car registrations. Strong HEV sales (+12% YoY in 2Q25) partially offset the decline in petrol and diesel registrations. Overall, sales figures remained weak, compared with pre-Covid levels. We note that the EU represents 23% and 30% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively
🚘 EV sales in Europe rose 27% YoY in 2Q25, after the 20% YoY increase in 1Q25. Specifically, BEV sales were up 22% YoY (vs. +28% YoY in 1Q25), while PHEV sales surged 38% YoY. The share of BEVs in total EV sales slid to 66% (vs. 68% in 1Q25)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues, some M&M names are set to publish their 2Q/1H25 earnings this week. Among the majors, our estimate for Fresnillo's and Glencore's EBITDA is more bullish than the consensus
Meanwhile, we also expect to see China's monthly import/export data this week
#reporting_season
As the reporting season continues, some M&M names are set to publish their 2Q/1H25 earnings this week. Among the majors, our estimate for Fresnillo's and Glencore's EBITDA is more bullish than the consensus
Meanwhile, we also expect to see China's monthly import/export data this week
#reporting_season
Morning Bites
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs remained broadly weak in July. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 49.8 (vs. 49.5 in June), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.0 (from 49.0)
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China slid to 49.3 (vs. 49.7 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.5
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 59.1 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, PMI indices in key global economies mostly remained below 50.0 in July, underlining the weakness of local manufacturing activity, except India, with PMI continuously over 55.0
#PMIs
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs remained broadly weak in July. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 49.8 (vs. 49.5 in June), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.0 (from 49.0)
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China slid to 49.3 (vs. 49.7 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.5
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 59.1 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, PMI indices in key global economies mostly remained below 50.0 in July, underlining the weakness of local manufacturing activity, except India, with PMI continuously over 55.0
#PMIs
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎US jewellery sales declined 2% YoY in June, vs. the revised +1% YoY in May, IDEX reports, citing local Department of Commerce data. According to the agency, this decline reflects growing concern over the impact of US tariffs (which came into force on 1 August), along with broader economic uncertainty in the market and high gold prices
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales rose 6% YoY in June, vs. the -3% YoY seen in May, per government data. According to Rapaport, citing a government spokesperson, the ongoing upturn in employment earnings, buoyant local stock market, and effort to promote tourism bolstered retail sales in Hong Kong
We reiterate our view that the global diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025
#diamonds
💎US jewellery sales declined 2% YoY in June, vs. the revised +1% YoY in May, IDEX reports, citing local Department of Commerce data. According to the agency, this decline reflects growing concern over the impact of US tariffs (which came into force on 1 August), along with broader economic uncertainty in the market and high gold prices
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales rose 6% YoY in June, vs. the -3% YoY seen in May, per government data. According to Rapaport, citing a government spokesperson, the ongoing upturn in employment earnings, buoyant local stock market, and effort to promote tourism bolstered retail sales in Hong Kong
We reiterate our view that the global diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
⛏️Codelco has temporarily halted all underground operations at its El Teniente copper mine, after a fatal seismic event, Bloomberg reports, citing the company’s chairman. According to Reuters, Codelco is only stopping the mine's operations: it is continuing its concentrator and smelter operations. The stoppage duration was not specified yet
Given the El Teniente mine produced ~360 kt Cu in 2024 (~2% of global mined output), its suspension might additionally limit already tight global copper supply, which is a favourable factor for sentiment on the copper market, we believe
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
⛏️Codelco has temporarily halted all underground operations at its El Teniente copper mine, after a fatal seismic event, Bloomberg reports, citing the company’s chairman. According to Reuters, Codelco is only stopping the mine's operations: it is continuing its concentrator and smelter operations. The stoppage duration was not specified yet
Given the El Teniente mine produced ~360 kt Cu in 2024 (~2% of global mined output), its suspension might additionally limit already tight global copper supply, which is a favourable factor for sentiment on the copper market, we believe
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites
🏦 Global central banks purchased 38t of gold net in June, vs. the +21t in May, marking the 25th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports. We note that the monthly net gold inflow figure excluding Azerbaijan (+16t), which only provides data on quarterly basis, was 22t
Among the major contributors in June were Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, with net purchases of 9t and 7t, respectively. On the sellers' side, Singapore net sold some 6t in June
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz); however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
🏦 Global central banks purchased 38t of gold net in June, vs. the +21t in May, marking the 25th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports. We note that the monthly net gold inflow figure excluding Azerbaijan (+16t), which only provides data on quarterly basis, was 22t
Among the major contributors in June were Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, with net purchases of 9t and 7t, respectively. On the sellers' side, Singapore net sold some 6t in June
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz); however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for July (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports were up 28% YoY in July, after the 13% YoY gain in June, amid persistently soft domestic demand. To recap, the Chinese authorities are considering cutting local steel output in 2025, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year. On our numbers, a 2-3% output cut could normalise abnormal Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 13% YoY in 7mo25)
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 23% YoY in July, vs. the 26% YoY decline in June, as ample domestic supply limited import demand. According to Reuters, the MoM improvement is due to hotter weather, which spurred higher air conditioning demand, supporting electricity consumption. Noteworthy, potential government inspections in China's major coal production hubs might lead to supply disruptions, reducing pressure on import volumes
#coal #steel
🔗China’s net finished steel exports were up 28% YoY in July, after the 13% YoY gain in June, amid persistently soft domestic demand. To recap, the Chinese authorities are considering cutting local steel output in 2025, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year. On our numbers, a 2-3% output cut could normalise abnormal Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 13% YoY in 7mo25)
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 23% YoY in July, vs. the 26% YoY decline in June, as ample domestic supply limited import demand. According to Reuters, the MoM improvement is due to hotter weather, which spurred higher air conditioning demand, supporting electricity consumption. Noteworthy, potential government inspections in China's major coal production hubs might lead to supply disruptions, reducing pressure on import volumes
#coal #steel