Morning Bites
📉China’s output of aluminium products slid 3% YoY to 5.8mnt in May, vs. -1% YoY in April. In our view, the expansion of the grid and new energy sector in China (~60% of global consumption), combined with the Al output cap in China, remain among key factors, bolstering Al fundamentals
🥉China's output of copper products jumped 19% YoY in May to 2.1mnt, vs. the +15% YoY in April. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t by late-2025 or early-2026). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
📉China’s output of aluminium products slid 3% YoY to 5.8mnt in May, vs. -1% YoY in April. In our view, the expansion of the grid and new energy sector in China (~60% of global consumption), combined with the Al output cap in China, remain among key factors, bolstering Al fundamentals
🥉China's output of copper products jumped 19% YoY in May to 2.1mnt, vs. the +15% YoY in April. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t by late-2025 or early-2026). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output dropped 4% YoY, to 159mnt in May, after being flat YoY in April, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (55% of global crude steel supply in May) dropped 7% YoY (-2% YoY in 5mo25), while world ex-China output was flat YoY, per WSA data. Meanwhile, Russia’s production also dropped 7% YoY last month; EU output shrank 3% YoY. US production inched up 2% YoY, while Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) gained 10% YoY, also increasing 8% YoY in 5mo25
We remind readers that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might mean a decline 2-5% YoY, per market estimates), which is likely to cool down surging Chinese steel exports, and support global prices in 2H25, we believe
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output dropped 4% YoY, to 159mnt in May, after being flat YoY in April, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (55% of global crude steel supply in May) dropped 7% YoY (-2% YoY in 5mo25), while world ex-China output was flat YoY, per WSA data. Meanwhile, Russia’s production also dropped 7% YoY last month; EU output shrank 3% YoY. US production inched up 2% YoY, while Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) gained 10% YoY, also increasing 8% YoY in 5mo25
We remind readers that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might mean a decline 2-5% YoY, per market estimates), which is likely to cool down surging Chinese steel exports, and support global prices in 2H25, we believe
#steel
Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production jumped 5.4% YoY in April, vs. the revised +3.5% YoY in March, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Production was up 2.1% YoY on the 4mo25 basis: growth in Peru (+5.0% YoY) and the DRC (+8.0% YoY) was mainly offset by a slowdown in Canada and Indonesia (-42% YoY), due to lower output at the Grasberg mine amid planned major maintenance works. Further production dynamics will be under pressure, given the suspension of Kakula (~1.5% of global and ~10% of Congolese Cu output). Apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow, up 3.3% YoY in 4mo25, mainly driven by China (+6.0% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers). Meanwhile, further progress in US-China trade negotiations is also favourable for sentiment on base metals globally
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production jumped 5.4% YoY in April, vs. the revised +3.5% YoY in March, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Production was up 2.1% YoY on the 4mo25 basis: growth in Peru (+5.0% YoY) and the DRC (+8.0% YoY) was mainly offset by a slowdown in Canada and Indonesia (-42% YoY), due to lower output at the Grasberg mine amid planned major maintenance works. Further production dynamics will be under pressure, given the suspension of Kakula (~1.5% of global and ~10% of Congolese Cu output). Apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow, up 3.3% YoY in 4mo25, mainly driven by China (+6.0% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers). Meanwhile, further progress in US-China trade negotiations is also favourable for sentiment on base metals globally
#copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🥈Solar panel installations in China surged 5.6x YoY in May, vs. the 3.2x YoY growth in April, per NEA data, as some key subsidies were planned to expire in June, as investment in grid infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the installation of solar capacity. The figure was also up 2.4x YoY in 5mo25
Meanwhile, overall photovoltaic cell output in China grew 7% YoY in May, decelerating from the 32% gain in April (and was up 28% YoY on 5mo25 basis)
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
🥈Solar panel installations in China surged 5.6x YoY in May, vs. the 3.2x YoY growth in April, per NEA data, as some key subsidies were planned to expire in June, as investment in grid infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the installation of solar capacity. The figure was also up 2.4x YoY in 5mo25
Meanwhile, overall photovoltaic cell output in China grew 7% YoY in May, decelerating from the 32% gain in April (and was up 28% YoY on 5mo25 basis)
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China surged 51% YoY in May, vs. the 2.2x YoY growth in April, per NBS data. The figure was also up 78% YoY in 5mo25. Meanwhile, investment in China’s grid infrastructure jumped 33% YoY in May (vs. the -2% YoY in April) and was up 20% YoY on 5mo25 basis
Although State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically, the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China surged 51% YoY in May, vs. the 2.2x YoY growth in April, per NBS data. The figure was also up 78% YoY in 5mo25. Meanwhile, investment in China’s grid infrastructure jumped 33% YoY in May (vs. the -2% YoY in April) and was up 20% YoY on 5mo25 basis
Although State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically, the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations inched up 2% YoY in May, after being flat YoY in April. The growth was mainly driven by BEV sales (+25% YoY in April), while catalyst-containing car registrations slid 2% YoY
We maintain our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, and the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which could even be replaced with USD 1,000 new EV purchase tax), might bolster PGM market fundamentals
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations inched up 2% YoY in May, after being flat YoY in April. The growth was mainly driven by BEV sales (+25% YoY in April), while catalyst-containing car registrations slid 2% YoY
We maintain our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, and the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which could even be replaced with USD 1,000 new EV purchase tax), might bolster PGM market fundamentals
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
Morning Bites (part 2)
📉Russia’s gold output inched down 0.4% YoY in May, reversing from the +8.0% YoY in April, per Rosstat data. Meanwhile, the country’s production in 5mo25 was up 4.6% YoY. Russia accounts for ~10% of the world's mined gold supply
We maintain our view that gold is trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), but we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2H25, given steady inflows from global central banks and ETFs
#gold
📉Russia’s gold output inched down 0.4% YoY in May, reversing from the +8.0% YoY in April, per Rosstat data. Meanwhile, the country’s production in 5mo25 was up 4.6% YoY. Russia accounts for ~10% of the world's mined gold supply
We maintain our view that gold is trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), but we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2H25, given steady inflows from global central banks and ETFs
#gold
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in mid-June was reported at 2.15mnt, down 0.5% vs. the previous ten days, and 1.7% lower YoY. Local steel inventories increased 2.7% over the period, but were 1.3% lower YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 20 June), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+0.9% YoY). However, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 1.7% YoY in 5mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in mid-June was reported at 2.15mnt, down 0.5% vs. the previous ten days, and 1.7% lower YoY. Local steel inventories increased 2.7% over the period, but were 1.3% lower YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 20 June), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+0.9% YoY). However, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 1.7% YoY in 5mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs were broadly weak in June. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (vs. 49.4 in May), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0 (from 48.5)
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China inched up to 49.7 (vs. 49.5 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.4
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 58.4 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, global PMI indices remained below 50.0 in June, underlining the weakness of local manufacturing activity, except India, with PMI continuously over 55.0. In our view, further progress in US-China trade negotiations would be favourable for the sentiment in the global manufacturing sector, which is a supportive factor for industrial metals prices (e.g., copper and aluminium)
#PMIs
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs were broadly weak in June. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (vs. 49.4 in May), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0 (from 48.5)
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China inched up to 49.7 (vs. 49.5 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.4
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 58.4 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, global PMI indices remained below 50.0 in June, underlining the weakness of local manufacturing activity, except India, with PMI continuously over 55.0. In our view, further progress in US-China trade negotiations would be favourable for the sentiment in the global manufacturing sector, which is a supportive factor for industrial metals prices (e.g., copper and aluminium)
#PMIs
Morning Bites
🏦 Global central banks purchased 20t of gold net in May, vs. the revised +16t in April, marking the 24th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports. Among the major contributors in May, Kazakhstan net purchased 7t (+15t YTD) and Poland added some 6t (+67t YTD). On the sellers' side, Singapore net sold 5t in May (-10t YTD), while Uzbekistan released some 1t (-27t YTD)
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz); however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
🏦 Global central banks purchased 20t of gold net in May, vs. the revised +16t in April, marking the 24th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports. Among the major contributors in May, Kazakhstan net purchased 7t (+15t YTD) and Poland added some 6t (+67t YTD). On the sellers' side, Singapore net sold 5t in May (-10t YTD), while Uzbekistan released some 1t (-27t YTD)
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz); however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
Morning Bites
⚒Nornickel has revised downward its forecast of a Ni market surplus in 2025 to 120kt
• Per Nornickel, the Ni market is now set to remain in a lower surplus of 120-130kt in 2025-26 (than its previous estimate of 150kt in 2025), due to stronger demand in China. This surplus is to be mainly in the Class-1 Ni sector, amid the ramp-up of new production capacities
• Nornickel reiterated its view that the Pd market will be balanced in 2025, but now sees a slight deficit of 0.1mnoz in 2026. Meanwhile, it still expects a slight deficit on the Pt market in 2025 (0.2mnoz), to deepen to 0.3mnoz in 2026
❗️ In our view, the recent PGM rally was driven by speculative factors: we do not see a fundamental driver for such growth in Pt
• Nornickel expects the global Cu market to be balanced in 2025-26, but highlights supply risks and low inventories. This estimate looks conservative to us, given surging grid investment and renewables installations in China
#nickel #PGMs #copper
⚒Nornickel has revised downward its forecast of a Ni market surplus in 2025 to 120kt
• Per Nornickel, the Ni market is now set to remain in a lower surplus of 120-130kt in 2025-26 (than its previous estimate of 150kt in 2025), due to stronger demand in China. This surplus is to be mainly in the Class-1 Ni sector, amid the ramp-up of new production capacities
• Nornickel reiterated its view that the Pd market will be balanced in 2025, but now sees a slight deficit of 0.1mnoz in 2026. Meanwhile, it still expects a slight deficit on the Pt market in 2025 (0.2mnoz), to deepen to 0.3mnoz in 2026
❗️ In our view, the recent PGM rally was driven by speculative factors: we do not see a fundamental driver for such growth in Pt
• Nornickel expects the global Cu market to be balanced in 2025-26, but highlights supply risks and low inventories. This estimate looks conservative to us, given surging grid investment and renewables installations in China
#nickel #PGMs #copper
Morning Bites
💎US jewellery sales grew 3% YoY in May, vs. the revised +2% YoY in April, IDEX reports, citing local Department of Commerce data. According to Rapaport, local dealers noted the oversupply of slow-moving goods, but steady market interest for 1.25 ct. and larger stones
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales slid 3% YoY in May, vs. the -2% YoY seen in April, per government data. According to Rapaport, rising gold prices deterred many local customers from purchasing jewellery, while increased outbound tourism also weighed on both Hong Kong and Mainland sales
We reiterate our view that the global diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025
#diamonds
💎US jewellery sales grew 3% YoY in May, vs. the revised +2% YoY in April, IDEX reports, citing local Department of Commerce data. According to Rapaport, local dealers noted the oversupply of slow-moving goods, but steady market interest for 1.25 ct. and larger stones
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales slid 3% YoY in May, vs. the -2% YoY seen in April, per government data. According to Rapaport, rising gold prices deterred many local customers from purchasing jewellery, while increased outbound tourism also weighed on both Hong Kong and Mainland sales
We reiterate our view that the global diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-June was 2.13mnt, down 0.9% vs. the previous ten days, and 1.8% lower YoY. Local steel inventories decreased 4.7% over the period, but were still up 5.1% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 30 June), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+0.7% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 1.7% YoY in 5mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-June was 2.13mnt, down 0.9% vs. the previous ten days, and 1.8% lower YoY. Local steel inventories decreased 4.7% over the period, but were still up 5.1% YoY
According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 30 June), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+0.7% YoY). Meanwhile, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 1.7% YoY in 5mo25, following Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 75t of gold net in June, reversing from the -19t net seen in May, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the inflows were recorded in North America (+44t) and Europe (+23t). Overall, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 536t net (~10% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, the expected additional US fed rate cuts in 2H25, as well as geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2H25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 75t of gold net in June, reversing from the -19t net seen in May, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the inflows were recorded in North America (+44t) and Europe (+23t). Overall, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 536t net (~10% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, the expected additional US fed rate cuts in 2H25, as well as geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for mid-2025 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2H25-2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany declined 6% YoY in June, vs. the 1% YoY gain seen in May. Sales remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-20% vs. June 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 27% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 23% and 21% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 14% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were 9% beneath the 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched down YoY last month, and remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany declined 6% YoY in June, vs. the 1% YoY gain seen in May. Sales remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-20% vs. June 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 27% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 23% and 21% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 14% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were 9% beneath the 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched down YoY last month, and remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 13% YoY in June (domestic + export), accelerating from the +2% YoY in May, according to CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 6% YoY (still -52% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, new Chinese fiscal stimulus in 2H25 (in addition to the recently announced package), if it materialises, would spur a recovery of the local real estate sector, which started to gradually bottom out in 2H24, we believe. Furthermore, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Overall, these measures might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in late-2025 or 2026, in our view
#steel
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 13% YoY in June (domestic + export), accelerating from the +2% YoY in May, according to CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 6% YoY (still -52% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, new Chinese fiscal stimulus in 2H25 (in addition to the recently announced package), if it materialises, would spur a recovery of the local real estate sector, which started to gradually bottom out in 2H24, we believe. Furthermore, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Overall, these measures might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in late-2025 or 2026, in our view
#steel
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