Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in late-May was reported at 2.09mnt, down 4.9% from the previous ten days, and 3.9% lower YoY. Local steel inventories decreased 6.4% over the period, but were still up 5.0% YoY
Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 30 May), production was still up slightly (+0.7% YoY), according to the CISA data, despite Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, market participants estimate
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in late-May was reported at 2.09mnt, down 4.9% from the previous ten days, and 3.9% lower YoY. Local steel inventories decreased 6.4% over the period, but were still up 5.0% YoY
Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 30 May), production was still up slightly (+0.7% YoY), according to the CISA data, despite Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, market participants estimate
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 7% YoY in May vs. after being flat YoY in April, according to the NBS data. This sharp decline is likely related to Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates); in 5mo25 the output slid 2% YoY, per official statistics
🏢China's property sales slid 5% YoY in May, after the -3% YoY in April, and were down 56% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 19% YoY in May (-74% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans decreased 9% YoY in May (-58% vs. 2021), while property completions declined 19% YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 7% YoY in May vs. after being flat YoY in April, according to the NBS data. This sharp decline is likely related to Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates); in 5mo25 the output slid 2% YoY, per official statistics
🏢China's property sales slid 5% YoY in May, after the -3% YoY in April, and were down 56% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 19% YoY in May (-74% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans decreased 9% YoY in May (-58% vs. 2021), while property completions declined 19% YoY
#steel #property
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for May (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 11% YoY in May (vs. +10% YoY in April)
📌China’s new ICE car sales declined 6% YoY in May, vs. the -10% YoY in April. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) rose 1% YoY, as solid hybrid registrations offset the slowdown in pure ICE sales in recent months. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China surged 37% YoY in May, being broadly in-line with the +44% YoY in April. Specifically, BEV sales (64% of total EV registrations) gained 43% YoY, while PHEVs added 27% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 11% YoY in May (vs. +10% YoY in April)
📌China’s new ICE car sales declined 6% YoY in May, vs. the -10% YoY in April. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) rose 1% YoY, as solid hybrid registrations offset the slowdown in pure ICE sales in recent months. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China surged 37% YoY in May, being broadly in-line with the +44% YoY in April. Specifically, BEV sales (64% of total EV registrations) gained 43% YoY, while PHEVs added 27% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-June was reported at 2.16mnt, up 3.2% from the previous ten days, but 3.7% lower YoY. Local steel inventories rose 3.2% over the period, but were down 1.8% YoY
Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 10 June), production was still up slightly (+1.0% YoY), according to CISA data, despite Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025. However, according to official data, after a sharp decline in May, the country's output was down 1.7% YoY in 5mo25
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-June was reported at 2.16mnt, up 3.2% from the previous ten days, but 3.7% lower YoY. Local steel inventories rose 3.2% over the period, but were down 1.8% YoY
Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 10 June), production was still up slightly (+1.0% YoY), according to CISA data, despite Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025. However, according to official data, after a sharp decline in May, the country's output was down 1.7% YoY in 5mo25
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 2% YoY in May (domestic + export) vs. +18% YoY in April, according to CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales inched down 1% YoY (still being 62% below the same period in 2021)
In our view, the additional Chinese stimulus expected in 2025 (in addition to the recently announced package) could spur recovery in the local real estate sector, which started to gradually bottom out in 2H24. Furthermore, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Overall, these measures might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2025, we believe
#Steel
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 2% YoY in May (domestic + export) vs. +18% YoY in April, according to CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales inched down 1% YoY (still being 62% below the same period in 2021)
In our view, the additional Chinese stimulus expected in 2025 (in addition to the recently announced package) could spur recovery in the local real estate sector, which started to gradually bottom out in 2H24. Furthermore, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Overall, these measures might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2025, we believe
#Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎India’s rough diamond net imports fell 11% YoY in May, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in April. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports dropped 35% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports rose 2% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 6% of total trading
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade), would become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports fell 11% YoY in May, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in April. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports dropped 35% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports rose 2% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 6% of total trading
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade), would become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
Morning Bites
💍Chow Tai Fook’s 1Q25 LFL sales fell 10% YoY in the gem-set, platinum and K-gold jewellery segment (vs. -6% YoY in 4Q24), the company has reported. Specifically, the retailer’s sales in the gem-set segment in Mainland China were down 12% YoY (vs. -20% YoY in 4Q24), while HK and Macau sales slid 5% YoY (vs. -34% YoY in 4Q24)
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories and lagging downstream demand recovery in China. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade) would become a favorable factor for consumer confidence, we believe
#diamonds
💍Chow Tai Fook’s 1Q25 LFL sales fell 10% YoY in the gem-set, platinum and K-gold jewellery segment (vs. -6% YoY in 4Q24), the company has reported. Specifically, the retailer’s sales in the gem-set segment in Mainland China were down 12% YoY (vs. -20% YoY in 4Q24), while HK and Macau sales slid 5% YoY (vs. -34% YoY in 4Q24)
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories and lagging downstream demand recovery in China. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade) would become a favorable factor for consumer confidence, we believe
#diamonds
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Morning Bites
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales surged 30% YoY in May, in line with April's sales dynamics, and hit a near-record value for this month, per NBS data. However, the positive dynamics have most likely reflected high gold prices, according to Rapaport, with Chinese diamond market overall being soft in May
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories and lagging downstream demand recovery in China
#diamonds
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales surged 30% YoY in May, in line with April's sales dynamics, and hit a near-record value for this month, per NBS data. However, the positive dynamics have most likely reflected high gold prices, according to Rapaport, with Chinese diamond market overall being soft in May
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories and lagging downstream demand recovery in China
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 1.9% YoY in May, vs. the +2.6% YoY in April, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) increased 2.4% YoY last month, while ex. China output rose 1.1% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which we expect to reach USD 2,700-2,900/t by late 2025 - early 2026
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 43.7mnt in 5mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 1.9% YoY in May, vs. the +2.6% YoY in April, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) increased 2.4% YoY last month, while ex. China output rose 1.1% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which we expect to reach USD 2,700-2,900/t by late 2025 - early 2026
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 43.7mnt in 5mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
#aluminium
Morning Bites
📉China’s output of aluminium products slid 3% YoY to 5.8mnt in May, vs. -1% YoY in April. In our view, the expansion of the grid and new energy sector in China (~60% of global consumption), combined with the Al output cap in China, remain among key factors, bolstering Al fundamentals
🥉China's output of copper products jumped 19% YoY in May to 2.1mnt, vs. the +15% YoY in April. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t by late-2025 or early-2026). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
📉China’s output of aluminium products slid 3% YoY to 5.8mnt in May, vs. -1% YoY in April. In our view, the expansion of the grid and new energy sector in China (~60% of global consumption), combined with the Al output cap in China, remain among key factors, bolstering Al fundamentals
🥉China's output of copper products jumped 19% YoY in May to 2.1mnt, vs. the +15% YoY in April. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t by late-2025 or early-2026). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output dropped 4% YoY, to 159mnt in May, after being flat YoY in April, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (55% of global crude steel supply in May) dropped 7% YoY (-2% YoY in 5mo25), while world ex-China output was flat YoY, per WSA data. Meanwhile, Russia’s production also dropped 7% YoY last month; EU output shrank 3% YoY. US production inched up 2% YoY, while Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) gained 10% YoY, also increasing 8% YoY in 5mo25
We remind readers that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might mean a decline 2-5% YoY, per market estimates), which is likely to cool down surging Chinese steel exports, and support global prices in 2H25, we believe
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output dropped 4% YoY, to 159mnt in May, after being flat YoY in April, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (55% of global crude steel supply in May) dropped 7% YoY (-2% YoY in 5mo25), while world ex-China output was flat YoY, per WSA data. Meanwhile, Russia’s production also dropped 7% YoY last month; EU output shrank 3% YoY. US production inched up 2% YoY, while Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) gained 10% YoY, also increasing 8% YoY in 5mo25
We remind readers that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might mean a decline 2-5% YoY, per market estimates), which is likely to cool down surging Chinese steel exports, and support global prices in 2H25, we believe
#steel
Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production jumped 5.4% YoY in April, vs. the revised +3.5% YoY in March, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Production was up 2.1% YoY on the 4mo25 basis: growth in Peru (+5.0% YoY) and the DRC (+8.0% YoY) was mainly offset by a slowdown in Canada and Indonesia (-42% YoY), due to lower output at the Grasberg mine amid planned major maintenance works. Further production dynamics will be under pressure, given the suspension of Kakula (~1.5% of global and ~10% of Congolese Cu output). Apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow, up 3.3% YoY in 4mo25, mainly driven by China (+6.0% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers). Meanwhile, further progress in US-China trade negotiations is also favourable for sentiment on base metals globally
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production jumped 5.4% YoY in April, vs. the revised +3.5% YoY in March, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Production was up 2.1% YoY on the 4mo25 basis: growth in Peru (+5.0% YoY) and the DRC (+8.0% YoY) was mainly offset by a slowdown in Canada and Indonesia (-42% YoY), due to lower output at the Grasberg mine amid planned major maintenance works. Further production dynamics will be under pressure, given the suspension of Kakula (~1.5% of global and ~10% of Congolese Cu output). Apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow, up 3.3% YoY in 4mo25, mainly driven by China (+6.0% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers). Meanwhile, further progress in US-China trade negotiations is also favourable for sentiment on base metals globally
#copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🥈Solar panel installations in China surged 5.6x YoY in May, vs. the 3.2x YoY growth in April, per NEA data, as some key subsidies were planned to expire in June, as investment in grid infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the installation of solar capacity. The figure was also up 2.4x YoY in 5mo25
Meanwhile, overall photovoltaic cell output in China grew 7% YoY in May, decelerating from the 32% gain in April (and was up 28% YoY on 5mo25 basis)
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
🥈Solar panel installations in China surged 5.6x YoY in May, vs. the 3.2x YoY growth in April, per NEA data, as some key subsidies were planned to expire in June, as investment in grid infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the installation of solar capacity. The figure was also up 2.4x YoY in 5mo25
Meanwhile, overall photovoltaic cell output in China grew 7% YoY in May, decelerating from the 32% gain in April (and was up 28% YoY on 5mo25 basis)
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China surged 51% YoY in May, vs. the 2.2x YoY growth in April, per NBS data. The figure was also up 78% YoY in 5mo25. Meanwhile, investment in China’s grid infrastructure jumped 33% YoY in May (vs. the -2% YoY in April) and was up 20% YoY on 5mo25 basis
Although State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically, the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China surged 51% YoY in May, vs. the 2.2x YoY growth in April, per NBS data. The figure was also up 78% YoY in 5mo25. Meanwhile, investment in China’s grid infrastructure jumped 33% YoY in May (vs. the -2% YoY in April) and was up 20% YoY on 5mo25 basis
Although State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically, the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium