Morning Bites (part 1)
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs were broadly weak in May. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (vs. 49.0 in April), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI slid to 48.5
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China inched up to 49.5 (vs. 49.0 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI slid to 48.3
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 57.6 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, global PMI indices were below 50.0 in May, underlining the weakness of local manufacturing activity, exept India, with PMI continuously over 55.0. Meanwhile, we reiterate our view that the additional Chinese stimulus we expect in 2025 (in addition to the recently announced package) might bolster local demand for industrial metals this year (e.g. aluminum and copper)
#PMIs
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs were broadly weak in May. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (vs. 49.0 in April), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI slid to 48.5
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China inched up to 49.5 (vs. 49.0 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI slid to 48.3
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 57.6 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, global PMI indices were below 50.0 in May, underlining the weakness of local manufacturing activity, exept India, with PMI continuously over 55.0. Meanwhile, we reiterate our view that the additional Chinese stimulus we expect in 2025 (in addition to the recently announced package) might bolster local demand for industrial metals this year (e.g. aluminum and copper)
#PMIs
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏦 Global central banks purchased 12t of gold net in April, vs. the +21t in March marking the 23rd consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports. The National Bank of Poland remains the leading buyer: both in April (+12t) and on a YTD basis (+61t), per official data. On the sellers side again was Uzbekistan, which sold 11t
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz); however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as continuous geopolitical tensions and trade war uncertainties
#gold
🏦 Global central banks purchased 12t of gold net in April, vs. the +21t in March marking the 23rd consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports. The National Bank of Poland remains the leading buyer: both in April (+12t) and on a YTD basis (+61t), per official data. On the sellers side again was Uzbekistan, which sold 11t
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz); however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as continuous geopolitical tensions and trade war uncertainties
#gold
Morning Bites
💎US jewellery sales inched up 1% YoY in April, after being flat YoY in March, IDEX reports, citing local Department of Commerce data. According to Rapaport, suppliers were keeping more inventory in the US, while retailers showed steady interest, especially in fancy-shape diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales slid 2% YoY in April, vs. the -3% YoY seen in March, per government data. According to Rapaport, local diamond demand remains weak with modest MoM improvement
Diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025
#diamonds
💎US jewellery sales inched up 1% YoY in April, after being flat YoY in March, IDEX reports, citing local Department of Commerce data. According to Rapaport, suppliers were keeping more inventory in the US, while retailers showed steady interest, especially in fancy-shape diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales slid 2% YoY in April, vs. the -3% YoY seen in March, per government data. According to Rapaport, local diamond demand remains weak with modest MoM improvement
Diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025
#diamonds
Morning Bites
📉Gold-backed ETFs sold 19t of gold net in May, after the +115t in April, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the outflows were recorded in North America (-16t). However, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 462t net (~10% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) as well as geopolitical unrest. These factors are still in place and the ETF outflows are unlikely to be sustainable, in our view
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2025, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
📉Gold-backed ETFs sold 19t of gold net in May, after the +115t in April, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the outflows were recorded in North America (-16t). However, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 462t net (~10% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) as well as geopolitical unrest. These factors are still in place and the ETF outflows are unlikely to be sustainable, in our view
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2025, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for May (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🔗China’s net finished steel exports were up 12% YoY in May, after the 16% YoY gain in April, amid persistently soft domestic demand and tariff war fears, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, the Chinese authorities are considering cutting local steel output in 2025, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year. On our numbers a 2-3% output cut could normalise abnormal Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024)
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 18% YoY in May, broadly in-line with the -16% YoY in April. According to Reuters, the negative dynamics seen in recent months was both due to a high base effect from 2024 (when a series of mine accidents in Shanxi coal hub drove up imports) and record coal output coupled with soft domestic demand that led to elevated inventories
#coal #steel
🔗China’s net finished steel exports were up 12% YoY in May, after the 16% YoY gain in April, amid persistently soft domestic demand and tariff war fears, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, the Chinese authorities are considering cutting local steel output in 2025, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year. On our numbers a 2-3% output cut could normalise abnormal Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024)
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 18% YoY in May, broadly in-line with the -16% YoY in April. According to Reuters, the negative dynamics seen in recent months was both due to a high base effect from 2024 (when a series of mine accidents in Shanxi coal hub drove up imports) and record coal output coupled with soft domestic demand that led to elevated inventories
#coal #steel
Morning Bites
💎LFL rough prices at Petra Diamonds combined April-June auction grew 3% vs. February tender, the company has reported. However, on a YTD basis, the LFL prices were still down 16% YoY, with the deepest decline seen in smaller size categories
Petra stated it would now be holding tenders on ad-hoc basis, and reporting quarterly instead of after each auction, amid fluctuations in diamond prices and demand
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world polished demand) might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
#diamonds
💎LFL rough prices at Petra Diamonds combined April-June auction grew 3% vs. February tender, the company has reported. However, on a YTD basis, the LFL prices were still down 16% YoY, with the deepest decline seen in smaller size categories
Petra stated it would now be holding tenders on ad-hoc basis, and reporting quarterly instead of after each auction, amid fluctuations in diamond prices and demand
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world polished demand) might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in late-May was reported at 2.09mnt, down 4.9% from the previous ten days, and 3.9% lower YoY. Local steel inventories decreased 6.4% over the period, but were still up 5.0% YoY
Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 30 May), production was still up slightly (+0.7% YoY), according to the CISA data, despite Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, market participants estimate
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in late-May was reported at 2.09mnt, down 4.9% from the previous ten days, and 3.9% lower YoY. Local steel inventories decreased 6.4% over the period, but were still up 5.0% YoY
Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 30 May), production was still up slightly (+0.7% YoY), according to the CISA data, despite Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025. To recap, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, market participants estimate
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 7% YoY in May vs. after being flat YoY in April, according to the NBS data. This sharp decline is likely related to Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates); in 5mo25 the output slid 2% YoY, per official statistics
🏢China's property sales slid 5% YoY in May, after the -3% YoY in April, and were down 56% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 19% YoY in May (-74% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans decreased 9% YoY in May (-58% vs. 2021), while property completions declined 19% YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped 7% YoY in May vs. after being flat YoY in April, according to the NBS data. This sharp decline is likely related to Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates); in 5mo25 the output slid 2% YoY, per official statistics
🏢China's property sales slid 5% YoY in May, after the -3% YoY in April, and were down 56% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 19% YoY in May (-74% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans decreased 9% YoY in May (-58% vs. 2021), while property completions declined 19% YoY
#steel #property
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for May (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 11% YoY in May (vs. +10% YoY in April)
📌China’s new ICE car sales declined 6% YoY in May, vs. the -10% YoY in April. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) rose 1% YoY, as solid hybrid registrations offset the slowdown in pure ICE sales in recent months. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China surged 37% YoY in May, being broadly in-line with the +44% YoY in April. Specifically, BEV sales (64% of total EV registrations) gained 43% YoY, while PHEVs added 27% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 11% YoY in May (vs. +10% YoY in April)
📌China’s new ICE car sales declined 6% YoY in May, vs. the -10% YoY in April. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) rose 1% YoY, as solid hybrid registrations offset the slowdown in pure ICE sales in recent months. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China surged 37% YoY in May, being broadly in-line with the +44% YoY in April. Specifically, BEV sales (64% of total EV registrations) gained 43% YoY, while PHEVs added 27% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-June was reported at 2.16mnt, up 3.2% from the previous ten days, but 3.7% lower YoY. Local steel inventories rose 3.2% over the period, but were down 1.8% YoY
Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 10 June), production was still up slightly (+1.0% YoY), according to CISA data, despite Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025. However, according to official data, after a sharp decline in May, the country's output was down 1.7% YoY in 5mo25
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-June was reported at 2.16mnt, up 3.2% from the previous ten days, but 3.7% lower YoY. Local steel inventories rose 3.2% over the period, but were down 1.8% YoY
Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 10 June), production was still up slightly (+1.0% YoY), according to CISA data, despite Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025. However, according to official data, after a sharp decline in May, the country's output was down 1.7% YoY in 5mo25
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 2% YoY in May (domestic + export) vs. +18% YoY in April, according to CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales inched down 1% YoY (still being 62% below the same period in 2021)
In our view, the additional Chinese stimulus expected in 2025 (in addition to the recently announced package) could spur recovery in the local real estate sector, which started to gradually bottom out in 2H24. Furthermore, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Overall, these measures might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2025, we believe
#Steel
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 2% YoY in May (domestic + export) vs. +18% YoY in April, according to CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales inched down 1% YoY (still being 62% below the same period in 2021)
In our view, the additional Chinese stimulus expected in 2025 (in addition to the recently announced package) could spur recovery in the local real estate sector, which started to gradually bottom out in 2H24. Furthermore, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Overall, these measures might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2025, we believe
#Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎India’s rough diamond net imports fell 11% YoY in May, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in April. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports dropped 35% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports rose 2% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 6% of total trading
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade), would become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports fell 11% YoY in May, vs. the flat YoY dynamics seen in April. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports dropped 35% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports rose 2% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 6% of total trading
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in 2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade), would become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
Morning Bites
💍Chow Tai Fook’s 1Q25 LFL sales fell 10% YoY in the gem-set, platinum and K-gold jewellery segment (vs. -6% YoY in 4Q24), the company has reported. Specifically, the retailer’s sales in the gem-set segment in Mainland China were down 12% YoY (vs. -20% YoY in 4Q24), while HK and Macau sales slid 5% YoY (vs. -34% YoY in 4Q24)
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories and lagging downstream demand recovery in China. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade) would become a favorable factor for consumer confidence, we believe
#diamonds
💍Chow Tai Fook’s 1Q25 LFL sales fell 10% YoY in the gem-set, platinum and K-gold jewellery segment (vs. -6% YoY in 4Q24), the company has reported. Specifically, the retailer’s sales in the gem-set segment in Mainland China were down 12% YoY (vs. -20% YoY in 4Q24), while HK and Macau sales slid 5% YoY (vs. -34% YoY in 4Q24)
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories and lagging downstream demand recovery in China. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade) would become a favorable factor for consumer confidence, we believe
#diamonds
👍1
Morning Bites
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales surged 30% YoY in May, in line with April's sales dynamics, and hit a near-record value for this month, per NBS data. However, the positive dynamics have most likely reflected high gold prices, according to Rapaport, with Chinese diamond market overall being soft in May
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories and lagging downstream demand recovery in China
#diamonds
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales surged 30% YoY in May, in line with April's sales dynamics, and hit a near-record value for this month, per NBS data. However, the positive dynamics have most likely reflected high gold prices, according to Rapaport, with Chinese diamond market overall being soft in May
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories and lagging downstream demand recovery in China
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 1.9% YoY in May, vs. the +2.6% YoY in April, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) increased 2.4% YoY last month, while ex. China output rose 1.1% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which we expect to reach USD 2,700-2,900/t by late 2025 - early 2026
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 43.7mnt in 5mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 1.9% YoY in May, vs. the +2.6% YoY in April, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) increased 2.4% YoY last month, while ex. China output rose 1.1% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which we expect to reach USD 2,700-2,900/t by late 2025 - early 2026
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 43.7mnt in 5mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
#aluminium