Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-May was reported at 2.20mnt, in line with the previous ten days, and up 0.6% YoY. Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 10 May), the output rose 2.0% YoY, per CISA data. Local steel inventories rose 5.0% over the period (-1.4% YoY)
We remind our readers that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates); China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-May was reported at 2.20mnt, in line with the previous ten days, and up 0.6% YoY. Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 10 May), the output rose 2.0% YoY, per CISA data. Local steel inventories rose 5.0% over the period (-1.4% YoY)
We remind our readers that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates); China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for April (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output was flat YoY in April vs. the +5% YoY in March, according to the NBS data. Although Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates), it was still up <1% YoY in 4mo25, per official statistics
🏢China's property sales slid 3% YoY in April, after the -2% YoY in March, and were down 55% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 22% YoY in April (-73% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans slid 13% YoY in April (-60% vs. 2021), while property completions declined 28% YoY
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output was flat YoY in April vs. the +5% YoY in March, according to the NBS data. Although Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates), it was still up <1% YoY in 4mo25, per official statistics
🏢China's property sales slid 3% YoY in April, after the -2% YoY in March, and were down 55% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 22% YoY in April (-73% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans slid 13% YoY in April (-60% vs. 2021), while property completions declined 28% YoY
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏗China’s excavator sales increased 18% YoY in April (domestic + export) - in line with March dynamics, according to CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales rose 16% YoY (but were still 69% below the same period in 2021): upbeat Chinese excavator sales might indicate improving sentiment around local construction activity in 2025
In our view, the additional Chinese stimulus expected in 2025 (in addition to the recently announced package) could spur recovery in the Chinese real estate sector, which started to gradually bottom out in 2H24. Furthermore, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Overall, these measures might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2025, we believe
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s excavator sales increased 18% YoY in April (domestic + export) - in line with March dynamics, according to CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales rose 16% YoY (but were still 69% below the same period in 2021): upbeat Chinese excavator sales might indicate improving sentiment around local construction activity in 2025
In our view, the additional Chinese stimulus expected in 2025 (in addition to the recently announced package) could spur recovery in the Chinese real estate sector, which started to gradually bottom out in 2H24. Furthermore, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Overall, these measures might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2025, we believe
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output dropped 10% YoY in March, vs. the -24% YoY in February, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production also fell 11% YoY, after the 8% YoY drop in February. According to local media, heavy rains disrupted domestic mining output in 1Q25, while high cost of electricity (Eskom lifted its tariffs by a further 13% in early 2025) also remains a serious constraint for South African miners
In our view, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging the production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which might be even replaced with a new USD 1,000 EV purchase tax) could bolster the PGM prices recovery in 2025
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output dropped 10% YoY in March, vs. the -24% YoY in February, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production also fell 11% YoY, after the 8% YoY drop in February. According to local media, heavy rains disrupted domestic mining output in 1Q25, while high cost of electricity (Eskom lifted its tariffs by a further 13% in early 2025) also remains a serious constraint for South African miners
In our view, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging the production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which might be even replaced with a new USD 1,000 EV purchase tax) could bolster the PGM prices recovery in 2025
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales grew 12% YoY in 1Q25, vs. the +14% in 4Q24, according to a press-release from the retailer. Richemont highlights notable improvement in the Jewellery Maisons business unit in 4Q24-1Q25, where the slowdown in Asia Pacific sales is being offset by higher demand from the company's Japan and Americas regions
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade), if materialised, might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales grew 12% YoY in 1Q25, vs. the +14% in 4Q24, according to a press-release from the retailer. Richemont highlights notable improvement in the Jewellery Maisons business unit in 4Q24-1Q25, where the slowdown in Asia Pacific sales is being offset by higher demand from the company's Japan and Americas regions
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade), if materialised, might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
👍1
Morning Bites (part 1)
📌Johnson Matthey expects balanced Pd and deep-deficit Pt markets in 2025
🚗 According to JM, global Pd-Pt demand from the automotive sector is set to decline 5% YoY in 2025, taking into account trade-war concerns and the fact gasoline cars are losing share to BEVs, especially in China. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector accounted for 18% and 17% of global Pt and Pd demand, respectively, last year
📊 In 2025 JM sees a ~10% deficit on the global Pt market, as it less exposed to the downturn in automotive demand due to diversified demand structure; Pd is expected to shift into a balanced state after 5% deficit in 2024 as it more dependent on autocatalyst demand (~85% of Pd consumption)
⛏On the supply side, according to JM, primary Pt and Pd supply are expected to fall 3-4% YoY in 2025, mainly driven by workforce 'rationalisation programmes' in South Africa, as well as planned production cuts in North America, amid continuously weak prices
#PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
📌Johnson Matthey expects balanced Pd and deep-deficit Pt markets in 2025
🚗 According to JM, global Pd-Pt demand from the automotive sector is set to decline 5% YoY in 2025, taking into account trade-war concerns and the fact gasoline cars are losing share to BEVs, especially in China. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector accounted for 18% and 17% of global Pt and Pd demand, respectively, last year
📊 In 2025 JM sees a ~10% deficit on the global Pt market, as it less exposed to the downturn in automotive demand due to diversified demand structure; Pd is expected to shift into a balanced state after 5% deficit in 2024 as it more dependent on autocatalyst demand (~85% of Pd consumption)
⛏On the supply side, according to JM, primary Pt and Pd supply are expected to fall 3-4% YoY in 2025, mainly driven by workforce 'rationalisation programmes' in South Africa, as well as planned production cuts in North America, amid continuously weak prices
#PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏦 China’s aggregate financing was at CNY 2.19tn in April, vs. a negative reading recorded last year, and after the 1% YoY decline in March. Specifically, traditional bank loans dropped 62% YoY in April (seasonally slow and volatile month), as new loans slumped sharply and credit expanded at a slower pace than expected in April, as trade tensions with the US harmed sentiment
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🏦 China’s aggregate financing was at CNY 2.19tn in April, vs. a negative reading recorded last year, and after the 1% YoY decline in March. Specifically, traditional bank loans dropped 62% YoY in April (seasonally slow and volatile month), as new loans slumped sharply and credit expanded at a slower pace than expected in April, as trade tensions with the US harmed sentiment
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 2.6% YoY in April, in line with the revised dynamics in March, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) increased 3.5% YoY last month, while ex. China output inched up 0.8% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which we expect to reach USD 2,700-2,900/t by late 2025 - early 2026
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 43.4mnt in 4mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 2.6% YoY in April, in line with the revised dynamics in March, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) increased 3.5% YoY last month, while ex. China output inched up 0.8% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which we expect to reach USD 2,700-2,900/t by late 2025 - early 2026
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 43.4mnt in 4mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
#aluminium
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output was flat YoY, standing at 156mnt in April, after the 3% YoY gain seen in March, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (55% of global crude steel supply in April) was also unchanged, per WSA data. Meanwhile, Russia’s production dropped 5% YoY last month, while EU output shrank 3% YoY. Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) gained 6% YoY, also being up 7% YoY in 4mo25
We remind our readers that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (2-5% YoY, per market estimates), which is likely to cool down surging Chinese steel exports, and support global prices in 2025, we believe
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗Global crude steel output was flat YoY, standing at 156mnt in April, after the 3% YoY gain seen in March, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (55% of global crude steel supply in April) was also unchanged, per WSA data. Meanwhile, Russia’s production dropped 5% YoY last month, while EU output shrank 3% YoY. Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) gained 6% YoY, also being up 7% YoY in 4mo25
We remind our readers that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (2-5% YoY, per market estimates), which is likely to cool down surging Chinese steel exports, and support global prices in 2025, we believe
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites
🇨🇳Investment in China’s grid infrastructure slid 2% YoY in April, after the +18% YoY in March, per NBS AA data. The figure was also up 15% YoY in 4mo25. On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
Although State Grid sees only a 10% YoY CapEx increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically, the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
🥈Solar panel installations in China surged 3.2x YoY in April, vs. +65% YoY in March, per NEA data, as some subsidies were planned to expire in May-June to alleviate pressure on grid. The figure was also up 61% YoY in 4mo25. Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, Cu and Al, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
🇨🇳Investment in China’s grid infrastructure slid 2% YoY in April, after the +18% YoY in March, per NBS AA data. The figure was also up 15% YoY in 4mo25. On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
Although State Grid sees only a 10% YoY CapEx increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically, the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
🥈Solar panel installations in China surged 3.2x YoY in April, vs. +65% YoY in March, per NEA data, as some subsidies were planned to expire in May-June to alleviate pressure on grid. The figure was also up 61% YoY in 4mo25. Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, Cu and Al, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
Morning Bites
⛏️ Ivanhoe has again suspended underground activities at its Kakula mine in the DRC due to seismic activity, according to a company press-release. Following the previous suspension of underground operations announced on May 20, management now expects the seismic activity to continue for weeks. Furthermore, Ivanhoe notes increased water inflows into the mine, so the company's 2025 production and cost guidance has been withdrawn pending review
Given Kakula is one of the ten largest copper mines in the world, with 2024 production of 380kt (~1.5% of global Cu output), the protracted supply disruption, if it materialised, might additionally widen the market deficit in 2025. In our view, this is a supportive factor for the Cu price, which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t by late 2025 or early 2026
#copper
⛏️ Ivanhoe has again suspended underground activities at its Kakula mine in the DRC due to seismic activity, according to a company press-release. Following the previous suspension of underground operations announced on May 20, management now expects the seismic activity to continue for weeks. Furthermore, Ivanhoe notes increased water inflows into the mine, so the company's 2025 production and cost guidance has been withdrawn pending review
Given Kakula is one of the ten largest copper mines in the world, with 2024 production of 380kt (~1.5% of global Cu output), the protracted supply disruption, if it materialised, might additionally widen the market deficit in 2025. In our view, this is a supportive factor for the Cu price, which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t by late 2025 or early 2026
#copper
Morning Bites
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations were flat YoY in April, vs. +3% YoY in March. The growth was mainly driven by BEV sales (+30% YoY in April), while catalyst-containing car registrations slid 5% YoY; the figure matched our estimates, remaining 20% below the pre-COVID 2019 level
We maintain our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging the production of catalyst-containing cars), and the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which could even be replaced with USD 1,000 new EV purchase tax), might bolster PGM market fundamentals
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations were flat YoY in April, vs. +3% YoY in March. The growth was mainly driven by BEV sales (+30% YoY in April), while catalyst-containing car registrations slid 5% YoY; the figure matched our estimates, remaining 20% below the pre-COVID 2019 level
We maintain our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging the production of catalyst-containing cars), and the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which could even be replaced with USD 1,000 new EV purchase tax), might bolster PGM market fundamentals
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in mid-May was reported at 2.20mnt, down 0.3% vs. the previous ten days, and 0.5% lower YoY. Local steel inventories increased 1.8% over the period, but were down 2.8% YoY
Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 20 May), production dynamics remain upbeat (+1.8% YoY, per CISA's data), despite Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025. To recap, these measures which might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in mid-May was reported at 2.20mnt, down 0.3% vs. the previous ten days, and 0.5% lower YoY. Local steel inventories increased 1.8% over the period, but were down 2.8% YoY
Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 20 May), production dynamics remain upbeat (+1.8% YoY, per CISA's data), despite Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025. To recap, these measures which might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🥉Global mined copper production jumped 3.6% YoY in March, vs. the revised -1.6% YoY in February, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Meanwhile, production was up 1.1% YoY in 1Q25: growth in Peru (+4.0% YoY) and the DRC (+7.0% YoY) was mainly offset by a slowdown in Chile and Indonesia. Apparent consumption dynamics continued to be ahead of mine supply in 1Q25, being up 3.0% YoY, mainly driven by China (+4.5% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers); however, tariff wars, if they further escalate, would imply additional risks for the demand for base metals
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production jumped 3.6% YoY in March, vs. the revised -1.6% YoY in February, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Meanwhile, production was up 1.1% YoY in 1Q25: growth in Peru (+4.0% YoY) and the DRC (+7.0% YoY) was mainly offset by a slowdown in Chile and Indonesia. Apparent consumption dynamics continued to be ahead of mine supply in 1Q25, being up 3.0% YoY, mainly driven by China (+4.5% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers); however, tariff wars, if they further escalate, would imply additional risks for the demand for base metals
#copper
Morning Bites
📈Russia’s gold output rose 8.0% YoY in April, after the 6.9% YoY gain in March, per Rosstat data. The country’s production in 4mo25 was up 2.6% YoY. Russia accounts for ~10% of the world's mined gold supply
We maintain our view that gold is trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), but we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2025, given steady inflows and geopolitical tensions
#gold
📈Russia’s gold output rose 8.0% YoY in April, after the 6.9% YoY gain in March, per Rosstat data. The country’s production in 4mo25 was up 2.6% YoY. Russia accounts for ~10% of the world's mined gold supply
We maintain our view that gold is trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), but we expect the precious metal’s price to remain elevated in 2025, given steady inflows and geopolitical tensions
#gold
Morning Bites
📉China’s output of aluminium products inched down 1% YoY to 5.8mnt in April, in line with March dynamics. We maintain our positive view on aluminium, given the rapid expansion of the new energy sector in China (~60% of global consumption), as well as limited potential for additional supply growth. Note that Al output in China is capped at 45mnt (while it produced 43.4mnt in 4mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
🥉China's output of copper products jumped 15% YoY in April to 2.1mnt, vs. +6% in March. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t by late-2025 or early-2026). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
📉China’s output of aluminium products inched down 1% YoY to 5.8mnt in April, in line with March dynamics. We maintain our positive view on aluminium, given the rapid expansion of the new energy sector in China (~60% of global consumption), as well as limited potential for additional supply growth. Note that Al output in China is capped at 45mnt (while it produced 43.4mnt in 4mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
🥉China's output of copper products jumped 15% YoY in April to 2.1mnt, vs. +6% in March. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t by late-2025 or early-2026). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎Global rough diamond supply fell 3% YoY to 108mnct* in 2024, after a 8% decline YoY in 2023, per Kimberley Process data. Specifically, Botswana's output (* - adjusted to De Beers data) was down 27% YoY, while production in Russia was flat YoY at 37.3mnct
Following the supply contraction in 2024, diamond exports (from the 12 key producing countries) declined 7% YoY (vs. -8% YoY in 2023). However, according to industry reports, in early-2025 De Beers sold its rough stones at discounts to selected traders, indicating a possible breakdown in the price-over-volume strategy
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world polished demand) might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
#diamonds
💎Global rough diamond supply fell 3% YoY to 108mnct* in 2024, after a 8% decline YoY in 2023, per Kimberley Process data. Specifically, Botswana's output (* - adjusted to De Beers data) was down 27% YoY, while production in Russia was flat YoY at 37.3mnct
Following the supply contraction in 2024, diamond exports (from the 12 key producing countries) declined 7% YoY (vs. -8% YoY in 2023). However, according to industry reports, in early-2025 De Beers sold its rough stones at discounts to selected traders, indicating a possible breakdown in the price-over-volume strategy
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world polished demand) might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
#diamonds