Morning Bites
💎US jewellery sales were flat YoY in March, in-line with February's dynamics, IDEX reports, citing the local Department of Commerce data. According to Rapaport, the US retail market was stable in March, but uncertainty ahead of the announcement of tariffs led some wholesalers to curtail purchases
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales were down 3% YoY in March, vs. the 13% YoY decline in February, per government data. According to Rapaport, over the last few months, visitors have been turning away from luxury purchases, while HK residents have been spending money while traveling abroad rather than domestically
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025 and the ongoing escalation in the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade) affecting consumer confidence
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎US jewellery sales were flat YoY in March, in-line with February's dynamics, IDEX reports, citing the local Department of Commerce data. According to Rapaport, the US retail market was stable in March, but uncertainty ahead of the announcement of tariffs led some wholesalers to curtail purchases
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales were down 3% YoY in March, vs. the 13% YoY decline in February, per government data. According to Rapaport, over the last few months, visitors have been turning away from luxury purchases, while HK residents have been spending money while traveling abroad rather than domestically
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025 and the ongoing escalation in the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade) affecting consumer confidence
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
🗞On Friday, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for April (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports jumped 16% YoY in April, after the 7% YoY gain in March, amid persistently soft domestic demand. To recap, the Chinese authorities are considering cutting local steel output in 2025, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year. On our numbers a 2-3% output cut could normalise abnormal Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024)
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 16% YoY in April, accelerating from the -6% YoY in March. According to Reuters, the decrease was both due to a high base effect from 2024 (when a series of mine accidents in Shanxi coal hub drove up imports) and record output coupled with soft domestic demand that led to elevated inventories
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🔗China’s net finished steel exports jumped 16% YoY in April, after the 7% YoY gain in March, amid persistently soft domestic demand. To recap, the Chinese authorities are considering cutting local steel output in 2025, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year. On our numbers a 2-3% output cut could normalise abnormal Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024)
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 16% YoY in April, accelerating from the -6% YoY in March. According to Reuters, the decrease was both due to a high base effect from 2024 (when a series of mine accidents in Shanxi coal hub drove up imports) and record output coupled with soft domestic demand that led to elevated inventories
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 115t of gold net in April, after the +92t in March, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the Inflows were recorded in Asia (+70t), and North America (+44t). Overall, since the return of ETFs to gold purchasing in May 2024, global funds have accumulated 481t net (~11% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) as well as geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2025, given ongoing inflows into global ETFs and central banks, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 115t of gold net in April, after the +92t in March, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the Inflows were recorded in Asia (+70t), and North America (+44t). Overall, since the return of ETFs to gold purchasing in May 2024, global funds have accumulated 481t net (~11% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) as well as geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2025, given ongoing inflows into global ETFs and central banks, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 3)
🏆Global physical gold demand fell 13% YoY to 1,030t in 1Q25, vs. the revised +7% YoY in 4Q24, according to World Gold Council data. Specifically, central bank purchases declined 21% YoY in 1Q25 (meanwhile, official central bank purchases, which represent ~⅓ of the demand from real government institutions, per WGC estimates, rose 14% YoY in 1Q25); gold jewellery demand was also down 21% YoY
Meanwhile, total global gold demand was up 17% YoY in 1Q25, amid robust ETF inflows. At the same time, world mined gold output was unchanged YoY in 1Q25
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏆Global physical gold demand fell 13% YoY to 1,030t in 1Q25, vs. the revised +7% YoY in 4Q24, according to World Gold Council data. Specifically, central bank purchases declined 21% YoY in 1Q25 (meanwhile, official central bank purchases, which represent ~⅓ of the demand from real government institutions, per WGC estimates, rose 14% YoY in 1Q25); gold jewellery demand was also down 21% YoY
Meanwhile, total global gold demand was up 17% YoY in 1Q25, amid robust ETF inflows. At the same time, world mined gold output was unchanged YoY in 1Q25
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in late-April was reported at 2.20mnt, down 1.2% vs. the previous ten days, and +0.1% YoY. Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 30 April), the output rose 2.1% YoY, per CISA data. Local steel inventories declined 8.5% over the period (-3.7% YoY)
We reiterate that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates); China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in late-April was reported at 2.20mnt, down 1.2% vs. the previous ten days, and +0.1% YoY. Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 30 April), the output rose 2.1% YoY, per CISA data. Local steel inventories declined 8.5% over the period (-3.7% YoY)
We reiterate that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates); China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇨🇳Total car sales in China grew 10% YoY in April (vs. +8% YoY in March)
📌China’s new ICE car sales declined 10% YoY in April, vs. the -7% YoY in March. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) were down only 4% YoY, as solid hybrid registrations were limiting the slowdown in pure ICE sales in recent months. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China surged 44% YoY in April, being broadly in-line with the +40% YoY in March. Specifically, BEV sales (67% of total EV registrations) gained 58% YoY, while PHEVs added 22% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇨🇳Total car sales in China grew 10% YoY in April (vs. +8% YoY in March)
📌China’s new ICE car sales declined 10% YoY in April, vs. the -7% YoY in March. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) were down only 4% YoY, as solid hybrid registrations were limiting the slowdown in pure ICE sales in recent months. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China surged 44% YoY in April, being broadly in-line with the +40% YoY in March. Specifically, BEV sales (67% of total EV registrations) gained 58% YoY, while PHEVs added 22% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘US light vehicle sales grew 10% YoY in April, vs. the 9% YoY gain in March. The figure has exceeded the pre-Covid 2019 level (+8% vs. April 2019). Meanwhile, according to Reuters, the new US administration is planning to cancel the USD 7,500 tax credit for EV purchases as part of tax reform legislation (which could even be replaced with a USD 1,000 new EV purchase tax). This move, if it materialised, would negatively affect local BEV sales (as was the case in Germany), which is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 22% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2023
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🚘US light vehicle sales grew 10% YoY in April, vs. the 9% YoY gain in March. The figure has exceeded the pre-Covid 2019 level (+8% vs. April 2019). Meanwhile, according to Reuters, the new US administration is planning to cancel the USD 7,500 tax credit for EV purchases as part of tax reform legislation (which could even be replaced with a USD 1,000 new EV purchase tax). This move, if it materialised, would negatively affect local BEV sales (as was the case in Germany), which is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 22% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2023
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were flat YoY in April, vs. the -5% YoY in March. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports inched down 1% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports jumped 58% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 8% of total trading
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade), if materialised, might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were flat YoY in April, vs. the -5% YoY in March. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports inched down 1% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports jumped 58% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 8% of total trading
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade), if materialised, might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany slid 2% YoY in April, vs. the +3% YoY seen in March and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-22% vs. April 2019). In Germany, car sales were 22% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in France and Italy were 26% and 20% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 25% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were -17% vs. the 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched down YoY last month, and remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany slid 2% YoY in April, vs. the +3% YoY seen in March and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-22% vs. April 2019). In Germany, car sales were 22% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in France and Italy were 26% and 20% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 25% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were -17% vs. the 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched down YoY last month, and remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏦 The PBoC purchased 2t of gold in April, vs. the +3t in March, according to official data. In our view, the PBoC reports only visible gold inflows, excluding significant volumes purchased through non-public organisations and monetary gold. Specifically, the official global central banks’ purchases in 2024 reflected only 35% (34% in 1Q25) of real demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will likely remain elevated in the near future, given the steady gold inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏦 The PBoC purchased 2t of gold in April, vs. the +3t in March, according to official data. In our view, the PBoC reports only visible gold inflows, excluding significant volumes purchased through non-public organisations and monetary gold. Specifically, the official global central banks’ purchases in 2024 reflected only 35% (34% in 1Q25) of real demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will likely remain elevated in the near future, given the steady gold inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-May was reported at 2.20mnt, in line with the previous ten days, and up 0.6% YoY. Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 10 May), the output rose 2.0% YoY, per CISA data. Local steel inventories rose 5.0% over the period (-1.4% YoY)
We remind our readers that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates); China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-May was reported at 2.20mnt, in line with the previous ten days, and up 0.6% YoY. Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 10 May), the output rose 2.0% YoY, per CISA data. Local steel inventories rose 5.0% over the period (-1.4% YoY)
We remind our readers that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates); China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for April (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output was flat YoY in April vs. the +5% YoY in March, according to the NBS data. Although Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates), it was still up <1% YoY in 4mo25, per official statistics
🏢China's property sales slid 3% YoY in April, after the -2% YoY in March, and were down 55% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 22% YoY in April (-73% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans slid 13% YoY in April (-60% vs. 2021), while property completions declined 28% YoY
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output was flat YoY in April vs. the +5% YoY in March, according to the NBS data. Although Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates), it was still up <1% YoY in 4mo25, per official statistics
🏢China's property sales slid 3% YoY in April, after the -2% YoY in March, and were down 55% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 22% YoY in April (-73% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans slid 13% YoY in April (-60% vs. 2021), while property completions declined 28% YoY
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏗China’s excavator sales increased 18% YoY in April (domestic + export) - in line with March dynamics, according to CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales rose 16% YoY (but were still 69% below the same period in 2021): upbeat Chinese excavator sales might indicate improving sentiment around local construction activity in 2025
In our view, the additional Chinese stimulus expected in 2025 (in addition to the recently announced package) could spur recovery in the Chinese real estate sector, which started to gradually bottom out in 2H24. Furthermore, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Overall, these measures might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2025, we believe
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s excavator sales increased 18% YoY in April (domestic + export) - in line with March dynamics, according to CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales rose 16% YoY (but were still 69% below the same period in 2021): upbeat Chinese excavator sales might indicate improving sentiment around local construction activity in 2025
In our view, the additional Chinese stimulus expected in 2025 (in addition to the recently announced package) could spur recovery in the Chinese real estate sector, which started to gradually bottom out in 2H24. Furthermore, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Overall, these measures might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2025, we believe
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output dropped 10% YoY in March, vs. the -24% YoY in February, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production also fell 11% YoY, after the 8% YoY drop in February. According to local media, heavy rains disrupted domestic mining output in 1Q25, while high cost of electricity (Eskom lifted its tariffs by a further 13% in early 2025) also remains a serious constraint for South African miners
In our view, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging the production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which might be even replaced with a new USD 1,000 EV purchase tax) could bolster the PGM prices recovery in 2025
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output dropped 10% YoY in March, vs. the -24% YoY in February, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production also fell 11% YoY, after the 8% YoY drop in February. According to local media, heavy rains disrupted domestic mining output in 1Q25, while high cost of electricity (Eskom lifted its tariffs by a further 13% in early 2025) also remains a serious constraint for South African miners
In our view, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging the production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which might be even replaced with a new USD 1,000 EV purchase tax) could bolster the PGM prices recovery in 2025
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales grew 12% YoY in 1Q25, vs. the +14% in 4Q24, according to a press-release from the retailer. Richemont highlights notable improvement in the Jewellery Maisons business unit in 4Q24-1Q25, where the slowdown in Asia Pacific sales is being offset by higher demand from the company's Japan and Americas regions
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade), if materialised, might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales grew 12% YoY in 1Q25, vs. the +14% in 4Q24, according to a press-release from the retailer. Richemont highlights notable improvement in the Jewellery Maisons business unit in 4Q24-1Q25, where the slowdown in Asia Pacific sales is being offset by higher demand from the company's Japan and Americas regions
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade), if materialised, might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
👍1
Morning Bites (part 1)
📌Johnson Matthey expects balanced Pd and deep-deficit Pt markets in 2025
🚗 According to JM, global Pd-Pt demand from the automotive sector is set to decline 5% YoY in 2025, taking into account trade-war concerns and the fact gasoline cars are losing share to BEVs, especially in China. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector accounted for 18% and 17% of global Pt and Pd demand, respectively, last year
📊 In 2025 JM sees a ~10% deficit on the global Pt market, as it less exposed to the downturn in automotive demand due to diversified demand structure; Pd is expected to shift into a balanced state after 5% deficit in 2024 as it more dependent on autocatalyst demand (~85% of Pd consumption)
⛏On the supply side, according to JM, primary Pt and Pd supply are expected to fall 3-4% YoY in 2025, mainly driven by workforce 'rationalisation programmes' in South Africa, as well as planned production cuts in North America, amid continuously weak prices
#PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
📌Johnson Matthey expects balanced Pd and deep-deficit Pt markets in 2025
🚗 According to JM, global Pd-Pt demand from the automotive sector is set to decline 5% YoY in 2025, taking into account trade-war concerns and the fact gasoline cars are losing share to BEVs, especially in China. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector accounted for 18% and 17% of global Pt and Pd demand, respectively, last year
📊 In 2025 JM sees a ~10% deficit on the global Pt market, as it less exposed to the downturn in automotive demand due to diversified demand structure; Pd is expected to shift into a balanced state after 5% deficit in 2024 as it more dependent on autocatalyst demand (~85% of Pd consumption)
⛏On the supply side, according to JM, primary Pt and Pd supply are expected to fall 3-4% YoY in 2025, mainly driven by workforce 'rationalisation programmes' in South Africa, as well as planned production cuts in North America, amid continuously weak prices
#PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM