Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in mid-April was reported at 2.23mnt, up 1.5% vs. the previous ten days, and 5.2% higher YoY. Local steel inventories also increased 4.2% over the period (down 7.8% YoY)
Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 20 April), production dynamics remain upbeat (+2.3% YoY, per CISA's data), despite Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates)
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in mid-April was reported at 2.23mnt, up 1.5% vs. the previous ten days, and 5.2% higher YoY. Local steel inventories also increased 4.2% over the period (down 7.8% YoY)
Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 20 April), production dynamics remain upbeat (+2.3% YoY, per CISA's data), despite Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates)
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇮🇳 India plans to almost triple coking coal imports by 2030, amid limited supply and the ongoing ramp-up of local steel capacities, Reuters reports, citing the country’s Steel Secretary Sandeep Poundrik. Specifically, India's annual coking coal imports are expected to hit 160mnt (vs. current 58mnt) to match the country's ambitious steel production target of 300mnt by 2030 (vs. 150mnt in 2024)
We reiterate our view that India remains a key long-term driver for coking coal demand, as its potential ~100mnt increase in imports accounts for 1⁄3 of the global seaborne market in 2024. To recap, Indian steel output grew 6% YoY in 2024, and it’s gaining momentum having grown 7% YoY in 1Q25
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Coal
🇮🇳 India plans to almost triple coking coal imports by 2030, amid limited supply and the ongoing ramp-up of local steel capacities, Reuters reports, citing the country’s Steel Secretary Sandeep Poundrik. Specifically, India's annual coking coal imports are expected to hit 160mnt (vs. current 58mnt) to match the country's ambitious steel production target of 300mnt by 2030 (vs. 150mnt in 2024)
We reiterate our view that India remains a key long-term driver for coking coal demand, as its potential ~100mnt increase in imports accounts for 1⁄3 of the global seaborne market in 2024. To recap, Indian steel output grew 6% YoY in 2024, and it’s gaining momentum having grown 7% YoY in 1Q25
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Coal
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 2.4% YoY in March, vs. the revised -0.4% YoY seen in February, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) was flat YoY last month, while ex. China output jumped 3.4% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which we expect to reach USD 2,700-2,900/t by late 2025 - early 2026
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 43.4mnt in 3mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 2.4% YoY in March, vs. the revised -0.4% YoY seen in February, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) was flat YoY last month, while ex. China output jumped 3.4% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which we expect to reach USD 2,700-2,900/t by late 2025 - early 2026
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 43.4mnt in 3mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
Week ahead data releases in M&M
The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several major M&M names are still due to release their 1Q25 financials. Of those companies reporting this week, we are generally more bullish than the consensus on gold miners’ EBITDA (e.g., Barrick, Coeur, I am gold)
This week is also due to bring the Chinese import/export data for April
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several major M&M names are still due to release their 1Q25 financials. Of those companies reporting this week, we are generally more bullish than the consensus on gold miners’ EBITDA (e.g., Barrick, Coeur, I am gold)
This week is also due to bring the Chinese import/export data for April
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇪🇺 Total car sales in the EU were broadly flat YoY in 1Q25, as solid demand for BEVs and HEVs offset the weakening sales of petrol/diesel cars
🚗💨Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in the EU declined 6% YoY in 1Q25, vs. the +1% YoY in 4Q24. Specifically, petrol car sales were down 21% YoY in 1Q25 (vs. -10% YoY in 4Q24), while diesel car registrations dropped 26% YoY (vs. -14% YoY in 4Q24). Diesel cars accounted for 23% of pure-ICE car sales in 1Q25 (broadly flat QoQ and YoY). HEV sales jumped 20% YoY (vs. +21% YoY in 4Q24), as buyers see them as an affordable compromise between pure-ICE and EVs
🚘EU+UK EV sales grew 20% YoY in 1Q25, after the flat YoY dynamics in 4Q24 (mainly due to low base effect). In particular, BEV sales jumped 28% YoY (+2% YoY in 4Q24), while PHEV sales were up 6% YoY (vs. -4% YoY in 4Q24). The share of BEVs in total EV sales remained at 68% in 1Q25 — the same as in 4Q24
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇪🇺 Total car sales in the EU were broadly flat YoY in 1Q25, as solid demand for BEVs and HEVs offset the weakening sales of petrol/diesel cars
🚗💨Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in the EU declined 6% YoY in 1Q25, vs. the +1% YoY in 4Q24. Specifically, petrol car sales were down 21% YoY in 1Q25 (vs. -10% YoY in 4Q24), while diesel car registrations dropped 26% YoY (vs. -14% YoY in 4Q24). Diesel cars accounted for 23% of pure-ICE car sales in 1Q25 (broadly flat QoQ and YoY). HEV sales jumped 20% YoY (vs. +21% YoY in 4Q24), as buyers see them as an affordable compromise between pure-ICE and EVs
🚘EU+UK EV sales grew 20% YoY in 1Q25, after the flat YoY dynamics in 4Q24 (mainly due to low base effect). In particular, BEV sales jumped 28% YoY (+2% YoY in 4Q24), while PHEV sales were up 6% YoY (vs. -4% YoY in 4Q24). The share of BEVs in total EV sales remained at 68% in 1Q25 — the same as in 4Q24
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in April. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 49.0 (vs. 48.6 in March), while the US ISM manufacturing PMI slid to 48.7
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China dropped to 49.0 (vs. 50.5 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.4
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 58.2 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, EU and US PMI indices remain below 50.0, underlining the weakness of local manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, we reiterate our view that additional Chinese stimulus expected in 2025 (in addition to the recently announced package) might bolster local demand for industrial metals this year (e.g. aluminum and copper)
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in April. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 49.0 (vs. 48.6 in March), while the US ISM manufacturing PMI slid to 48.7
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China dropped to 49.0 (vs. 50.5 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.4
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 58.2 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, EU and US PMI indices remain below 50.0, underlining the weakness of local manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, we reiterate our view that additional Chinese stimulus expected in 2025 (in addition to the recently announced package) might bolster local demand for industrial metals this year (e.g. aluminum and copper)
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🏦 Global central banks purchased 21t of gold net in March, vs. the +24t in February, marking the 22nd consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports. The major contributors were Poland (+16t) and Kazakhstan (+11t). On the sellers' side were Uzbekistan and Singapore which sold 11t and 5t, respectively
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz); however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as trade war uncertainties
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏦 Global central banks purchased 21t of gold net in March, vs. the +24t in February, marking the 22nd consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports. The major contributors were Poland (+16t) and Kazakhstan (+11t). On the sellers' side were Uzbekistan and Singapore which sold 11t and 5t, respectively
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz); however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as trade war uncertainties
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites
💎US jewellery sales were flat YoY in March, in-line with February's dynamics, IDEX reports, citing the local Department of Commerce data. According to Rapaport, the US retail market was stable in March, but uncertainty ahead of the announcement of tariffs led some wholesalers to curtail purchases
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales were down 3% YoY in March, vs. the 13% YoY decline in February, per government data. According to Rapaport, over the last few months, visitors have been turning away from luxury purchases, while HK residents have been spending money while traveling abroad rather than domestically
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025 and the ongoing escalation in the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade) affecting consumer confidence
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎US jewellery sales were flat YoY in March, in-line with February's dynamics, IDEX reports, citing the local Department of Commerce data. According to Rapaport, the US retail market was stable in March, but uncertainty ahead of the announcement of tariffs led some wholesalers to curtail purchases
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales were down 3% YoY in March, vs. the 13% YoY decline in February, per government data. According to Rapaport, over the last few months, visitors have been turning away from luxury purchases, while HK residents have been spending money while traveling abroad rather than domestically
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025 and the ongoing escalation in the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade) affecting consumer confidence
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
🗞On Friday, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for April (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports jumped 16% YoY in April, after the 7% YoY gain in March, amid persistently soft domestic demand. To recap, the Chinese authorities are considering cutting local steel output in 2025, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year. On our numbers a 2-3% output cut could normalise abnormal Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024)
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 16% YoY in April, accelerating from the -6% YoY in March. According to Reuters, the decrease was both due to a high base effect from 2024 (when a series of mine accidents in Shanxi coal hub drove up imports) and record output coupled with soft domestic demand that led to elevated inventories
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🔗China’s net finished steel exports jumped 16% YoY in April, after the 7% YoY gain in March, amid persistently soft domestic demand. To recap, the Chinese authorities are considering cutting local steel output in 2025, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year. On our numbers a 2-3% output cut could normalise abnormal Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024)
🪨China’s coal imports dropped 16% YoY in April, accelerating from the -6% YoY in March. According to Reuters, the decrease was both due to a high base effect from 2024 (when a series of mine accidents in Shanxi coal hub drove up imports) and record output coupled with soft domestic demand that led to elevated inventories
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 115t of gold net in April, after the +92t in March, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the Inflows were recorded in Asia (+70t), and North America (+44t). Overall, since the return of ETFs to gold purchasing in May 2024, global funds have accumulated 481t net (~11% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) as well as geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2025, given ongoing inflows into global ETFs and central banks, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 115t of gold net in April, after the +92t in March, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the Inflows were recorded in Asia (+70t), and North America (+44t). Overall, since the return of ETFs to gold purchasing in May 2024, global funds have accumulated 481t net (~11% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) as well as geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2025, given ongoing inflows into global ETFs and central banks, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 3)
🏆Global physical gold demand fell 13% YoY to 1,030t in 1Q25, vs. the revised +7% YoY in 4Q24, according to World Gold Council data. Specifically, central bank purchases declined 21% YoY in 1Q25 (meanwhile, official central bank purchases, which represent ~⅓ of the demand from real government institutions, per WGC estimates, rose 14% YoY in 1Q25); gold jewellery demand was also down 21% YoY
Meanwhile, total global gold demand was up 17% YoY in 1Q25, amid robust ETF inflows. At the same time, world mined gold output was unchanged YoY in 1Q25
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏆Global physical gold demand fell 13% YoY to 1,030t in 1Q25, vs. the revised +7% YoY in 4Q24, according to World Gold Council data. Specifically, central bank purchases declined 21% YoY in 1Q25 (meanwhile, official central bank purchases, which represent ~⅓ of the demand from real government institutions, per WGC estimates, rose 14% YoY in 1Q25); gold jewellery demand was also down 21% YoY
Meanwhile, total global gold demand was up 17% YoY in 1Q25, amid robust ETF inflows. At the same time, world mined gold output was unchanged YoY in 1Q25
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in late-April was reported at 2.20mnt, down 1.2% vs. the previous ten days, and +0.1% YoY. Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 30 April), the output rose 2.1% YoY, per CISA data. Local steel inventories declined 8.5% over the period (-3.7% YoY)
We reiterate that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates); China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in late-April was reported at 2.20mnt, down 1.2% vs. the previous ten days, and +0.1% YoY. Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 30 April), the output rose 2.1% YoY, per CISA data. Local steel inventories declined 8.5% over the period (-3.7% YoY)
We reiterate that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates); China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇨🇳Total car sales in China grew 10% YoY in April (vs. +8% YoY in March)
📌China’s new ICE car sales declined 10% YoY in April, vs. the -7% YoY in March. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) were down only 4% YoY, as solid hybrid registrations were limiting the slowdown in pure ICE sales in recent months. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China surged 44% YoY in April, being broadly in-line with the +40% YoY in March. Specifically, BEV sales (67% of total EV registrations) gained 58% YoY, while PHEVs added 22% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇨🇳Total car sales in China grew 10% YoY in April (vs. +8% YoY in March)
📌China’s new ICE car sales declined 10% YoY in April, vs. the -7% YoY in March. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) were down only 4% YoY, as solid hybrid registrations were limiting the slowdown in pure ICE sales in recent months. In our view, this is a favorable factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China surged 44% YoY in April, being broadly in-line with the +40% YoY in March. Specifically, BEV sales (67% of total EV registrations) gained 58% YoY, while PHEVs added 22% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘US light vehicle sales grew 10% YoY in April, vs. the 9% YoY gain in March. The figure has exceeded the pre-Covid 2019 level (+8% vs. April 2019). Meanwhile, according to Reuters, the new US administration is planning to cancel the USD 7,500 tax credit for EV purchases as part of tax reform legislation (which could even be replaced with a USD 1,000 new EV purchase tax). This move, if it materialised, would negatively affect local BEV sales (as was the case in Germany), which is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 22% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2023
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🚘US light vehicle sales grew 10% YoY in April, vs. the 9% YoY gain in March. The figure has exceeded the pre-Covid 2019 level (+8% vs. April 2019). Meanwhile, according to Reuters, the new US administration is planning to cancel the USD 7,500 tax credit for EV purchases as part of tax reform legislation (which could even be replaced with a USD 1,000 new EV purchase tax). This move, if it materialised, would negatively affect local BEV sales (as was the case in Germany), which is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 22% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2023
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were flat YoY in April, vs. the -5% YoY in March. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports inched down 1% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports jumped 58% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 8% of total trading
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade), if materialised, might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were flat YoY in April, vs. the -5% YoY in March. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports inched down 1% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports jumped 58% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 8% of total trading
We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade), if materialised, might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany slid 2% YoY in April, vs. the +3% YoY seen in March and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-22% vs. April 2019). In Germany, car sales were 22% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in France and Italy were 26% and 20% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 25% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were -17% vs. the 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched down YoY last month, and remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany slid 2% YoY in April, vs. the +3% YoY seen in March and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-22% vs. April 2019). In Germany, car sales were 22% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in France and Italy were 26% and 20% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 25% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were -17% vs. the 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched down YoY last month, and remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM