Morning Bites
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in March. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 48.6 (vs. 47.6 in February) while the US ISM manufacturing PMI slid to 49.0
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.5 (vs. 50.2 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI stood at 51.2
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 57.6 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, EU and US PMI indices were below 50.0, underlining the weakness of local manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, we reiterate our view that China’s fiscal stimulus might bolster local demand for industrial metals this year (e.g. aluminum and copper)
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in March. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 48.6 (vs. 47.6 in February) while the US ISM manufacturing PMI slid to 49.0
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.5 (vs. 50.2 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI stood at 51.2
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 57.6 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, EU and US PMI indices were below 50.0, underlining the weakness of local manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, we reiterate our view that China’s fiscal stimulus might bolster local demand for industrial metals this year (e.g. aluminum and copper)
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
💎US jewellery sales were flat YoY in February, vs. the revised -1% YoY in January, IDEX reports, citing the local Department of Commerce data. According to Rapaport, the market was steady in February with retailers seeing stable but not record-breaking sales
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales dropped another 13% YoY in February, after the 18% YoY decline in January, per government data. According to Rapaport, over the last few months, visitors have been turning away from luxury purchases, while HK residents have been spending money while traveling abroad rather than domestically
Overall, we maintain our cautiously upbeat view on the global diamond market, but it might take longer than we had originally anticipated to recover, given the still high midstream inventories and the slowdown in the US downstream market in early-2025 (~53% of the world gem-set jewellery trade)
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎US jewellery sales were flat YoY in February, vs. the revised -1% YoY in January, IDEX reports, citing the local Department of Commerce data. According to Rapaport, the market was steady in February with retailers seeing stable but not record-breaking sales
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales dropped another 13% YoY in February, after the 18% YoY decline in January, per government data. According to Rapaport, over the last few months, visitors have been turning away from luxury purchases, while HK residents have been spending money while traveling abroad rather than domestically
Overall, we maintain our cautiously upbeat view on the global diamond market, but it might take longer than we had originally anticipated to recover, given the still high midstream inventories and the slowdown in the US downstream market in early-2025 (~53% of the world gem-set jewellery trade)
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
🏦 Global central banks purchased 24t of gold net in February, vs. the 19t buy in January, marking the 21th consecutive month of reserves accumulation, the World Gold Council reports. The major contributors were Poland (+29t) and China (+5t). On the sellers' side were Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan which sold 12t and 8t, respectively
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz); however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as trade war uncertainties
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏦 Global central banks purchased 24t of gold net in February, vs. the 19t buy in January, marking the 21th consecutive month of reserves accumulation, the World Gold Council reports. The major contributors were Poland (+29t) and China (+5t). On the sellers' side were Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan which sold 12t and 8t, respectively
At spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz); however, upside risks prevail for the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as trade war uncertainties
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites
🚘US light vehicle sales grew 9% YoY in March, vs. the 2% YoY gain in February. The figure has almost reached the pre-Covid 2019 level (-3% vs. March 2019). Meanwhile, according to Reuters, the new US administration is planning to cancel the USD 7,500 tax credit for EV purchases as part of tax reform legislation (which could even be replaced with a USD 1,000 new EV purchase tax). This move, if it materialised, would negatively affect local BEV sales (as was the case in Germany), which is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 22% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2023
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🚘US light vehicle sales grew 9% YoY in March, vs. the 2% YoY gain in February. The figure has almost reached the pre-Covid 2019 level (-3% vs. March 2019). Meanwhile, according to Reuters, the new US administration is planning to cancel the USD 7,500 tax credit for EV purchases as part of tax reform legislation (which could even be replaced with a USD 1,000 new EV purchase tax). This move, if it materialised, would negatively affect local BEV sales (as was the case in Germany), which is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 22% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2023
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in late-March was reported at 2.13mnt, down 1.9% vs. the previous ten days, and +0.2% YoY. Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 31 March), the output rose 0.6% YoY, per CISA data. Local steel inventories declined 9.9% over the period (-17.4% YoY)
In our view, China’s fiscal stimulus for 2025 (incl. 5% GDP growth target, an increase in official budget deficit from 3% to 4%, etc), might bolster the recovery in the local property sector, which started to gradually bottom out in 2H24. Furthermore, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates). Overall, these measures might cool down surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2025, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in late-March was reported at 2.13mnt, down 1.9% vs. the previous ten days, and +0.2% YoY. Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 31 March), the output rose 0.6% YoY, per CISA data. Local steel inventories declined 9.9% over the period (-17.4% YoY)
In our view, China’s fiscal stimulus for 2025 (incl. 5% GDP growth target, an increase in official budget deficit from 3% to 4%, etc), might bolster the recovery in the local property sector, which started to gradually bottom out in 2H24. Furthermore, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market participants’ estimates). Overall, these measures might cool down surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2025, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 92t of gold net in March, after the +100t in February, according to World Gold Council data. Inflows were again recorded in every region, with the strongest accumulation in North America (+67t). Overall, since the return of ETFs to gold purchasing in May 2024, global funds have accumulated 366t net (~9% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) as well as geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2025, given ongoing inflows into global ETFs and central banks, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 92t of gold net in March, after the +100t in February, according to World Gold Council data. Inflows were again recorded in every region, with the strongest accumulation in North America (+67t). Overall, since the return of ETFs to gold purchasing in May 2024, global funds have accumulated 366t net (~9% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) as well as geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2025, given ongoing inflows into global ETFs and central banks, in addition to the global trade related concerns
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🏗China’s excavator sales increased 18% YoY in March (domestic + export) from a low base, after the 53% YoY gain in February, according to CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales jumped 29% YoY (but were still 73% lower than for the same period in 2021). Overall, upbeat Chinese excavator sales dynamics might indicate improving sentiment around local construction activity in 2025
In our view, China’s new fiscal stimulus for 2025, (incl. the 5% GDP growth target, an increase in official budget deficit from 3% to 4%, etc), could spur recovery in the Chinese real estate sector, which started to gradually bottom out in 2H24. Furthermore, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Overall, these measures might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2025, we believe
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s excavator sales increased 18% YoY in March (domestic + export) from a low base, after the 53% YoY gain in February, according to CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales jumped 29% YoY (but were still 73% lower than for the same period in 2021). Overall, upbeat Chinese excavator sales dynamics might indicate improving sentiment around local construction activity in 2025
In our view, China’s new fiscal stimulus for 2025, (incl. the 5% GDP growth target, an increase in official budget deficit from 3% to 4%, etc), could spur recovery in the Chinese real estate sector, which started to gradually bottom out in 2H24. Furthermore, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Overall, these measures might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2025, we believe
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🪨US President Donald Trump has signed four executive orders to boost the US coal industry, Reuters reports. The initiative outlined steps to protect coal-fired power plants (which now account for <20% of US power generation, vs. 50% in 2000) and expedite leases for local coal mining to meet rising power demand (from AI, data centers, etc)
Although Trump's order might bolster US coal supply, we do not expect a material impact on the global market, especially given the concerns of market participants about potential changes in future regulations and the availability of cheaper energy sources. Furthermore, the high cost of logistics make potential export sales unprofitable
#coal
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Coal
🪨US President Donald Trump has signed four executive orders to boost the US coal industry, Reuters reports. The initiative outlined steps to protect coal-fired power plants (which now account for <20% of US power generation, vs. 50% in 2000) and expedite leases for local coal mining to meet rising power demand (from AI, data centers, etc)
Although Trump's order might bolster US coal supply, we do not expect a material impact on the global market, especially given the concerns of market participants about potential changes in future regulations and the availability of cheaper energy sources. Furthermore, the high cost of logistics make potential export sales unprofitable
#coal
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Coal
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 3% YoY in March, vs. the -2% YoY seen in February and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-22% vs. March 2019). In Germany, car sales were 27% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in France and Italy were 32% and 11% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 22% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were -5% vs. the 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched up YoY last month, and remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 3% YoY in March, vs. the -2% YoY seen in February and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-22% vs. March 2019). In Germany, car sales were 27% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in France and Italy were 32% and 11% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 22% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were -5% vs. the 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched up YoY last month, and remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season begins, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Alcoa is set to release its 1Q25 earnings. On the EBITDA side, we are broadly in line with the consensus
We also expect to see monthly South African mining data, as well as Chinese industrial production statistics this week
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
As the reporting season begins, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Alcoa is set to release its 1Q25 earnings. On the EBITDA side, we are broadly in line with the consensus
We also expect to see monthly South African mining data, as well as Chinese industrial production statistics this week
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for March (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 7% YoY in March, after the 8% gain YoY in January-February, as domestic steel demand is not recovering as much as expected, according to Reuters. To recap, the Chinese authorities are considering cutting local steel output in 2025, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year; China's net steel exports (~10% of production in 2024) grew 25% last year, hence a 2.5% output cut could normalize export volumes
🪨China’s coal imports declined 6% YoY in March, vs. the +2% YoY in January-February. According to Reuters, the decline is due to high inventories at ports and weak domestic demand that has also pushed spot prices down to four-year lows
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 7% YoY in March, after the 8% gain YoY in January-February, as domestic steel demand is not recovering as much as expected, according to Reuters. To recap, the Chinese authorities are considering cutting local steel output in 2025, in an attempt to restore market balance and profitability at mills. Although the measure’s size was not specified, market participants expect China’s steel supply to decline 2-5% YoY this year; China's net steel exports (~10% of production in 2024) grew 25% last year, hence a 2.5% output cut could normalize export volumes
🪨China’s coal imports declined 6% YoY in March, vs. the +2% YoY in January-February. According to Reuters, the decline is due to high inventories at ports and weak domestic demand that has also pushed spot prices down to four-year lows
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇨🇳Total car sales in China grew 8% YoY in March (vs. +34% YoY in February)
📌China’s new ICE car sales fell 7% YoY in March, vs. the +12% YoY in February. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) were flat YoY, as hybrid registrations offset the slowdown in ICE sales in recent months. In our view, this is a supportive factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China surged 40% YoY in March, vs. +87% YoY in February. Specifically, BEV sales (65% of total EV registrations) gained 42% YoY, while PHEVs also added 36% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇨🇳Total car sales in China grew 8% YoY in March (vs. +34% YoY in February)
📌China’s new ICE car sales fell 7% YoY in March, vs. the +12% YoY in February. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) were flat YoY, as hybrid registrations offset the slowdown in ICE sales in recent months. In our view, this is a supportive factor for medium-term PGM market fundamentals. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China surged 40% YoY in March, vs. +87% YoY in February. Specifically, BEV sales (65% of total EV registrations) gained 42% YoY, while PHEVs also added 36% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were down 5% YoY in March, decelerating from the -49% YoY in February. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 6% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports plunged 33% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 4% of total trading
Although GJEPC had noted a looming recovery in the diamond industry, market participants emphasised that midstream inventories were still high in early-2025. Meanwhile, Indian diamond exporters now expect the new escalation in the US-China trade war to affect buyer confidence, at least in the short term. Hence, the potential diamond market recovery might take longer than we had initially anticipated
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports were down 5% YoY in March, decelerating from the -49% YoY in February. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 6% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports plunged 33% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 4% of total trading
Although GJEPC had noted a looming recovery in the diamond industry, market participants emphasised that midstream inventories were still high in early-2025. Meanwhile, Indian diamond exporters now expect the new escalation in the US-China trade war to affect buyer confidence, at least in the short term. Hence, the potential diamond market recovery might take longer than we had initially anticipated
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for March (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output rose 5% YoY in March vs. the -2% YoY in January-February, according to the NBS data. Although Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates), it was still up 1% YoY in 1Q25
🏢China's property sales slid 2% YoY in March, after the -5% YoY in January-February, and were down 40% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 19% YoY in March (-67% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans were flat YoY in March (-50% vs. 2021), while property completions declined 12% YoY
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output rose 5% YoY in March vs. the -2% YoY in January-February, according to the NBS data. Although Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates), it was still up 1% YoY in 1Q25
🏢China's property sales slid 2% YoY in March, after the -5% YoY in January-February, and were down 40% vs. the 2021 levels. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 19% YoY in March (-67% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans were flat YoY in March (-50% vs. 2021), while property completions declined 12% YoY
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery stood flat YoY in 1Q25, decelerating from the +3% YoY in 4Q24, according to a press release from the retailer. The company’s Watches & Jewellery segment remained stable YoY thanks to Tiffany & Co. performing well, while the continued renovation of LVMH’s jewellery stores also provided a positive impulse to sales
Overall, we maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025 and the ongoing escalation in the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade) affecting consumer confidence
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery stood flat YoY in 1Q25, decelerating from the +3% YoY in 4Q24, according to a press release from the retailer. The company’s Watches & Jewellery segment remained stable YoY thanks to Tiffany & Co. performing well, while the continued renovation of LVMH’s jewellery stores also provided a positive impulse to sales
Overall, we maintain our view that it might take longer than we had originally anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given the still high midstream inventories in early-2025 and the ongoing escalation in the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world gem-set jewellery trade) affecting consumer confidence
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds