Morning Bites
🏦 The PBoC purchased 5t of gold in January, vs. +10t in December, according to official data. In our view, PBoC reports only visible gold inflows, excluding significant volumes purchased through non-public organisations and monetary gold, as the official statistics for 2024 reflect only 35% of total demand from government institutions (per WGC estimates)
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in the near future, given the steady gold inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏦 The PBoC purchased 5t of gold in January, vs. +10t in December, according to official data. In our view, PBoC reports only visible gold inflows, excluding significant volumes purchased through non-public organisations and monetary gold, as the official statistics for 2024 reflect only 35% of total demand from government institutions (per WGC estimates)
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in the near future, given the steady gold inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues, many M&M names are scheduled to report their 4Q24/2H24 earnings this week. On EBITDA side, our forecasts are generally in-line with the consensus on the top miners (e.g., Vale, BHP, Glencore, Newmont), while we are more upbeat on some smaller producers’ performance — especially, on junior gold miners (e.g., Equinox, Torex, I Am Gold)
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
As the reporting season continues, many M&M names are scheduled to report their 4Q24/2H24 earnings this week. On EBITDA side, our forecasts are generally in-line with the consensus on the top miners (e.g., Vale, BHP, Glencore, Newmont), while we are more upbeat on some smaller producers’ performance — especially, on junior gold miners (e.g., Equinox, Torex, I Am Gold)
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-February was reported at 2.13mnt, up 1.0% vs. the previous ten days, and +2.9% YoY. Local steel inventories also increased 5.6% over the period (+7.4% YoY)
We maintain our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the Chinese property sector, which is slowly picking up, but that more actions would be required in 2025 for a full-scale recovery in construction activity
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-February was reported at 2.13mnt, up 1.0% vs. the previous ten days, and +2.9% YoY. Local steel inventories also increased 5.6% over the period (+7.4% YoY)
We maintain our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the Chinese property sector, which is slowly picking up, but that more actions would be required in 2025 for a full-scale recovery in construction activity
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output slid 7% YoY in December, vs. the +4% YoY in November, according to official data. Meanwhile, local gold production dropped 8% YoY, albeit decelerating from the -12% YoY in November. In our view, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging the production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which might be even replaced with USD 1,000 new EV purchase tax) might bolster the PGM prices recovery in 2025, we believe
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output slid 7% YoY in December, vs. the +4% YoY in November, according to official data. Meanwhile, local gold production dropped 8% YoY, albeit decelerating from the -12% YoY in November. In our view, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging the production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which might be even replaced with USD 1,000 new EV purchase tax) might bolster the PGM prices recovery in 2025, we believe
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳Total car sales in China inched down 1% YoY in January (vs. +11% YoY in December)
📌China’s new ICE car sales declined 14% YoY in January, vs. the -3% YoY in December. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) were only down 7% YoY in January. In our view, this might be a one-off decline in ICE+PHEV sales, given their stable YoY growth seen in recent months. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 29% YoY in January, vs. +33% YoY in December. Specifically, BEV sales (61% of total EV registrations) grew 29% YoY, while PHEVs also added 30% YoY. Given the gradual shift to hybrids in China (40% of total EV sales in 2024 vs. 30% in 2023), this might add some support to PGM market fundamentals in the medium term, we believe
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇨🇳Total car sales in China inched down 1% YoY in January (vs. +11% YoY in December)
📌China’s new ICE car sales declined 14% YoY in January, vs. the -3% YoY in December. Meanwhile, the sales of local catalyst-containing cars (ICE+PHEV) were only down 7% YoY in January. In our view, this might be a one-off decline in ICE+PHEV sales, given their stable YoY growth seen in recent months. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 29% YoY in January, vs. +33% YoY in December. Specifically, BEV sales (61% of total EV registrations) grew 29% YoY, while PHEVs also added 30% YoY. Given the gradual shift to hybrids in China (40% of total EV sales in 2024 vs. 30% in 2023), this might add some support to PGM market fundamentals in the medium term, we believe
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports were down 37% YoY in January, in-line with the December dynamics. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports slid 4% YoY, vs. 12% YoY gain seen a month ago (from a low base). Synthetic rough diamond net imports also decreased 25% YoY. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 14%.
Although GJEPC has recently noted the looming recovery in the diamond industry, market participants confirm still high midstream inventories in early-2025. Hence, the potential diamond market recovery might take longer than we had initially anticipated.
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply.
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports were down 37% YoY in January, in-line with the December dynamics. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports slid 4% YoY, vs. 12% YoY gain seen a month ago (from a low base). Synthetic rough diamond net imports also decreased 25% YoY. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 14%.
Although GJEPC has recently noted the looming recovery in the diamond industry, market participants confirm still high midstream inventories in early-2025. Hence, the potential diamond market recovery might take longer than we had initially anticipated.
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply.
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany fell 3% YoY in January, following the flat YoY dynamics seen in December, and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-21% vs. January 2019). In Germany, car sales were 22% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in France and Italy were 26% and 19% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 13% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were -23% vs. the 2019 levels
Given that these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched down YoY last month, and remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany fell 3% YoY in January, following the flat YoY dynamics seen in December, and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-21% vs. January 2019). In Germany, car sales were 22% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in France and Italy were 26% and 19% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 13% below the 2019 level. Sales in Spain were -23% vs. the 2019 levels
Given that these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely inched down YoY last month, and remained well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output rose 4% YoY in December, after the -5% YoY in November, per MINEM data. Overall, in 2024, local production inched down 1% YoY, despite the Peruvian government’s initial plan to boost Cu supply 9% YoY. Meanwhile, Peru's top mining association SNMPE expects the country's 2025 copper output to hit around 2.80mnt, which is broadly in-line with the 2.74mnt in 2024
The joint production of Chile and Peru (~24% and ~12% of global Cu supply, respectively) grew 3% YoY in 2024
We maintain our positive view on copper, amid long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output rose 4% YoY in December, after the -5% YoY in November, per MINEM data. Overall, in 2024, local production inched down 1% YoY, despite the Peruvian government’s initial plan to boost Cu supply 9% YoY. Meanwhile, Peru's top mining association SNMPE expects the country's 2025 copper output to hit around 2.80mnt, which is broadly in-line with the 2.74mnt in 2024
The joint production of Chile and Peru (~24% and ~12% of global Cu supply, respectively) grew 3% YoY in 2024
We maintain our positive view on copper, amid long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites
🏗China’s excavator sales inched up 1% YoY in January (domestic + export), after the 16% YoY growth seen in December, according to CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales stood flat YoY (and were still -66% vs. January 2021 level). We remind readers that March, upcoming in the release schedule, is the most seasonally important month for Chinese excavator sales, which will largely determine perspectives of local property sector recovery in 2025, in our view
Meanwhile, China might announce additional fiscal stimulus in an annual parliamentary meeting (expected in early March 2025), which would bolster local demand for industrial metals this year (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper)
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s excavator sales inched up 1% YoY in January (domestic + export), after the 16% YoY growth seen in December, according to CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales stood flat YoY (and were still -66% vs. January 2021 level). We remind readers that March, upcoming in the release schedule, is the most seasonally important month for Chinese excavator sales, which will largely determine perspectives of local property sector recovery in 2025, in our view
Meanwhile, China might announce additional fiscal stimulus in an annual parliamentary meeting (expected in early March 2025), which would bolster local demand for industrial metals this year (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper)
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues, several M&M names are set to publish their 4Q24/2H24 earnings this week. Our estimate for Implats' EBITDA is slightly more conservative than the consensus, while our view that Cleveland Cliffs’ results will be weak is broadly in line
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
As the reporting season continues, several M&M names are set to publish their 4Q24/2H24 earnings this week. Our estimate for Implats' EBITDA is slightly more conservative than the consensus, while our view that Cleveland Cliffs’ results will be weak is broadly in line
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites
🏦 China’s aggregate financing rose 9% YoY in January to CNY 7.06tn, after the 38% YoY growth in December, and surpassed the consensus estimates by 10%. Traditional bank loans were also up in January, rising 4% YoY. According to Trading Economics, January saw an increase in credit demand boosted by Beijing’s recent monetary stimulus
Although China's new economic support measures have started to materialise gradually, we reiterate our view that more actions are still required to trigger a full-scale recovery in construction activity in 2025. To recap, Beijing might announce the first details of its new consumption-related fiscal stimulus in March
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🏦 China’s aggregate financing rose 9% YoY in January to CNY 7.06tn, after the 38% YoY growth in December, and surpassed the consensus estimates by 10%. Traditional bank loans were also up in January, rising 4% YoY. According to Trading Economics, January saw an increase in credit demand boosted by Beijing’s recent monetary stimulus
Although China's new economic support measures have started to materialise gradually, we reiterate our view that more actions are still required to trigger a full-scale recovery in construction activity in 2025. To recap, Beijing might announce the first details of its new consumption-related fiscal stimulus in March
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production jumped 5.0% YoY in December, vs. the revised +3.2% YoY in November, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Overall, in 2024, global output was up 2.4% YoY, mainly driven by higher DRC and Chilean supply (+14% and +5% YoY, respectively), while the ICSG also notes solid global refined Cu consumption growth (+2.9% YoY in 2024), mainly driven by China (+3.5% YoY)
We maintain our positive view on copper, amid long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🥉Global mined copper production jumped 5.0% YoY in December, vs. the revised +3.2% YoY in November, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Overall, in 2024, global output was up 2.4% YoY, mainly driven by higher DRC and Chilean supply (+14% and +5% YoY, respectively), while the ICSG also notes solid global refined Cu consumption growth (+2.9% YoY in 2024), mainly driven by China (+3.5% YoY)
We maintain our positive view on copper, amid long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗Global crude steel output fell 4% YoY to 151mnt in January, after the 6% YoY growth seen in December, according to World Steel Association (WSA) data. China’s production (54% of global crude steel supply) fell 6% YoY (vs. +12% YoY in December), while ex-China steel output also slipped 3% YoY. The WSA numbers show that Russian output inched down 1% YoY, while the US production rose 1% YoY last month, and EU supply fell 3% YoY. Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) grew 7% YoY in January
We reiterate our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the local property sector in 2025, but that more actions are required for a full-scale recovery in construction activity. To recap, Beijing might announce the first details of its new consumption-related fiscal stimulus in March
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗Global crude steel output fell 4% YoY to 151mnt in January, after the 6% YoY growth seen in December, according to World Steel Association (WSA) data. China’s production (54% of global crude steel supply) fell 6% YoY (vs. +12% YoY in December), while ex-China steel output also slipped 3% YoY. The WSA numbers show that Russian output inched down 1% YoY, while the US production rose 1% YoY last month, and EU supply fell 3% YoY. Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) grew 7% YoY in January
We reiterate our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the local property sector in 2025, but that more actions are required for a full-scale recovery in construction activity. To recap, Beijing might announce the first details of its new consumption-related fiscal stimulus in March
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations slid 3% YoY in January, vs. the +4% YoY in December. The figure matched our estimates, remaining 19% below the pre-COVID 2019 level
We maintain our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging the production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which could even be replaced with USD 1,000 new EV purchase tax) might stoke the PGM price recovery in 2025, given gradual shift from BEVs to hybrid vehicles
In 2023, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations slid 3% YoY in January, vs. the +4% YoY in December. The figure matched our estimates, remaining 19% below the pre-COVID 2019 level
We maintain our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging the production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the expected cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (which could even be replaced with USD 1,000 new EV purchase tax) might stoke the PGM price recovery in 2025, given gradual shift from BEVs to hybrid vehicles
In 2023, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites
📉Russia’s gold output declined 2.5% YoY in January, after the 5.9% YoY gain in December, per Rosstat data. The country’s output was also down over 40% MoM due to seasonal factors. Russia accounted for ~9% of the world's mined gold supply in 2023
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2025, given continuing inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
📉Russia’s gold output declined 2.5% YoY in January, after the 5.9% YoY gain in December, per Rosstat data. The country’s output was also down over 40% MoM due to seasonal factors. Russia accounted for ~9% of the world's mined gold supply in 2023
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2025, given continuing inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in mid-February was reported at 2.15mnt, up 0.8% vs. the previous ten days, and +2.4% YoY. Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 20 February), the output rose 2.3% YoY, per CISA data. Local steel inventories also increased 3.2% over the period (-11.9% YoY)
We reiterate our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the local property sector in 2025, but that more actions are required for a full-scale recovery in construction activity. To recap, Beijing might announce the first details of its new consumption-related fiscal stimulus in March
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in mid-February was reported at 2.15mnt, up 0.8% vs. the previous ten days, and +2.4% YoY. Meanwhile, on a YTD basis (through 20 February), the output rose 2.3% YoY, per CISA data. Local steel inventories also increased 3.2% over the period (-11.9% YoY)
We reiterate our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the local property sector in 2025, but that more actions are required for a full-scale recovery in construction activity. To recap, Beijing might announce the first details of its new consumption-related fiscal stimulus in March
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season is drawing to a close, several major M&M names are still due to release their 4Q/2H24 financials. Of those companies reporting this week, we are more conservative than the consensus on Fresnillo’s and SQM's EBITDA, but more upbeat on Ero Copper's upcoming results
This week is also due to bring the Chinese import/export data for January-February period
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
As the reporting season is drawing to a close, several major M&M names are still due to release their 4Q/2H24 financials. Of those companies reporting this week, we are more conservative than the consensus on Fresnillo’s and SQM's EBITDA, but more upbeat on Ero Copper's upcoming results
This week is also due to bring the Chinese import/export data for January-February period
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output grew 2.8% YoY in January, in line with the revised +3.3% YoY seen in December, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) gained 3.7% YoY last month, while ex. China output was up 1.5% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which continues to trade below what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level (USD 2,900-3,000/t for 2025F, on our numbers)
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 44.9mnt in January 2025 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output grew 2.8% YoY in January, in line with the revised +3.3% YoY seen in December, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) gained 3.7% YoY last month, while ex. China output was up 1.5% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which continues to trade below what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level (USD 2,900-3,000/t for 2025F, on our numbers)
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 44.9mnt in January 2025 in annualised terms, per IAI data)
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
Morning Bites
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs mainly improved in February. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 47.6 (vs. 46.6 in January), while the US ISM manufacturing PMI stood at 50.3
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China was 50.2 (vs. 49.1 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.8
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 56.3 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Global PMIs slightly improved in February, but the EU index remains well below 50.0, underlining the ongoing slowdown in European manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, we reiterate our view that China’s upcoming fiscal stimulus, which we expect to be announced in an annual parliamentary meeting (held from March 4 to 11) might bolster local demand for industrial metals this year (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper)
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs mainly improved in February. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 47.6 (vs. 46.6 in January), while the US ISM manufacturing PMI stood at 50.3
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China was 50.2 (vs. 49.1 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.8
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 56.3 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Global PMIs slightly improved in February, but the EU index remains well below 50.0, underlining the ongoing slowdown in European manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, we reiterate our view that China’s upcoming fiscal stimulus, which we expect to be announced in an annual parliamentary meeting (held from March 4 to 11) might bolster local demand for industrial metals this year (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper)
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports