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Global Metals&Mining Research from Glush&Team. No investment advice, just numbers & charts!
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Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗Global crude steel output rose 6% YoY to 145mnt in December
, after the +1% YoY in November, per World Steel Association data. China’s production (53% of global crude steel supply) jumped 12% YoY from the low base (but was still -2% YoY in 2024), while ex-China steel output slipped 1% YoY in December (flat YoY in 2024). The WSA numbers show that Russian and US production dropped 9% YoY and 2% YoY, respectively, last month, while EU supply gained 7% YoY. Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) grew 10% YoY in December, and was up 6% YoY on a whole year basis

We reiterate our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the local property sector in 2025, but that more actions are required for a full-scale recovery in construction activity

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)

🇨🇳Investment in China’s grid infrastructure fell 3% YoY in December, after the +8% YoY in November, per NBS data. Overall, the figure was up 15% YoY in 2024, and was 22% above the 2020-23 average. On our numbers, the grid accounted for 10-15% of Cu and Al demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals

Although State Grid sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically the company often exceeded its investment guidance

🥈Solar panel installations in China rose 29% YoY in December (also +29% YoY in 2024), vs. +18% YoY in November, per NEA data. Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30

#silver #copper #aluminium  
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in mid-January was reported at 2.07mnt, up 0.3% vs. the previous ten days, and down 1.1% YoY. Meanwhile, YTD (through 20 January), the output rose 0.6% YoY, per CISA data. Local steel inventories grew 2.7% over a 10-day period (-15.8% YoY)

We maintain our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing in late-2024 might bolster the slowly picking up Chinese property sector, but more actions are required in 2025 for a full-scale recovery in construction activity, we believe

China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)

🥉Global mined copper production jumped 3.7% YoY in November, vs. the +2.2% YoY in October, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Meanwhile, on an 11mo24 basis, output was up 1.5% YoY, mainly driven by an increase of DRC and Chilean output (+10% and +4%, respectively), while the ICSG notes solid global refined Cu consumption dynamics (+2.6% YoY in 11mo24), mainly driven by China (+3.0% YoY)

We maintain our positive view on copper, amid long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)

#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 3)

💎Mountain Province sales volumes stood flat YoY at 2.7mnct in 2024, while its average realised price dropped 20% YoY to USD 72/ct, amid the diamond market down-cycle, the miner reported. The company expects its 2025 production volume to be around the 2024 level. Although Mountain Province's report suggests industry confidence is still low, with negative diamond market sentiment in late-2024, its medium/long-term price outlook remains positive

Despite the steady jewellery sales growth in the key US downstream market (~53% of the global polished stone demand), the diamond market recovery might take more time than we had anticipated. In our view, the 2024 winter holidays sales did not bring much positivity, while midstream inventories remain elevated in early-2025, according to market participants

#diamonds  
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)

💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales dropped 9% YoY December, after the -35% YoY in November, marking the lowest point for the corresponding month in the last ten years, according to the NBS data. Overall, local jewellery sales were down 3% YoY in 2024

Despite strong sales in the key US downstream market (~53% of the global gem-set jewellery trade), the diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated. In our view, the 2024 winter holidays sales did not bring much positivity, while midstream inventories remain elevated in early-2025, according to market participants

#diamonds  
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)

Indonesia has increased its 2025 nickel mining quota 10% YoY to 298mnt, despite earlier discussions about a potential 25-45% YoY cut to 150-200mnt, according to the local nickel miner association (APNI). Although the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Bahlil Lahadalia, emphasised that the government has no plans to reduce nickel ore output this year, the quota might be reduced in 2H25, mainly among assets that have not yet commenced operations

We reiterate our view that at spot Ni continues to trade below what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level (USD ~20,000/t for 2025F)

#Nickel 
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)

📈China’s output of aluminium products rose 3% YoY to 6.1mnt in December, in-line with the November dynamics. Total output for 2024 was up 6% YoY. Given the strong demand for Al in China (~60% of global consumption), bolstered by the rapid expansion of the local new energy sector, we maintain our positive view on the metal. On our numbers, the fundamentally reasonable Al price for 2025 is USD ~2,900/t

🥉China's output of copper products surged 17% YoY in December to 2.3mnt (from the low base), vs. +6% in November. Overall, in 2024, the output inched down 2%. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t in 2025). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand

#aluminium #copper
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
 
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery rose 3% YoY in 4Q24, after three quarters of consecutive YoY declines, according to a press release from the retailer. Meanwhile, its revenue in the Watches & Jewelry segment decreased 2% YoY on an organic basis in 2024

Despite the steady jewellery sales growth in the key US downstream market (~53% of the global polished stone demand), the diamond market recovery might take more time than we had anticipated. In our view, the 2024 winter holidays sales did not bring much cause for bullishness, while midstream inventories remain elevated in early-2025, according to market participants

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites

🏦 The PBoC purchased ~10t of gold in December, vs +5t in November, Bloomberg reports. Although PBoC did not report any purchases in May-October, we note that the official statistics for 9mo24 reflect only 33% of total demand from government institutions (per WGC estimates). In our view, PBoC reports only visible gold inflows, excluding significant volumes purchased through non-public organisations and monetary gold

Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think there are more upside risks in the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as the ongoing geopolitical tensions

#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Week ahead data releases in M&M

As the reporting season continues apace, several major M&M names (e.g., Erdemir, Arcelor and Peabody) are scheduled to release their 4Q24 financials this week. Our estimates for the steelmakers’ EBITDAs are mostly in line with the consensus, while we are less upbeat on Peabody’s performance

#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites

🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output rose 4% YoY in November, after the +3% YoY in October, according to the official statistics. Meanwhile, local gold production dropped 12% YoY, accelerating from the -3% YoY in October. In our view, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, and the increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the upcoming cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US, might bolster PGM prices in 2025

SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production

#PGMs #gold        
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites

🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in January. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 46.6 (vs. 45.1 in December), while the US ISM manufacturing PMI expanded to 50.9, having recovered to over 50.0 for the first time since early 2024

🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China was 49.1 (vs. 50.1 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.1

🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 57.7 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies

❗️Global PMIs slightly improved in January (except for China), but EU index remains well below 50.0, underlining the ongoing slowdown in European manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, we reiterate our view that China’s additional fiscal stimulus (expected to be announced in March 2025) might bolster local demand for industrial metals this year (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper)

#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)

🇨🇱Chile’s copper output jumped 14% YoY in December, accelerating from the +10% YoY in November, according to the INE data. This marked the strongest monthly output ever, primarily due to improved supply at the Escondida and Collahuasi mines, as well as the ramp-up of the QB2 project. Overall, in 2024, the country’s Cu output was up 5% YoY

Despite the planned ramp-up of Chilean capacities in the near future, we maintain our positive view on copper, amid long-term supply issues and growing demand for renewables globally, as well as surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)

Chile accounts for ~24% of global Cu supply

#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 2)

💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales dropped 14% YoY in December, accelerating from the -5% YoY seen in November, per government data. Overall, in FY24 local sales declined 14% YoY. According to Rapaport, HK sales dropped in December as residents preferred traveling abroad during the holiday period, and spent less domestically

Despite strong sales in the key US downstream market (~53% of the global gem-set jewellery trade), the diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated. In our view, the 2024 winter holidays sales did not bring much positivity, while midstream inventories remain elevated in early-2025, according to market participants

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)

🏆Global physical gold demand rose 4% YoY to 1,308t in 4Q24, after the 20% YoY decline seen in 3Q24, according to the World Gold Council data. The figure was also down 5% YoY in FY24. Specifically, central bank purchases in 4Q24 surged 54% YoY (in FY24, they were -1% YoY), but gold jewellery demand was down 12% YoY

Meanwhile, total global gold demand was up 11% YoY in 4Q24 (flat YoY in 2024), thanks to solid ETF inflows. At the same time, world mined gold output stood unchanged YoY in 4Q24 (also flat YoY in 2024)

Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think there are more upside risks in the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as the ongoing geopolitical tensions

#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 2)

💎US jewellery sales grew 4% YoY in December, vs. the revised 3% YoY gain in November, IDEX reports, citing the local Department of Commerce data. Overall sales were up 5% YoY, on our numbers. According to Rapaport, US retailers faced a lack of special 3ct+ polished stones, with less-desirable items building up in inventories in December

Although the solid sales dynamics in the key US downstream market (~53% of the global gem-set jewellery trade) is favourable for sentiment, the diamond market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, given that there are still elevated midstream inventories in early-2025, according to market participants

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
 
💎De Beers reduced its rough diamond output 23% YoY in 2024, and has lowered its production guidance for 2025-27
, per an Anglo American press release. We remind readers that in 2024 the company had already lowered its diamond production guidance twice and cut rough prices three times (in total by ~20%), but market conditions remain soft, underpinning still high midstream inventories

According to the updated forecast, De Beers plans to produce 20-23mnct in 2025 (-30% vs. the previous guideline of 30-33mnct). Hence, its 2025 output may fall 10-15% YoY after the -23% YoY seen in 2024. The total 10mnct reduction in 2023-25 accounts up to 15% of global supply

In our view, supply-side discipline is a positive factor for diamond market sentiment. However, market recovery might take longer than we had anticipated, given there were still elevated midstream inventories in early-2025, according to market participants

#diamonds 
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Week ahead data releases in M&M

As the reporting season continues apace, several major M&M names are scheduled to release their 4Q24/2H24 financials this week. Our estimates for the miners’ EBITDAs are mostly in line with the consensus, while we are more upbeat on S32’s performance

#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events