Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳Total car sales in China grew 11% YoY in December (vs. +12% YoY in November)
📌China’s new ICE car sales declined 3% YoY in December, vs. the 7% YoY drop in November. Although the growing appetite for BEVs in China is affecting PGM consumption, sales of catalyst-containing cars (ICE + PHEV) grew 8% YoY in December. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 33% YoY in December, vs. +47% YoY in November. Specifically, BEV sales (61% of total EV registrations vs. 69% in Dec-23) grew 18% YoY, while PHEVs added 70% YoY. Given the gradual shift to hybrids in China (which contain catalysts), this might add some support to PGM market fundamentals in the medium term, we believe
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇨🇳Total car sales in China grew 11% YoY in December (vs. +12% YoY in November)
📌China’s new ICE car sales declined 3% YoY in December, vs. the 7% YoY drop in November. Although the growing appetite for BEVs in China is affecting PGM consumption, sales of catalyst-containing cars (ICE + PHEV) grew 8% YoY in December. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 33% YoY in December, vs. +47% YoY in November. Specifically, BEV sales (61% of total EV registrations vs. 69% in Dec-23) grew 18% YoY, while PHEVs added 70% YoY. Given the gradual shift to hybrids in China (which contain catalysts), this might add some support to PGM market fundamentals in the medium term, we believe
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales declined 5% YoY in November, decelerating from the 11% YoY drop seen in October, per government data. According to Rapaport, local trading picked up gradually ahead of Christmas and Chinese New Year, but business was still slower than in previous years
Despite weak sales dynamics in HK, sentiment remains strong in the key US market (~53% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade), which is likely to support the implied recovery in the stressed diamond sector in 2025, in our view
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales declined 5% YoY in November, decelerating from the 11% YoY drop seen in October, per government data. According to Rapaport, local trading picked up gradually ahead of Christmas and Chinese New Year, but business was still slower than in previous years
Despite weak sales dynamics in HK, sentiment remains strong in the key US market (~53% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade), which is likely to support the implied recovery in the stressed diamond sector in 2025, in our view
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 3)
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports were down 37% YoY in December, vs. the +96% YoY (from a low base) in November. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 12% YoY (also from a low base: net exports were -48% YoY in December 2023), vs. -27% YoY a month ago. Synthetic rough diamond net imports decreased 51% YoY. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 8%
To recap, GJEPC has recently noted the looming recovery in the diamond industry, driven by significant reductions in polished inventories across markets. We continue to believe that the current reduction of inventories will lead to midstream restocking in 1H25, in addition to steady jewellery sales growth in the key US downstream market
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports were down 37% YoY in December, vs. the +96% YoY (from a low base) in November. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 12% YoY (also from a low base: net exports were -48% YoY in December 2023), vs. -27% YoY a month ago. Synthetic rough diamond net imports decreased 51% YoY. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 8%
To recap, GJEPC has recently noted the looming recovery in the diamond industry, driven by significant reductions in polished inventories across markets. We continue to believe that the current reduction of inventories will lead to midstream restocking in 1H25, in addition to steady jewellery sales growth in the key US downstream market
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 4)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany were flat YoY in December, following the 4% YoY fall in November, and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-15% vs. December 2019). In Germany, car sales were 21% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in France and Italy were 13% and 25% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 6% below the 2019 level, while sales in Spain were in line with 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2023, the region’s car sales likely remained flat YoY last month, still well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany were flat YoY in December, following the 4% YoY fall in November, and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-15% vs. December 2019). In Germany, car sales were 21% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in France and Italy were 13% and 25% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 6% below the 2019 level, while sales in Spain were in line with 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2023, the region’s car sales likely remained flat YoY last month, still well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites
🚘US light vehicle sales rose 2% YoY in December, vs. the 10% YoY gain in November. The figure remained 5% below the pre-Covid 2019 level. Overall, US car registrations were up 2% YoY in 2024. According to Reuters, citing Wards Intelligence data, the 2024 sales growth was bolstered by soaring consumer interest for hybrids (+37% YoY in 2024), offsetting the slowing demand for EVs, which underpins our positive view on the medium-term market fundamentals for PGMs
We reiterate our view that ongoing monetary easing in the US might add further support to local car sales in 2025. On our numbers, North America accounted for 22% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2023
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🚘US light vehicle sales rose 2% YoY in December, vs. the 10% YoY gain in November. The figure remained 5% below the pre-Covid 2019 level. Overall, US car registrations were up 2% YoY in 2024. According to Reuters, citing Wards Intelligence data, the 2024 sales growth was bolstered by soaring consumer interest for hybrids (+37% YoY in 2024), offsetting the slowing demand for EVs, which underpins our positive view on the medium-term market fundamentals for PGMs
We reiterate our view that ongoing monetary easing in the US might add further support to local car sales in 2025. On our numbers, North America accounted for 22% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2023
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for December (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output jumped 12% YoY in December (from a low base) vs. 3% YoY gain in November, per NBS data. Meanwhile, the total figure for 2024 decreased 2% YoY. According to Reuters, China's steel output has been on a trending lower after peaking at 1.065bnt in 2020, given the downturn in the steel-intensive property sector. Specifically, local steel consumption decreased 4.4% YoY in 2024
🏢China's property sales stood flat YoY in December, after the 3% YoY gain in November, and were down 47% vs. December 2021. Overall sales in 2024 were lower 13% YoY, and 46% less than 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 17% YoY in December (-23% YoY in 2024, - 63% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans jumped 16% YoY in December (-27% YoY in 2024, -52% vs. 2021), while property completions fell 26% YoY (-26% YoY in 2024, -27% vs. 2021)
More stimulus is needed for full-scale recovery, we believe
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output jumped 12% YoY in December (from a low base) vs. 3% YoY gain in November, per NBS data. Meanwhile, the total figure for 2024 decreased 2% YoY. According to Reuters, China's steel output has been on a trending lower after peaking at 1.065bnt in 2020, given the downturn in the steel-intensive property sector. Specifically, local steel consumption decreased 4.4% YoY in 2024
🏢China's property sales stood flat YoY in December, after the 3% YoY gain in November, and were down 47% vs. December 2021. Overall sales in 2024 were lower 13% YoY, and 46% less than 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 17% YoY in December (-23% YoY in 2024, - 63% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans jumped 16% YoY in December (-27% YoY in 2024, -52% vs. 2021), while property completions fell 26% YoY (-26% YoY in 2024, -27% vs. 2021)
More stimulus is needed for full-scale recovery, we believe
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales jumped 14% YoY in 4Q24, accelerating from +2% in 3Q24, according to a press-release from the retailer. This was the sharpest increase since 2Q23 and the highest sales result ever in nominal terms. Overall sales growth was again recorded in almost all regions except Asia Pacific (-7% YoY): Europe (+19% YoY), Americas (+22% YoY), Japan and Middle East (+15% and +21% YoY, respectively)
We reiterate our view that consistently solid US demand (53% of global gem-set jewellery trade), especially in the seasonally most important pre-Christmas period, is likely to support the recovery in stressed global diamond market in 2025
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales jumped 14% YoY in 4Q24, accelerating from +2% in 3Q24, according to a press-release from the retailer. This was the sharpest increase since 2Q23 and the highest sales result ever in nominal terms. Overall sales growth was again recorded in almost all regions except Asia Pacific (-7% YoY): Europe (+19% YoY), Americas (+22% YoY), Japan and Middle East (+15% and +21% YoY, respectively)
We reiterate our view that consistently solid US demand (53% of global gem-set jewellery trade), especially in the seasonally most important pre-Christmas period, is likely to support the recovery in stressed global diamond market in 2025
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 3)
🇨🇱Chile has cut its medium-term copper production outlook, with peak supply seen in 2027, Bloomberg reports, citing an updated forecast by the country's copper commission, Cochilco. According to the report, aging Chilean mines and a more realistic approach to calculating project development are likely to bring, on average, ~15% lower supply in 2028-34 (2-3% of global output, as Chile accounts for ~24% of global Cu supply), compared with the 2023 estimates. Furthermore, local production is now expected to peak 2 years earlier - in 2027 at 6.1mnt
We maintain our positive view on copper, given supply issues and growing demand for renewables globally, as well as surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇨🇱Chile has cut its medium-term copper production outlook, with peak supply seen in 2027, Bloomberg reports, citing an updated forecast by the country's copper commission, Cochilco. According to the report, aging Chilean mines and a more realistic approach to calculating project development are likely to bring, on average, ~15% lower supply in 2028-34 (2-3% of global output, as Chile accounts for ~24% of global Cu supply), compared with the 2023 estimates. Furthermore, local production is now expected to peak 2 years earlier - in 2027 at 6.1mnt
We maintain our positive view on copper, given supply issues and growing demand for renewables globally, as well as surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season gets underway, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Alcoa and Freeport are set to release their 4Q24 earnings. On the EBITDA side, we are more bullish than the consensus on Alcoa, but in-line with market estimates on Freeport’s performance
This week, we also expect to see monthly EU car sales data, as well as South African mining statistics
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
As the reporting season gets underway, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Alcoa and Freeport are set to release their 4Q24 earnings. On the EBITDA side, we are more bullish than the consensus on Alcoa, but in-line with market estimates on Freeport’s performance
This week, we also expect to see monthly EU car sales data, as well as South African mining statistics
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-January was reported at 2.07mnt, up 10.3% vs. the previous ten days, and +2.3% YoY. Local steel inventories increased 1.8% over the period (-12.5% YoY)
We maintain our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the slowly picking up Chinese property sector, but more actions would be required in 2025 for a full-scale recovery in construction activity, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-January was reported at 2.07mnt, up 10.3% vs. the previous ten days, and +2.3% YoY. Local steel inventories increased 1.8% over the period (-12.5% YoY)
We maintain our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the slowly picking up Chinese property sector, but more actions would be required in 2025 for a full-scale recovery in construction activity, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output declined 5% YoY in November, after the 1% YoY decrease in October, per MINEM data. Although the Peruvian government initially planned to boost domestic Cu supply 9% YoY in 2024 (after the 13% YoY gain in 2023), the output on an 11mo24 basis has in fact declined 1% YoY. The country is therefore likely to fail to reach its guidance. Given looming Cu supply disruptions and strong demand trends globally (especially in China), we reiterate our bullish view on copper
The joint production of Chile and Peru (~24% and ~12% of global Cu supply, respectively) inched up 2% YoY on a 11mo24 basis
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output declined 5% YoY in November, after the 1% YoY decrease in October, per MINEM data. Although the Peruvian government initially planned to boost domestic Cu supply 9% YoY in 2024 (after the 13% YoY gain in 2023), the output on an 11mo24 basis has in fact declined 1% YoY. The country is therefore likely to fail to reach its guidance. Given looming Cu supply disruptions and strong demand trends globally (especially in China), we reiterate our bullish view on copper
The joint production of Chile and Peru (~24% and ~12% of global Cu supply, respectively) inched up 2% YoY on a 11mo24 basis
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏭Cooper treatment charges (TC) plunged to a record low of minus USD 8.3/t in early-2025, as Indonesian supply disruption exacerbates an already tight market, Bloomberg reports, citing Fastmarket data. The processing fee fell to its lowest point since 2013, as smelters compete to secure feedstock. Chinese smelters (~50% of the world’s output) are stepping up spot purchases amid the concentrate shortage: Jiangxi Copper last month signed concentrate supply deals for this year at $21.25/t, which is below the breakeven point of $35-40/t
We maintain our positive view on copper, given supply issues related to growing global demand for renewables, as well as surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🏭Cooper treatment charges (TC) plunged to a record low of minus USD 8.3/t in early-2025, as Indonesian supply disruption exacerbates an already tight market, Bloomberg reports, citing Fastmarket data. The processing fee fell to its lowest point since 2013, as smelters compete to secure feedstock. Chinese smelters (~50% of the world’s output) are stepping up spot purchases amid the concentrate shortage: Jiangxi Copper last month signed concentrate supply deals for this year at $21.25/t, which is below the breakeven point of $35-40/t
We maintain our positive view on copper, given supply issues related to growing global demand for renewables, as well as surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations gained 4% YoY in December, vs. the -2% YoY in November. The figure was slightly ahead of our estimates (flat YoY), but remained 13% below the pre-COVID 2019 level. Total car sales in the region inched up 1% YoY in 2024
We maintain our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the upcoming cancellation of EV-support programs in the US, might bolster PGM prices in 2025
In 2023, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations gained 4% YoY in December, vs. the -2% YoY in November. The figure was slightly ahead of our estimates (flat YoY), but remained 13% below the pre-COVID 2019 level. Total car sales in the region inched up 1% YoY in 2024
We maintain our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the upcoming cancellation of EV-support programs in the US, might bolster PGM prices in 2025
In 2023, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Luk Fook’s 4Q24 LFL sales decreased 46% YoY in the diamond jewellery segment, in line with the 45% YoY drop in 3Q24, according to a press release from the retailer. Specifically, the company’s sales in HK and Macau slid 47% YoY
Despite currently weak retail demand in China, we maintain our view that consistently solid US sales (53% of global gem-set jewellery trade), especially in the seasonally most important pre-Christmas period, are likely to bolster the recovery in stressed global diamond market in 2025
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Luk Fook’s 4Q24 LFL sales decreased 46% YoY in the diamond jewellery segment, in line with the 45% YoY drop in 3Q24, according to a press release from the retailer. Specifically, the company’s sales in HK and Macau slid 47% YoY
Despite currently weak retail demand in China, we maintain our view that consistently solid US sales (53% of global gem-set jewellery trade), especially in the seasonally most important pre-Christmas period, are likely to bolster the recovery in stressed global diamond market in 2025
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇪🇺 Total car sales in the EU inched up 1% YoY in 2024, as surging demand for HEVs (+20% YoY in 2024) offset the weakening sakes of petrol and diesel cars.
🚗💨Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in the EU rose 1% YoY in 4Q24 (+2% YoY in 2024), vs. the 5% YoY decline in 3Q24. Petrol car sales were down 10% YoY in 4Q24 (vs. -15% YoY in 3Q24), while diesel car registrations dropped 14% YoY (vs. -20% YoY in 3Q24). Diesel cars accounted for 24% of pure-ICE car sales in 4Q24 (flat QoQ and YoY). HEV sales jumped 21% YoY (vs. +15% YoY in 3Q24), as buyers see them as an affordable compromise between pure-ICE and EVs
🚘EU+UK EV sales were flat YoY in 4Q24 (-2% YoY in 2024), after the 11% YoY drop in 3Q24. In particular, in 4Q24, BEV sales gained 2% YoY (vs. -10% YoY in 3Q24), while PHEV sales fell 4% YoY (vs. -14% YoY in 3Q24). The share of BEVs in total EV sales fell slightly to 68% in 4Q24, from 70% in 3Q24
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇪🇺 Total car sales in the EU inched up 1% YoY in 2024, as surging demand for HEVs (+20% YoY in 2024) offset the weakening sakes of petrol and diesel cars.
🚗💨Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in the EU rose 1% YoY in 4Q24 (+2% YoY in 2024), vs. the 5% YoY decline in 3Q24. Petrol car sales were down 10% YoY in 4Q24 (vs. -15% YoY in 3Q24), while diesel car registrations dropped 14% YoY (vs. -20% YoY in 3Q24). Diesel cars accounted for 24% of pure-ICE car sales in 4Q24 (flat QoQ and YoY). HEV sales jumped 21% YoY (vs. +15% YoY in 3Q24), as buyers see them as an affordable compromise between pure-ICE and EVs
🚘EU+UK EV sales were flat YoY in 4Q24 (-2% YoY in 2024), after the 11% YoY drop in 3Q24. In particular, in 4Q24, BEV sales gained 2% YoY (vs. -10% YoY in 3Q24), while PHEV sales fell 4% YoY (vs. -14% YoY in 3Q24). The share of BEVs in total EV sales fell slightly to 68% in 4Q24, from 70% in 3Q24
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏦 China’s aggregate financing jumped 38% YoY in December to CNY 2.26tn, reversing from the 5% YoY drop in November. Overall, the figure was down 10% YoY in 2024. Traditional bank loans dropped 15% YoY in December (-20% YoY in 2024), but surpassed the consensus estimates by 16%. According to Trading Economics, December saw an increase in credit demand boosted by the government's stimulus measures
In our view, the positive effect from the new economic support measures recently announced by Beijing started to gradually materialise in late-2024, but more actions are still required to trigger a full-scale recovery in construction activity in 2025
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🏦 China’s aggregate financing jumped 38% YoY in December to CNY 2.26tn, reversing from the 5% YoY drop in November. Overall, the figure was down 10% YoY in 2024. Traditional bank loans dropped 15% YoY in December (-20% YoY in 2024), but surpassed the consensus estimates by 16%. According to Trading Economics, December saw an increase in credit demand boosted by the government's stimulus measures
In our view, the positive effect from the new economic support measures recently announced by Beijing started to gradually materialise in late-2024, but more actions are still required to trigger a full-scale recovery in construction activity in 2025
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports