Morning Bites
📈Russia’s gold output inched up 1.4% YoY in November, decelerating from the +24.8% YoY in October, per Rosstat data. On an 11mo24 basis, the output was up 5.2% YoY. We recap that Russia accounted for ~9% of the world's mined gold supply in 2023
Although, at spot, gold keeps trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for late-2024 (~USD 2,400/oz), we observe more upside risks in the precious metal’s price amid continuing inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
📈Russia’s gold output inched up 1.4% YoY in November, decelerating from the +24.8% YoY in October, per Rosstat data. On an 11mo24 basis, the output was up 5.2% YoY. We recap that Russia accounted for ~9% of the world's mined gold supply in 2023
Although, at spot, gold keeps trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for late-2024 (~USD 2,400/oz), we observe more upside risks in the precious metal’s price amid continuing inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output grew 3.0% YoY in November, vs. the 1.3% YoY gain in October, per International Aluminium Institute data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) gained 4.6% YoY last month. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which continues to trade below what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level (USD 2,800-3,000/t for 2025, on our numbers)
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (vs. ~43.2mnt annualised in 11mo24)
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output grew 3.0% YoY in November, vs. the 1.3% YoY gain in October, per International Aluminium Institute data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) gained 4.6% YoY last month. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which continues to trade below what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level (USD 2,800-3,000/t for 2025, on our numbers)
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (vs. ~43.2mnt annualised in 11mo24)
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
Dear Metals Wire subscribers,
Thank you for being with us in 2024. We wish you a happy New Year and hope your 2025 sparkles with opportunities and shines with success
We shall return in 2025, sharing our analysis of metals & mining commodities and the most important industry news
All the very best,
The Metals Wire Team
Thank you for being with us in 2024. We wish you a happy New Year and hope your 2025 sparkles with opportunities and shines with success
We shall return in 2025, sharing our analysis of metals & mining commodities and the most important industry news
All the very best,
The Metals Wire Team
❤5🍾3
Morning Bites (part 1)
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in December. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 45.1 (almost in-line with November print), while the US ISM manufacturing PMI increased to 49.3, surpassing market estimates of 48.4
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China was 50.1 (vs. 50.3 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI inched down to 50.5, below the forecast of 51.7
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 56.4 remains one of the most bullish indicators among the world's key economies
❗️In December, EU/US PMIs stood below 50.0, representing the ongoing slowdown in their manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, China’s new economic stimulus and potentially greater fiscal support in 2025 might add some positive to local demand for industrial metals this year (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper), we believe
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in December. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 45.1 (almost in-line with November print), while the US ISM manufacturing PMI increased to 49.3, surpassing market estimates of 48.4
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China was 50.1 (vs. 50.3 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI inched down to 50.5, below the forecast of 51.7
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 56.4 remains one of the most bullish indicators among the world's key economies
❗️In December, EU/US PMIs stood below 50.0, representing the ongoing slowdown in their manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, China’s new economic stimulus and potentially greater fiscal support in 2025 might add some positive to local demand for industrial metals this year (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper), we believe
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎US jewellery sales grew 6% YoY in November 2024, vs. the revised spike of 10% YoY in October, IDEX reports, citing the local Department of Commerce data. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, US jewellery sales in November-December gained 4% YoY, implying a ~3% YoY increase in the seasonally most important pre-Christmas sales in December, on our numbers
We reiterate our view that the solid downstream demand in the US (~53% of global gem-set jewellery trade) is likely to accelerate the ongoing destocking in 1Q25, supporting sentiment in the still stressed diamond market, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎US jewellery sales grew 6% YoY in November 2024, vs. the revised spike of 10% YoY in October, IDEX reports, citing the local Department of Commerce data. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, US jewellery sales in November-December gained 4% YoY, implying a ~3% YoY increase in the seasonally most important pre-Christmas sales in December, on our numbers
We reiterate our view that the solid downstream demand in the US (~53% of global gem-set jewellery trade) is likely to accelerate the ongoing destocking in 1Q25, supporting sentiment in the still stressed diamond market, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 3)
🏦 Global central banks purchased 53t of gold (net) in November, vs. the revised +48t in October, the World Gold Council (WGC) reports. The major contributors were Poland (+21t), Uzbekistan (+9t), and India (+8t). Meanwhile, Singapore sold 5t — the only significant sale
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 4t of gold (net) in December, vs. -29t in November. According to the WGC, Asian funds led in terms of global inflows (+9t), while North American funds sold 5t
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think there are more upside risks in the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as the ongoing geopolitical tensions
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏦 Global central banks purchased 53t of gold (net) in November, vs. the revised +48t in October, the World Gold Council (WGC) reports. The major contributors were Poland (+21t), Uzbekistan (+9t), and India (+8t). Meanwhile, Singapore sold 5t — the only significant sale
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 4t of gold (net) in December, vs. -29t in November. According to the WGC, Asian funds led in terms of global inflows (+9t), while North American funds sold 5t
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think there are more upside risks in the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as the ongoing geopolitical tensions
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏗China’s excavator sales grew 16% YoY in December (domestic + export), after the 18% YoY growth in November, according to the CCMA data. Domestic sales were up 22% YoY (but were still down 40% from December 2021), which underpins the statement from China’s Housing Minister Ni Hong that the local real estate sector has started to bottom out gradually (property sales recovered 3% YoY in November 2024)
Despite some positive effect from the recent economic stimulus in China, more actions are required in 2025 for a full-scale rebound in construction activity, we believe
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s excavator sales grew 16% YoY in December (domestic + export), after the 18% YoY growth in November, according to the CCMA data. Domestic sales were up 22% YoY (but were still down 40% from December 2021), which underpins the statement from China’s Housing Minister Ni Hong that the local real estate sector has started to bottom out gradually (property sales recovered 3% YoY in November 2024)
Despite some positive effect from the recent economic stimulus in China, more actions are required in 2025 for a full-scale rebound in construction activity, we believe
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production during late December was reported at 1.87mnt, down 5.3% vs. the previous ten days, but up 12.4% YoY, from the low base. Meanwhile, local steel inventories fell 15.5% over the period (flat YoY). Per CISA data, during 2024, China's production slid 1.3% YoY
We reiterate our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the local property sector in 2025, but more actions are required for a full-scale recovery in construction activity
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production during late December was reported at 1.87mnt, down 5.3% vs. the previous ten days, but up 12.4% YoY, from the low base. Meanwhile, local steel inventories fell 15.5% over the period (flat YoY). Per CISA data, during 2024, China's production slid 1.3% YoY
We reiterate our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the local property sector in 2025, but more actions are required for a full-scale recovery in construction activity
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for December (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 29% YoY in December 2024, after the 19% YoY increase in November. Overall, the country’s net steel exports jumped 25% YoY in 2024, amid continuously soft domestic steel demand, that pushed local mills to ship more volumes overseas
Meanwhile, according to the CISA data, Chinese steel output inched down 1.3% YoY in 2024
🪨China’s coal imports jumped 11% YoY in December, decelerating from the 26% YoY growth in November. The figure was also up 14% YoY in 2024. According to Reuters, the growth was driven by a decline in global coal prices, which forced buyers to replace domestic supplies with imports
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 29% YoY in December 2024, after the 19% YoY increase in November. Overall, the country’s net steel exports jumped 25% YoY in 2024, amid continuously soft domestic steel demand, that pushed local mills to ship more volumes overseas
Meanwhile, according to the CISA data, Chinese steel output inched down 1.3% YoY in 2024
🪨China’s coal imports jumped 11% YoY in December, decelerating from the 26% YoY growth in November. The figure was also up 14% YoY in 2024. According to Reuters, the growth was driven by a decline in global coal prices, which forced buyers to replace domestic supplies with imports
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output rose 10% YoY in November, accelerating from the 7% YoY gain in October, according to INE data. On an 11mo24 basis, the country’s Cu output was also up ~4% YoY. Meanwhile, Chile's largest miner, Codelco (~7% of global Cu supply) failed to fulfill its guidance of 5% YoY production growth in 2024 (it was actually flat YoY), as we had anticipated. In 2023, the company also missed its own output estimates: 1.33mnt actual production vs. 1.45mnt initially planned
Chile accounts for ~24% of global Cu supply
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output rose 10% YoY in November, accelerating from the 7% YoY gain in October, according to INE data. On an 11mo24 basis, the country’s Cu output was also up ~4% YoY. Meanwhile, Chile's largest miner, Codelco (~7% of global Cu supply) failed to fulfill its guidance of 5% YoY production growth in 2024 (it was actually flat YoY), as we had anticipated. In 2023, the company also missed its own output estimates: 1.33mnt actual production vs. 1.45mnt initially planned
Chile accounts for ~24% of global Cu supply
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳Total car sales in China grew 11% YoY in December (vs. +12% YoY in November)
📌China’s new ICE car sales declined 3% YoY in December, vs. the 7% YoY drop in November. Although the growing appetite for BEVs in China is affecting PGM consumption, sales of catalyst-containing cars (ICE + PHEV) grew 8% YoY in December. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 33% YoY in December, vs. +47% YoY in November. Specifically, BEV sales (61% of total EV registrations vs. 69% in Dec-23) grew 18% YoY, while PHEVs added 70% YoY. Given the gradual shift to hybrids in China (which contain catalysts), this might add some support to PGM market fundamentals in the medium term, we believe
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇨🇳Total car sales in China grew 11% YoY in December (vs. +12% YoY in November)
📌China’s new ICE car sales declined 3% YoY in December, vs. the 7% YoY drop in November. Although the growing appetite for BEVs in China is affecting PGM consumption, sales of catalyst-containing cars (ICE + PHEV) grew 8% YoY in December. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 33% YoY in December, vs. +47% YoY in November. Specifically, BEV sales (61% of total EV registrations vs. 69% in Dec-23) grew 18% YoY, while PHEVs added 70% YoY. Given the gradual shift to hybrids in China (which contain catalysts), this might add some support to PGM market fundamentals in the medium term, we believe
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales declined 5% YoY in November, decelerating from the 11% YoY drop seen in October, per government data. According to Rapaport, local trading picked up gradually ahead of Christmas and Chinese New Year, but business was still slower than in previous years
Despite weak sales dynamics in HK, sentiment remains strong in the key US market (~53% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade), which is likely to support the implied recovery in the stressed diamond sector in 2025, in our view
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales declined 5% YoY in November, decelerating from the 11% YoY drop seen in October, per government data. According to Rapaport, local trading picked up gradually ahead of Christmas and Chinese New Year, but business was still slower than in previous years
Despite weak sales dynamics in HK, sentiment remains strong in the key US market (~53% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade), which is likely to support the implied recovery in the stressed diamond sector in 2025, in our view
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 3)
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports were down 37% YoY in December, vs. the +96% YoY (from a low base) in November. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 12% YoY (also from a low base: net exports were -48% YoY in December 2023), vs. -27% YoY a month ago. Synthetic rough diamond net imports decreased 51% YoY. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 8%
To recap, GJEPC has recently noted the looming recovery in the diamond industry, driven by significant reductions in polished inventories across markets. We continue to believe that the current reduction of inventories will lead to midstream restocking in 1H25, in addition to steady jewellery sales growth in the key US downstream market
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports were down 37% YoY in December, vs. the +96% YoY (from a low base) in November. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports rose 12% YoY (also from a low base: net exports were -48% YoY in December 2023), vs. -27% YoY a month ago. Synthetic rough diamond net imports decreased 51% YoY. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 8%
To recap, GJEPC has recently noted the looming recovery in the diamond industry, driven by significant reductions in polished inventories across markets. We continue to believe that the current reduction of inventories will lead to midstream restocking in 1H25, in addition to steady jewellery sales growth in the key US downstream market
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 4)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany were flat YoY in December, following the 4% YoY fall in November, and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-15% vs. December 2019). In Germany, car sales were 21% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in France and Italy were 13% and 25% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 6% below the 2019 level, while sales in Spain were in line with 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2023, the region’s car sales likely remained flat YoY last month, still well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany were flat YoY in December, following the 4% YoY fall in November, and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-15% vs. December 2019). In Germany, car sales were 21% below their 2019 levels, while registrations in France and Italy were 13% and 25% weaker, respectively. UK sales were 6% below the 2019 level, while sales in Spain were in line with 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2023, the region’s car sales likely remained flat YoY last month, still well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites
🚘US light vehicle sales rose 2% YoY in December, vs. the 10% YoY gain in November. The figure remained 5% below the pre-Covid 2019 level. Overall, US car registrations were up 2% YoY in 2024. According to Reuters, citing Wards Intelligence data, the 2024 sales growth was bolstered by soaring consumer interest for hybrids (+37% YoY in 2024), offsetting the slowing demand for EVs, which underpins our positive view on the medium-term market fundamentals for PGMs
We reiterate our view that ongoing monetary easing in the US might add further support to local car sales in 2025. On our numbers, North America accounted for 22% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2023
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🚘US light vehicle sales rose 2% YoY in December, vs. the 10% YoY gain in November. The figure remained 5% below the pre-Covid 2019 level. Overall, US car registrations were up 2% YoY in 2024. According to Reuters, citing Wards Intelligence data, the 2024 sales growth was bolstered by soaring consumer interest for hybrids (+37% YoY in 2024), offsetting the slowing demand for EVs, which underpins our positive view on the medium-term market fundamentals for PGMs
We reiterate our view that ongoing monetary easing in the US might add further support to local car sales in 2025. On our numbers, North America accounted for 22% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2023
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for December (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports