Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s finished steel net exports rose 19% YoY in November, after the +46% YoY surge in October. To recap, soft domestic demand led to elevated exports in 11mo24, which might also remain high in late-2024, amid China's concerns about global trade relations in 2025. We reiterate our view that the new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional stimulus to be discussed at the economic forum on 11-12 December) might bolster local construction activity in 2025
🪨China’s coal imports jumped 26% YoY in November, after the 28% YoY rise in October. According to Reuters, China's coal imports surged to a record high in November, as imported supply was cheaper than domestic coal
🏭 China’s aluminum exports surged 37% YoY in November (the volume has only been surpassed once before, in May 2022), ahead of China's 13% export rebates cancellation from December
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🔗China’s finished steel net exports rose 19% YoY in November, after the +46% YoY surge in October. To recap, soft domestic demand led to elevated exports in 11mo24, which might also remain high in late-2024, amid China's concerns about global trade relations in 2025. We reiterate our view that the new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional stimulus to be discussed at the economic forum on 11-12 December) might bolster local construction activity in 2025
🪨China’s coal imports jumped 26% YoY in November, after the 28% YoY rise in October. According to Reuters, China's coal imports surged to a record high in November, as imported supply was cheaper than domestic coal
🏭 China’s aluminum exports surged 37% YoY in November (the volume has only been surpassed once before, in May 2022), ahead of China's 13% export rebates cancellation from December
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Signet has reported a 0.7% YoY drop in same-store sales in 3Q24 (August-October), decelerating from the -3.4% YoY in 2Q24. Despite the YoY decline, we note that sequential same store sales improved for the 6th consecutive quarter. According to the retailer’s press release, same store sales in North America weakened 0.8% YoY, while proceeds from the international segment improved 1.6% YoY
In our view, the consistent recovery trends in the world's key US downstream market (~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade) could accelerate the ongoing destocking, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
💍Signet has reported a 0.7% YoY drop in same-store sales in 3Q24 (August-October), decelerating from the -3.4% YoY in 2Q24. Despite the YoY decline, we note that sequential same store sales improved for the 6th consecutive quarter. According to the retailer’s press release, same store sales in North America weakened 0.8% YoY, while proceeds from the international segment improved 1.6% YoY
In our view, the consistent recovery trends in the world's key US downstream market (~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade) could accelerate the ongoing destocking, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany dropped 4% YoY in November, following the 3% YoY slide in October, and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-15% vs. November 2019). In Germany and Spain, car sales were 18% and 11% below their 2019 levels, respectively, while registrations in France were 23% weaker. As for Italy, sales were 18% below the 2019 level, while UK sales were down 2%
Given that these five countries represented >70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2023, the region’s car sales likely declined YoY last month, remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany dropped 4% YoY in November, following the 3% YoY slide in October, and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-15% vs. November 2019). In Germany and Spain, car sales were 18% and 11% below their 2019 levels, respectively, while registrations in France were 23% weaker. As for Italy, sales were 18% below the 2019 level, while UK sales were down 2%
Given that these five countries represented >70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2023, the region’s car sales likely declined YoY last month, remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (Part 2)
⚒Nornickel now expects a greater nickel market surplus, of 150kt, in 2024-25. The company also sees the Pd/Pt markets as balanced in 2024-25
• The Ni market surplus is to increase in 2024-25 (previous estimate: 100kt), driven by lower Chinese stainless steel production and batteries falling short of expectations due to weak non-Chinese NEV sales and a higher LFP share
• The miner now sees the Pd market balanced in 2024-25 (previous forecast: deficits of 0.9mnoz in 2024 and of 0.3mnoz in 2025). The new forecast is based on stronger output from Russian operations and revised automotive demand in China, Japan and the US. Nornickel reiterated its estimate for a balanced Pt market in 2024. For 2025, the forecast is for a deficit of 0.2mnoz due to less refined production in SA
• Although the miner expects the Cu market to be broadly balanced in 2024-26, this looks conservative to us, given surging grid investments
#nickel #PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
⚒Nornickel now expects a greater nickel market surplus, of 150kt, in 2024-25. The company also sees the Pd/Pt markets as balanced in 2024-25
• The Ni market surplus is to increase in 2024-25 (previous estimate: 100kt), driven by lower Chinese stainless steel production and batteries falling short of expectations due to weak non-Chinese NEV sales and a higher LFP share
• The miner now sees the Pd market balanced in 2024-25 (previous forecast: deficits of 0.9mnoz in 2024 and of 0.3mnoz in 2025). The new forecast is based on stronger output from Russian operations and revised automotive demand in China, Japan and the US. Nornickel reiterated its estimate for a balanced Pt market in 2024. For 2025, the forecast is for a deficit of 0.2mnoz due to less refined production in SA
• Although the miner expects the Cu market to be broadly balanced in 2024-26, this looks conservative to us, given surging grid investments
#nickel #PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output grew 3% YoY in October, after the 7% YoY gain in September, according to official statistics. Meanwhile, gold production shrank 3% YoY, after the 4% YoY decline in September. In our view, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, and the increase in EU import duties on Chinese BEVs (from 10% up to 45%), as well as the continuous global Pd/Pt market deficit, might trigger a recovery in PGM prices in 2025
Moreover, according to Reuters, the new US administration is planning to cancel the USD 7,500 tax credit for EV purchases as part of the tax reform legislation. This move, if it materialised, would negatively affect local BEV sales (similar to Germany's case), which is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals, we believe
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output grew 3% YoY in October, after the 7% YoY gain in September, according to official statistics. Meanwhile, gold production shrank 3% YoY, after the 4% YoY decline in September. In our view, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, and the increase in EU import duties on Chinese BEVs (from 10% up to 45%), as well as the continuous global Pd/Pt market deficit, might trigger a recovery in PGM prices in 2025
Moreover, according to Reuters, the new US administration is planning to cancel the USD 7,500 tax credit for EV purchases as part of the tax reform legislation. This move, if it materialised, would negatively affect local BEV sales (similar to Germany's case), which is a favourable factor for PGM market fundamentals, we believe
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🇨🇳Total car sales in China grew 12% YoY in November (vs. +7% YoY in October)
📌China’s new ICE car sales dropped 7% YoY in November, after the 14% YoY fall in October. Although the growing appetite for EVs in China is affecting PGM consumption, sales of catalyst-containing cars (ICE + PHEV) rose 6% YoY in November. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 47% YoY in November, vs. +50% YoY in October. Specifically, BEV (60% of total EV registrations vs. 68% a year ago) sales grew 29%, while PHEVs added 86% YoY. Given the gradual shift to hybrids in China (which contain catalysts), this might add some support to the PGM market fundamentals in the medium term
In 1H24, China accounted for ~58% of global EV sales
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇨🇳Total car sales in China grew 12% YoY in November (vs. +7% YoY in October)
📌China’s new ICE car sales dropped 7% YoY in November, after the 14% YoY fall in October. Although the growing appetite for EVs in China is affecting PGM consumption, sales of catalyst-containing cars (ICE + PHEV) rose 6% YoY in November. We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 47% YoY in November, vs. +50% YoY in October. Specifically, BEV (60% of total EV registrations vs. 68% a year ago) sales grew 29%, while PHEVs added 86% YoY. Given the gradual shift to hybrids in China (which contain catalysts), this might add some support to the PGM market fundamentals in the medium term
In 1H24, China accounted for ~58% of global EV sales
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for November (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output grew 3% YoY in November, in line with October's dynamics. Meanwhile, on an 11mo24 basis, the production remained 3% lower YoY (per NBS data), amid soft domestic demand and low steel margins. According to the Mysteel agency, only ~50% of China's steel mills were operating at a profit by the end-November
🏢China's property sales grew 3% YoY in November (vs. flat YoY in October), but were still 46% below the 2021 level. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 27% YoY, being 62% lower than 2021. Personal mortgage loans were flat YoY in November, while property completions fell 39% YoY (vs. a 20% YoY drop in the previous month). Although the recent economic stimulus might bolster the slowly picking up Chinese property sector, more actions are required for a full-scale rebound in construction activity, we believe
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output grew 3% YoY in November, in line with October's dynamics. Meanwhile, on an 11mo24 basis, the production remained 3% lower YoY (per NBS data), amid soft domestic demand and low steel margins. According to the Mysteel agency, only ~50% of China's steel mills were operating at a profit by the end-November
🏢China's property sales grew 3% YoY in November (vs. flat YoY in October), but were still 46% below the 2021 level. Meanwhile, floor space starts declined a further 27% YoY, being 62% lower than 2021. Personal mortgage loans were flat YoY in November, while property completions fell 39% YoY (vs. a 20% YoY drop in the previous month). Although the recent economic stimulus might bolster the slowly picking up Chinese property sector, more actions are required for a full-scale rebound in construction activity, we believe
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports were up 96% YoY in November, mainly due to the low base effect (-19% MoM), reversing from the 35% YoY drop in October. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports fell 27% YoY (vs. +13% YoY a month ago). Synthetic rough diamond net imports fell 25% YoY, in line with October. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 8%
To recap, GJEPC has recently noted the looming recovery in the diamond industry, driven by significant reductions in polished inventories across markets. We continue to believe that in late-2024, polishers will further unwind their inventories, paving the way for massive restocking in 1Q25
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports were up 96% YoY in November, mainly due to the low base effect (-19% MoM), reversing from the 35% YoY drop in October. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports fell 27% YoY (vs. +13% YoY a month ago). Synthetic rough diamond net imports fell 25% YoY, in line with October. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 8%
To recap, GJEPC has recently noted the looming recovery in the diamond industry, driven by significant reductions in polished inventories across markets. We continue to believe that in late-2024, polishers will further unwind their inventories, paving the way for massive restocking in 1Q25
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏗China’s excavator sales grew 18% YoY in November (domestic + export), after the 15% YoY increase in October, according to CCMA data. The figure also outpaced the CME estimates (+10% YoY). Domestic sales were up 21% YoY (but were still down 36% from November 2021), which underpins the statement from China’s Housing Minister Ni Hong that the local real estate sector has started to bottom out gradually (property sales recovered 3% YoY in November)
Despite some positive effect from the recent economic stimulus in China, more actions are required in 2025 for a full-scale rebound in construction activity, we believe
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s excavator sales grew 18% YoY in November (domestic + export), after the 15% YoY increase in October, according to CCMA data. The figure also outpaced the CME estimates (+10% YoY). Domestic sales were up 21% YoY (but were still down 36% from November 2021), which underpins the statement from China’s Housing Minister Ni Hong that the local real estate sector has started to bottom out gradually (property sales recovered 3% YoY in November)
Despite some positive effect from the recent economic stimulus in China, more actions are required in 2025 for a full-scale rebound in construction activity, we believe
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇮🇳 India’s gold imports nearly tripled YoY to a record 170 tons in November, mainly due to high festive and wedding demand, according to data from the commerce ministry. Specifically, Indian imports in November accounted for ~45% of global physical gold demand in 2023 (in annualised terms)
The news is supportive for the global sentiment on gold and underpins our bullish view on the precious metal
Historically, India is one of the world’s largest gold buying countries (~23% of global consumer gold demand in 2023)
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🇮🇳 India’s gold imports nearly tripled YoY to a record 170 tons in November, mainly due to high festive and wedding demand, according to data from the commerce ministry. Specifically, Indian imports in November accounted for ~45% of global physical gold demand in 2023 (in annualised terms)
The news is supportive for the global sentiment on gold and underpins our bullish view on the precious metal
Historically, India is one of the world’s largest gold buying countries (~23% of global consumer gold demand in 2023)
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-December was reported at 2.02mnt, down 3.2% vs. the previous ten days, and up 4.8% YoY. Meanwhile, on the YTD basis (through 10 December), output remained down 1.8% YoY, per the CISA data. Local steel inventories grew 7.8% over the period (+0.5% YoY)
We maintain our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the slowly picking up Chinese property sector, but more actions are required in 2025 for a full-scale recovery in construction activity, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-December was reported at 2.02mnt, down 3.2% vs. the previous ten days, and up 4.8% YoY. Meanwhile, on the YTD basis (through 10 December), output remained down 1.8% YoY, per the CISA data. Local steel inventories grew 7.8% over the period (+0.5% YoY)
We maintain our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the slowly picking up Chinese property sector, but more actions are required in 2025 for a full-scale recovery in construction activity, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales declined 35% YoY in November, picking up the pace from the 12% YoY decrease in October, per NBS data. According to Rapaport, engagement ring demand somewhat bolstered the local diamond market in November, but business was slower than in previous years
💎Burgundy has noted upbeat demand for mid- and large-sized rough diamonds in its late-2024 sales, per a company press release. According to the miner’s CEO, Kim Truter, the average realised price in December was USD 106/ct (vs. USD 103/ct and USD 83/ct in 2Q24-3Q24, respectively), which bodes well for a recovering diamond market
We reiterate our view that the solid sales dynamics in the US, the world's key downstream market (with ~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade), could accelerate the ongoing industry destocking, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales declined 35% YoY in November, picking up the pace from the 12% YoY decrease in October, per NBS data. According to Rapaport, engagement ring demand somewhat bolstered the local diamond market in November, but business was slower than in previous years
💎Burgundy has noted upbeat demand for mid- and large-sized rough diamonds in its late-2024 sales, per a company press release. According to the miner’s CEO, Kim Truter, the average realised price in December was USD 106/ct (vs. USD 103/ct and USD 83/ct in 2Q24-3Q24, respectively), which bodes well for a recovering diamond market
We reiterate our view that the solid sales dynamics in the US, the world's key downstream market (with ~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade), could accelerate the ongoing industry destocking, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
⛏ Indonesia is considering deep cuts in its 2025 nickel mining quotas to boost prices, Bloomberg reports, citing sources from the country’s Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. Per discussions within the government, ore mining quotas in Indonesia (~55% of global mined nickel supply in 2023) might be lowered to 150mnt in 2025, a significant drop from the 272mnt quota this year; however, we note that the final size of quota reductions, if they materialise at all, may be lower
In our view, such a step would help to stabilise the oversupplied (since 2022) global Ni market and create additional upside risks for the Ni price, which continues to trade below what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level (USD ~20,000/t for 2025F)
#Nickel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
⛏ Indonesia is considering deep cuts in its 2025 nickel mining quotas to boost prices, Bloomberg reports, citing sources from the country’s Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. Per discussions within the government, ore mining quotas in Indonesia (~55% of global mined nickel supply in 2023) might be lowered to 150mnt in 2025, a significant drop from the 272mnt quota this year; however, we note that the final size of quota reductions, if they materialise at all, may be lower
In our view, such a step would help to stabilise the oversupplied (since 2022) global Ni market and create additional upside risks for the Ni price, which continues to trade below what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level (USD ~20,000/t for 2025F)
#Nickel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations slid 2% YoY in November, after the flat YoY dynamics in October. The figure came in slightly ahead of our estimates (-4% YoY), but remained 13% below the pre-COVID 2019 level
We maintain our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the continuous global Pd/Pt market deficit, might support PGM prices in 2025
In 2023, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations slid 2% YoY in November, after the flat YoY dynamics in October. The figure came in slightly ahead of our estimates (-4% YoY), but remained 13% below the pre-COVID 2019 level
We maintain our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the continuous global Pd/Pt market deficit, might support PGM prices in 2025
In 2023, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites
💎LFL rough prices at the Petra Diamonds December auction dropped 7% vs. October tender amid a continued market weakness, while the 5.0-10.8ct stones saw 3% LFL price gain, the company has reported. The miner has also revised lower its average realized price assumptions for FY25 (ending Jun-25) by ~10%
According to Petra CEO Richard Duffy, management is encouraged by the majors’ supply discipline measures and remains committed to achieving net cash generation in FY25. Specifically, Petra is to cut jobs within its South African operation's support teams to reduce costs, Rapaport reports
Although Petra revealed soft realised LFL price dynamics in late-2024, the GJEPC noted a looming recovery in the diamond industry amid significant reductions in polished inventories. We believe that in 4Q24 polishers likely unwound most of their inventories, paving the way for restocking in 1Q25
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎LFL rough prices at the Petra Diamonds December auction dropped 7% vs. October tender amid a continued market weakness, while the 5.0-10.8ct stones saw 3% LFL price gain, the company has reported. The miner has also revised lower its average realized price assumptions for FY25 (ending Jun-25) by ~10%
According to Petra CEO Richard Duffy, management is encouraged by the majors’ supply discipline measures and remains committed to achieving net cash generation in FY25. Specifically, Petra is to cut jobs within its South African operation's support teams to reduce costs, Rapaport reports
Although Petra revealed soft realised LFL price dynamics in late-2024, the GJEPC noted a looming recovery in the diamond industry amid significant reductions in polished inventories. We believe that in 4Q24 polishers likely unwound most of their inventories, paving the way for restocking in 1Q25
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds