Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production stood broadly flat YoY in September, vs. the +2.2% YoY in August, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Meanwhile, on the 9mo24 basis, output was up 1.8% YoY, while the ICSG notes solid global refined Cu consumption dynamics (+2.5% YoY in 9mo24), mainly driven by China (+3.0% YoY)
We maintain our positive view on copper, amid growing demand for renewables globally and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🥉Global mined copper production stood broadly flat YoY in September, vs. the +2.2% YoY in August, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Meanwhile, on the 9mo24 basis, output was up 1.8% YoY, while the ICSG notes solid global refined Cu consumption dynamics (+2.5% YoY in 9mo24), mainly driven by China (+3.0% YoY)
We maintain our positive view on copper, amid growing demand for renewables globally and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳Investment in China’s grid infrastructure rose 17% YoY in October, after the 12% YoY growth in September, according to the NBS data. On the 10mo24 basis, the figure grew 21% YoY, and was 28% above the 10mo20-23 average. On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Cu and Al consumption in China, so rising investments are fundamentally supportive for the demand for these base metals
We recap that China is to invest ~USD 800bn (per Rystard Energy estimates) in the local grid in 2025-30 (vs. USD ~450bn spent in 2018-23), amid growing installations of renewable energy
🥈Solar panel installations in China surged 48% YoY in October, according to the NEA data. On the 10mo24 basis, the figure grew 30% YoY. Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we reiterate our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
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🇨🇳Investment in China’s grid infrastructure rose 17% YoY in October, after the 12% YoY growth in September, according to the NBS data. On the 10mo24 basis, the figure grew 21% YoY, and was 28% above the 10mo20-23 average. On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Cu and Al consumption in China, so rising investments are fundamentally supportive for the demand for these base metals
We recap that China is to invest ~USD 800bn (per Rystard Energy estimates) in the local grid in 2025-30 (vs. USD ~450bn spent in 2018-23), amid growing installations of renewable energy
🥈Solar panel installations in China surged 48% YoY in October, according to the NEA data. On the 10mo24 basis, the figure grew 30% YoY. Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we reiterate our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
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Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Russia’s gold output jumped 24.8% YoY in October (mainly due to the low base effect from October 2023), reversing the 4.3% YoY decline in September, per Rosstat data. On a 10mo24 basis, the output was up 5.6% YoY. We recap that Russia accounted for ~9% of the world's mined gold supply in 2023
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24 (~USD 2,400/oz), we see more upside risks in the precious metal’s price given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
📈Russia’s gold output jumped 24.8% YoY in October (mainly due to the low base effect from October 2023), reversing the 4.3% YoY decline in September, per Rosstat data. On a 10mo24 basis, the output was up 5.6% YoY. We recap that Russia accounted for ~9% of the world's mined gold supply in 2023
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24 (~USD 2,400/oz), we see more upside risks in the precious metal’s price given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites
💎 India — Jewellery segment revenues at Titan were up 15% YoY in 3Q24, following the 10% YoY growth in 2Q24. According to the retailer, the reduction in the local custom duty (from 15% to 6% in mid-2024) supported consumer interest as gold prices temporarily softened. Titan also noted healthy growth in the number of buyers in 3Q24
We reiterate our view that the solid sales dynamics in the US (~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade) and India (~10%) could accelerate the ongoing destocking in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎 India — Jewellery segment revenues at Titan were up 15% YoY in 3Q24, following the 10% YoY growth in 2Q24. According to the retailer, the reduction in the local custom duty (from 15% to 6% in mid-2024) supported consumer interest as gold prices temporarily softened. Titan also noted healthy growth in the number of buyers in 3Q24
We reiterate our view that the solid sales dynamics in the US (~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade) and India (~10%) could accelerate the ongoing destocking in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales grew 13% YoY in November (domestic + export), in line with the +15% YoY in October, according to the CME estimates. The actual figure, however, is set to remain 17% below the 2021 level. Specifically, domestic excavator sales are likely to grow 15% YoY this month (but still be 39% less than in November 2021), which underpins the statement from China’s Housing Minister that the local property sector is gradually bottoming out
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales grew 13% YoY in November (domestic + export), in line with the +15% YoY in October, according to the CME estimates. The actual figure, however, is set to remain 17% below the 2021 level. Specifically, domestic excavator sales are likely to grow 15% YoY this month (but still be 39% less than in November 2021), which underpins the statement from China’s Housing Minister that the local property sector is gradually bottoming out
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎De Beers has cut rough prices 10-15% across all categories, Bloomberg reports, citing its sources. This was the largest cut since January (also -10%), and the first cut since May (4-6% for small units). On our numbers, the total price cut this year is >20%. Previously, the company followed a price-over-volume approach. In our view, the lack of liquidity amid the slump in PGM prices could have persuaded Anglo American to take such a step. This was underpinned by the reduction in purchasing flexibility for sightholders
To recap, the GJEPC noted a looming recovery amid significant reductions in polished inventories and price increases in certain categories. Moreover, junior miners (30% of global supply) making negative FCF, as well as the ongoing supply reduction, is a strong near-bottom market indicator
We continue to believe that in 4Q24-1Q25, polishers will unwind their inventories, paving the way for restocking in 2025
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎De Beers has cut rough prices 10-15% across all categories, Bloomberg reports, citing its sources. This was the largest cut since January (also -10%), and the first cut since May (4-6% for small units). On our numbers, the total price cut this year is >20%. Previously, the company followed a price-over-volume approach. In our view, the lack of liquidity amid the slump in PGM prices could have persuaded Anglo American to take such a step. This was underpinned by the reduction in purchasing flexibility for sightholders
To recap, the GJEPC noted a looming recovery amid significant reductions in polished inventories and price increases in certain categories. Moreover, junior miners (30% of global supply) making negative FCF, as well as the ongoing supply reduction, is a strong near-bottom market indicator
We continue to believe that in 4Q24-1Q25, polishers will unwind their inventories, paving the way for restocking in 2025
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in November. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 45.2 (vs. 45.9 in October), while the US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4, surpassing market expectations of 47.5
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China was 50.3 (vs. 50.1 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5, ahead of the forecasts of 50.5
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 56.5 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️In October, EU/US PMIs remained below 50.0, underlining the ongoing slowdown in their manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, China’s new economic stimulus might add some support to local demand for industrial metals in 2025 (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper), we believe
#PMIs
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🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in November. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 45.2 (vs. 45.9 in October), while the US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4, surpassing market expectations of 47.5
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China was 50.3 (vs. 50.1 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5, ahead of the forecasts of 50.5
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 56.5 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️In October, EU/US PMIs remained below 50.0, underlining the ongoing slowdown in their manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, China’s new economic stimulus might add some support to local demand for industrial metals in 2025 (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper), we believe
#PMIs
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Morning Bites
💎US jewellery sales jumped 9% YoY in October, vs. the revised spike of 10% YoY in September, IDEX reports. According to IDEX, declining interest rates and slowing inflation, coupled with low layoff rates and wage growth, are driving the positive sales momentum
We reiterate our view that the solid downstream demand in the US (~53% of global gem-set jewellery trade) is likely to accelerate the ongoing destocking in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎US jewellery sales jumped 9% YoY in October, vs. the revised spike of 10% YoY in September, IDEX reports. According to IDEX, declining interest rates and slowing inflation, coupled with low layoff rates and wage growth, are driving the positive sales momentum
We reiterate our view that the solid downstream demand in the US (~53% of global gem-set jewellery trade) is likely to accelerate the ongoing destocking in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏦 Global central banks purchased net 60t of gold in October, vs. the +53t in September, the World Gold Council (WGC) reports. The major contributors were India (+27t) and Turkey (+17t). No significant sales volumes were recorded. Although the PBoC has suspended gold purchases, the WGC estimates that the official statistics for 9mo24 reflect only 33% of total demand from government institutions
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24 (~USD 2,400/oz), we think there are more upside risks in the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as the ongoing geopolitical tensions
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏦 Global central banks purchased net 60t of gold in October, vs. the +53t in September, the World Gold Council (WGC) reports. The major contributors were India (+27t) and Turkey (+17t). No significant sales volumes were recorded. Although the PBoC has suspended gold purchases, the WGC estimates that the official statistics for 9mo24 reflect only 33% of total demand from government institutions
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24 (~USD 2,400/oz), we think there are more upside risks in the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as the ongoing geopolitical tensions
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales shrank 11% YoY in October, decelerating from the 18% YoY decline seen in September, per the government data. According to Rapaport, demand is expected to pick up in November ahead of Christmas and the Chinese New Year
Despite slack demand in HK, sentiment remains strong in the key US market (~53% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade), which might support the depressed diamond sector, were this trend to persist
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales shrank 11% YoY in October, decelerating from the 18% YoY decline seen in September, per the government data. According to Rapaport, demand is expected to pick up in November ahead of Christmas and the Chinese New Year
Despite slack demand in HK, sentiment remains strong in the key US market (~53% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade), which might support the depressed diamond sector, were this trend to persist
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in late-November was reported at 2.09mnt, +0.5% vs. the previous ten days, and up 3.7% YoY. On the 11mo24 basis, output was still down 2.0% YoY, according to the CISA data. Local steel inventories fell 15.4% over the period (but were up 1.4% YoY)
We reiterate our view that the new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional stimulus to be discussed at the economic forum on 11-12 December) might bolster local construction activity in 2025
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in late-November was reported at 2.09mnt, +0.5% vs. the previous ten days, and up 3.7% YoY. On the 11mo24 basis, output was still down 2.0% YoY, according to the CISA data. Local steel inventories fell 15.4% over the period (but were up 1.4% YoY)
We reiterate our view that the new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional stimulus to be discussed at the economic forum on 11-12 December) might bolster local construction activity in 2025
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
📉 Gold-backed ETFs sold net 29t of gold in November, marking the first net sale since April, vs. +43t in October. According to the World Gold Council, European funds led the entire global outflows, with net sales of 26t
Although ETFs’ sales could have been the main factor pressuring gold prices in November, inflows might pick up in the coming months given the recently started monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China), we believe. Global funds have accumulated net 135t since May (~5% of physical gold demand in 2023 in annualised terms)
#ETF #gold
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📉 Gold-backed ETFs sold net 29t of gold in November, marking the first net sale since April, vs. +43t in October. According to the World Gold Council, European funds led the entire global outflows, with net sales of 26t
Although ETFs’ sales could have been the main factor pressuring gold prices in November, inflows might pick up in the coming months given the recently started monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China), we believe. Global funds have accumulated net 135t since May (~5% of physical gold demand in 2023 in annualised terms)
#ETF #gold
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Morning Bites
🏦 The PBoC resumed official gold purchases in November. It bought ~5t, marking the first increase in reserves since April, Bloomberg reports. Although PBoC did not report any purchases in May-October, we note that the official statistics for 9mo24 reflect only 33% of total demand from government institutions (per WGC estimates)
We maintain our view that gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24 (~USD 2,400/oz), but that there are more upside risks in the precious metal’s price, given the steady demand from global central banks, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China), and global geopolitical unrest
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏦 The PBoC resumed official gold purchases in November. It bought ~5t, marking the first increase in reserves since April, Bloomberg reports. Although PBoC did not report any purchases in May-October, we note that the official statistics for 9mo24 reflect only 33% of total demand from government institutions (per WGC estimates)
We maintain our view that gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24 (~USD 2,400/oz), but that there are more upside risks in the precious metal’s price, given the steady demand from global central banks, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China), and global geopolitical unrest
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for November (see table above)
#statistics #China
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#statistics #China
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Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s finished steel net exports rose 19% YoY in November, after the +46% YoY surge in October. To recap, soft domestic demand led to elevated exports in 11mo24, which might also remain high in late-2024, amid China's concerns about global trade relations in 2025. We reiterate our view that the new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional stimulus to be discussed at the economic forum on 11-12 December) might bolster local construction activity in 2025
🪨China’s coal imports jumped 26% YoY in November, after the 28% YoY rise in October. According to Reuters, China's coal imports surged to a record high in November, as imported supply was cheaper than domestic coal
🏭 China’s aluminum exports surged 37% YoY in November (the volume has only been surpassed once before, in May 2022), ahead of China's 13% export rebates cancellation from December
#coal #steel
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🔗China’s finished steel net exports rose 19% YoY in November, after the +46% YoY surge in October. To recap, soft domestic demand led to elevated exports in 11mo24, which might also remain high in late-2024, amid China's concerns about global trade relations in 2025. We reiterate our view that the new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional stimulus to be discussed at the economic forum on 11-12 December) might bolster local construction activity in 2025
🪨China’s coal imports jumped 26% YoY in November, after the 28% YoY rise in October. According to Reuters, China's coal imports surged to a record high in November, as imported supply was cheaper than domestic coal
🏭 China’s aluminum exports surged 37% YoY in November (the volume has only been surpassed once before, in May 2022), ahead of China's 13% export rebates cancellation from December
#coal #steel
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Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Signet has reported a 0.7% YoY drop in same-store sales in 3Q24 (August-October), decelerating from the -3.4% YoY in 2Q24. Despite the YoY decline, we note that sequential same store sales improved for the 6th consecutive quarter. According to the retailer’s press release, same store sales in North America weakened 0.8% YoY, while proceeds from the international segment improved 1.6% YoY
In our view, the consistent recovery trends in the world's key US downstream market (~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade) could accelerate the ongoing destocking, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
💍Signet has reported a 0.7% YoY drop in same-store sales in 3Q24 (August-October), decelerating from the -3.4% YoY in 2Q24. Despite the YoY decline, we note that sequential same store sales improved for the 6th consecutive quarter. According to the retailer’s press release, same store sales in North America weakened 0.8% YoY, while proceeds from the international segment improved 1.6% YoY
In our view, the consistent recovery trends in the world's key US downstream market (~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade) could accelerate the ongoing destocking, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany dropped 4% YoY in November, following the 3% YoY slide in October, and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-15% vs. November 2019). In Germany and Spain, car sales were 18% and 11% below their 2019 levels, respectively, while registrations in France were 23% weaker. As for Italy, sales were 18% below the 2019 level, while UK sales were down 2%
Given that these five countries represented >70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2023, the region’s car sales likely declined YoY last month, remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany dropped 4% YoY in November, following the 3% YoY slide in October, and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-15% vs. November 2019). In Germany and Spain, car sales were 18% and 11% below their 2019 levels, respectively, while registrations in France were 23% weaker. As for Italy, sales were 18% below the 2019 level, while UK sales were down 2%
Given that these five countries represented >70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2023, the region’s car sales likely declined YoY last month, remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (Part 2)
⚒Nornickel now expects a greater nickel market surplus, of 150kt, in 2024-25. The company also sees the Pd/Pt markets as balanced in 2024-25
• The Ni market surplus is to increase in 2024-25 (previous estimate: 100kt), driven by lower Chinese stainless steel production and batteries falling short of expectations due to weak non-Chinese NEV sales and a higher LFP share
• The miner now sees the Pd market balanced in 2024-25 (previous forecast: deficits of 0.9mnoz in 2024 and of 0.3mnoz in 2025). The new forecast is based on stronger output from Russian operations and revised automotive demand in China, Japan and the US. Nornickel reiterated its estimate for a balanced Pt market in 2024. For 2025, the forecast is for a deficit of 0.2mnoz due to less refined production in SA
• Although the miner expects the Cu market to be broadly balanced in 2024-26, this looks conservative to us, given surging grid investments
#nickel #PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
⚒Nornickel now expects a greater nickel market surplus, of 150kt, in 2024-25. The company also sees the Pd/Pt markets as balanced in 2024-25
• The Ni market surplus is to increase in 2024-25 (previous estimate: 100kt), driven by lower Chinese stainless steel production and batteries falling short of expectations due to weak non-Chinese NEV sales and a higher LFP share
• The miner now sees the Pd market balanced in 2024-25 (previous forecast: deficits of 0.9mnoz in 2024 and of 0.3mnoz in 2025). The new forecast is based on stronger output from Russian operations and revised automotive demand in China, Japan and the US. Nornickel reiterated its estimate for a balanced Pt market in 2024. For 2025, the forecast is for a deficit of 0.2mnoz due to less refined production in SA
• Although the miner expects the Cu market to be broadly balanced in 2024-26, this looks conservative to us, given surging grid investments
#nickel #PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports