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Global Metals&Mining Research from Glush&Team. No investment advice, just numbers & charts!
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Morning Bites

📈China’s output of aluminium products grew 8% YoY to 5.9mnt in October, in line with September's dynamics. Given the strong demand for Al in China (~60% of global consumption), bolstered by the rapid expansion of the local new energy sector, we maintain our positive view on the metal. Although China's recent cancellation of its export tax rebate pushed LME Al price to USD 2,700/t last Friday (+7% vs. Thursday), we see even more upside in the metal, with the fundamentally reasonable price for 2025 at USD 3,000/t, on our numbers

🥉China's output of copper products was flat YoY in October, at 2.0mnt, in line with September. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal's price. China represents ~55% of global Cu demand

#aluminium #copper 
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites

🏦 China’s aggregate financing declined 24% YoY in October to CNY 1.40tn, accelerating from the 9% YoY drop in September (it was also -13% YoY on the 10mo24 basis). Traditional bank loans dropped 32% YoY, missing the consensus estimates by 29%. According to Trading Economics, the previous month marked the lowest magnitude of new yuan loans extended since October 2009, reflecting soft demand for new investment projects in China

In our view, the positive effect from the new economic support measures recently announced by Beijing has yet to materialise, and more actions are still required to trigger a full-scale recovery in construction activity in 2025

China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively

#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites

🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations stood flat YoY in October, after the 4% YoY decrease in September. The dynamics were slightly above our estimates, while the figure remained 14% below the pre-COVID, 2019 level

We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, increase in EU import duties (from 10% up to 45%) on Chinese BEVs (encouraging production of catalyst-containing cars), as well as the continuous global Pd/Pt market deficit, might support PGM prices in 2025.

In 2023, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively.

#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗Global crude steel output stood flat YoY at 151mnt in October
, after the 5% YoY drop in September, according to the World Steel Association data. China’s production (54% of global crude steel supply) rose 3% YoY, reversing from the 6% YoY drop in September, while ex-China steel output slipped 2% YoY. The WSA numbers show that Russian and US production dropped 15% YoY and 2% YoY, respectively, last month, while EU supply grew 6% YoY. Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) also grew 2% YoY in October, and was up 6% YoY on the 10mo24 basis

We reiterate our view that the new economic support measures announced by Beijing might bolster the local property sector in 2025, but more actions are required for a full-scale recovery in construction activity. In particular, CISA has recently warned mills to maintain production discipline, as local steel market conditions have not materially improved yet

#steel 
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)

🏭Global primary aluminium output grew 1.3% YoY in October, in line with September's dynamics, according to International Aluminium Institute data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) was up 1.8% YoY last month. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) is likely to add further support to Al in 2025, which continues to trade below what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level (USD 3,000/t, on our numbers)

We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (vs. ~43.2mnt annualised in 10mo24)

#aluminium   
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in mid-November was reported at 2.08mnt, down 0.8% vs. the previous ten days but up 5.6% YoY. The YTD output (through 20 November) was down 2.1% YoY. Local steel inventories jumped 13.8% over the period (+1.4% YoY)

In our view, the positive effect from the new economic support measures recently announced by Beijing has yet to materialise, and more actions are still required to trigger a full-scale recovery in local construction activity in 2025

China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)

🏭 Rio Tinto has lifted restrictions on third party alumina exports from its Gladstone refineries in Australia, S&P Global reports. As Rio had previously announced, operations at the facility returned to normal capacity in 2H24 after an Queensland gas pipeline incident in May 2024

Although volumes from Gladstone represented <1% of global alumina supply in 2023, the resumption of shipments might at least partly help normalise the abnormally high alumina prices

#aluminium  
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
Morning Bites

🥉Global mined copper production stood broadly flat YoY in September, vs. the +2.2% YoY in August, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Meanwhile, on the 9mo24 basis, output was up 1.8% YoY, while the ICSG notes solid global refined Cu consumption dynamics (+2.5% YoY in 9mo24), mainly driven by China (+3.0% YoY)

We maintain our positive view on copper, amid growing demand for renewables globally and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (which represents ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)

#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 1)

🇨🇳Investment in China’s grid infrastructure rose 17% YoY in October, after the 12% YoY growth in September, according to the NBS data. On the 10mo24 basis, the figure grew 21% YoY, and was 28% above the 10mo20-23 average. On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Cu and Al consumption in China, so rising investments are fundamentally supportive for the demand for these base metals

We recap that China is to invest ~USD 800bn (per Rystard Energy estimates) in the local grid in 2025-30 (vs. USD ~450bn spent in 2018-23), amid growing installations of renewable energy

🥈Solar panel installations in China surged 48% YoY in October, according to the NEA data. On the 10mo24 basis, the figure grew 30% YoY. Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we reiterate our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30

#silver #copper #aluminium  
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)

📈Russia’s gold output jumped 24.8% YoY in October (mainly due to the low base effect from October 2023), reversing the 4.3% YoY decline in September, per Rosstat data. On a 10mo24 basis, the output was up 5.6% YoY. We recap that Russia accounted for ~9% of the world's mined gold supply in 2023

Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24 (~USD 2,400/oz), we see more upside risks in the precious metal’s price given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions

#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites

💎 India — Jewellery segment revenues at Titan were up 15% YoY in 3Q24, following the 10% YoY growth in 2Q24. According to the retailer, the reduction in the local custom duty (from 15% to 6% in mid-2024) supported consumer interest as gold prices temporarily softened. Titan also noted healthy growth in the number of buyers in 3Q24

We reiterate our view that the solid sales dynamics in the US (~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade) and India (~10%) could accelerate the ongoing destocking in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market

#diamonds 
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites

🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales grew 13% YoY in November (domestic + export), in line with the +15% YoY in October, according to the CME estimates. The actual figure, however, is set to remain 17% below the 2021 level. Specifically, domestic excavator sales are likely to grow 15% YoY this month (but still be 39% less than in November 2021), which underpins the statement from China’s Housing Minister that the local property sector is gradually bottoming out

China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 1)

💎De Beers has cut rough prices 10-15% across all categories
, Bloomberg reports, citing its sources. This was the largest cut since January (also -10%), and the first cut since May (4-6% for small units). On our numbers, the total price cut this year is >20%. Previously, the company followed a price-over-volume approach. In our view, the lack of liquidity amid the slump in PGM prices could have persuaded Anglo American to take such a step. This was underpinned by the reduction in purchasing flexibility for sightholders

To recap, the GJEPC noted a looming recovery amid significant reductions in polished inventories and price increases in certain categories. Moreover, junior miners (30% of global supply) making negative FCF, as well as the ongoing supply reduction, is a strong near-bottom market indicator

We continue to believe that in 4Q24-1Q25, polishers will unwind their inventories, paving the way for restocking in 2025

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)

🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in November. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 45.2 (vs. 45.9 in October), while the US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4, surpassing market expectations of 47.5

🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China was 50.3 (vs. 50.1 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5, ahead of the forecasts of 50.5

🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 56.5 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies

❗️In October, EU/US PMIs remained below 50.0, underlining the ongoing slowdown in their manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, China’s new economic stimulus might add some support to local demand for industrial metals in 2025 (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper), we believe

#PMIs 
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Morning Bites

💎US jewellery sales jumped 9% YoY in October, vs. the revised spike of 10% YoY in September, IDEX reports. According to IDEX, declining interest rates and slowing inflation, coupled with low layoff rates and wage growth, are driving the positive sales momentum

We reiterate our view that the solid downstream demand in the US (~53% of global gem-set jewellery trade) is likely to accelerate the ongoing destocking in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market, we believe

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)

🏦 Global central banks purchased net 60t of gold in October, vs. the +53t in September, the World Gold Council (WGC) reports. The major contributors were India (+27t) and Turkey (+17t). No significant sales volumes were recorded. Although the PBoC has suspended gold purchases, the WGC estimates that the official statistics for 9mo24 reflect only 33% of total demand from government institutions

Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24 (~USD 2,400/oz), we think there are more upside risks in the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as the ongoing geopolitical tensions

#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 2)

💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales shrank 11% YoY in October, decelerating from the 18% YoY decline seen in September, per the government data. According to Rapaport, demand is expected to pick up in November ahead of Christmas and the Chinese New Year

Despite slack demand in HK, sentiment remains strong in the key US market (~53% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade), which might support the depressed diamond sector, were this trend to persist

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in late-November was reported at 2.09mnt, +0.5% vs. the previous ten days, and up 3.7% YoY. On the 11mo24 basis, output was still down 2.0% YoY, according to the CISA data. Local steel inventories fell 15.4% over the period (but were up 1.4% YoY)

We reiterate our view that the new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional stimulus to be discussed at the economic forum on 11-12 December) might bolster local construction activity in 2025

China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)

📉 Gold-backed ETFs sold net 29t of gold in November, marking the first net sale since April, vs. +43t in October. According to the World Gold Council, European funds led the entire global outflows, with net sales of 26t

Although ETFs’ sales could have been the main factor pressuring gold prices in November, inflows might pick up in the coming months given the recently started monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China), we believe. Global funds have accumulated net 135t since May (~5% of physical gold demand in 2023 in annualised terms)

#ETF #gold 
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites

🏦 The PBoC resumed official gold purchases in November. It bought ~5t, marking the first increase in reserves since April, Bloomberg reports. Although PBoC did not report any purchases in May-October, we note that the official statistics for 9mo24 reflect only 33% of total demand from government institutions (per WGC estimates)

We maintain our view that gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24 (~USD 2,400/oz), but that there are more upside risks in the precious metal’s price, given the steady demand from global central banks, the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China), and global geopolitical unrest

#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold