Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Russia’s gold output slid 4.3% YoY in September, after the 0.9% YoY decline in August, per Rosstat data. On a 9mo24 basis, however, the output was up 3.4% YoY. Russia’s gold output accounted for ~9% of the world's mined supply in 2023
Although, at spot, gold is trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 2H24 (~USD 2,400/oz), we expect additional upside in the precious metal’s price due to strong demand from global central banks and gold inflows into ETFs amid the monetary policy easing cycle in the EU/US and China
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
📈Russia’s gold output slid 4.3% YoY in September, after the 0.9% YoY decline in August, per Rosstat data. On a 9mo24 basis, however, the output was up 3.4% YoY. Russia’s gold output accounted for ~9% of the world's mined supply in 2023
Although, at spot, gold is trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 2H24 (~USD 2,400/oz), we expect additional upside in the precious metal’s price due to strong demand from global central banks and gold inflows into ETFs amid the monetary policy easing cycle in the EU/US and China
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Vale 3Q24 results — neutral
📝Vale's 3Q24 revenues were broadly in line with our and market estimates. However, adjusted EBITDA was 4% below our estimates (and 2% below the consensus) amid slightly higher cost pressure than we had anticipated in the Pellets and Energy Transition Metals segments
💰Management said that Vale is on track to achieve its 2024 C1 cash cost guidance (ex-3rd party purchases) of USD 21.5-23.0/t (vs. USD 20.6/t seen in 3Q24)
⛏ Vale has revised upward its 2024 iron ore production guidance to 323-330mnt (from 310-320mnt), amid improvements in operational stability
📌On our numbers, Vale's 4Q24F EBITDA will be roughly flat QoQ at spot, as its current commodity basket price is almost in-line the 3Q24 avg
#VALE #Iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com/company/VALE_US/
📝Vale's 3Q24 revenues were broadly in line with our and market estimates. However, adjusted EBITDA was 4% below our estimates (and 2% below the consensus) amid slightly higher cost pressure than we had anticipated in the Pellets and Energy Transition Metals segments
💰Management said that Vale is on track to achieve its 2024 C1 cash cost guidance (ex-3rd party purchases) of USD 21.5-23.0/t (vs. USD 20.6/t seen in 3Q24)
⛏ Vale has revised upward its 2024 iron ore production guidance to 323-330mnt (from 310-320mnt), amid improvements in operational stability
📌On our numbers, Vale's 4Q24F EBITDA will be roughly flat QoQ at spot, as its current commodity basket price is almost in-line the 3Q24 avg
#VALE #Iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com/company/VALE_US/
Week ahead data releases in M&M
This week, some global M&M names are scheduled to report their 3Q24 financials. On our numbers, the consensus is rather bullish in its EBITDA forecasts for Peabody and Nexa
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
This week, some global M&M names are scheduled to report their 3Q24 financials. On our numbers, the consensus is rather bullish in its EBITDA forecasts for Peabody and Nexa
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites (part 1)
🥉Global mined copper production rose 2.6% YoY in August, in line with the dynamics seen in July, according to data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Meanwhile, on the 8mo24 basis, output was up 2.1% YoY, amid a production recovery at existing assets (e.g. in Chile, Indonesia and the US) and the ramp-up of new mining projects (particularly in the DR Congo). The ICSG also reported solid global refined Cu consumption (+2.5% YoY in 8mo24), mostly driven by China (+2.7% YoY)
We keep our bullish view on copper, amid the rapid shift to green energy globally and surging investments (+21% YoY in 9mo24) in China’s grid infrastructure (which accounts for ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🥉Global mined copper production rose 2.6% YoY in August, in line with the dynamics seen in July, according to data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Meanwhile, on the 8mo24 basis, output was up 2.1% YoY, amid a production recovery at existing assets (e.g. in Chile, Indonesia and the US) and the ramp-up of new mining projects (particularly in the DR Congo). The ICSG also reported solid global refined Cu consumption (+2.5% YoY in 8mo24), mostly driven by China (+2.7% YoY)
We keep our bullish view on copper, amid the rapid shift to green energy globally and surging investments (+21% YoY in 9mo24) in China’s grid infrastructure (which accounts for ~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales grew 10% YoY in October (domestic + export), in line with the +11% YoY in September, according to the CME estimates. The actual figure, however, is set to remain 16% below the 2021 level. Specifically, domestic excavator sales are likely to grow 18% YoY this month (but still be -37% vs. October 2021), which underpins the statement from China’s Housing Minister that the local property sector is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, the recently started monetary easing cycle in China (and the upcoming fiscal stimulus in November-December) could add some support to this recovery, we believe
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales grew 10% YoY in October (domestic + export), in line with the +11% YoY in September, according to the CME estimates. The actual figure, however, is set to remain 16% below the 2021 level. Specifically, domestic excavator sales are likely to grow 18% YoY this month (but still be -37% vs. October 2021), which underpins the statement from China’s Housing Minister that the local property sector is gradually bottoming out. Meanwhile, the recently started monetary easing cycle in China (and the upcoming fiscal stimulus in November-December) could add some support to this recovery, we believe
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 3)
🇨🇳 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure increased 12% YoY in September, vs. the +65% YoY in August (from the low base), according to National Bureau of Statistics data. On a 9mo24 basis, investment was up 21% YoY, and was also 30% above the 9mo20-23 average. In our view, the heightened level of grid investment is likely to add additional positive impetus to the sentiment toward industrial metals such as copper and aluminium, as the grid accounts for 10-15% of Cu and Al consumption in China, we estimate
We also recap that China is to invest ~USD 800bn (per Rystard Energy estimates) in the local grid in 2025-30 (vs. USD ~450bn spent in 2018-23), as Beijing aims to match the growing installations of renewable energy. Hence, we reiterate our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global clean energy transition in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇨🇳 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure increased 12% YoY in September, vs. the +65% YoY in August (from the low base), according to National Bureau of Statistics data. On a 9mo24 basis, investment was up 21% YoY, and was also 30% above the 9mo20-23 average. In our view, the heightened level of grid investment is likely to add additional positive impetus to the sentiment toward industrial metals such as copper and aluminium, as the grid accounts for 10-15% of Cu and Al consumption in China, we estimate
We also recap that China is to invest ~USD 800bn (per Rystard Energy estimates) in the local grid in 2025-30 (vs. USD ~450bn spent in 2018-23), as Beijing aims to match the growing installations of renewable energy. Hence, we reiterate our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global clean energy transition in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales grew 11% YoY in September, after the 18% YoY rise in August. However, according to Rapaport, Chinese diamond demand remained soft in September, as consumer preferences shifted to buying gold
We reiterate our view that the solid sales dynamics in the US, the world's key downstream market (~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade), could accelerate the ongoing destocking in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales grew 11% YoY in September, after the 18% YoY rise in August. However, according to Rapaport, Chinese diamond demand remained soft in September, as consumer preferences shifted to buying gold
We reiterate our view that the solid sales dynamics in the US, the world's key downstream market (~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade), could accelerate the ongoing destocking in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
📈China’s output of aluminium products jumped 8% YoY to 6.0mnt in September, slightly accelerating from the +6% YoY in August. Given the strong demand for Al in China (~60% of global consumption), bolstered by the rapid expansion of the local new energy sector, we maintain our positive view on the metal. We also note that at spot aluminium is still trading below its fundamentally reasonable price for 4Q24-2025 (USD 2,700-3,000/t, on our numbers)
🥉China's output of copper products was flat YoY in September, at 2.0mnt, after the 3% YoY gain in August. We reiterate our view that hefty grid investments in China, strong demand trends globally and monetary easing in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal's price. China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
📈China’s output of aluminium products jumped 8% YoY to 6.0mnt in September, slightly accelerating from the +6% YoY in August. Given the strong demand for Al in China (~60% of global consumption), bolstered by the rapid expansion of the local new energy sector, we maintain our positive view on the metal. We also note that at spot aluminium is still trading below its fundamentally reasonable price for 4Q24-2025 (USD 2,700-3,000/t, on our numbers)
🥉China's output of copper products was flat YoY in September, at 2.0mnt, after the 3% YoY gain in August. We reiterate our view that hefty grid investments in China, strong demand trends globally and monetary easing in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal's price. China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🏆Global physical gold demand dropped 21% YoY to 997t in 3Q24, after the revised 6% YoY slide in 2Q24, according to the World Gold Council (WGC) data. Central bank purchases in 3Q24 were down 49% YoY, vs. the +13% YoY (revised) seen in 2Q24. The demand for gold jewellery slid 12% YoY, decelerating from the revised drop of 18% YoY in 2Q24
Overall, total global gold demand shrank only 2% YoY in 3Q24 (vs. -4% YoY in 2Q24), as ETFs switched to gold buying, after the recently started monetary policy easing cycle in the EU/US and China. World mined gold output grew 6% YoY in 3Q24
We reiterate our view that, at spot, gold is trading above its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24 (~USD 2,400/oz). However, we see additional upside in the precious metal’s price due to persistent inflows into central banks and ETFs, as well as on the back of geopolitical tensions globally
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏆Global physical gold demand dropped 21% YoY to 997t in 3Q24, after the revised 6% YoY slide in 2Q24, according to the World Gold Council (WGC) data. Central bank purchases in 3Q24 were down 49% YoY, vs. the +13% YoY (revised) seen in 2Q24. The demand for gold jewellery slid 12% YoY, decelerating from the revised drop of 18% YoY in 2Q24
Overall, total global gold demand shrank only 2% YoY in 3Q24 (vs. -4% YoY in 2Q24), as ETFs switched to gold buying, after the recently started monetary policy easing cycle in the EU/US and China. World mined gold output grew 6% YoY in 3Q24
We reiterate our view that, at spot, gold is trading above its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24 (~USD 2,400/oz). However, we see additional upside in the precious metal’s price due to persistent inflows into central banks and ETFs, as well as on the back of geopolitical tensions globally
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Agnico Eagle 3Q24 results - EBITDA beats estimates
📝Agnico Eagle's 3Q24 revenues were slightly ahead of the consensus (+2%) and us (+5%) due to higher sales volumes than we had anticipated. As a result, adj. EBITDA also outpaced market expectations (+7% vs. the consensus and +4% vs. us)
📈Agnico’s 3Q24 gold AISC increased 10% QoQ (+6% YoY) to USD 1,286/oz. Regarding the 2024 AISC level, the miner reiterated its initial expectations of USD 1,200-1,250/oz (up 2-6% YoY)
⛏Agnico is also on track to fulfill its production outlook for 2024: payable gold output was confirmed at 3.35-3.55mnoz (flat YoY)
💰The BoD declared a 4Q cash dividend of USD 0.40/share, which implies a quarterly yield of some 0.5%. Additionally, in 4Q23 the company repurchased 362,343 common shares (USD 30mn; ~0.1% of share capital)
📌At spot, we expect Agnico Eagle's 4Q24F EBITDA to be materially stronger QoQ, supported by the ongoing rally in gold prices
#AEM #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/AEM_US/
📝Agnico Eagle's 3Q24 revenues were slightly ahead of the consensus (+2%) and us (+5%) due to higher sales volumes than we had anticipated. As a result, adj. EBITDA also outpaced market expectations (+7% vs. the consensus and +4% vs. us)
📈Agnico’s 3Q24 gold AISC increased 10% QoQ (+6% YoY) to USD 1,286/oz. Regarding the 2024 AISC level, the miner reiterated its initial expectations of USD 1,200-1,250/oz (up 2-6% YoY)
⛏Agnico is also on track to fulfill its production outlook for 2024: payable gold output was confirmed at 3.35-3.55mnoz (flat YoY)
💰The BoD declared a 4Q cash dividend of USD 0.40/share, which implies a quarterly yield of some 0.5%. Additionally, in 4Q23 the company repurchased 362,343 common shares (USD 30mn; ~0.1% of share capital)
📌At spot, we expect Agnico Eagle's 4Q24F EBITDA to be materially stronger QoQ, supported by the ongoing rally in gold prices
#AEM #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/AEM_US/
Morning Bites
💍 Chow Tai Fook’s 3Q24 LFL sales fell 25% YoY in the gem-set, platinum and K-gold jewellery segment (vs. -32% YoY in 2Q24), according to the company‘s report. Sales in the gem-set segment in Mainland China were down 28% YoY (vs. -33% YoY in 2Q24), while HK and Macau sales slid 17% YoY (vs. the 31% YoY drop in 2Q24)
Despite the retailer's downbeat results, China’s new fiscal support measures (to be announced in early-November) could support the local diamond jewellery market. This, along with solid downstream demand in the US (~53% of global gem-set jewellery trade), is likely to accelerate the ongoing destocking in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍 Chow Tai Fook’s 3Q24 LFL sales fell 25% YoY in the gem-set, platinum and K-gold jewellery segment (vs. -32% YoY in 2Q24), according to the company‘s report. Sales in the gem-set segment in Mainland China were down 28% YoY (vs. -33% YoY in 2Q24), while HK and Macau sales slid 17% YoY (vs. the 31% YoY drop in 2Q24)
Despite the retailer's downbeat results, China’s new fiscal support measures (to be announced in early-November) could support the local diamond jewellery market. This, along with solid downstream demand in the US (~53% of global gem-set jewellery trade), is likely to accelerate the ongoing destocking in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
🏦Global central banks accumulated net 52t of gold in September, vs. the +6t seen in August, the World Gold Council reports. The main buyers were Poland, Hungary and Azerbaijan (the latter reports only quarterly data) with 22t, 16t and 12t purchased, respectively. Meanwhile, only Kazakhstan and Jordan sold significant amounts: 4t and 3t, respectively
Although, at spot, gold keeps trading above its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24 (~USD 2,400/oz), we expect additional upside in the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as geopolitical tensions globally
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏦Global central banks accumulated net 52t of gold in September, vs. the +6t seen in August, the World Gold Council reports. The main buyers were Poland, Hungary and Azerbaijan (the latter reports only quarterly data) with 22t, 16t and 12t purchased, respectively. Meanwhile, only Kazakhstan and Jordan sold significant amounts: 4t and 3t, respectively
Although, at spot, gold keeps trading above its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24 (~USD 2,400/oz), we expect additional upside in the precious metal’s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as geopolitical tensions globally
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues apace, several major M&M names (e.g., Kinross, Arcelor and Barrick) are scheduled to release their 3Q24 financials this week. Our EBITDA estimates are mostly in line with the consensus
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
As the reporting season continues apace, several major M&M names (e.g., Kinross, Arcelor and Barrick) are scheduled to release their 3Q24 financials this week. Our EBITDA estimates are mostly in line with the consensus
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs remained soft in October. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 45.9 last month (vs. 45.0 in September). The US ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 45.6 (from 47.2, missing market expectations of 47.7)
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China was 50.1 (vs. 49.8 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, surpassing the forecasts of 49.7
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI was 57.4, remaining one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️In October, EU/US PMIs remained below 50.0, underlining the ongoing slowdown in their manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, China’s new fiscal stimulus (expected to be announced this week) might bolster local demand for industrial metals in 4Q24-2025 (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper), we believe
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs remained soft in October. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 45.9 last month (vs. 45.0 in September). The US ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 45.6 (from 47.2, missing market expectations of 47.7)
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China was 50.1 (vs. 49.8 a month ago). Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, surpassing the forecasts of 49.7
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI was 57.4, remaining one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️In October, EU/US PMIs remained below 50.0, underlining the ongoing slowdown in their manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, China’s new fiscal stimulus (expected to be announced this week) might bolster local demand for industrial metals in 4Q24-2025 (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper), we believe
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
💎US jewellery sales rose 8% YoY in September, accelerating from the +5% YoY in August, IDEX reports. Much of this recovery was driven by multi-line retailers (Amazon, Costco and Walmart), accounting for 2/3 of all US watch and jewellery sales. Meanwhile, local jewelers started preparation for holiday season, but preferred taking goods on memo rather than investing in inventory, per Rapaport
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales fell 17% YoY in September, vs. the 24% YoY decline in August, per government data. According to Rapaport, consumers spent less on luxury items, while outbound tourism increased. However, local officials expect China’s new economic support measures to bolster HK retail sentiment and spending
We reiterate our view that solid downstream demand in the US (~53% of global gem-set jewellery trade) is likely to accelerate the ongoing destocking in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎US jewellery sales rose 8% YoY in September, accelerating from the +5% YoY in August, IDEX reports. Much of this recovery was driven by multi-line retailers (Amazon, Costco and Walmart), accounting for 2/3 of all US watch and jewellery sales. Meanwhile, local jewelers started preparation for holiday season, but preferred taking goods on memo rather than investing in inventory, per Rapaport
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales fell 17% YoY in September, vs. the 24% YoY decline in August, per government data. According to Rapaport, consumers spent less on luxury items, while outbound tourism increased. However, local officials expect China’s new economic support measures to bolster HK retail sentiment and spending
We reiterate our view that solid downstream demand in the US (~53% of global gem-set jewellery trade) is likely to accelerate the ongoing destocking in 4Q24-1Q25, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for October (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s finished steel net exports surged 46% YoY in October, accelerating from the +29% YoY in September. To recap, soft domestic demand has led to elevated exports in 10mo24, which might also remain high in late-2024, amid China's concerns about global trade relations in 2025. Meanwhile, we reiterate our view that new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional fiscal stimulus expected to be disclosed in November) might bolster local construction activity in 2025
🪨China’s coal imports jumped 28% YoY in October, (mostly due to the low base effect from October 2023) after the +13% YoY in September. According to Bloomberg, Chinese utilities continued to build stockpiles and prepare for demand spikes over the colder season
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🔗China’s finished steel net exports surged 46% YoY in October, accelerating from the +29% YoY in September. To recap, soft domestic demand has led to elevated exports in 10mo24, which might also remain high in late-2024, amid China's concerns about global trade relations in 2025. Meanwhile, we reiterate our view that new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional fiscal stimulus expected to be disclosed in November) might bolster local construction activity in 2025
🪨China’s coal imports jumped 28% YoY in October, (mostly due to the low base effect from October 2023) after the +13% YoY in September. According to Bloomberg, Chinese utilities continued to build stockpiles and prepare for demand spikes over the colder season
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany dropped 3% YoY in October, after the 5% YoY slide in September, and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-17% vs. October 2019). In Germany and Spain, car sales were 18% and 11% below their 2019 levels, respectively, while registrations in France were 28% weaker. As for Italy, sales were 20% below the 2019 level, while UK sales were 1% above
Given that these five countries represented >70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2023, the region’s car sales likely declined YoY last month, remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany dropped 3% YoY in October, after the 5% YoY slide in September, and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-17% vs. October 2019). In Germany and Spain, car sales were 18% and 11% below their 2019 levels, respectively, while registrations in France were 28% weaker. As for Italy, sales were 20% below the 2019 level, while UK sales were 1% above
Given that these five countries represented >70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2023, the region’s car sales likely declined YoY last month, remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM