Morning Bites
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales dropped 22% YoY in September, in line with August's dynamics. The figures remain materially below their pre-Covid level (31% lower than September 2019), amid the strong appetite for EVs, affecting PGM consumption (the share of local ICE car sales declined further to 54% last month -- another historical low). We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China surged 42% YoY in September, following the 30% YoY gain in August. Specifically, PHEV and BEV sales grew 84% and 24% YoY, respectively. In our view, continuously strong local EV demand, along with new monetary easing measures in China, might add further support to the consumption of the battery metals basket (cobalt, lithium and nickel), as China accounted for ~58% of global EV sales in 1H24
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales dropped 22% YoY in September, in line with August's dynamics. The figures remain materially below their pre-Covid level (31% lower than September 2019), amid the strong appetite for EVs, affecting PGM consumption (the share of local ICE car sales declined further to 54% last month -- another historical low). We note that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China surged 42% YoY in September, following the 30% YoY gain in August. Specifically, PHEV and BEV sales grew 84% and 24% YoY, respectively. In our view, continuously strong local EV demand, along with new monetary easing measures in China, might add further support to the consumption of the battery metals basket (cobalt, lithium and nickel), as China accounted for ~58% of global EV sales in 1H24
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🗞Yesterday, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for September (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🔗China’s finished steel net exports surged 29% YoY in September, after the +18% YoY in August. According to Bloomberg, soft domestic demand (amid the property crisis) has spurred Chinese traders to send steel overseas, leading to elevated net exports in 9mo24 (+22% YoY). Meanwhile, the new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional fiscal stimulus expected in 4Q24) might bolster local construction activity in 2025, we believe
🪨China’s coal imports grew 13% YoY in September, accelerating from the +3% YoY in August. On the 9mo24 basis, the figure was up 12% YoY. According to Reuters, China's thermal power generation returned to YoY growth in August (last seen in April 2024) as heatwaves drove up local power demand, while hydropower output moderated. However, according to the IEA estimates, Chinese coal power generation might start to decline YoY in 2025, amid the country’s rapid shift to renewable energy
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🔗China’s finished steel net exports surged 29% YoY in September, after the +18% YoY in August. According to Bloomberg, soft domestic demand (amid the property crisis) has spurred Chinese traders to send steel overseas, leading to elevated net exports in 9mo24 (+22% YoY). Meanwhile, the new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional fiscal stimulus expected in 4Q24) might bolster local construction activity in 2025, we believe
🪨China’s coal imports grew 13% YoY in September, accelerating from the +3% YoY in August. On the 9mo24 basis, the figure was up 12% YoY. According to Reuters, China's thermal power generation returned to YoY growth in August (last seen in April 2024) as heatwaves drove up local power demand, while hydropower output moderated. However, according to the IEA estimates, Chinese coal power generation might start to decline YoY in 2025, amid the country’s rapid shift to renewable energy
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-September was reported at 2.01mnt, up 1.3% vs. the previous ten days, but still down 2.5% YoY. Meanwhile, on a 9mo24 basis, the surveyed mills’ output shrank 3.2% YoY. Local steel inventories declined 8.8% over late-September (but were up 6.3% YoY). We reiterate our view that the new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional fiscal stimulus expected in 4Q24) might add some support to local construction activity in 2025
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-September was reported at 2.01mnt, up 1.3% vs. the previous ten days, but still down 2.5% YoY. Meanwhile, on a 9mo24 basis, the surveyed mills’ output shrank 3.2% YoY. Local steel inventories declined 8.8% over late-September (but were up 6.3% YoY). We reiterate our view that the new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional fiscal stimulus expected in 4Q24) might add some support to local construction activity in 2025
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery declined 4% YoY in 3Q24, staying in line with the 2Q24 dynamics, according to a retailer’s press release. Although LVMH noted again that global geopolitical and economic conditions remained uncertain, the company is still confident of a solid performance in 2024 and continues to enhance the desirability of its brands
In our view, LVMH’s rather stable YoY sales dynamics in 9mo24 might add a slight positive impetus to sentiment on the global diamond sector. Meanwhile, solid demand in the US (53% of the global gem-set jewellery trade), as well as the new economic support measures in China (~12% of demand), could accelerate the release of industry inventories in the seasonally strong 4Q24-1Q25, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery declined 4% YoY in 3Q24, staying in line with the 2Q24 dynamics, according to a retailer’s press release. Although LVMH noted again that global geopolitical and economic conditions remained uncertain, the company is still confident of a solid performance in 2024 and continues to enhance the desirability of its brands
In our view, LVMH’s rather stable YoY sales dynamics in 9mo24 might add a slight positive impetus to sentiment on the global diamond sector. Meanwhile, solid demand in the US (53% of the global gem-set jewellery trade), as well as the new economic support measures in China (~12% of demand), could accelerate the release of industry inventories in the seasonally strong 4Q24-1Q25, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
🏗China’s excavator sales increased 11% YoY in September (domestic + export), in line with the 12% YoY gain in August, according to the CCMA data. The domestic sales were above CME estimates, being 22% higher YoY (albeit still 45% lower than the August 2021 level). According to China’s Housing Minister Ni Hong, the local property sector is gradually bottoming out, a statement underpinned by positive excavator sales dynamics.
Overall, the new economic support stimulus (which are not fully disclosed yet) announced by Beijing, as well as plans to double credit quotas for “white-list” unfinished property projects to CNY 4tn (USD 562bn) will likely add support local construction activity in 2025, we believe
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s excavator sales increased 11% YoY in September (domestic + export), in line with the 12% YoY gain in August, according to the CCMA data. The domestic sales were above CME estimates, being 22% higher YoY (albeit still 45% lower than the August 2021 level). According to China’s Housing Minister Ni Hong, the local property sector is gradually bottoming out, a statement underpinned by positive excavator sales dynamics.
Overall, the new economic support stimulus (which are not fully disclosed yet) announced by Beijing, as well as plans to double credit quotas for “white-list” unfinished property projects to CNY 4tn (USD 562bn) will likely add support local construction activity in 2025, we believe
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for September (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output fell 6% YoY in September (-10% YoY in August). On the 9mo24 basis, output was 4% lower YoY (per National Bureau of Statistics data), affected by slow domestic demand and subdued steel margins. Meanwhile, in late-September Beijing announced new economic support measures (which have not been fully disclosed yet), which might bolster local construction activity in 2025, although they are still not enough for the sector to recover fully
🏢China's property sales decreased 11% YoY in September (-13% YoY in August), and were 40% below the 2021 level. Floor space starts declined 20% YoY in September, being -62% vs. 2021. Personal mortgage loans were 26% lower YoY, while property completions fell 31% YoY (vs. -37% YoY the previous month). According to Chinese officials, the local property sector is gradually bottoming out, bolstered by the economic stimulus and support measures for unfinished real estate projects
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output fell 6% YoY in September (-10% YoY in August). On the 9mo24 basis, output was 4% lower YoY (per National Bureau of Statistics data), affected by slow domestic demand and subdued steel margins. Meanwhile, in late-September Beijing announced new economic support measures (which have not been fully disclosed yet), which might bolster local construction activity in 2025, although they are still not enough for the sector to recover fully
🏢China's property sales decreased 11% YoY in September (-13% YoY in August), and were 40% below the 2021 level. Floor space starts declined 20% YoY in September, being -62% vs. 2021. Personal mortgage loans were 26% lower YoY, while property completions fell 31% YoY (vs. -37% YoY the previous month). According to Chinese officials, the local property sector is gradually bottoming out, bolstered by the economic stimulus and support measures for unfinished real estate projects
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Alcoa 3Q24 results - aluminium recovery drives EBITDA growth
✏️Alcoa's 3Q24 revenues came in moderately below the consensus and our estimates, amid lower Al shipments than we had anticipated. However, EBITDA exceeded the market estimates, and was broadly in line with us
⛏Alcoa‘s outlook for its 2024 aluminium segment production and shipments remains unchanged from the previous projection: 2.2-2.3mnt and 2.5-2.6mnt, respectively
📈According to company CEO William Oplinger, global aluminum demand is currently at record levels, while long-term supply will be limited, as China is approaching its 45mnt production cap
❗️At spot, we expect Alcoa’s 4Q24F EBITDA to be materially stronger QoQ, as the spot Al price is ~6% above the 3Q24 avg.
#AA #Aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/company/AA_US
✏️Alcoa's 3Q24 revenues came in moderately below the consensus and our estimates, amid lower Al shipments than we had anticipated. However, EBITDA exceeded the market estimates, and was broadly in line with us
⛏Alcoa‘s outlook for its 2024 aluminium segment production and shipments remains unchanged from the previous projection: 2.2-2.3mnt and 2.5-2.6mnt, respectively
📈According to company CEO William Oplinger, global aluminum demand is currently at record levels, while long-term supply will be limited, as China is approaching its 45mnt production cap
❗️At spot, we expect Alcoa’s 4Q24F EBITDA to be materially stronger QoQ, as the spot Al price is ~6% above the 3Q24 avg.
#AA #Aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/company/AA_US
Week ahead data releases in M&M
This week, many global M&M names are scheduled to report their 3Q24 financials. We believe that the consensus is overly bullish in its EBITDA forecasts for large copper miners, such as SCCO and First Quantum, but underestimates Newmont performance
We also expect to see global monthly steel production data and EU car sales statistics for September on Tuesday
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
This week, many global M&M names are scheduled to report their 3Q24 financials. We believe that the consensus is overly bullish in its EBITDA forecasts for large copper miners, such as SCCO and First Quantum, but underestimates Newmont performance
We also expect to see global monthly steel production data and EU car sales statistics for September on Tuesday
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early October was reported at 2.05mnt, up 1.7% vs. the previous ten days, but still -1.6% YoY. On a YTD basis (until 10 October), output shrank 3.1% YoY, according to the CISA data. Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 3.2% in early October (but were down 10.0% YoY). We reiterate our view that the new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional fiscal stimulus expected in 4Q24) might add some support to local construction activity in 2025, which has already started to bottom out gradually, per Chinese officials
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early October was reported at 2.05mnt, up 1.7% vs. the previous ten days, but still -1.6% YoY. On a YTD basis (until 10 October), output shrank 3.1% YoY, according to the CISA data. Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 3.2% in early October (but were down 10.0% YoY). We reiterate our view that the new monetary support measures announced by Beijing (as well as the additional fiscal stimulus expected in 4Q24) might add some support to local construction activity in 2025, which has already started to bottom out gradually, per Chinese officials
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports fell 20% YoY in September, decelerating from the 47% YoY drop in August. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports declined 23% YoY (vs. -22% YoY in August). Synthetic rough diamond net imports fell 27% YoY, after the 8% YoY drop seen in August. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 8%
To recap, last month GJEPC underpinned the looming recovery in the diamond industry, as indicated by significant reductions in polished inventories across markets and price increases in certain diamond segments. We continue to believe that in 4Q24, polishers will unwind their inventories, paving the way for massive restocking in 1Q25
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports fell 20% YoY in September, decelerating from the 47% YoY drop in August. Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports declined 23% YoY (vs. -22% YoY in August). Synthetic rough diamond net imports fell 27% YoY, after the 8% YoY drop seen in August. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 8%
To recap, last month GJEPC underpinned the looming recovery in the diamond industry, as indicated by significant reductions in polished inventories across markets and price increases in certain diamond segments. We continue to believe that in 4Q24, polishers will unwind their inventories, paving the way for massive restocking in 1Q25
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations declined 4% YoY in September, after the 17% YoY decrease in August. The dynamics broadly met our estimates, while the figure remained 13% below the pre-COVID, 2019 level
In our view, the upcoming increase in European import duties (10-35%) on Chinese EVs, along with the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, might add some support to local PGM demand in 2025
In 2023, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations declined 4% YoY in September, after the 17% YoY decrease in August. The dynamics broadly met our estimates, while the figure remained 13% below the pre-COVID, 2019 level
In our view, the upcoming increase in European import duties (10-35%) on Chinese EVs, along with the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, might add some support to local PGM demand in 2025
In 2023, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Freeport McMoran 3Q24 results — slightly above consensus
✏️Freeport's 3Q24 revenues were 5% ahead of the consensus, but roughly in-line with our forecast. Similarly, adjusted EBITDA (USD 2,692mn) was 2% above market estimates, but matched our forecast
⛏Freeport reiterated its copper and gold sales outlook for 2024 (1.86mnt and 1.8mnoz, respectively). The miner sees its avg. 2024 Cu cash costs at $5,470/t (+5% YoY)
💰 We particularly noted that Freeport’s 3Q24 Cu cash costs surged 15% YoY to $5,760/t, which underpins our estimate that the current 90%-ile Cu cash cost is ~$7,500/t
📈 According to Freeport, there is positive momentum on the global Cu market, amid strong demand trends worldwide, especially in China (given grid spending, EV growth and new economic stimulus)
❗️At spot, we anticipate Freeport’s 4Q24F EBITDA to grow in the mid-single digits QoQ, as copper and gold are currently trading above their 3Q24 avg. (by 3% and 10%, respectively)
#FCX #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/FCX_US
✏️Freeport's 3Q24 revenues were 5% ahead of the consensus, but roughly in-line with our forecast. Similarly, adjusted EBITDA (USD 2,692mn) was 2% above market estimates, but matched our forecast
⛏Freeport reiterated its copper and gold sales outlook for 2024 (1.86mnt and 1.8mnoz, respectively). The miner sees its avg. 2024 Cu cash costs at $5,470/t (+5% YoY)
💰 We particularly noted that Freeport’s 3Q24 Cu cash costs surged 15% YoY to $5,760/t, which underpins our estimate that the current 90%-ile Cu cash cost is ~$7,500/t
📈 According to Freeport, there is positive momentum on the global Cu market, amid strong demand trends worldwide, especially in China (given grid spending, EV growth and new economic stimulus)
❗️At spot, we anticipate Freeport’s 4Q24F EBITDA to grow in the mid-single digits QoQ, as copper and gold are currently trading above their 3Q24 avg. (by 3% and 10%, respectively)
#FCX #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/FCX_US
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗Global crude steel output declined 5% YoY to 144mnt in September, after the 6% YoY drop seen in August, according to the World Steel Association data. China’s production (54% of global crude steel supply in September) was down 6% YoY (per the WSA data), after the -10% YoY in August. Ex-China steel output slipped 3% YoY. Specifically, the WSA numbers show that last month, Russia’s production dropped 10% YoY, while EU and US output was broadly flat YoY. Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) also stood flat YoY in September, being +6% YoY on 9mo24 basis
In our view, the recently announced monetary easing measures in China (along with the new fiscal stimulus expected in 4Q24) might add some support to local construction activity, which has already started to bottom out gradually, according to Chinese officials
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗Global crude steel output declined 5% YoY to 144mnt in September, after the 6% YoY drop seen in August, according to the World Steel Association data. China’s production (54% of global crude steel supply in September) was down 6% YoY (per the WSA data), after the -10% YoY in August. Ex-China steel output slipped 3% YoY. Specifically, the WSA numbers show that last month, Russia’s production dropped 10% YoY, while EU and US output was broadly flat YoY. Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) also stood flat YoY in September, being +6% YoY on 9mo24 basis
In our view, the recently announced monetary easing measures in China (along with the new fiscal stimulus expected in 4Q24) might add some support to local construction activity, which has already started to bottom out gradually, according to Chinese officials
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎Petra Diamonds’ LFL rough prices at its combined October tender slid 9% vs. its June auction, with weakness evident in the smaller size fractions, per the company's press release. According to Petra CEO Richard Duffy, current diamond market conditions remain challenging, but prices are likely to show some recovery in CY2025. Meanwhile, Petra’s management said it remained committed to achieving net cash generation in FY25 (ending Jun-25)
Although Petra revealed soft realised LFL price dynamics in October, the GJEPC noted a looming recovery in the diamond industry amid significant reductions in polished inventories across markets and price increases in certain diamond segments. We continue to believe that in 4Q24 polishers will unwind their inventories, paving the way for massive restocking in 1Q25
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎Petra Diamonds’ LFL rough prices at its combined October tender slid 9% vs. its June auction, with weakness evident in the smaller size fractions, per the company's press release. According to Petra CEO Richard Duffy, current diamond market conditions remain challenging, but prices are likely to show some recovery in CY2025. Meanwhile, Petra’s management said it remained committed to achieving net cash generation in FY25 (ending Jun-25)
Although Petra revealed soft realised LFL price dynamics in October, the GJEPC noted a looming recovery in the diamond industry amid significant reductions in polished inventories across markets and price increases in certain diamond segments. We continue to believe that in 4Q24 polishers will unwind their inventories, paving the way for massive restocking in 1Q25
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚗💨 Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in Europe dropped 16% YoY in 3Q24, after the 3% YoY slide in 2Q24. Petrol car sales shrank 15% YoY (vs. -2% YoY in 2Q24), while diesel cars fell 20% YoY. Diesel cars accounted for 24% of total ICE car registrations. Overall, the figures remain well below their pre-Covid levels, underpinning the soft local PGM demand. To recap, the EU represents 23% and 30% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively
🚘 EV sales in Europe were down 11% YoY in 3Q24, after the -2% YoY seen in 2Q24, likely amid the cut in Germany's incentives. Specifically, BEV sales were -10% YoY (vs. flat dynamics in 2Q24), while PHEV sales dipped 14% YoY. The share of BEVs in total EV sales hit 70% (68% in 2Q24). Despite some slowdown in local sales, the growing global attractiveness of EVs is set to provide further support to the demand for the battery metals (e.g. Ni, Li and cobalt)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🚗💨 Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in Europe dropped 16% YoY in 3Q24, after the 3% YoY slide in 2Q24. Petrol car sales shrank 15% YoY (vs. -2% YoY in 2Q24), while diesel cars fell 20% YoY. Diesel cars accounted for 24% of total ICE car registrations. Overall, the figures remain well below their pre-Covid levels, underpinning the soft local PGM demand. To recap, the EU represents 23% and 30% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively
🚘 EV sales in Europe were down 11% YoY in 3Q24, after the -2% YoY seen in 2Q24, likely amid the cut in Germany's incentives. Specifically, BEV sales were -10% YoY (vs. flat dynamics in 2Q24), while PHEV sales dipped 14% YoY. The share of BEVs in total EV sales hit 70% (68% in 2Q24). Despite some slowdown in local sales, the growing global attractiveness of EVs is set to provide further support to the demand for the battery metals (e.g. Ni, Li and cobalt)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports