Morning Bites
💎US jewellery sales rose 6% YoY in July, after the revised 5% YoY gain in June, marking the 9th consecutive YoY gain, IDEX reports, citing the US Department of Commerce. According to Rapaport, retail sales remained steady at mid- and high-end jewelers in July, while wholesalers aimed to hold limited diamond stock
We reiterate our view that solid sales recovery in the world's key US downstream market (~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade) could accelerate the release of industry inventories in 2H24, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎US jewellery sales rose 6% YoY in July, after the revised 5% YoY gain in June, marking the 9th consecutive YoY gain, IDEX reports, citing the US Department of Commerce. According to Rapaport, retail sales remained steady at mid- and high-end jewelers in July, while wholesalers aimed to hold limited diamond stock
We reiterate our view that solid sales recovery in the world's key US downstream market (~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade) could accelerate the release of industry inventories in 2H24, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
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Morning Bites (part 1)
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 29t net in August, following the +48t in July. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), inflows were recorded across all regions: North American funds raised 17t, while European funds added 8t. As we have noted previously, the return of ETFs to gold buying, after a long period of net selling, creates additional positive momentum for the metal
We maintain our view that gold is still trading above its fundamentally reasonable level for 2024 (USD 2,300-2,400/oz) amid persistently strong demand from global central banks and the widely expected US Fed funds rate cut in September 2024. However, we see more upside risk in gold prices following geopolitical factors, as well as ETFs’ return to gold buying
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 29t net in August, following the +48t in July. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), inflows were recorded across all regions: North American funds raised 17t, while European funds added 8t. As we have noted previously, the return of ETFs to gold buying, after a long period of net selling, creates additional positive momentum for the metal
We maintain our view that gold is still trading above its fundamentally reasonable level for 2024 (USD 2,300-2,400/oz) amid persistently strong demand from global central banks and the widely expected US Fed funds rate cut in September 2024. However, we see more upside risk in gold prices following geopolitical factors, as well as ETFs’ return to gold buying
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
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Morning Bites (part 2)
💎The GJEPC has noted a looming recovery in the diamond industry, according to the council’s letter. Significant reductions in polished diamond inventories across markets indicate that supply (which might be significantly lower YoY in 2024) is now more aligned with demand, providing a basis for price stabilisation. The GJEPC also highlighted the strong sales momentum in August, in addition to price increases in certain diamond segments
As we have noted previously, solid US downstream demand (~53% of the global gem-set jewellery trade) would accelerate the diamond sector recovery in 2H24, while the upcoming festive season is expected to see good sales
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎The GJEPC has noted a looming recovery in the diamond industry, according to the council’s letter. Significant reductions in polished diamond inventories across markets indicate that supply (which might be significantly lower YoY in 2024) is now more aligned with demand, providing a basis for price stabilisation. The GJEPC also highlighted the strong sales momentum in August, in addition to price increases in certain diamond segments
As we have noted previously, solid US downstream demand (~53% of the global gem-set jewellery trade) would accelerate the diamond sector recovery in 2H24, while the upcoming festive season is expected to see good sales
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany dropped 20% YoY in August, after the 1% YoY gain in July, and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-30% vs. August 2019). In Germany and Spain, car sales were 37% and 30% below their 2019 levels, respectively, while registrations in France were 33% weaker. As for Italy and the UK, sales were 22% and 9% below August 2019, respectively
Given that these five countries represented >70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2023, the region’s car sales likely declined YoY last month, remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany dropped 20% YoY in August, after the 1% YoY gain in July, and remained firmly below their pre-COVID level (-30% vs. August 2019). In Germany and Spain, car sales were 37% and 30% below their 2019 levels, respectively, while registrations in France were 33% weaker. As for Italy and the UK, sales were 22% and 9% below August 2019, respectively
Given that these five countries represented >70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2023, the region’s car sales likely declined YoY last month, remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for August (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s finished steel net exports jumped 18% YoY in August, accelerating from the +10% YoY in July. To recap, weak domestic demand (amid the prolonged property crisis) has encouraged local producers to find customers abroad, leading to elevated exports in 8mo24. We maintain our view that steel demand in China is likely to remain soft in 2H24. However, new support measures for unfinished real estate projects might somewhat bolster sentiment, we believe
🪨China’s coal imports rose 3% YoY in August, decelerating from the +18% YoY in July. According to Reuters, local utilities continued to stock up coal amid the record-breaking hot weather (to power air conditioning)
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🔗China’s finished steel net exports jumped 18% YoY in August, accelerating from the +10% YoY in July. To recap, weak domestic demand (amid the prolonged property crisis) has encouraged local producers to find customers abroad, leading to elevated exports in 8mo24. We maintain our view that steel demand in China is likely to remain soft in 2H24. However, new support measures for unfinished real estate projects might somewhat bolster sentiment, we believe
🪨China’s coal imports rose 3% YoY in August, decelerating from the +18% YoY in July. According to Reuters, local utilities continued to stock up coal amid the record-breaking hot weather (to power air conditioning)
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-August was reported at 1.89mnt, the lowest point this year (-5.4% vs. the previous ten days and -7.8% YoY). Meanwhile, for 8mo24, output was down 2.8% YoY. At the same time, local steel inventories slid 11.6% over the period (but were up 1.2% YoY). We reiterate our view that soft domestic steel demand might continue to weigh on China’s steel output in the near term, unless new material economic support measures are announced
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-August was reported at 1.89mnt, the lowest point this year (-5.4% vs. the previous ten days and -7.8% YoY). Meanwhile, for 8mo24, output was down 2.8% YoY. At the same time, local steel inventories slid 11.6% over the period (but were up 1.2% YoY). We reiterate our view that soft domestic steel demand might continue to weigh on China’s steel output in the near term, unless new material economic support measures are announced
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 3)
🚘US light vehicle sales grew 6% YoY in August, reversing from the -3% YoY in July. The figure was still 15% below the pre-Covid 2019 level. Meanwhile, seasonally-adjusted sales volumes were flat YoY last month but 12% lower than the August 2019 level. We believe that continuously soft automotive demand, along with the growing appetite for EVs globally, are likely to weigh further on PGM consumption
On our numbers, North America accounted for 22% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2023
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🚘US light vehicle sales grew 6% YoY in August, reversing from the -3% YoY in July. The figure was still 15% below the pre-Covid 2019 level. Meanwhile, seasonally-adjusted sales volumes were flat YoY last month but 12% lower than the August 2019 level. We believe that continuously soft automotive demand, along with the growing appetite for EVs globally, are likely to weigh further on PGM consumption
On our numbers, North America accounted for 22% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2023
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🏗China’s excavator sales grew 12% YoY in August (domestic + export), accelerating from the +9% YoY in July, according to the CCMA data. The figure slightly exceeded the CME estimates. Specifically, domestic sales were up 18% YoY (but still 46% below the August 2021 level). Despite the positive dynamics seen in recent months, we note that the major sales volumes usually take place in February-April, making the summer period less representative. We maintain our view that more government support measures are required for a full-scale recovery in China’s property sector
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s excavator sales grew 12% YoY in August (domestic + export), accelerating from the +9% YoY in July, according to the CCMA data. The figure slightly exceeded the CME estimates. Specifically, domestic sales were up 18% YoY (but still 46% below the August 2021 level). Despite the positive dynamics seen in recent months, we note that the major sales volumes usually take place in February-April, making the summer period less representative. We maintain our view that more government support measures are required for a full-scale recovery in China’s property sector
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output rose 2% YoY in July, reversing from the 1% YoY decline in June, according to the INE data. Meanwhile, on a 7mo24 basis, the country’s Cu output was up ~2% YoY. To recap, Chile's leading miner, Codelco (~7% of global Cu supply), plans to increase production by up to 5% YoY in 2024. In our view, this plan looks rather ambitious, as the miner’s output was down 8% YoY in 1H24, pressured by negative structural effects (e.g. ore depletion) and unfavourable weather conditions. Furthermore, we note that Codelco failed to reach its previous guidance (1.33mnt in 2023 vs. 1.45mnt initially planned)
To recap, Chile accounts for ~24% of global Cu supply
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇨🇱Chile’s copper output rose 2% YoY in July, reversing from the 1% YoY decline in June, according to the INE data. Meanwhile, on a 7mo24 basis, the country’s Cu output was up ~2% YoY. To recap, Chile's leading miner, Codelco (~7% of global Cu supply), plans to increase production by up to 5% YoY in 2024. In our view, this plan looks rather ambitious, as the miner’s output was down 8% YoY in 1H24, pressured by negative structural effects (e.g. ore depletion) and unfavourable weather conditions. Furthermore, we note that Codelco failed to reach its previous guidance (1.33mnt in 2023 vs. 1.45mnt initially planned)
To recap, Chile accounts for ~24% of global Cu supply
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales plunged 22% YoY in August, in line with the -21% YoY in July. The figures continue to be materially below their pre-Covid level (-28% vs. August 2019), amid the strong appetite for EVs, thus affecting PGM consumption (the share of local ICE car sales declined to 55% last month - another historical low). We recap that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 30% YoY in August, following the +27% YoY in July. In our view, continuously strong local EV demand might add further support to the consumption of the battery metals basket (cobalt, lithium and nickel), as China accounted for ~58% of global EV sales in 1H24
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales plunged 22% YoY in August, in line with the -21% YoY in July. The figures continue to be materially below their pre-Covid level (-28% vs. August 2019), amid the strong appetite for EVs, thus affecting PGM consumption (the share of local ICE car sales declined to 55% last month - another historical low). We recap that the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 30% YoY in August, following the +27% YoY in July. In our view, continuously strong local EV demand might add further support to the consumption of the battery metals basket (cobalt, lithium and nickel), as China accounted for ~58% of global EV sales in 1H24
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output inched down 1% YoY in July, after the 6% YoY drop in June, according to official statistics. The country’s gold production fell 4% YoY, decelerating from the 13% YoY fall in June. In our view, unfavourable market conditions will likely keep weighing on PGM production in 2H24, as demand from the automotive sector remains subdued, which is accentuated by growing consumer interest for EVs globally
To recap, SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of global gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output inched down 1% YoY in July, after the 6% YoY drop in June, according to official statistics. The country’s gold production fell 4% YoY, decelerating from the 13% YoY fall in June. In our view, unfavourable market conditions will likely keep weighing on PGM production in 2H24, as demand from the automotive sector remains subdued, which is accentuated by growing consumer interest for EVs globally
To recap, SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of global gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🗞Last weekend, China has published its industrial production data for August (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped another 10% YoY in August, after the 9% YoY decline in July. Meanwhile, production remained 3% lower YoY on an 8mo24 basis, in response to weak demand, driven by the ongoing slump in construction activity and soft consumer confidence, according to Bloomberg, which also led to elevated exports (+18% YoY in August). China represents ~57% of global steel supply
🏢China's property sales decreased 13% YoY in August (after the 12% YoY decline in July), and were 49% below the 2021 level. Floor space starts declined 17% YoY in August (after the 19% YoY contraction in July), and were 65% lower than in 2021. Personal mortgage loans were 22% lower YoY (vs. the 34% YoY decrease a month ago), while property completions fell 37% YoY (vs. the 22% YoY decrease in July). We reiterate our view that more state support measures are needed for a full-scale recovery in the stressed property sector
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output dropped another 10% YoY in August, after the 9% YoY decline in July. Meanwhile, production remained 3% lower YoY on an 8mo24 basis, in response to weak demand, driven by the ongoing slump in construction activity and soft consumer confidence, according to Bloomberg, which also led to elevated exports (+18% YoY in August). China represents ~57% of global steel supply
🏢China's property sales decreased 13% YoY in August (after the 12% YoY decline in July), and were 49% below the 2021 level. Floor space starts declined 17% YoY in August (after the 19% YoY contraction in July), and were 65% lower than in 2021. Personal mortgage loans were 22% lower YoY (vs. the 34% YoY decrease a month ago), while property completions fell 37% YoY (vs. the 22% YoY decrease in July). We reiterate our view that more state support measures are needed for a full-scale recovery in the stressed property sector
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Signet has reported a 3.4% YoY drop in same-store sales in 2Q24 (May-July), decelerating from the -8.9% YoY in 1Q24. However, we note that sequential same store sales improved for the fifth consecutive quarter. According to the retailer’s press release, same store sales in North America shrank 3.7% YoY, while proceeds from the international segment inched up 1.7% YoY
We reiterate our view that the solid sales recovery in the world's key US downstream market (~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade) could accelerate the ongoing destocking in 2H24, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
💍Signet has reported a 3.4% YoY drop in same-store sales in 2Q24 (May-July), decelerating from the -8.9% YoY in 1Q24. However, we note that sequential same store sales improved for the fifth consecutive quarter. According to the retailer’s press release, same store sales in North America shrank 3.7% YoY, while proceeds from the international segment inched up 1.7% YoY
We reiterate our view that the solid sales recovery in the world's key US downstream market (~53% of global retail gem-set jewellery trade) could accelerate the ongoing destocking in 2H24, supporting sentiment in the stressed diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🏦 China’s aggregate financing declined 3% YoY in August to CNY 3.03tn, reversing from the 46% YoY spike in July (and was also -13% YoY on the 8mo24 basis). Meanwhile, traditional bank loans dropped 34% YoY, missing the consensus estimates by 12%. We reiterate our view that more economic support measures are needed for a full-scale recovery in the stressed Chinese property sector
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🏦 China’s aggregate financing declined 3% YoY in August to CNY 3.03tn, reversing from the 46% YoY spike in July (and was also -13% YoY on the 8mo24 basis). Meanwhile, traditional bank loans dropped 34% YoY, missing the consensus estimates by 12%. We reiterate our view that more economic support measures are needed for a full-scale recovery in the stressed Chinese property sector
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output declined 3% YoY in July, after the 12% YoY decrease in June, per MINEM data. Although the Peruvian government initially planned to boost domestic Cu supply 9% YoY in 2024 (after the 13% YoY increase in 2023), output on a 7mo24 basis has declined 2% YoY. According to the country’s deputy mining minister, Henry Luna, the YTD dynamics imply that actual production in 2024 will remain broadly flat YoY
The joint production of Chile and Peru (~24% and ~12% of global Cu supply, respectively) was roughly unchanged YoY both in July and on a 7mo24 basis
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output declined 3% YoY in July, after the 12% YoY decrease in June, per MINEM data. Although the Peruvian government initially planned to boost domestic Cu supply 9% YoY in 2024 (after the 13% YoY increase in 2023), output on a 7mo24 basis has declined 2% YoY. According to the country’s deputy mining minister, Henry Luna, the YTD dynamics imply that actual production in 2024 will remain broadly flat YoY
The joint production of Chile and Peru (~24% and ~12% of global Cu supply, respectively) was roughly unchanged YoY both in July and on a 7mo24 basis
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper