Morning Bites
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output inched down 1% YoY in May, after the 8% YoY drop in April, according to the MINEM data. Although the Peruvian government plans to boost domestic Cu supply 9% YoY in 2024 (after the +13% YoY in 2023), output on the 5mo24 basis remained broadly flat YoY. In our view, the YTD dynamics add some scepticism to the announced plan
The joint production of Chile and Peru (~24% and ~12% of global Cu supply, respectively) gained 5% YoY in May
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output inched down 1% YoY in May, after the 8% YoY drop in April, according to the MINEM data. Although the Peruvian government plans to boost domestic Cu supply 9% YoY in 2024 (after the +13% YoY in 2023), output on the 5mo24 basis remained broadly flat YoY. In our view, the YTD dynamics add some scepticism to the announced plan
The joint production of Chile and Peru (~24% and ~12% of global Cu supply, respectively) gained 5% YoY in May
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎 De Beers has allowed sightholders to defer some rough purchases at its 6th cycle in 2024, Rapaport reports, citing a miner’s message. Hence, sightholders will be able to avoid buying up to 50% of their allocations for <0.75ct diamonds (of medium and high quality) at the upcoming July trading session. In addition, De Beers is to allow sightholders to sell up to 30% of certain rough back to the miner (this option is usually capped at 10%)
Overall, the announced measures are in line with De Beers’ price-over-volume strategy, and could brighten the sentiment on diamonds in 2024, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎 De Beers has allowed sightholders to defer some rough purchases at its 6th cycle in 2024, Rapaport reports, citing a miner’s message. Hence, sightholders will be able to avoid buying up to 50% of their allocations for <0.75ct diamonds (of medium and high quality) at the upcoming July trading session. In addition, De Beers is to allow sightholders to sell up to 30% of certain rough back to the miner (this option is usually capped at 10%)
Overall, the announced measures are in line with De Beers’ price-over-volume strategy, and could brighten the sentiment on diamonds in 2024, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇨🇳China’s grid accelerated its purchases of aluminium wire in early 2024, as a cheaper substitute for copper, Bloomberg reports. According to industry executives, China's State Grid (>80% of local electricity supplies) slowed its purchases of copper wire in recent months, as the red metal's prices remain near all time highs (at spot, +62% vs. 2019 level). At the same time, the State Grid’s tenders for aluminum cables rose 40% YoY, to 718kt in 4mo24
In our view, if China did start widely substituting copper with aluminium in its power networks, aluminum prices would enjoy material support. To recap, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Cu and Al consumption in China, on our numbers
#copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇨🇳China’s grid accelerated its purchases of aluminium wire in early 2024, as a cheaper substitute for copper, Bloomberg reports. According to industry executives, China's State Grid (>80% of local electricity supplies) slowed its purchases of copper wire in recent months, as the red metal's prices remain near all time highs (at spot, +62% vs. 2019 level). At the same time, the State Grid’s tenders for aluminum cables rose 40% YoY, to 718kt in 4mo24
In our view, if China did start widely substituting copper with aluminium in its power networks, aluminum prices would enjoy material support. To recap, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Cu and Al consumption in China, on our numbers
#copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-July was reported at 2.15mnt, down 0.7% from the previous ten days and 4.0% lower than in the same period a year earlier. Meanwhile, local steel inventories grew 4.8% over the period (but were down 3.1% YoY). In our view, soft domestic steel demand, which was driving export growth, might continue to weigh on China’s steel output in the short term (-1.1% YoY in 1H24)
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in early-July was reported at 2.15mnt, down 0.7% from the previous ten days and 4.0% lower than in the same period a year earlier. Meanwhile, local steel inventories grew 4.8% over the period (but were down 3.1% YoY). In our view, soft domestic steel demand, which was driving export growth, might continue to weigh on China’s steel output in the short term (-1.1% YoY in 1H24)
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports shrank 30% YoY in June to USD 918mn, reversing from the 4% YoY growth in May. In terms of volumes, net imports were down 19% YoY to 7.8mnct. India’s polished diamond net exports were down 25% YoY (vs. -19% YoY in May). Synthetic rough diamond net imports dropped 24% YoY, after the 16% YoY growth seen in May. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 6% in June. On our numbers, the Indian midstream remains in the stock accumulation zone
India accounts for ~95% of world polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports shrank 30% YoY in June to USD 918mn, reversing from the 4% YoY growth in May. In terms of volumes, net imports were down 19% YoY to 7.8mnct. India’s polished diamond net exports were down 25% YoY (vs. -19% YoY in May). Synthetic rough diamond net imports dropped 24% YoY, after the 16% YoY growth seen in May. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 6% in June. On our numbers, the Indian midstream remains in the stock accumulation zone
India accounts for ~95% of world polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations grew 4% YoY in June, after the -2% YoY in May. The dynamics were in line with our estimates. Meanwhile, the sales were still 12% below the pre-COVID, 2019 level. We maintain our view that EU car sales are likely to remain sluggish, at least in the short term, given the still weak local economic activity in the region (as indicated by the EU PMI remaining <50), which is a negative factor for PGM consumption
To recap, in 2023 the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations grew 4% YoY in June, after the -2% YoY in May. The dynamics were in line with our estimates. Meanwhile, the sales were still 12% below the pre-COVID, 2019 level. We maintain our view that EU car sales are likely to remain sluggish, at least in the short term, given the still weak local economic activity in the region (as indicated by the EU PMI remaining <50), which is a negative factor for PGM consumption
To recap, in 2023 the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Week ahead data releases in M&M
With the reporting season ongoing, several major M&M companies are due to report their earnings this week. As concerns Anglo American, Amplats and Teck, we are more conservative than the consensus estimates on their EBITDA
We also await the World Steel monthly production statistics, which are scheduled for Tuesday
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
With the reporting season ongoing, several major M&M companies are due to report their earnings this week. As concerns Anglo American, Amplats and Teck, we are more conservative than the consensus estimates on their EBITDA
We also await the World Steel monthly production statistics, which are scheduled for Tuesday
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚗💨Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in Europe declined 3% YoY in 2Q24, after the -4% YoY in 1Q24 (and were also -58% vs. 2Q19 level). Petrol car sales shrank 2% YoY (vs. -1% YoY in 1Q24), while diesel cars were down 5% YoY. Diesel cars accounted for 25% of total ICE car registrations (24% in 1Q24). Overall, the figures remain well below the pre-Covid levels, stressing PGM demand. To recap, the EU represents 23% and 30% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively
🚘 EV sales in Europe inched down 2% YoY in 2Q24, after the +6% YoY in 1Q24. Specifically, BEV sales were flat YoY (vs. +3% YoY in 1Q24), while PHEV sales dipped 7% YoY. The share of BEVs in total EV sales was 68% (64% in 1Q24). Despite some slowdown in local sales, the growing global attractiveness of EVs is likely to provide further support to the demand for the battery metals (e.g. Ni, Li and cobalt)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🚗💨Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in Europe declined 3% YoY in 2Q24, after the -4% YoY in 1Q24 (and were also -58% vs. 2Q19 level). Petrol car sales shrank 2% YoY (vs. -1% YoY in 1Q24), while diesel cars were down 5% YoY. Diesel cars accounted for 25% of total ICE car registrations (24% in 1Q24). Overall, the figures remain well below the pre-Covid levels, stressing PGM demand. To recap, the EU represents 23% and 30% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively
🚘 EV sales in Europe inched down 2% YoY in 2Q24, after the +6% YoY in 1Q24. Specifically, BEV sales were flat YoY (vs. +3% YoY in 1Q24), while PHEV sales dipped 7% YoY. The share of BEVs in total EV sales was 68% (64% in 1Q24). Despite some slowdown in local sales, the growing global attractiveness of EVs is likely to provide further support to the demand for the battery metals (e.g. Ni, Li and cobalt)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Richemont jewellery segment sales grew 2% YoY in 2Q24, after the 1% YoY drop in 1Q24, according to a press release from the retailer. Specifically, sales growth was recorded across almost all regions: Japan (+42% YoY), the Americas (+11% YoY) and Europe (+4% YoY). There was only a slowdown in Asia Pacific (-19% YoY), due to both lower consumer confidence and the 2023 high base effect, Richemont explained. We reiterate our view that the gradual recovery in US demand (53% of global gem-set jewellery trade) could speed up the release of industry inventories, supporting sentiment in the global diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Richemont jewellery segment sales grew 2% YoY in 2Q24, after the 1% YoY drop in 1Q24, according to a press release from the retailer. Specifically, sales growth was recorded across almost all regions: Japan (+42% YoY), the Americas (+11% YoY) and Europe (+4% YoY). There was only a slowdown in Asia Pacific (-19% YoY), due to both lower consumer confidence and the 2023 high base effect, Richemont explained. We reiterate our view that the gradual recovery in US demand (53% of global gem-set jewellery trade) could speed up the release of industry inventories, supporting sentiment in the global diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 3.2% YoY in June, roughly in line with the revised +3.5% YoY in May, according to data from the International Aluminium Institute. Specifically, China’s production (59% of global Al output) rose 4.2% YoY, following improved power supply from the country's hydroelectric system, as well as smelters’ solidified margins. Although spot Al prices shrank 7% MoM to USD 2,330/t, amid the lack of new material economic support measures in China, Al is trading below its fundamentally reasonable level for 2024 (USD >2,500/t), on our numbers
Furthermore, China’s Al output is capped at 45mnt (vs. 43.5mnt annualised in 1H24), implying limited potential for additional supply growth
We reiterate our view that the strong consumption dynamics in China (incl. solid demand from the local new energy sector and grid), as well as the widely expected monetary easing in the US in 2024, could well add support to Al prices
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 3.2% YoY in June, roughly in line with the revised +3.5% YoY in May, according to data from the International Aluminium Institute. Specifically, China’s production (59% of global Al output) rose 4.2% YoY, following improved power supply from the country's hydroelectric system, as well as smelters’ solidified margins. Although spot Al prices shrank 7% MoM to USD 2,330/t, amid the lack of new material economic support measures in China, Al is trading below its fundamentally reasonable level for 2024 (USD >2,500/t), on our numbers
Furthermore, China’s Al output is capped at 45mnt (vs. 43.5mnt annualised in 1H24), implying limited potential for additional supply growth
We reiterate our view that the strong consumption dynamics in China (incl. solid demand from the local new energy sector and grid), as well as the widely expected monetary easing in the US in 2024, could well add support to Al prices
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
Freeport McMoran 2Q24 results — beat consensus
✏️Freeport's 2Q24 revenues came in ahead of the consensus and our estimates (by 9% and 6%, respectively), mainly due to stronger proceeds from non-mining activities than we had anticipated. As a result, adjusted EBITDA was also a positive surprise (+10% vs. the consensus, and +4% vs. us)
⛏The miner reiterated its copper sales outlook for 2024 (1.86mnt), while gold sales were revised down 10% to 1.8mnoz, following operational issues at Grassberg. The company also anticipates 2024 net unit cash costs to remain in-line with the 2023 average of USD 1.60/lb
📈 According to Freeport, despite economic uncertainties in China, the Cu market remains fundamentally strong amid solid new energy and technological trends worldwide
❗️At spot, we expect Freeport’s 3Q24F EBITDA to stay broadly flat QoQ, as potentially higher Cu sales should offset the negative effects from lower Cu prices (currently -6% vs. 2Q24 av.)
#FCX #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/FCX_US
✏️Freeport's 2Q24 revenues came in ahead of the consensus and our estimates (by 9% and 6%, respectively), mainly due to stronger proceeds from non-mining activities than we had anticipated. As a result, adjusted EBITDA was also a positive surprise (+10% vs. the consensus, and +4% vs. us)
⛏The miner reiterated its copper sales outlook for 2024 (1.86mnt), while gold sales were revised down 10% to 1.8mnoz, following operational issues at Grassberg. The company also anticipates 2024 net unit cash costs to remain in-line with the 2023 average of USD 1.60/lb
📈 According to Freeport, despite economic uncertainties in China, the Cu market remains fundamentally strong amid solid new energy and technological trends worldwide
❗️At spot, we expect Freeport’s 3Q24F EBITDA to stay broadly flat QoQ, as potentially higher Cu sales should offset the negative effects from lower Cu prices (currently -6% vs. 2Q24 av.)
#FCX #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/FCX_US
❤1
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output was broadly flat YoY at 161mnt in June, after the +2% YoY in May, per World Steel Association data. Meanwhile, China’s production (~57% of global crude steel supply) was unchanged YoY, after the 3% YoY gain in May. Ex-China steel output inched up 1% YoY in June. Specifically, last month, Russian and US production declined 4% YoY and 2% YoY, respectively, while EU supply added 5% YoY (after the +2% YoY in May). The increase in Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) was 6% YoY (vs. +4% YoY in May)
We reiterate our view that China’s steel demand will likely remain soft in 2H24 amid the lack of significant new economic support measures (especially for its property sector), which are not enough to revive consumption, we believe
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗Global crude steel output was broadly flat YoY at 161mnt in June, after the +2% YoY in May, per World Steel Association data. Meanwhile, China’s production (~57% of global crude steel supply) was unchanged YoY, after the 3% YoY gain in May. Ex-China steel output inched up 1% YoY in June. Specifically, last month, Russian and US production declined 4% YoY and 2% YoY, respectively, while EU supply added 5% YoY (after the +2% YoY in May). The increase in Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) was 6% YoY (vs. +4% YoY in May)
We reiterate our view that China’s steel demand will likely remain soft in 2H24 amid the lack of significant new economic support measures (especially for its property sector), which are not enough to revive consumption, we believe
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery shrank 4% YoY in 2Q24, after the 2% YoY decline in 1Q24, according to a company press release. Although LVMH notes that the global geopolitical and economic conditions remain uncertain, the retailer is still confident of solid 2024 performance: it remains focused on enhancing the desirability of its brands
In our view, the somewhat stable YoY sales dynamics in 1H24 are likely to lift diamond sector sentiment a little. Meanwhile, the gradual recovery in US demand (53% of global gem-set jewellery trade) could accelerate the release of industry inventories in 2024, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery shrank 4% YoY in 2Q24, after the 2% YoY decline in 1Q24, according to a company press release. Although LVMH notes that the global geopolitical and economic conditions remain uncertain, the retailer is still confident of solid 2024 performance: it remains focused on enhancing the desirability of its brands
In our view, the somewhat stable YoY sales dynamics in 1H24 are likely to lift diamond sector sentiment a little. Meanwhile, the gradual recovery in US demand (53% of global gem-set jewellery trade) could accelerate the release of industry inventories in 2024, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
📉Russia’s gold output was flat YoY in June, after the 9.6% YoY growth in May, according to the Rosstat data. Meanwhile, the figure was up 10.7% MoM, and 4.8% higher YoY on 1H24 basis. According to WGC, Russia’s gold output accounted for ~9% of the world's mined supply in 2023
We reiterate our view that at spot gold is trading above its fundamentally reasonable level (USD 2,200-2,300/oz for 2024), supported by strong demand from central banks and general expectations of a US Fed funds rate cut in 2024. Furthermore, in May-June, global ETFs returned to gold purchasing after 12 months of consecutive net selling, which aided gold market sentiment
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
📉Russia’s gold output was flat YoY in June, after the 9.6% YoY growth in May, according to the Rosstat data. Meanwhile, the figure was up 10.7% MoM, and 4.8% higher YoY on 1H24 basis. According to WGC, Russia’s gold output accounted for ~9% of the world's mined supply in 2023
We reiterate our view that at spot gold is trading above its fundamentally reasonable level (USD 2,200-2,300/oz for 2024), supported by strong demand from central banks and general expectations of a US Fed funds rate cut in 2024. Furthermore, in May-June, global ETFs returned to gold purchasing after 12 months of consecutive net selling, which aided gold market sentiment
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳China’s grid infrastructure investment surged 28% YoY in June, accelerating from the +14% YoY in May, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. On the 1H24 basis, investments were up 24% YoY, and were also 38% above the 1H20-23 average. In our view, strong grid construction dynamics could add material support to copper and aluminium prices, as the grid accounts for 10-15% of Cu and Al consumption in China, on our numbers
Furthermore, China is set to invest ~USD 800bn in the local grid in 2025-30 (vs. USD ~450bn spent in 2018-23), as Beijing aims to match the growing installations of renewable energy. Hence, we keep our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global clean energy transition in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇨🇳China’s grid infrastructure investment surged 28% YoY in June, accelerating from the +14% YoY in May, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. On the 1H24 basis, investments were up 24% YoY, and were also 38% above the 1H20-23 average. In our view, strong grid construction dynamics could add material support to copper and aluminium prices, as the grid accounts for 10-15% of Cu and Al consumption in China, on our numbers
Furthermore, China is set to invest ~USD 800bn in the local grid in 2025-30 (vs. USD ~450bn spent in 2018-23), as Beijing aims to match the growing installations of renewable energy. Hence, we keep our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global clean energy transition in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎De Beers has again cut its 2024 production guidance 10%, to 23-26mnct, amid still elevated midstream inventories and operational constraints at some assets, per a company press-release. In April the company already revised down its outlook to 26-29mnct (vs. 29-32 expected earlier). Hence, De Beers diamond production (historically ~30% of global supply) is set to decrease 20-30% YoY
In our view, the decision is in-line with De Beers’ price-over-volume strategy, and is positive for diamond sector sentiment, which still remains stressed
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎De Beers has again cut its 2024 production guidance 10%, to 23-26mnct, amid still elevated midstream inventories and operational constraints at some assets, per a company press-release. In April the company already revised down its outlook to 26-29mnct (vs. 29-32 expected earlier). Hence, De Beers diamond production (historically ~30% of global supply) is set to decrease 20-30% YoY
In our view, the decision is in-line with De Beers’ price-over-volume strategy, and is positive for diamond sector sentiment, which still remains stressed
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues apace, several major M&M names are scheduled to release their 1H24/2Q24 financials this week. Our EBITDA estimates for Rio Tinto and Arcelor Mittal are marginally below the consensus. Regarding gold miners, we are roughly in line with the consensus on Agnico Eagle, while we expect Kinross and Fresnillo to reveal rather upbeat EBITDA figures
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
As the reporting season continues apace, several major M&M names are scheduled to release their 1H24/2Q24 financials this week. Our EBITDA estimates for Rio Tinto and Arcelor Mittal are marginally below the consensus. Regarding gold miners, we are roughly in line with the consensus on Agnico Eagle, while we expect Kinross and Fresnillo to reveal rather upbeat EBITDA figures
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales jumped 11% YoY in July (domestic + export), accelerating from the +5% YoY dynamics in June, according to the CME estimates. The figure, however, remained 19% below the 2021 level. Meanwhile, domestic excavator sales are set to grow 17% YoY in July (but could still be -51% vs. July 2021), which might indicate that local construction activity is bottoming out, though more government support measures are needed for a full-scale recovery, we believe
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales jumped 11% YoY in July (domestic + export), accelerating from the +5% YoY dynamics in June, according to the CME estimates. The figure, however, remained 19% below the 2021 level. Meanwhile, domestic excavator sales are set to grow 17% YoY in July (but could still be -51% vs. July 2021), which might indicate that local construction activity is bottoming out, though more government support measures are needed for a full-scale recovery, we believe
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel