Morning Bites (part 1)
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales dropped 12% YoY in May, after the -1% YoY in April. The numbers remained well below their pre-Covid levels (-19% vs. May 2019), amid the strong appetite for EVs, which keeps pressuring PGM consumption. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector represents some 20% and 17% of the global demand for Pd and Pt, respectively
📌New EV sales in China gained 33% YoY in May, following the +34% YoY in April. In our view, persistently strong local EV demand might add further support to the consumption of the battery metals basket (cobalt, lithium and nickel), as China accounted for ~55% of global EV sales in 1Q24
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales dropped 12% YoY in May, after the -1% YoY in April. The numbers remained well below their pre-Covid levels (-19% vs. May 2019), amid the strong appetite for EVs, which keeps pressuring PGM consumption. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector represents some 20% and 17% of the global demand for Pd and Pt, respectively
📌New EV sales in China gained 33% YoY in May, following the +34% YoY in April. In our view, persistently strong local EV demand might add further support to the consumption of the battery metals basket (cobalt, lithium and nickel), as China accounted for ~55% of global EV sales in 1Q24
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏦 China’s aggregate financing rose 33% YoY in May to CNY 2.07tn after the negative reading in April. Meanwhile, traditional bank loans declined 30% YoY, missing the consensus estimates by 27%. We maintain our view that the new support measures are insufficient to trigger a recovery in China’s property sector. Hence, the demand for industrial metals from local construction is likely to remain limited in 2024
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🏦 China’s aggregate financing rose 33% YoY in May to CNY 2.07tn after the negative reading in April. Meanwhile, traditional bank loans declined 30% YoY, missing the consensus estimates by 27%. We maintain our view that the new support measures are insufficient to trigger a recovery in China’s property sector. Hence, the demand for industrial metals from local construction is likely to remain limited in 2024
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales increased 10% YoY in May, after the 3% YoY rise in April. According to Rapaport, the local diamond market is traditionally slow in the summer, with demand likely to rebound in September. Overall, some recovery in the China and US downstream markets (which jointly represent ~65% of global demand for polished diamonds) might accelerate the diamond industry’s stock release, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales increased 10% YoY in May, after the 3% YoY rise in April. According to Rapaport, the local diamond market is traditionally slow in the summer, with demand likely to rebound in September. Overall, some recovery in the China and US downstream markets (which jointly represent ~65% of global demand for polished diamonds) might accelerate the diamond industry’s stock release, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
❤1👍1
Morning Bites
💍Richemont jewellery segment sales inched down 1% YoY in 1Q24, after the 6% YoY gain in 4Q23, the company reports. Sales growth was seen almost in all regions -- the Americas (+12% YoY), Europe (+5% YoY) and Japan (+24% YoY), except for Asia Pacific (-16% YoY)
🇨🇳 Chow Tai Fook’s 2Q24 LFL sales dropped 33% YoY in the gem-set jewellery segment, in line with the 34% YoY decrease in 1Q24, the company has reported. Particularly, sales in the gem-set segment in Mainland China were 33% lower YoY (vs. the 20% YoY fall in 1Q24), while HK and Macau sales declined 37% YoY (vs. the 27% YoY contraction in 1Q24)
Overall, we keep our cautiously positive view on the diamond sector, given strong US downstream demand (~53% of the global market) and upbeat Chinese jewellery sales (~12%) in May, which might accelerate the industry's stock release in 2024, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Richemont jewellery segment sales inched down 1% YoY in 1Q24, after the 6% YoY gain in 4Q23, the company reports. Sales growth was seen almost in all regions -- the Americas (+12% YoY), Europe (+5% YoY) and Japan (+24% YoY), except for Asia Pacific (-16% YoY)
🇨🇳 Chow Tai Fook’s 2Q24 LFL sales dropped 33% YoY in the gem-set jewellery segment, in line with the 34% YoY decrease in 1Q24, the company has reported. Particularly, sales in the gem-set segment in Mainland China were 33% lower YoY (vs. the 20% YoY fall in 1Q24), while HK and Macau sales declined 37% YoY (vs. the 27% YoY contraction in 1Q24)
Overall, we keep our cautiously positive view on the diamond sector, given strong US downstream demand (~53% of the global market) and upbeat Chinese jewellery sales (~12%) in May, which might accelerate the industry's stock release in 2024, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports rose 4% YoY in May to USD 1.17bn, reversing from the -15% YoY in April. In terms of volumes, net imports were up 36% YoY to 8.6mnct. Meanwhile, India’s polished diamond net exports were down 19% YoY (vs. -15% YoY in April). Synthetic rough diamond net imports also increased, gaining 16% YoY, after the 19% YoY rise in April. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 5% in May. On our numbers, the Indian midstream remains in the stock accumulation zone
We note that India accounts for ~95% of world polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports rose 4% YoY in May to USD 1.17bn, reversing from the -15% YoY in April. In terms of volumes, net imports were up 36% YoY to 8.6mnct. Meanwhile, India’s polished diamond net exports were down 19% YoY (vs. -15% YoY in April). Synthetic rough diamond net imports also increased, gaining 16% YoY, after the 19% YoY rise in April. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 5% in May. On our numbers, the Indian midstream remains in the stock accumulation zone
We note that India accounts for ~95% of world polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations were down 2% YoY in May, after the increase of 12% YoY in April. The dynamics matched our estimates. Meanwhile, the sales were still 24% below the pre-COVID, 2019 level. We reiterate our view that EU car sales are likely to remain sluggish in the near future, given continuously weak local economic activity in the region (as indicated by the EU PMI remaining <50), which might further weigh on PGM consumption
To recap, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2023
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations were down 2% YoY in May, after the increase of 12% YoY in April. The dynamics matched our estimates. Meanwhile, the sales were still 24% below the pre-COVID, 2019 level. We reiterate our view that EU car sales are likely to remain sluggish in the near future, given continuously weak local economic activity in the region (as indicated by the EU PMI remaining <50), which might further weigh on PGM consumption
To recap, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2023
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏭Global primary aluminium output increased 3.4% YoY in May, in line with the +3.5% YoY in April, the International Aluminium Institute reports. Specifically, China’s production (60% of global Al output) rose 4.9% YoY, following improved power supply from the country's hydro-electric system, as well as smelters’ solidified margins. We note that spot Al price has gained ~15% since January 2024 lows, as upbeat demand from China’s new-energy sector (e.g., solar panels and wind turbines) has offset the negative effects on prices from continuous production growth (+4.0% YTD), we believe
In our view, solid consumption dynamics in China and widely expected monetary easing in the US in 2024, might add further support to the Al price
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output increased 3.4% YoY in May, in line with the +3.5% YoY in April, the International Aluminium Institute reports. Specifically, China’s production (60% of global Al output) rose 4.9% YoY, following improved power supply from the country's hydro-electric system, as well as smelters’ solidified margins. We note that spot Al price has gained ~15% since January 2024 lows, as upbeat demand from China’s new-energy sector (e.g., solar panels and wind turbines) has offset the negative effects on prices from continuous production growth (+4.0% YTD), we believe
In our view, solid consumption dynamics in China and widely expected monetary easing in the US in 2024, might add further support to the Al price
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗Global crude steel output rose 2% YoY to 165mnt in May, after the 5% YoY decline in April, the World Steel Association reports. Meanwhile, China’s production (~55% of global crude steel supply) grew 3% YoY, after the -7% YoY seen in April. Ex-China steel output was roughly flat YoY in May. Specifically, last month Russian and US production slid 1% YoY and 2% YoY, respectively, while EU supply increased 2% YoY (after the +1% YoY in April). The growth in Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) was recorded at 4% YoY (the same as in April)
In our view, China’s steel demand will likely remain subdued in 2024, amid the limited stimulus for the property sector, which is not enough to revive consumption, we believe
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗Global crude steel output rose 2% YoY to 165mnt in May, after the 5% YoY decline in April, the World Steel Association reports. Meanwhile, China’s production (~55% of global crude steel supply) grew 3% YoY, after the -7% YoY seen in April. Ex-China steel output was roughly flat YoY in May. Specifically, last month Russian and US production slid 1% YoY and 2% YoY, respectively, while EU supply increased 2% YoY (after the +1% YoY in April). The growth in Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) was recorded at 4% YoY (the same as in April)
In our view, China’s steel demand will likely remain subdued in 2024, amid the limited stimulus for the property sector, which is not enough to revive consumption, we believe
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production increased 1.4% YoY in April, decelerating from the +4.9% YoY in March, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Meanwhile, on a 4mo24 basis, the output was up 4.9% YoY, amid the ramp-up of new mining assets in DR Congo (~11% of global supply). On the demand side, the ICSG notes upbeat refined copper consumption (+4.0% YoY in 4mo24), mainly in China (+6.5% YoY) following rapid expansion of the new-energy sector
Overall, we maintain our positive view on copper, amid growing demand for renewables, as well as surging investments in grid infrastructure - although the spot Cu price is already ~50% above the 90th %-ile marginal costs, on our numbers, supported by favourable market conditions
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🥉Global mined copper production increased 1.4% YoY in April, decelerating from the +4.9% YoY in March, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Meanwhile, on a 4mo24 basis, the output was up 4.9% YoY, amid the ramp-up of new mining assets in DR Congo (~11% of global supply). On the demand side, the ICSG notes upbeat refined copper consumption (+4.0% YoY in 4mo24), mainly in China (+6.5% YoY) following rapid expansion of the new-energy sector
Overall, we maintain our positive view on copper, amid growing demand for renewables, as well as surging investments in grid infrastructure - although the spot Cu price is already ~50% above the 90th %-ile marginal costs, on our numbers, supported by favourable market conditions
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎De Beers has reported sales of USD 315mn at its 5th Cycle in 2024, ~45% below the historical average and 31% softer YoY (vs. -20% YoY at its 4th cycle in 2024). According to company CEO Al Cook, the recent JCK jewellery show confirmed a resurgence in US retailers’ interest in natural diamonds. Overall, De Beers continues to expect a protracted U-shaped recovery in demand
Despite two De Beers price cuts in January and May 2024, sales remain limited, indicating that industry stock is still elevated. However, we reiterate our view that the global diamond market might show the first signs of a recovery in the next 3-6 months, amid strong fundamentals
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎De Beers has reported sales of USD 315mn at its 5th Cycle in 2024, ~45% below the historical average and 31% softer YoY (vs. -20% YoY at its 4th cycle in 2024). According to company CEO Al Cook, the recent JCK jewellery show confirmed a resurgence in US retailers’ interest in natural diamonds. Overall, De Beers continues to expect a protracted U-shaped recovery in demand
Despite two De Beers price cuts in January and May 2024, sales remain limited, indicating that industry stock is still elevated. However, we reiterate our view that the global diamond market might show the first signs of a recovery in the next 3-6 months, amid strong fundamentals
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales inched up 1% YoY in June (domestic + export), vs. the +6% YoY seen in May, per CME estimates. The figure was 31% below the 2021 level. Specifically, domestic excavator sales are likely to gain 20% YoY (but remain -57% vs. June 2021), which might indicate that local construction activity has bottomed out. The recently announced new support measures for China’s property sector, however, are not enough to trigger a full-scale recovery in local construction activity, we believe
We recap that China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales inched up 1% YoY in June (domestic + export), vs. the +6% YoY seen in May, per CME estimates. The figure was 31% below the 2021 level. Specifically, domestic excavator sales are likely to gain 20% YoY (but remain -57% vs. June 2021), which might indicate that local construction activity has bottomed out. The recently announced new support measures for China’s property sector, however, are not enough to trigger a full-scale recovery in local construction activity, we believe
We recap that China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in mid-June was reported at 2.19mnt, down 2.6% from the previous ten days, and 3.4% lower YoY. Local steel inventories were 2.1% higher over the period (+1.3% YoY). In our view, China’s subdued production (based on the CISA data, -1.3% YTD to 20 June) is due to overall soft domestic steel demand, which has also bolstered exports growth. Meanwhile, the recently announced new support measures for China’s property sector are unlikely to trigger a full-scale recovery in local construction activity in 2024, we believe
China represents ~57% of world steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production in mid-June was reported at 2.19mnt, down 2.6% from the previous ten days, and 3.4% lower YoY. Local steel inventories were 2.1% higher over the period (+1.3% YoY). In our view, China’s subdued production (based on the CISA data, -1.3% YTD to 20 June) is due to overall soft domestic steel demand, which has also bolstered exports growth. Meanwhile, the recently announced new support measures for China’s property sector are unlikely to trigger a full-scale recovery in local construction activity in 2024, we believe
China represents ~57% of world steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Russia’s gold output increased 9.6% YoY in May, after the 11.7% YoY gain in April, according to the Rosstat data. The figure was also 6.2% YoY higher on 5mo24 basis, and up 15.4% MoM. Russia’s gold output accounts for ~9% of the world's mined supply
In our view, at spot gold is still trading marginally above its fundamentally reasonable level (USD 2,200-2,300/oz for 2024), driven by persistently strong demand from global central banks and the widely expected US Fed funds rate cut in 2024. Furthermore, in May, global ETFs raised their holdings for the first time in 12 months, which injected some positive sentiment into the gold market
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
📈Russia’s gold output increased 9.6% YoY in May, after the 11.7% YoY gain in April, according to the Rosstat data. The figure was also 6.2% YoY higher on 5mo24 basis, and up 15.4% MoM. Russia’s gold output accounts for ~9% of the world's mined supply
In our view, at spot gold is still trading marginally above its fundamentally reasonable level (USD 2,200-2,300/oz for 2024), driven by persistently strong demand from global central banks and the widely expected US Fed funds rate cut in 2024. Furthermore, in May, global ETFs raised their holdings for the first time in 12 months, which injected some positive sentiment into the gold market
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 1)
📈China’s output of aluminium products rose 10% YoY to 5.9mnt in May, accelerating from the +8% YoY in April. Given the persistently strong demand for Al in China (~60% of global consumption), bolstered by the rapid expansion of the new energy sector, we maintain our positive long-term view on aluminium
🥉Chinese output of copper products fell 12% YoY in May to 1.8mnt, vs. the -4% YoY in April. Despite some slowdown in consumption, the demand trends remain strong, while global copper visible inventories are close to their historical lows. Furthermore, the widely expected monetary easing in the US in 2024 might add further positives to sentiment on the red metal's price
China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
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📈China’s output of aluminium products rose 10% YoY to 5.9mnt in May, accelerating from the +8% YoY in April. Given the persistently strong demand for Al in China (~60% of global consumption), bolstered by the rapid expansion of the new energy sector, we maintain our positive long-term view on aluminium
🥉Chinese output of copper products fell 12% YoY in May to 1.8mnt, vs. the -4% YoY in April. Despite some slowdown in consumption, the demand trends remain strong, while global copper visible inventories are close to their historical lows. Furthermore, the widely expected monetary easing in the US in 2024 might add further positives to sentiment on the red metal's price
China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎Petra Diamonds has revised down its production targets, according to the miner’s Investor Day presentation. It now expects to produce 2.8-3.1mnct in fiscal 2025 (ends on 30 June 2025) and 2.9-3.3mnct in fiscal 2026. This represents a reduction of ~20% from previous indications, reflecting Petra’s plan to reduce operating costs. On our numbers, small players are breakeven or loss making at current prices, which has already led to the supply response
At the same time, a further improvement in consumer sentiment in the US (53% of world polished demand) might trigger a recovery in the global diamond market in the next 3-6 months, amid the strong fundamentals, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎Petra Diamonds has revised down its production targets, according to the miner’s Investor Day presentation. It now expects to produce 2.8-3.1mnct in fiscal 2025 (ends on 30 June 2025) and 2.9-3.3mnct in fiscal 2026. This represents a reduction of ~20% from previous indications, reflecting Petra’s plan to reduce operating costs. On our numbers, small players are breakeven or loss making at current prices, which has already led to the supply response
At the same time, a further improvement in consumer sentiment in the US (53% of world polished demand) might trigger a recovery in the global diamond market in the next 3-6 months, amid the strong fundamentals, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
🇨🇳China’s grid infrastructure investment jumped 14% YoY in May, following the +47% YoY in April, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. On the 5mo24 basis, investments were up 22% YoY, and were also 31% above the 5mo20-23 average. In our view, this might be one of the key factors behind the recent rally in copper and aluminium prices, as the grid accounts for 10-15% of Cu and Al consumption in China, on our numbers
Overall, the data underpins China's plans to expand local infrastructure in order to match the growing installations of renewable energy. We do not expect the dynamics to slow in the coming years and keep our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the global clean energy transition in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇨🇳China’s grid infrastructure investment jumped 14% YoY in May, following the +47% YoY in April, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. On the 5mo24 basis, investments were up 22% YoY, and were also 31% above the 5mo20-23 average. In our view, this might be one of the key factors behind the recent rally in copper and aluminium prices, as the grid accounts for 10-15% of Cu and Al consumption in China, on our numbers
Overall, the data underpins China's plans to expand local infrastructure in order to match the growing installations of renewable energy. We do not expect the dynamics to slow in the coming years and keep our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the global clean energy transition in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏦 Global central banks purchased net 10t of gold in May, vs. the revised +23t in April, marking the twelfth consecutive month of reserves accumulation, the World Gold Council (WGC) reports. The major contributors were Poland (+10t) and Turkey (+8t), while only Kazakhstan has sold a notable amount (11t). According to the recent WGC poll, CB managers intend to increase gold holdings further within the next 12 months, despite soaring yellow metal prices
We maintain our view that the fundamentally reasonable gold price is USD 2,200-2,300/oz for 2024. Meanwhile, at spot, the precious metal’s price has exceeded this level, following persistently strong demand from global central banks and the widely expected US Fed funds rate cut in 2024
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏦 Global central banks purchased net 10t of gold in May, vs. the revised +23t in April, marking the twelfth consecutive month of reserves accumulation, the World Gold Council (WGC) reports. The major contributors were Poland (+10t) and Turkey (+8t), while only Kazakhstan has sold a notable amount (11t). According to the recent WGC poll, CB managers intend to increase gold holdings further within the next 12 months, despite soaring yellow metal prices
We maintain our view that the fundamentally reasonable gold price is USD 2,200-2,300/oz for 2024. Meanwhile, at spot, the precious metal’s price has exceeded this level, following persistently strong demand from global central banks and the widely expected US Fed funds rate cut in 2024
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in June. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped to 45.8 (vs. 47.3 in May). Meanwhile, the US ISM manufacturing PMI remained in the negative zone at 48.5 in June (vs. the consensus estimate of 49.1)
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China was unchanged at 49.5, in-line with the market estimates. Simultaneously, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was reported at 51.8 (vs. the forecasts of 51.2)
🇮🇳 Indian manufacturing PMI remained near record highs at 58.3 (vs. 57.5 in May), indicating continuously strong business environment
❗️Although US and EU PMIs were weak in June (remaining below the 50.0 waterline), Chinese and Indian PMIs dynamics were strong. In our view, this implies improving sentiment in the Asian manufacturing sectors — a positive factor for the industrial metals consumption (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper)
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in June. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped to 45.8 (vs. 47.3 in May). Meanwhile, the US ISM manufacturing PMI remained in the negative zone at 48.5 in June (vs. the consensus estimate of 49.1)
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China was unchanged at 49.5, in-line with the market estimates. Simultaneously, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was reported at 51.8 (vs. the forecasts of 51.2)
🇮🇳 Indian manufacturing PMI remained near record highs at 58.3 (vs. 57.5 in May), indicating continuously strong business environment
❗️Although US and EU PMIs were weak in June (remaining below the 50.0 waterline), Chinese and Indian PMIs dynamics were strong. In our view, this implies improving sentiment in the Asian manufacturing sectors — a positive factor for the industrial metals consumption (e.g. steel, aluminum and copper)
#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports