Morning Bites
🚘 New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany inched down 2% YoY in May, after the 12% YoY growth in April. The figure also remained materially below the pre-COVID level (-26% vs. May 2019). Specifically, in Germany and Italy, car sales were 29% lower than the same month in 2019, while registrations in France and Spain were 27% and 24% weaker, respectively. UK car sales dropped 20% YoY
Given these five countries represented >70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2023, local car sales have likely remained subdued in May
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘 New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany inched down 2% YoY in May, after the 12% YoY growth in April. The figure also remained materially below the pre-COVID level (-26% vs. May 2019). Specifically, in Germany and Italy, car sales were 29% lower than the same month in 2019, while registrations in France and Spain were 27% and 24% weaker, respectively. UK car sales dropped 20% YoY
Given these five countries represented >70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2023, local car sales have likely remained subdued in May
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output jumped 17% YoY in April, reversing from the revised 2% YoY decline in March, according to official statistics. The country’s gold production inched down 2% YoY, after the revised decline of 4% YoY in March. Despite the announced job cuts by major SA PGM miners Sibanye, Impala and Amplats, local production dynamics remain solid. Unfavourable market conditions, however, might weigh on production in 2024, we believe, amid subdued PGM demand from the automotive sector, persistent inflationary pressures in key economies (e.g. the US and EU) and the growing appetite for EVs globally
To recap, SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of global gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output jumped 17% YoY in April, reversing from the revised 2% YoY decline in March, according to official statistics. The country’s gold production inched down 2% YoY, after the revised decline of 4% YoY in March. Despite the announced job cuts by major SA PGM miners Sibanye, Impala and Amplats, local production dynamics remain solid. Unfavourable market conditions, however, might weigh on production in 2024, we believe, amid subdued PGM demand from the automotive sector, persistent inflationary pressures in key economies (e.g. the US and EU) and the growing appetite for EVs globally
To recap, SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of global gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Signet has reported a YoY drop of 8.9% in same-store sales in 1Q24 (February-April), after the -9.6% YoY in 4Q23. The retailer’s press release indicates that same-store sales in North America shrank 9.2% YoY, while proceeds from the international segment were down 3.2% YoY. According to Signet CEO Virginia Drosos, despite the weak beginning to the quarter, the company saw a notable improvement in sentiment in 1Q24, which was especially strong in May
Overall, we expect the positive momentum mentioned by the CEO to persist, as we maintain our cautiously upbeat view on the diamond sector. We think it might show the first signs of a recovery in the coming 3-6 months
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
💍Signet has reported a YoY drop of 8.9% in same-store sales in 1Q24 (February-April), after the -9.6% YoY in 4Q23. The retailer’s press release indicates that same-store sales in North America shrank 9.2% YoY, while proceeds from the international segment were down 3.2% YoY. According to Signet CEO Virginia Drosos, despite the weak beginning to the quarter, the company saw a notable improvement in sentiment in 1Q24, which was especially strong in May
Overall, we expect the positive momentum mentioned by the CEO to persist, as we maintain our cautiously upbeat view on the diamond sector. We think it might show the first signs of a recovery in the coming 3-6 months
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for May (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output rose 3% YoY in May, reversing from the -7% YoY in April. However, production remained 1% lower YoY in 5mo24, amid sluggish domestic demand. China represents ~57% of global steel supply
🏢China's property sales fell 16% YoY in May (after the -14% YoY in April), and were 54% below the 2021 level. Floor space starts were down 23% YoY in May (vs. -12% YoY in April), and were -68% vs. 2021. Personal mortgage loans came in 42% lower YoY (vs. -36% in April), while property completions dropped 18% YoY (vs. -15% YoY). As we have noted previously, the recently announced support measures are not enough to revive the local property sector. Hence, the demand for industrial metals from China's construction is likely to remain subdued in 2024
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output rose 3% YoY in May, reversing from the -7% YoY in April. However, production remained 1% lower YoY in 5mo24, amid sluggish domestic demand. China represents ~57% of global steel supply
🏢China's property sales fell 16% YoY in May (after the -14% YoY in April), and were 54% below the 2021 level. Floor space starts were down 23% YoY in May (vs. -12% YoY in April), and were -68% vs. 2021. Personal mortgage loans came in 42% lower YoY (vs. -36% in April), while property completions dropped 18% YoY (vs. -15% YoY). As we have noted previously, the recently announced support measures are not enough to revive the local property sector. Hence, the demand for industrial metals from China's construction is likely to remain subdued in 2024
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-June was reported at 2.24mnt, up 3.1% from the previous ten days, and +0.5% YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories were 10.4% higher over the period (and +1.8% YoY). In our view, China’s subdued production (based on CISA data, -1.1% YTD until June 10) is due to overall sluggish domestic steel demand, which has also led to growth in exports
China represents ~57% of world steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-June was reported at 2.24mnt, up 3.1% from the previous ten days, and +0.5% YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories were 10.4% higher over the period (and +1.8% YoY). In our view, China’s subdued production (based on CISA data, -1.1% YTD until June 10) is due to overall sluggish domestic steel demand, which has also led to growth in exports
China represents ~57% of world steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 3)
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output dropped 8% YoY in April, after the flat YoY dynamics seen in March, as follows from the MINEM data. The decline is associated with maintenance works, as well as lower ore grades at some assets (e.g., output at Cerro Verde fell 5% YoY in April). Overall, the joint production of Chile and Peru (~38% of global Cu supply) fell 4% YoY in April, the sharpest decline since August 2022
We remind readers that the Peruvian government plans to boost domestic Cu supply 9% YoY in 2024, after the +13% YoY in 2023, while Peru standalone accounts for ~12% of global Cu supply
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output dropped 8% YoY in April, after the flat YoY dynamics seen in March, as follows from the MINEM data. The decline is associated with maintenance works, as well as lower ore grades at some assets (e.g., output at Cerro Verde fell 5% YoY in April). Overall, the joint production of Chile and Peru (~38% of global Cu supply) fell 4% YoY in April, the sharpest decline since August 2022
We remind readers that the Peruvian government plans to boost domestic Cu supply 9% YoY in 2024, after the +13% YoY in 2023, while Peru standalone accounts for ~12% of global Cu supply
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales dropped 12% YoY in May, after the -1% YoY in April. The numbers remained well below their pre-Covid levels (-19% vs. May 2019), amid the strong appetite for EVs, which keeps pressuring PGM consumption. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector represents some 20% and 17% of the global demand for Pd and Pt, respectively
📌New EV sales in China gained 33% YoY in May, following the +34% YoY in April. In our view, persistently strong local EV demand might add further support to the consumption of the battery metals basket (cobalt, lithium and nickel), as China accounted for ~55% of global EV sales in 1Q24
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales dropped 12% YoY in May, after the -1% YoY in April. The numbers remained well below their pre-Covid levels (-19% vs. May 2019), amid the strong appetite for EVs, which keeps pressuring PGM consumption. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector represents some 20% and 17% of the global demand for Pd and Pt, respectively
📌New EV sales in China gained 33% YoY in May, following the +34% YoY in April. In our view, persistently strong local EV demand might add further support to the consumption of the battery metals basket (cobalt, lithium and nickel), as China accounted for ~55% of global EV sales in 1Q24
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏦 China’s aggregate financing rose 33% YoY in May to CNY 2.07tn after the negative reading in April. Meanwhile, traditional bank loans declined 30% YoY, missing the consensus estimates by 27%. We maintain our view that the new support measures are insufficient to trigger a recovery in China’s property sector. Hence, the demand for industrial metals from local construction is likely to remain limited in 2024
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🏦 China’s aggregate financing rose 33% YoY in May to CNY 2.07tn after the negative reading in April. Meanwhile, traditional bank loans declined 30% YoY, missing the consensus estimates by 27%. We maintain our view that the new support measures are insufficient to trigger a recovery in China’s property sector. Hence, the demand for industrial metals from local construction is likely to remain limited in 2024
China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 57% and 61% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales increased 10% YoY in May, after the 3% YoY rise in April. According to Rapaport, the local diamond market is traditionally slow in the summer, with demand likely to rebound in September. Overall, some recovery in the China and US downstream markets (which jointly represent ~65% of global demand for polished diamonds) might accelerate the diamond industry’s stock release, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales increased 10% YoY in May, after the 3% YoY rise in April. According to Rapaport, the local diamond market is traditionally slow in the summer, with demand likely to rebound in September. Overall, some recovery in the China and US downstream markets (which jointly represent ~65% of global demand for polished diamonds) might accelerate the diamond industry’s stock release, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
❤1👍1
Morning Bites
💍Richemont jewellery segment sales inched down 1% YoY in 1Q24, after the 6% YoY gain in 4Q23, the company reports. Sales growth was seen almost in all regions -- the Americas (+12% YoY), Europe (+5% YoY) and Japan (+24% YoY), except for Asia Pacific (-16% YoY)
🇨🇳 Chow Tai Fook’s 2Q24 LFL sales dropped 33% YoY in the gem-set jewellery segment, in line with the 34% YoY decrease in 1Q24, the company has reported. Particularly, sales in the gem-set segment in Mainland China were 33% lower YoY (vs. the 20% YoY fall in 1Q24), while HK and Macau sales declined 37% YoY (vs. the 27% YoY contraction in 1Q24)
Overall, we keep our cautiously positive view on the diamond sector, given strong US downstream demand (~53% of the global market) and upbeat Chinese jewellery sales (~12%) in May, which might accelerate the industry's stock release in 2024, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Richemont jewellery segment sales inched down 1% YoY in 1Q24, after the 6% YoY gain in 4Q23, the company reports. Sales growth was seen almost in all regions -- the Americas (+12% YoY), Europe (+5% YoY) and Japan (+24% YoY), except for Asia Pacific (-16% YoY)
🇨🇳 Chow Tai Fook’s 2Q24 LFL sales dropped 33% YoY in the gem-set jewellery segment, in line with the 34% YoY decrease in 1Q24, the company has reported. Particularly, sales in the gem-set segment in Mainland China were 33% lower YoY (vs. the 20% YoY fall in 1Q24), while HK and Macau sales declined 37% YoY (vs. the 27% YoY contraction in 1Q24)
Overall, we keep our cautiously positive view on the diamond sector, given strong US downstream demand (~53% of the global market) and upbeat Chinese jewellery sales (~12%) in May, which might accelerate the industry's stock release in 2024, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports rose 4% YoY in May to USD 1.17bn, reversing from the -15% YoY in April. In terms of volumes, net imports were up 36% YoY to 8.6mnct. Meanwhile, India’s polished diamond net exports were down 19% YoY (vs. -15% YoY in April). Synthetic rough diamond net imports also increased, gaining 16% YoY, after the 19% YoY rise in April. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 5% in May. On our numbers, the Indian midstream remains in the stock accumulation zone
We note that India accounts for ~95% of world polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports rose 4% YoY in May to USD 1.17bn, reversing from the -15% YoY in April. In terms of volumes, net imports were up 36% YoY to 8.6mnct. Meanwhile, India’s polished diamond net exports were down 19% YoY (vs. -15% YoY in April). Synthetic rough diamond net imports also increased, gaining 16% YoY, after the 19% YoY rise in April. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 5% in May. On our numbers, the Indian midstream remains in the stock accumulation zone
We note that India accounts for ~95% of world polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations were down 2% YoY in May, after the increase of 12% YoY in April. The dynamics matched our estimates. Meanwhile, the sales were still 24% below the pre-COVID, 2019 level. We reiterate our view that EU car sales are likely to remain sluggish in the near future, given continuously weak local economic activity in the region (as indicated by the EU PMI remaining <50), which might further weigh on PGM consumption
To recap, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2023
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations were down 2% YoY in May, after the increase of 12% YoY in April. The dynamics matched our estimates. Meanwhile, the sales were still 24% below the pre-COVID, 2019 level. We reiterate our view that EU car sales are likely to remain sluggish in the near future, given continuously weak local economic activity in the region (as indicated by the EU PMI remaining <50), which might further weigh on PGM consumption
To recap, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 30% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2023
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏭Global primary aluminium output increased 3.4% YoY in May, in line with the +3.5% YoY in April, the International Aluminium Institute reports. Specifically, China’s production (60% of global Al output) rose 4.9% YoY, following improved power supply from the country's hydro-electric system, as well as smelters’ solidified margins. We note that spot Al price has gained ~15% since January 2024 lows, as upbeat demand from China’s new-energy sector (e.g., solar panels and wind turbines) has offset the negative effects on prices from continuous production growth (+4.0% YTD), we believe
In our view, solid consumption dynamics in China and widely expected monetary easing in the US in 2024, might add further support to the Al price
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output increased 3.4% YoY in May, in line with the +3.5% YoY in April, the International Aluminium Institute reports. Specifically, China’s production (60% of global Al output) rose 4.9% YoY, following improved power supply from the country's hydro-electric system, as well as smelters’ solidified margins. We note that spot Al price has gained ~15% since January 2024 lows, as upbeat demand from China’s new-energy sector (e.g., solar panels and wind turbines) has offset the negative effects on prices from continuous production growth (+4.0% YTD), we believe
In our view, solid consumption dynamics in China and widely expected monetary easing in the US in 2024, might add further support to the Al price
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗Global crude steel output rose 2% YoY to 165mnt in May, after the 5% YoY decline in April, the World Steel Association reports. Meanwhile, China’s production (~55% of global crude steel supply) grew 3% YoY, after the -7% YoY seen in April. Ex-China steel output was roughly flat YoY in May. Specifically, last month Russian and US production slid 1% YoY and 2% YoY, respectively, while EU supply increased 2% YoY (after the +1% YoY in April). The growth in Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) was recorded at 4% YoY (the same as in April)
In our view, China’s steel demand will likely remain subdued in 2024, amid the limited stimulus for the property sector, which is not enough to revive consumption, we believe
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗Global crude steel output rose 2% YoY to 165mnt in May, after the 5% YoY decline in April, the World Steel Association reports. Meanwhile, China’s production (~55% of global crude steel supply) grew 3% YoY, after the -7% YoY seen in April. Ex-China steel output was roughly flat YoY in May. Specifically, last month Russian and US production slid 1% YoY and 2% YoY, respectively, while EU supply increased 2% YoY (after the +1% YoY in April). The growth in Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) was recorded at 4% YoY (the same as in April)
In our view, China’s steel demand will likely remain subdued in 2024, amid the limited stimulus for the property sector, which is not enough to revive consumption, we believe
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production increased 1.4% YoY in April, decelerating from the +4.9% YoY in March, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Meanwhile, on a 4mo24 basis, the output was up 4.9% YoY, amid the ramp-up of new mining assets in DR Congo (~11% of global supply). On the demand side, the ICSG notes upbeat refined copper consumption (+4.0% YoY in 4mo24), mainly in China (+6.5% YoY) following rapid expansion of the new-energy sector
Overall, we maintain our positive view on copper, amid growing demand for renewables, as well as surging investments in grid infrastructure - although the spot Cu price is already ~50% above the 90th %-ile marginal costs, on our numbers, supported by favourable market conditions
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🥉Global mined copper production increased 1.4% YoY in April, decelerating from the +4.9% YoY in March, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. Meanwhile, on a 4mo24 basis, the output was up 4.9% YoY, amid the ramp-up of new mining assets in DR Congo (~11% of global supply). On the demand side, the ICSG notes upbeat refined copper consumption (+4.0% YoY in 4mo24), mainly in China (+6.5% YoY) following rapid expansion of the new-energy sector
Overall, we maintain our positive view on copper, amid growing demand for renewables, as well as surging investments in grid infrastructure - although the spot Cu price is already ~50% above the 90th %-ile marginal costs, on our numbers, supported by favourable market conditions
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper