Agnico Eagle 4Q23 results - meet expectations
📝Agnico Eagle's 4Q23 revenues were slightly ahead of the consensus (+3%) and us (+5%), amid higher sales volumes. Meanwhile, adj. EBITDA roughly met market expectations (+2% vs. the consensus and -1% vs. us), as cost pressures were slightly softer than we had anticipated
📈The gold miner's 4Q23 AISC grew ~1% QoQ (flat YoY) to USD 1,227/oz; the figure for FY23 was at USD 1,179/oz. Regarding the 2024 level, the miner expects AISC of USD 1,200-1,250/oz (up 2-6% YoY)
⛏Agnico also provided its production outlook for 2024: payable gold output is expected at 3.35-3.55mnoz (flat YoY)
💰The BoD declared a 4Q cash dividend of USD 0.40/share, which implies a quarterly yield of some 0.9%
📌At spot, we expect Agnico Eagle's 1Q24F EBITDA to be rather flat QoQ, amid potentially stable gold sales volumes
#AEM #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/AEM_US/
📝Agnico Eagle's 4Q23 revenues were slightly ahead of the consensus (+3%) and us (+5%), amid higher sales volumes. Meanwhile, adj. EBITDA roughly met market expectations (+2% vs. the consensus and -1% vs. us), as cost pressures were slightly softer than we had anticipated
📈The gold miner's 4Q23 AISC grew ~1% QoQ (flat YoY) to USD 1,227/oz; the figure for FY23 was at USD 1,179/oz. Regarding the 2024 level, the miner expects AISC of USD 1,200-1,250/oz (up 2-6% YoY)
⛏Agnico also provided its production outlook for 2024: payable gold output is expected at 3.35-3.55mnoz (flat YoY)
💰The BoD declared a 4Q cash dividend of USD 0.40/share, which implies a quarterly yield of some 0.9%
📌At spot, we expect Agnico Eagle's 1Q24F EBITDA to be rather flat QoQ, amid potentially stable gold sales volumes
#AEM #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/AEM_US/
Week ahead data releases in M&M
This week, many global M&M names are slated to report their financials. Meanwhile, we believe that the consensus is slightly too bearish in its EBITDA forecasts for large miners, such as Rio Tinto, Glencore, Vale and Anglo American
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
This week, many global M&M names are slated to report their financials. Meanwhile, we believe that the consensus is slightly too bearish in its EBITDA forecasts for large miners, such as Rio Tinto, Glencore, Vale and Anglo American
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites
💎Petra Diamonds’ LFL rough prices rose 4% at its February tender, vs. the December auction, according to a company statement. The miner’s rough diamond prices increased across all sizes, but in the >5ct categories they generally showed flat dynamics. However, in the 1-4 tenders of fiscal 2024 (held in July 2023 - February 2024), Petra’s average LFL prices were still 9% YoY lower. Although the news is slightly positive for sentiment, we reiterate our view that the global diamond market might remain stressed for the next 3-9 months amid the industry's still elevated inventories
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎Petra Diamonds’ LFL rough prices rose 4% at its February tender, vs. the December auction, according to a company statement. The miner’s rough diamond prices increased across all sizes, but in the >5ct categories they generally showed flat dynamics. However, in the 1-4 tenders of fiscal 2024 (held in July 2023 - February 2024), Petra’s average LFL prices were still 9% YoY lower. Although the news is slightly positive for sentiment, we reiterate our view that the global diamond market might remain stressed for the next 3-9 months amid the industry's still elevated inventories
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Anglo American Platinum 2H23 results - EBITDA remains weak
📝Amplat's 2H23 revenues beat our estimates by 17% (but were roughly in-line with consensus), mostly amid higher third party concentrate sales than we had anticipated. However, EBITDA was disappointing (-22% vs. the consensus, and -15% vs. us), amid elevated cost pressures in the POC segment and an SG&A one-off
📈The PGM miner's 3E AISC rose 3% YoY to USD 1,136/oz in 2023. Regarding 2024, management sees AISC at ~USD 1,050/oz (-7% YoY)
⛏Amplats also reiterated its refined PGM production guidance at 3.3-3.7mnoz in 2024 (down 3-13% YoY). The figure is expected to decline to 3.0-3.4mnoz in 2025
💰The BoD has declared a final dividend of ZAR 9.3/sh., implying some ~1.2% yield
📌At spot, we expect Amplat's 1H24F EBITDA to be notably weaker HoH amid potentially lower sales volumes and subdued metals prices (current Pd prices are 26% lower vs. 2H23 avg.)
#AMS #PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/company/AMS_SJ/
📝Amplat's 2H23 revenues beat our estimates by 17% (but were roughly in-line with consensus), mostly amid higher third party concentrate sales than we had anticipated. However, EBITDA was disappointing (-22% vs. the consensus, and -15% vs. us), amid elevated cost pressures in the POC segment and an SG&A one-off
📈The PGM miner's 3E AISC rose 3% YoY to USD 1,136/oz in 2023. Regarding 2024, management sees AISC at ~USD 1,050/oz (-7% YoY)
⛏Amplats also reiterated its refined PGM production guidance at 3.3-3.7mnoz in 2024 (down 3-13% YoY). The figure is expected to decline to 3.0-3.4mnoz in 2025
💰The BoD has declared a final dividend of ZAR 9.3/sh., implying some ~1.2% yield
📌At spot, we expect Amplat's 1H24F EBITDA to be notably weaker HoH amid potentially lower sales volumes and subdued metals prices (current Pd prices are 26% lower vs. 2H23 avg.)
#AMS #PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/company/AMS_SJ/
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 19% YoY in January (domestic + export), after the 1% YoY decline in December (mostly due to the low base effect), according to the CCMA data. Although the figure was materially above the consensus estimates (+7% YoY), sales were still ~40% below the January 2021 level. Meanwhile, the growth was fully driven by domestic sales (+58% YoY from the low base, but -66% vs. January 2021), while exports inched down 1% YoY. In our view, record high liquidity inflows in China, in addition to various new economic stimuli, might support the country’s depressed construction sector and, hence, raise the demand for industrial metals in 2024
To recap, China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 19% YoY in January (domestic + export), after the 1% YoY decline in December (mostly due to the low base effect), according to the CCMA data. Although the figure was materially above the consensus estimates (+7% YoY), sales were still ~40% below the January 2021 level. Meanwhile, the growth was fully driven by domestic sales (+58% YoY from the low base, but -66% vs. January 2021), while exports inched down 1% YoY. In our view, record high liquidity inflows in China, in addition to various new economic stimuli, might support the country’s depressed construction sector and, hence, raise the demand for industrial metals in 2024
To recap, China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
⛏Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) plans to cut 17% of its workforce, due to low PGM prices, according to a company report. The restructuring is to affect some 3,700 jobs, while 620 agreements with contractors or service providers to be reviewed. Overall, the news is in-line with Anglo American's lowered production guidance for 2024-25, as well as similar actions of other major South African PGM miners (e.g. Sibanye and Impala) that have recently announced job cuts
In last two years the demand for PGMs (mainly from the auto sector) has been weak, while supply remained generally stable, which triggered drops in Pd and Pt prices (-40% YoY and -15% YoY, respectively, in 2023). Overall, we believe that the supply response is not over yet, which might be a favourable factor for PGM prices in 2024
#AMS #PGM
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
⛏Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) plans to cut 17% of its workforce, due to low PGM prices, according to a company report. The restructuring is to affect some 3,700 jobs, while 620 agreements with contractors or service providers to be reviewed. Overall, the news is in-line with Anglo American's lowered production guidance for 2024-25, as well as similar actions of other major South African PGM miners (e.g. Sibanye and Impala) that have recently announced job cuts
In last two years the demand for PGMs (mainly from the auto sector) has been weak, while supply remained generally stable, which triggered drops in Pd and Pt prices (-40% YoY and -15% YoY, respectively, in 2023). Overall, we believe that the supply response is not over yet, which might be a favourable factor for PGM prices in 2024
#AMS #PGM
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
BHP 2H23 results - another weak release
📝BHP's CY 2H23 revenues broadly met both market and our expectations (-2% vs. the consensus and +4% vs. us). However, EBITDA was lower than forecast (-9% vs. the consensus and -7% vs. us) due to higher inflationary pressures in the coal and copper segments than we had anticipated
⛏The miner reiterated its fiscal year 2024 (ends in June 2024) production and cost guidance across all assets, except for coal. BHP now expects fiscal 2024 coal output at 46-50mnt (down 14-21% YoY), as the sale of the Blackwater and Daunia mines is on track to be completed by April 2024
💰The BoD declared an interim dividend of USD 0.72/sh., implying a DY of some 2.4%
📌On our numbers, at spot, BHP's CY 1H24F EBITDA will grow in the low double-digits HoH, given the guided copper production increase from the South Australia and Pampa Norte mines
#BHP #iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com/company/BHP_AU/
📝BHP's CY 2H23 revenues broadly met both market and our expectations (-2% vs. the consensus and +4% vs. us). However, EBITDA was lower than forecast (-9% vs. the consensus and -7% vs. us) due to higher inflationary pressures in the coal and copper segments than we had anticipated
⛏The miner reiterated its fiscal year 2024 (ends in June 2024) production and cost guidance across all assets, except for coal. BHP now expects fiscal 2024 coal output at 46-50mnt (down 14-21% YoY), as the sale of the Blackwater and Daunia mines is on track to be completed by April 2024
💰The BoD declared an interim dividend of USD 0.72/sh., implying a DY of some 2.4%
📌On our numbers, at spot, BHP's CY 1H24F EBITDA will grow in the low double-digits HoH, given the guided copper production increase from the South Australia and Pampa Norte mines
#BHP #iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com/company/BHP_AU/
Morning Bites
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations rose 11% YoY in January, after the one-off 2% YoY decline in December. However, the growth was moderately softer than our estimates amid lower sales in minor EU car markets. Meanwhile, sales were still -17% vs. the pre-COVID, 2019 level. In our view, EU car sales are unlikely to show a robust recovery in the near term, given slow economic activity (as indicated by the persistently weak local PMI data) and ongoing inflationary pressures in the region, which is a negative factor for PGM consumption
To recap, the EU+UK accounted for some 20% and 32% of the world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2022
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations rose 11% YoY in January, after the one-off 2% YoY decline in December. However, the growth was moderately softer than our estimates amid lower sales in minor EU car markets. Meanwhile, sales were still -17% vs. the pre-COVID, 2019 level. In our view, EU car sales are unlikely to show a robust recovery in the near term, given slow economic activity (as indicated by the persistently weak local PMI data) and ongoing inflationary pressures in the region, which is a negative factor for PGM consumption
To recap, the EU+UK accounted for some 20% and 32% of the world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2022
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Rio Tinto 2H23 results - EBITDA in line with estimates
📝Rio Tinto's 2H23 revenues approximately met expectations (+3% vs. the consensus and -1% vs. us). Meanwhile, EBITDA was also in line with the market and us (-2%)
⛏The miner announced its guidance for 2024: iron ore and aluminium production is to remain broadly stable YoY, while refined copper output is to reach 230-260kt (+31-49% YoY), following a smelter rebuild in 2023
💰The company's BoD has declared a final dividend of USD 2.58/sh (~3.9% DY)
📌On our numbers, at spot, Rio Tinto's 1H24F EBITDA will be marginally higher HoH, amid a moderate increase in iron ore and copper prices (+7% and +2%, respectively, vs. the 2H23 average)
#RIO #Iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com/company/RIO_LN/
📝Rio Tinto's 2H23 revenues approximately met expectations (+3% vs. the consensus and -1% vs. us). Meanwhile, EBITDA was also in line with the market and us (-2%)
⛏The miner announced its guidance for 2024: iron ore and aluminium production is to remain broadly stable YoY, while refined copper output is to reach 230-260kt (+31-49% YoY), following a smelter rebuild in 2023
💰The company's BoD has declared a final dividend of USD 2.58/sh (~3.9% DY)
📌On our numbers, at spot, Rio Tinto's 1H24F EBITDA will be marginally higher HoH, amid a moderate increase in iron ore and copper prices (+7% and +2%, respectively, vs. the 2H23 average)
#RIO #Iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com/company/RIO_LN/
👍1
Glencore 2H23 results - another disappointment
📝Glencore's 2H23 revenues missed both the consensus and us (by 5% and 4%, respectively), mostly due to lower copper sales than we had anticipated. As a result, EBITDA also came below expectations (-4% vs. the consensus, and - 7% vs. us)
📈Glencore's net unit cash costs in the copper segment surged 2x YoY (and 12% HoH) to USD 1.63/lb in 2H23 due to a decline in by-product credits, missing the expected normalisation to USD 1.32/lb in 2023
📍The miner’s 2024 copper and coal output are set to remain broadly stable YoY. However, nickel production is to decline 8-18% YoY: Glencore will halt some nickel assets, as the segment became loss-making on EBITDA level
💰 The BoD announced a dividend of USD 0.13/sh (~1.3% DY) to be paid in two equal tranches in 2024
📌At spot, we expect Glencore’s 1H24F EBITDA to be moderately weaker HoH, as current thermal coal prices are 15-20% lower vs. 2H23 avg
#GLEN #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/GLEN_LN/
📝Glencore's 2H23 revenues missed both the consensus and us (by 5% and 4%, respectively), mostly due to lower copper sales than we had anticipated. As a result, EBITDA also came below expectations (-4% vs. the consensus, and - 7% vs. us)
📈Glencore's net unit cash costs in the copper segment surged 2x YoY (and 12% HoH) to USD 1.63/lb in 2H23 due to a decline in by-product credits, missing the expected normalisation to USD 1.32/lb in 2023
📍The miner’s 2024 copper and coal output are set to remain broadly stable YoY. However, nickel production is to decline 8-18% YoY: Glencore will halt some nickel assets, as the segment became loss-making on EBITDA level
💰 The BoD announced a dividend of USD 0.13/sh (~1.3% DY) to be paid in two equal tranches in 2024
📌At spot, we expect Glencore’s 1H24F EBITDA to be moderately weaker HoH, as current thermal coal prices are 15-20% lower vs. 2H23 avg
#GLEN #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/GLEN_LN/
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production during early February was reported at 2.07mnt, up 2.6% from the previous ten days, and +0.4% YoY. On a YTD basis, per the CISA data, output rose 3.6% YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories jumped 23.8% over the period (-16.3% YoY), likely amid seasonally soft demand during the Lunar New Year holidays (10-17 February 2024). In our view, record high liquidity injections in China and the recently announced new support measures for the property sector might bolster domestic construction activity in 2024 and, hence, support the prices of steel products
To recap, China represents ~57% of world steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production during early February was reported at 2.07mnt, up 2.6% from the previous ten days, and +0.4% YoY. On a YTD basis, per the CISA data, output rose 3.6% YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories jumped 23.8% over the period (-16.3% YoY), likely amid seasonally soft demand during the Lunar New Year holidays (10-17 February 2024). In our view, record high liquidity injections in China and the recently announced new support measures for the property sector might bolster domestic construction activity in 2024 and, hence, support the prices of steel products
To recap, China represents ~57% of world steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As reporting season continues apace, several major M&M names are scheduled to release their 4Q23 financials this week. Regarding PGM miners (Impala and Northam), we are more cautious than the consensus. At the same time, we expect SQM to reveal rather upbeat EBITDA figures
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
As reporting season continues apace, several major M&M names are scheduled to release their 4Q23 financials this week. Regarding PGM miners (Impala and Northam), we are more cautious than the consensus. At the same time, we expect SQM to reveal rather upbeat EBITDA figures
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output fell 2% YoY to 148mnt in January, following the 5% YoY drop in December, the World Steel Association reports. Meanwhile, China’s production (52% of global crude steel supply in January) was down 7% YoY, decelerating from the -15% YoY in December. At the same time, ex-China steel output was up 5% YoY. Specifically, Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) continued to grow in January, gaining 7% YoY (after the +10% YoY in December), and Russia’s output inched up 1% YoY. US steel production was broadly flat YoY in January, while EU supply shrank 2% YoY (vs. the +3% YoY in December)
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗Global crude steel output fell 2% YoY to 148mnt in January, following the 5% YoY drop in December, the World Steel Association reports. Meanwhile, China’s production (52% of global crude steel supply in January) was down 7% YoY, decelerating from the -15% YoY in December. At the same time, ex-China steel output was up 5% YoY. Specifically, Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) continued to grow in January, gaining 7% YoY (after the +10% YoY in December), and Russia’s output inched up 1% YoY. US steel production was broadly flat YoY in January, while EU supply shrank 2% YoY (vs. the +3% YoY in December)
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production during mid-February was reported at 2.10mnt, up 1.5% vs. the previous ten days, and 0.4% higher YoY. Local steel inventories recovered 25.7% over the period (-2.8% YoY), after the sharp decline in late January, amid seasonally soft demand during the Chinese New Year holidays (10-17 February). Meanwhile, record high liquidity injections in early 2024 and Beijing’s further efforts to bolster domestic construction activity might support steel products prices this year, we believe
According to CISA estimates, Chinese steel production is set to decline 7% vs. 2023 in 2025, which could affect ~4% of global steel supply, bolstering prices in the medium term. China represents ~57% of world steel output
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production during mid-February was reported at 2.10mnt, up 1.5% vs. the previous ten days, and 0.4% higher YoY. Local steel inventories recovered 25.7% over the period (-2.8% YoY), after the sharp decline in late January, amid seasonally soft demand during the Chinese New Year holidays (10-17 February). Meanwhile, record high liquidity injections in early 2024 and Beijing’s further efforts to bolster domestic construction activity might support steel products prices this year, we believe
According to CISA estimates, Chinese steel production is set to decline 7% vs. 2023 in 2025, which could affect ~4% of global steel supply, bolstering prices in the medium term. China represents ~57% of world steel output
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🥉Global mined copper production increased 0.5% YoY in 2023, reaching 22.1mnt, the International Copper Study Group reports. For December, output fell 1.7% YoY (vs. the +1.1% YoY in November). Although the global 2023 copper production saw significant growth in Peru and D.R. Congo, these dynamics were largely offset by operational constraints in Chile, China, Indonesia, Panama and the US. Furthermore, a recently announced closure of the major Cobre Panama mine by mid-2024 (~2% of global Cu supply), driven by continuous social unrest, might add some stress to the red metal supply in 2024, we believe
As of the end-January 2024, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totalled 217kt (-9.6% YoY), <1% of global refined copper usage in 2023, also equivalent to ~3 days of consumption (vs. ~9 days in 2010-2020)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🥉Global mined copper production increased 0.5% YoY in 2023, reaching 22.1mnt, the International Copper Study Group reports. For December, output fell 1.7% YoY (vs. the +1.1% YoY in November). Although the global 2023 copper production saw significant growth in Peru and D.R. Congo, these dynamics were largely offset by operational constraints in Chile, China, Indonesia, Panama and the US. Furthermore, a recently announced closure of the major Cobre Panama mine by mid-2024 (~2% of global Cu supply), driven by continuous social unrest, might add some stress to the red metal supply in 2024, we believe
As of the end-January 2024, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totalled 217kt (-9.6% YoY), <1% of global refined copper usage in 2023, also equivalent to ~3 days of consumption (vs. ~9 days in 2010-2020)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 3)
💎 De Beers' rough diamond sales fell 40% YoY in 2023 to USD 3.6bn, according to the company's report. Specifically, the miner's rough volumes sold dropped 19% YoY to 24.7mnct, with the average realised price down 25% YoY to USD 147/ct, reflecting an overall worsening of the mix and a 6% decrease in the rough diamond index. Regarding the outlook for 2024, De Beers expects market conditions to remain challenging in the short term, but anticipates the high midstream inventory levels seen in 2023 to decline gradually in 2024 as retailers replenish their stocks. Furthermore, the miner estimates that consumer demand, which is currently stressed, will return to growth into 2025
Overall, the news underpins our view that the global diamond market might remain stressed for the next 3-9 months amid the industry's still elevated inventories
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎 De Beers' rough diamond sales fell 40% YoY in 2023 to USD 3.6bn, according to the company's report. Specifically, the miner's rough volumes sold dropped 19% YoY to 24.7mnct, with the average realised price down 25% YoY to USD 147/ct, reflecting an overall worsening of the mix and a 6% decrease in the rough diamond index. Regarding the outlook for 2024, De Beers expects market conditions to remain challenging in the short term, but anticipates the high midstream inventory levels seen in 2023 to decline gradually in 2024 as retailers replenish their stocks. Furthermore, the miner estimates that consumer demand, which is currently stressed, will return to growth into 2025
Overall, the news underpins our view that the global diamond market might remain stressed for the next 3-9 months amid the industry's still elevated inventories
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output increased 2.4% YoY in January, after the +2.1% YoY in December, the International Aluminium Institute reports. Specifically, China’s output (59% of global Al output) rose 2.8% YoY, following the improved power supply in previously drought-hit parts of the country's hydro-electric system. In our view, potential recovery in construction activity in China (~58% of global primary Al demand in 2022), bolstered by new economic stimulus and record high liquidity injections in early-2024, remains the key trigger for subdued Al prices (with >50% of global Al suppliers breakeven or loss-making at current prices, on our numbers)
To recap, China’s aluminium supply is to rise >2.5% YoY to 42.7mnt this year, according to industry participants, if new projects start up in 3Q24 as planned
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output increased 2.4% YoY in January, after the +2.1% YoY in December, the International Aluminium Institute reports. Specifically, China’s output (59% of global Al output) rose 2.8% YoY, following the improved power supply in previously drought-hit parts of the country's hydro-electric system. In our view, potential recovery in construction activity in China (~58% of global primary Al demand in 2022), bolstered by new economic stimulus and record high liquidity injections in early-2024, remains the key trigger for subdued Al prices (with >50% of global Al suppliers breakeven or loss-making at current prices, on our numbers)
To recap, China’s aluminium supply is to rise >2.5% YoY to 42.7mnt this year, according to industry participants, if new projects start up in 3Q24 as planned
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
Morning Bites (part 1)
📈Russia’s gold output increased 7.0% YoY in January, reversing from the -7.3% YoY in December, according to Rosstat data. Russia’s gold output was down 38.1% MoM, due to seasonal effects. Overall, we keep our positive outlook on gold price performance, as demand from global central banks remains solid, while high cost support levels and potentially lower key rates in the world's top economies (e.g. the EU and US) in 2024 are likely to add further support to the precious metal’s prices, in our view
To recap, Russia accounts for ~9% of the world's mined gold output
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
📈Russia’s gold output increased 7.0% YoY in January, reversing from the -7.3% YoY in December, according to Rosstat data. Russia’s gold output was down 38.1% MoM, due to seasonal effects. Overall, we keep our positive outlook on gold price performance, as demand from global central banks remains solid, while high cost support levels and potentially lower key rates in the world's top economies (e.g. the EU and US) in 2024 are likely to add further support to the precious metal’s prices, in our view
To recap, Russia accounts for ~9% of the world's mined gold output
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
🪨India's annual coal demand is set to add 300mnt by 2030, implying some 25% growth vs. the 2023E level, Reuters reports, citing the Coaltrans India conference. To recap, India imported ~93mnt of coking coal last year (26% of global seaborne market), following exceptionally strong local steel output (~140mnt of steel in 2023, +12% YoY). Meanwhile, the Indian government is targeting a jump in domestic steel production up to 300mnt by 2030: although the forecast seems to us to be overly upbeat, further growth in Indian steel output would be a long-term positive factor for coking coal prices, in our view
#coal
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Coal
🪨India's annual coal demand is set to add 300mnt by 2030, implying some 25% growth vs. the 2023E level, Reuters reports, citing the Coaltrans India conference. To recap, India imported ~93mnt of coking coal last year (26% of global seaborne market), following exceptionally strong local steel output (~140mnt of steel in 2023, +12% YoY). Meanwhile, the Indian government is targeting a jump in domestic steel production up to 300mnt by 2030: although the forecast seems to us to be overly upbeat, further growth in Indian steel output would be a long-term positive factor for coking coal prices, in our view
#coal
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Coal
Morning Bites
🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales figures were down 36% YoY in February (domestic + export), after the one-off 19% YoY gain in January, per CME estimates. The figure was also 52% below the 2021 level. In particular, domestic excavator sales are set to decline 53% YoY (-78% vs. February 2021), remaining broadly flat MoM. The still subdued domestic sales suggest there is still no recovery in the stressed Chinese real estate sector -- and that there will not be in the near future. However, record high liquidity injections in early-2024 and Beijing’s recently announced new support measures for the economy might bolster domestic construction activity this year, we believe
To recap, China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales figures were down 36% YoY in February (domestic + export), after the one-off 19% YoY gain in January, per CME estimates. The figure was also 52% below the 2021 level. In particular, domestic excavator sales are set to decline 53% YoY (-78% vs. February 2021), remaining broadly flat MoM. The still subdued domestic sales suggest there is still no recovery in the stressed Chinese real estate sector -- and that there will not be in the near future. However, record high liquidity injections in early-2024 and Beijing’s recently announced new support measures for the economy might bolster domestic construction activity this year, we believe
To recap, China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Week ahead data releases in M&M
The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several major M&M names are due to release their 4Q/2Н23 financials this week. Generally, we are slightly more bullish than the consensus forecasts on the EBITDA level, except for Fresnillo and Ero Copper
We also await China’s official customs data for February, as well as monthly liquidity injections statistics
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several major M&M names are due to release their 4Q/2Н23 financials this week. Generally, we are slightly more bullish than the consensus forecasts on the EBITDA level, except for Fresnillo and Ero Copper
We also await China’s official customs data for February, as well as monthly liquidity injections statistics
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events